Look at what CBS is predicting. Usually they are more in line over the past few years then the ESPN experts.
http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasket ... ngtheseeds
They have Miami and Buffalo both dancing. Miami vs Florida. Buffalo Vs. Texas Tech and Bob Knight
CBS Bracket Seedings
-
BGSU-Ph.D.
- Fledgling
- Posts: 360
- Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 9:41 am
I can't imagine Buffalo getting in as the second MAC team (assuming they don't win the tourney). Ohio swept them and Kent St. has a more impressive overall resume.
I wish BG didn't blow the last game of the reg. season. My hope was that an impressive run to the MAC title game (win or lose) would make them the second MAC team. Even now, if they beat Miami and then the Kent St - Ohio winner they....oh well, even I with my orange and brown colored glasses have a hard time looking past the Central and, gasp, Oakland losses.
I wish BG didn't blow the last game of the reg. season. My hope was that an impressive run to the MAC title game (win or lose) would make them the second MAC team. Even now, if they beat Miami and then the Kent St - Ohio winner they....oh well, even I with my orange and brown colored glasses have a hard time looking past the Central and, gasp, Oakland losses.
-
BGSU-Ph.D.
- Fledgling
- Posts: 360
- Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 9:41 am
-
orangeandbrown
- Peregrine
- Posts: 3542
- Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 5:00 pm
- Location: Saline, MI
- Contact:
-
Dayons_Den
- aka Joe Bair's Lair
- Posts: 5015
- Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:58 pm
- Location: Baseball Grounds of Jacksonville
- Contact:
-
BGSU-Ph.D.
- Fledgling
- Posts: 360
- Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 9:41 am
-
orangeandbrown
- Peregrine
- Posts: 3542
- Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 5:00 pm
- Location: Saline, MI
- Contact:
NCAA tournament bids are about money and power, and the big conferences have it and want to keep it. We have had seasons where the second team deserved a bid MUCH more than this year and didn't get it.BGSU-Ph.D. wrote:It depends how much stock, if any, the committee puts in the new and not improved RPI. The top teams in the MAC have pretty good ratings right now.
-
Schadenfreude
- Professional tractor puller
- Posts: 6983
- Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2004 7:39 am
- Location: Colorado
Two weeks ago, I thought Miami was an at-large lock. I still think they have a shot, but they've really slid.
Any MAC team with an RPI in the 30s has a chance, i think. Not sure where things stand at the moment, but I thought that category still included Miami and either Akron or Buffalo.
I also think we tend to get too cynical about how money and power influence the NCAA tournament selection process. There have certainly moments when we didn't get the benefit of the doubt we seemed to deserve. But this isn't about money and power -- I mean, CBS is going to fork over its $1.2 billion whether or not a second MAC team makes the tournament. It probably has more to do with the fact that the MAC hasn't been represented on the selection committee in eons.
Want to talk about cynicism and money and power? Let's talk bowl games or the NIT.
Any MAC team with an RPI in the 30s has a chance, i think. Not sure where things stand at the moment, but I thought that category still included Miami and either Akron or Buffalo.
I also think we tend to get too cynical about how money and power influence the NCAA tournament selection process. There have certainly moments when we didn't get the benefit of the doubt we seemed to deserve. But this isn't about money and power -- I mean, CBS is going to fork over its $1.2 billion whether or not a second MAC team makes the tournament. It probably has more to do with the fact that the MAC hasn't been represented on the selection committee in eons.
Want to talk about cynicism and money and power? Let's talk bowl games or the NIT.
-
orangeandbrown
- Peregrine
- Posts: 3542
- Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 5:00 pm
- Location: Saline, MI
- Contact:
No, but the money they do fork over gets divided differently based on who is in the tournament. When we had DD in for a chat a couple years ago, he told us the selection process was driven by money and power for big conferences.Schadenfreude wrote:But this isn't about money and power -- I mean, CBS is going to fork over its $1.2 billion whether or not a second MAC team makes the tournament. It probably has more to do with the fact that the MAC hasn't been represented on the selection committee in eons.
I don't believe, in MAC history, any MAC team was ever a LOCK for an at-large bid.
-
Schadenfreude
- Professional tractor puller
- Posts: 6983
- Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2004 7:39 am
- Location: Colorado
I promised an explanation. Here goes:I heard an excellent explanation once on how Kent State got turned away as a 36 in the RPI a couple years back (the same season Bowling Green had won something like 24 games). I'll post it some time. It almost made sense.
Bowling Green had won a division that year (the East, I think, over Kent State).
Basically, the NCAA committee focused very very closely on Bowling Green. Once it decided we weren't in, they never really got around to considering Kent State, which had an even better RPI.
That makes a bit of sense.
-
Class of 61
- Peregrine
- Posts: 4565
- Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:51 am
- Location: Seven Hills, Ohio 44131
Two many good teams
The problem with getting a 2nd team into the NCAA's, as I see it, is that there are a BUNCH of "GOOD TEAMS" in the MAC this year, with records approaching, if not exceeding 20 wins by the end of the tournament. But we've been so balanced this year, with, at last count 9 of 13 teams over .500, and many of them in the 17-18 win range...and NO TEAM, not even Miami, stands out as an EXCELLENT team, ala KSU of a few years ago, the team that went the Elite 8, after beating BG in the championship game....That BG team, incidentally, definitely deserved a shot at the NCAA's, perhaps more so than some of the very good teams of the prior 2-3 yrs....and got Nothing...except a NIT trip to Utah, to play BYU, which I believe was undefeated at home that year.
So, I'd be surprised, happy, but surprised if we get that 2nd team this year, even though some of the "power conferences" aren't as good as usual (Can you say Big 10?)
So, I'd be surprised, happy, but surprised if we get that 2nd team this year, even though some of the "power conferences" aren't as good as usual (Can you say Big 10?)
Education our Challenge, Excellence our goal. (look it up)
-
BGSU-Ph.D.
- Fledgling
- Posts: 360
- Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 9:41 am
I know the history of the MAC (and BG in particular) getting screwed on Selection Sunday. Still, Joe Lunardi from ESPN has Kent St. as one of the last four out of the tourney. I hope they don't make it, because to do so they would probably have to beat us (BG) in the MAC semifinals. Their record is only OK, but they don't have any really bad losses, they have some "good" losses against Boston College and Southern Illinois (two tourney locks), and they have some good wins against Creighton and at Florida St. (OK, FSU has a losing record, but they play in the ACC and they are usually a good home team). That 6-11 against the top 100 hurts (although to play 17 top 100 teams shows schedule strength, plus some wins in the MAC tourney will improve that). I don't mean to pimp Kent St. I don't like them. But, I think they because of their high RPI and SOS are the MAC's best bet for an at-large (along with Miami).
St. Mary's shouldn't be in the tourney, let alone a "lock." They do have a good overall record and a good conference win against Gonzaga, but really have done nothing else.
Anyway, here is the "mid-major" bubble breakdown from ESPN:
Vermont [23-6 (16-2), RPI: 23, SOS: 104] Downed early-round host Binghamton to bring the conference finals vs. Northeastern back to Burlington. RPI remains bulletproof because of unbeaten home record, but have a hard time seeing committee giving at-large to low-major-conference team that lost three of last six heading into the postseason. Seems unfair. This team can play. Now 3-3 vs RPI Top 50 with Northeastern sneaking in.
Miami (OH) [17-9 (12-6), RPI: 28, SOS: 54] Blew clincher for outright MAC title with awful loss at last-place Marshall, but still got solo title when every 11-6 team lost. Still, at-large status now much more murky. Has great RPI and solid record against RPI Top 50 win.
Buffalo [20-8 (11-7), RPI: 35, SOS: 101] Slipped past Northern Illinois to get Toledo in the MAC quarters. Big win over Akron in regular-season finale put Bulls back in the mix. Whopping 7-8 vs. RPI Top 100.
Northern Iowa [20-10 (11-7), RPI: 37, SOS: 58] Despite very solid computer profile, Panthers may have seen at-large dreams extinguished by surprising MVC quarterfinals loss to SMS. Very little way they can got a nod ahead of So. Illinois, Creighton and WSU now, and MVC's probably not getting four bids.
Kent State [18-11 (11-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 40] Ripped Central Michigan in MAC opening round. Finished tied for second with five other teams at 11-7 in conference. Have better SOS than Akron (season sweep) or Buffalo (split series). Only 6-11 vs. RPI Top 100.
Akron [18-9 (11-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 84] Eased past Eastern Michigan to gain MAC quarters. Loss at Buffalo in finale might hurt. 8-6 vs. RPI Top 100.
Holy Cross [24-5 (13-1), RPI: 45, SOS: 203] Barely escaped Lehigh but moves on to host Patriot finals against Bucknell. 1-3 vs RPI Top 50 and 21 wins outside RPI Top 100 probably mean tourney title is needed, despite good RPI.
Wichita State [20-9 (12-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 101] Creighton winning the MVC probably a good thing for WSU, as SMS doesn't grab precious bid. Shockers will have a very long wait this week. Finished ahead of Northern Iowa and also went farther in conference tourney, so should be ahead of Panthers. Lost five of last six to close regular season.
UTEP [22-7 (14-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 151] Two non-DI wins hurt resume. Got some more wins to close out regular-season. Could NCAA neg a 24-win second-place team from the WAC? Doesn't seem fair.
Ohio [17-10 (11-7), RPI: 60, SOS: 119]: Slipped past Marshall to make MAC quarters. Blistered by Kent State with regular-season title share on the line. Have swept Buffalo and split with Miami (OH) (won by four, lost by two). Was swept by Akron, so may need to finish ahead of the Zips. Impressive 8-6 vs. RPI Top 100.
Davidson [18-8 (16-0), RPI: 59, SOS: 108] This year's poster child for not having conference tourneys. A perfect 16-0 in SoCon regular season and bounced in tourney semis by UNC Greensboro. On list now in memorium -- no chance for an at-large bid. 1-4 vs. RPI Top 100.
Saint Joseph's [17-10 (14-2), RPI: 70, SOS: 105] Hawks clinched overall A-10 regular-season crown with strong W at GW, but loss to awful Rhode Island team probably eliminated any at-large talk. A-10 pretty likely to be a one-bid league.
Oral Roberts [24-7 (11-3), RPI: 71, SOS: 270] Loss to under-.500 Oakland, essentially at home, most likely condemns ORU to the NIT. Good record, but the profile is lacking across the board for serious at-large consideration.
George Washington [19-7 (11-5), RPI: 80, SOS: 196] Walked over Rhode Island, but may be too little, too late after getting pounded at Xavier and by Saint Joe's.
New Mexico [22-6 (10-4), RPI: 87, SOS: 297] Rolled past Colorado State to keep dream alive. Lobos are 22-3 with star Danny Granger healthy, and one of those was to Wake Forest. Beat Utah for a marquee W. Hideous SOS could be a major issue, but Lobos probably deserve a long look if they make the MWC finals.
Western Michigan [17-10 (11-6), RPI: 92, SOS: 138] Loss to Ball State probably eliminates at-large hopes. Now 5-7 vs. RPI Top 100.
Auto bids:
Old Dominion
Creighton
Gonzaga
Wis.Mil
Locks:
Pacific
So. Illinois
Utah
Nevada
St. Mary's
St. Mary's shouldn't be in the tourney, let alone a "lock." They do have a good overall record and a good conference win against Gonzaga, but really have done nothing else.
Anyway, here is the "mid-major" bubble breakdown from ESPN:
Vermont [23-6 (16-2), RPI: 23, SOS: 104] Downed early-round host Binghamton to bring the conference finals vs. Northeastern back to Burlington. RPI remains bulletproof because of unbeaten home record, but have a hard time seeing committee giving at-large to low-major-conference team that lost three of last six heading into the postseason. Seems unfair. This team can play. Now 3-3 vs RPI Top 50 with Northeastern sneaking in.
Miami (OH) [17-9 (12-6), RPI: 28, SOS: 54] Blew clincher for outright MAC title with awful loss at last-place Marshall, but still got solo title when every 11-6 team lost. Still, at-large status now much more murky. Has great RPI and solid record against RPI Top 50 win.
Buffalo [20-8 (11-7), RPI: 35, SOS: 101] Slipped past Northern Illinois to get Toledo in the MAC quarters. Big win over Akron in regular-season finale put Bulls back in the mix. Whopping 7-8 vs. RPI Top 100.
Northern Iowa [20-10 (11-7), RPI: 37, SOS: 58] Despite very solid computer profile, Panthers may have seen at-large dreams extinguished by surprising MVC quarterfinals loss to SMS. Very little way they can got a nod ahead of So. Illinois, Creighton and WSU now, and MVC's probably not getting four bids.
Kent State [18-11 (11-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 40] Ripped Central Michigan in MAC opening round. Finished tied for second with five other teams at 11-7 in conference. Have better SOS than Akron (season sweep) or Buffalo (split series). Only 6-11 vs. RPI Top 100.
Akron [18-9 (11-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 84] Eased past Eastern Michigan to gain MAC quarters. Loss at Buffalo in finale might hurt. 8-6 vs. RPI Top 100.
Holy Cross [24-5 (13-1), RPI: 45, SOS: 203] Barely escaped Lehigh but moves on to host Patriot finals against Bucknell. 1-3 vs RPI Top 50 and 21 wins outside RPI Top 100 probably mean tourney title is needed, despite good RPI.
Wichita State [20-9 (12-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 101] Creighton winning the MVC probably a good thing for WSU, as SMS doesn't grab precious bid. Shockers will have a very long wait this week. Finished ahead of Northern Iowa and also went farther in conference tourney, so should be ahead of Panthers. Lost five of last six to close regular season.
UTEP [22-7 (14-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 151] Two non-DI wins hurt resume. Got some more wins to close out regular-season. Could NCAA neg a 24-win second-place team from the WAC? Doesn't seem fair.
Ohio [17-10 (11-7), RPI: 60, SOS: 119]: Slipped past Marshall to make MAC quarters. Blistered by Kent State with regular-season title share on the line. Have swept Buffalo and split with Miami (OH) (won by four, lost by two). Was swept by Akron, so may need to finish ahead of the Zips. Impressive 8-6 vs. RPI Top 100.
Davidson [18-8 (16-0), RPI: 59, SOS: 108] This year's poster child for not having conference tourneys. A perfect 16-0 in SoCon regular season and bounced in tourney semis by UNC Greensboro. On list now in memorium -- no chance for an at-large bid. 1-4 vs. RPI Top 100.
Saint Joseph's [17-10 (14-2), RPI: 70, SOS: 105] Hawks clinched overall A-10 regular-season crown with strong W at GW, but loss to awful Rhode Island team probably eliminated any at-large talk. A-10 pretty likely to be a one-bid league.
Oral Roberts [24-7 (11-3), RPI: 71, SOS: 270] Loss to under-.500 Oakland, essentially at home, most likely condemns ORU to the NIT. Good record, but the profile is lacking across the board for serious at-large consideration.
George Washington [19-7 (11-5), RPI: 80, SOS: 196] Walked over Rhode Island, but may be too little, too late after getting pounded at Xavier and by Saint Joe's.
New Mexico [22-6 (10-4), RPI: 87, SOS: 297] Rolled past Colorado State to keep dream alive. Lobos are 22-3 with star Danny Granger healthy, and one of those was to Wake Forest. Beat Utah for a marquee W. Hideous SOS could be a major issue, but Lobos probably deserve a long look if they make the MWC finals.
Western Michigan [17-10 (11-6), RPI: 92, SOS: 138] Loss to Ball State probably eliminates at-large hopes. Now 5-7 vs. RPI Top 100.
Auto bids:
Old Dominion
Creighton
Gonzaga
Wis.Mil
Locks:
Pacific
So. Illinois
Utah
Nevada
St. Mary's
Actually we played at Butler in the NIT the year KSU went to the Elite 8. That sucked especially for us, because they had almost as good of a claim to an NCAA bid as we did. We were almost certainly team number 65 & 66 (not sure whether or not they had the play in then).
So not only did we get matched up with the best or second best team in the NIT, we also had to go to their court and play in their house, after we just had our hearts ripped out about not getting a tourney berth. No way we should've gotten a home game (based on attendance & capacity), but if the NIT would use a similar seeding system to the NCAA I think that would've been a much better post season experience for us.
So not only did we get matched up with the best or second best team in the NIT, we also had to go to their court and play in their house, after we just had our hearts ripped out about not getting a tourney berth. No way we should've gotten a home game (based on attendance & capacity), but if the NIT would use a similar seeding system to the NCAA I think that would've been a much better post season experience for us.
