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This was on another board and I'm not about to try and break it all down to see if it checks out. It shows how big each and ever game is. Last night we were #2, one loss later, #6. Here it is:

MAC Tourney If Today (02/24/05):

First Round
GM 1: 9. BSU (7-7) at 8. Toledo (8-6)
GM 2: 13. Herd (2-13) at 4. Buffalo (10-6)
GM 3: 12. CMU (3-13) at 5. Ohio (9-6)#@
GM 4: 10. NIU (6-10) at 7. Kent (9-6)#
GM 5: 11. EMU (5-10) at 6. BUGS (9-6)*#@

Quarterfinals (Cleveland)
GM 6: 1. Miami (11-4) – East Champ vs. Winner GM 1
GM 7: Winner GM 2 vs. Winner GM 3
GM 8: 2. WMU (9-6)* – West Champ vs. Winner GM 4
GM 9: 3. Akron (10-5) vs. Winner GM 5

Semifinals (Cleveland)
GM 10: Winner GM 6 vs. Winner GM 7
GM 11: Winner GM 8 vs. Winner GM 9

Finals (Cleveland)
GM 12: Winner GM 10 vs. Winner GM 11

* WMU beat BUGS head-to-head
# Head-to-head: BUGS (2-1), Ohio (2-1), Kent (0-2)
@ BUGS (0-0) vs. #1 Miami, Ohio (1-1); BUGS (0-1) vs. #2 WMU, Ohio (1-0)

Changes since last Week:

Team: Seed 2 Weeks Ago/Seed 1 Week Ago/Seed Today

Miami:1/1/1
WMU: 2/5/2 (Tied #5 record overall)
Ohio: 3/6/5
BUGS: 4/2/6
Toledo: 5/7/8
Kent: 6/8/7
Akron: 7/3/3 (#2 record overall)
Buffalo: 8/4/4 (#3 record overall)
BSU: 9/9/9
NIU: 10/11/10
EMU: 11/10/11
HERD: 12/13/13
CMU: 13/12/12

I hate to be the one to say this, but we could easily end up playing a road game in the first round. Losses to Miami and Western could leave us at 10-8. Six teams with six losses and one with seven. One will end up with the # 2, one will end up playing on the road in the first round. Which means you don't want to end up as the # 8 seed either because you will be playing the one leftover "better" team. Gotta be #4 to #7 to get one of the weaker teams. Of course we just lost to one of those weaker teams last night, so maybe it doesn't matter.