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As we hit the home stretch, here's what's at stake for MAC seeding. Looking at #of losses only for simplicity sake, We currently sit in the 6 seed with 8 losses, tied with Buffalo and 2 GB OU and Toledo for the 4th/5th seed, who each have 6 losses, but we hold the tiebreaker over both teams.

Simply put: we need to win our last 3, and that's certainly do-able (Home vs WMU & UMass, @ EMU). Winning 2 out of 3 all but assures a trip to Cleveland, but it's imperative to avoid Miami, Akron or even Kent in round 1.

If we can win all 3, we are almost certainly in the 4/5 game against (likely) whoever wins the OU/UT game at Savage next weekend. Both OU and UT still have Miami on the schedule so I'm assuming Miami holds serve vs both, and gives at least one of those teams their 8th loss. Ohio also plays UMass and Toledo plays Buffalo so even the winner could end up with 8 losses.

Buffalo goes at Akron this weekend, hopefully giving them their 9th loss.

But that 4/5 spot gives us a real chance to do something in Cleveland, against a first round opponent who we already have a win over this year, and then anything can happen the rest of the way.

After the Saturday 2/28 games, we're all but locked into the 6-seed, but there's still a very real chance we could end up as the 5-seed.

Obviously we would need to beat Eastern on Friday, but if we do that AND Ohio loses their final 2 at UMass & vs Miami, which they will be underdogs in both games, we own the tiebreaker and would play Toledo in the 4/5 game. Sign me up for that.

With a loss at Eastern (or an OU win vs Miami or UMass), we'd still likely be the 6 seed and play Kent unless Central were to upset Akron and then win at Ball St, or Buffalo wins vs EMU and at Toledo. Both of those teams have the tiebreakers vs BG
at Toledo.

Scenario heading into the final game.

We get the 5 seed and play Toledo if:
- BG wins at EMU + OU loss vs Miami

We get the 6 seed and play Kent if:
- BG win at EMU + OU wins vs Miami, OR
- BG loss at EMU + Buffalo loss at Toledo

We get the 7 seed and play Akron if:
- BG loss at EMU + Buffalo wins at Toledo

The 5 seed is optimal, but just avoid facing Akron in the first round.

Falcons finish the season with a win at EMU and will be the 5 seed in Cleveland, playing a third game this year against Toledo on Thursday afternoon at 1:30.

Really got the best case scenario for us. Toledo is beatable and I think we've shown were better than them even if it's close. We also avoid Akron and Kent until the finals. Miami has flirted with disaster and maybe we'll get some luck with an upset in game 1. I'm still not sold we can win two games in Cleveland let alone three but we're here so let's what happens.

Outside of Toledo winning I'm rooting for a 2 bid MAC