Michael Turner the burner

[Warthog]

BTW, Warthog head to head is NOT one of the tiebreakers involved in draft position. I think it goes right to strength of schedule (with the weaker schedule getting the higher pick). A coin flip comes in at the end. I definitely know that head to head isn't one of the tiebreakers for draft slotting, though.

That's right. Now I remember last year that we discussed how the Dolphins picked before the Browns even though they had the same record and the Dolphins had beaten the Browns.

As far as this year goes then, winning yesterday probably hurt the draft position even more than I thought. I am not going to look up all the teams strength of schedule, but the Browns have played Ten, Hou, Bal twice, Oak, Det and GB. That's seven games against the bottom ten or so teams. Could another team have played an equally bad schedule?

On the flip side, the Browns also played Indy, Chi, Jax, and Cincy twice. Pits twice and Minny. Those are all potential playoff teams. Every teams schedule probably looks like this because, for the most part, teams are really good or really bad. There are very few teams in the middle of the pack this year.

[hammb]

I would think, if it came down to it, the Browns schedule would be fairly weak. They played the NFC North as their crossover division, and it's the worst in football (accounting for 2 of Cleveland's wins). They also played the AFC South which is good up top with Jax & Indy, but Houston & Tennessee are awful.

Maybe I'm just tired of rooting for draft position at the end of every year, but I think there's something to be said for the team still fighting. Yesterday was UGLY, but they played pretty well against Jacksonville & Cincy as well. I think building a winning attitude on the players that are already here is every bit as valuable as those 5 slots of draft position might be in terms of talent to add.

It should be noted that Cleveland is also $30 million under the cap, which is the most of any NFL team. They'll likely be higher than that as Lang is due $4.5 million and will get cut. So they could possibly have $35 million or so to spend in FA this year. Fill some holes in FA and add some impact players in the draft and this team should be able to be around .500 next year with the eyes towards 2007 as a contender.

[San Diego Falcon]

i overheard some rumblings last week (pardon me as i don't remember from which media outlet) that the nfl is considering a draft lottery to encourage bad teams not to totally tank in the last 3-5 weeks of the season.
does anyone really think that'll happen, though?

That would be a bad idea. NFL teams don't tank on purpose at the end of the season since there are no guaranteed contracts in the NFL. The guys on the roster are fighting for their jobs for next year.

Now the NBA is a different animal, given a player on a last-place team may still have $50M or so of guaranteed future income awaiting him no matter what.

[BGGrad01]

I would think, if it came down to it, the Browns schedule would be fairly weak. They played the NFC North as their crossover division, and it's the worst in football (accounting for 2 of Cleveland's wins). They also played the AFC South which is good up top with Jax & Indy, but Houston & Tennessee are awful.

Maybe I'm just tired of rooting for draft position at the end of every year, but I think there's something to be said for the team still fighting. Yesterday was UGLY, but they played pretty well against Jacksonville & Cincy as well. I think building a winning attitude on the players that are already here is every bit as valuable as those 5 slots of draft position might be in terms of talent to add.

It should be noted that Cleveland is also $30 million under the cap, which is the most of any NFL team. They'll likely be higher than that as Lang is due $4.5 million and will get cut. So they could possibly have $35 million or so to spend in FA this year. Fill some holes in FA and add some impact players in the draft and this team should be able to be around .500 next year with the eyes towards 2007 as a contender.

At the risk of this thread having nothing to do with BG football or the MAC, if you were Savage, what would you do?

The defense has been the backbone of this team all year, but it is clearly lacking in talent. I think linebacker and nose guard are two glaring areas, but the other areas lack talent as well. I'd like to see our first round pick be a big-time linebacker, while picking up another in FA. I would also like to see the fattest human alive in a Browns uniform over center next year at NG. I wouldn't mind seeing a couple upgrades at OL and perhaps a veteran receiver in FA.

[jacojdm]

I would also like to see the fattest human alive in a Browns uniform over center next year at NG.

I think Coach Amstutz just signed an extension at UT, so Savage can't go after him.

[Warthog]

Hammb, given where the Browns are at now, I have to agree. Yesterday's win eliminated any chance of a top five pick. So winning out would be good for the pshyche and won't really hurt the draft position much at this point. And I think finishing 7-9 on a three game winning streak might have some play with FA's the Browns go after. It looks like the team is heading n the right direction and ready to make the jump. At least a lot closer than being 4-12 again and getting another top 10 draft pick would make them look.

[hammb]

The defense has been the backbone of this team all year, but it is clearly lacking in talent. I think linebacker and nose guard are two glaring areas, but the other areas lack talent as well. I'd like to see our first round pick be a big-time linebacker, while picking up another in FA. I would also like to see the fattest human alive in a Browns uniform over center next year at NG. I wouldn't mind seeing a couple upgrades at OL and perhaps a veteran receiver in FA.

The defense has played admirably but is clearly lacking the talent that Romeo needs to run his scheme properly. We are the worst pass rushing team in the NFL, because we don't blitz. Why don't we blitz? Because even when we do we still don't get pressure. We've got nobody on the team that can consistently generate pressure on the QB.

If I'm ranking the Browns needs for the next draft its:

1. NT
2. DE
3. LB
4. OL
5. WR
6. RB
7. QB
8. P
9. DB

I'm a draft for BPA, FA for need guy. So while it'd be sweet, in my mind, to add a NT/DE/LB in the draft, I'm not going to rely on it.

If I'm Savage I'm going into the FA waters with my $35 million and I'm first going to re-sign my guys. I want to re-sign Antonio Bryant. The guy is not a big time player, but he's a solid #2. His drops hurt, but when Braylon moves up to the #1 and Antonio is #2 you won't notice them as much anymore. He's also young and a playmaker...a pretty good #2 in my opinion. So long as he doesn't want #1 WR type cash I'll lock him up for 3 or 4 more years. The other FA that I want to keep is Leigh Bodden. He'll get the max tender ($1.5 million for next season) which would mean another team would have to give us a first rounder to sign him. Nobody would, so he's back for '06...although I'd like to negotiate an extension with him. He's the best DB the Browns have and has earned a payday. I also want to re-sign LJ Shelton & Orpheus Roye to relatively small contracts. They're both good stop gap guys until we can find something better. If either of them want to break the bank then I let them go. Other than those 4 there really aren't any FAs off our team (now that Andra is locked up) that are worth keeping around.

Hopefully after re-signing my guys I've still got $25 million or so of my cap room left and I'm looking to upgrade my positions of need. I look down and see that I need a NT. Simple enough the future of the Browns at that positions is:



This dude (Ma'ake Kemoeatu) is an absolute beast in the middle and is still young enough to be the long term solution. It's my #1 need, and there's a star in the making available. I break the bank. I know that he's ready for his payday and he'll get it somewhere, I want it to be Cleveland. NT is, without a doubt, the most important position in the 3-4 scheme, and this guy played it before and was good. I don't like to overpay in the salary cap era, but for a talent like this you might have to.

Next I want to fill another need. In my ranking OL is my 4th need. They've played well this year, but need to add depth. I want to go out and sign LeCharles Bentley from New Orleans. He's dominant at any of the interior OL positions and he is young. He's got the mean streak I'd like to have, and he's going to hit the FA market most likely. Teams rarely franchise interior players. I think in my scheme he moves ahead of Cosey Coleman on my immediate depth chart, but he's also my backup Center & LG. Coleman is my backup at both OG positions. I wouldn't grossly overpay for Bentley but he would make the whole OL that much better and give us the depth to withstand an injury.

Those are the big name FAs that I chase. I also want to go out and find a DE & LB that will fit my 3-4 scheme. There are a number of teams that are running the 3-4 so I'd like to, if possible, find some players at those positions that fits the bill. Julian Peterson would be a possibility at LB, he's coming off knee surgery and next year should return to full health. I'm not 100% positive of the entire free agent market at this point, so I cannot give many more names. I'm also going to look for a punter, because Richardson has been VERY shaky this season.

In the draft, it's so hard. I like BPA. I don't care who it is I take the best player. Ideally that'd be a guy like Demeco Ryans or Ahmad Brooks that would give us the playmaking LB that we need, but who knows. I also would love to see one of the LT prospects become our BPA either in round 1 or round 2. In the end it's tough for me to predict the draft right now because I don't know where we'll draft (probably pick 11-13), and who will be taken ahead of us. If I cannot get a punter in FA, I have to think about drafting one sometime in rounds 5 or 6.

[1987alum]

hammb:

Everything I've read about Savage is that he goes BPA almost without question, so your assessment is probably spot on. Getting a BFP at NT would be key, since that's a cornerstone of any good 3-4 defense.

[hammb]

hammb:

Everything I've read about Savage is that he goes BPA almost without question, so your assessment is probably spot on. Getting a BFP at NT would be key, since that's a cornerstone of any good 3-4 defense.

That's pretty much it. I remember reading last year that he ranks his top 200 prospects and takes the guy that's highest ranked, almost without fail. Last year, for instance he had Braylon as the #1 player in the draft. He took him. He then wanted to take Charlie Frye in the 2nd round, but couldn't pass up Brodney Pool. They saw Pool as a lock for a top 20 had he not left school early and thought he was a can't miss guy, so they took him. Lo & Behold they got lucky and Frye dropped to the 3rd for them.

I think last year that Savage said he ranked his top 200 guys, and the last pick we made had to only go down to like #80 on his list.

If you look at the most successful teams they will generally draft on BPA moreso than need. Drafting for need causes reaches, and not getting the maximum value for your pick. When you get down to it all teams are only one injury away from having any position on the roster become their biggest need. You think KC needed a RB when they took Larry Johnson? I bet they're feeling pretty good about that pick now. Same goes for Minnesota when they took Moss. Take the best player available to you and you'll find a spot to play them.

Quite frankly, with the Browns there is not a single position that is so set in stone right now that I'd pass on a guy I thought was the best player available to me.

[1987alum]

Drafting for need causes reaches, and not getting the maximum value for your pick.

Exactly. And as you point out, you simply can't have enough depth.

[Warthog]

I agree on the BPA strategy, but I wanted to comment on the Larry Johnson thing. RB is the easiet to fill of all positions. There is a reason that Indy and Seattle didn't cash in all their chips to pay James and Alexander. Look around the league. You can plug in almost any RB on a team and they can look good. Look at all the late round/free agent guys that are starting now, and doing well. Samkon Gado is a prime example. He is the fifth starter for GB this year and is doing great. Anybody that plays fantasy football can recognize that when a starting RB goes down, you can almost bet that the backup will step in and put up similar if not better statistics.

Rudi J - 4th round
Droughns - 3rd
Dunn - FA
D. Davis - 4th
M. Anderson - 6th
Parker - undrafted
Gado, Foster, Greg Jones, Moats, are just more examples of plugging in backups and they are doing just fine. RB seems to be the one positon that, if the team has a good scheme, you can plug any talented player in and do good. You don't have to have a first rounder making mega bucks to be able to run the ball.

[hammb]

I know what you're saying Warthog, but some RBs are still special. If you have a good OL & scheme you can pretty much plug in any RB if he's got some instincts. Still, you don't think there'd be a pretty big dropoff if Droughns was replaced by Green or Suggs?

Although I was just throwing out an example of a team drafting who they deemed best player available, and Larry Johnson came to mind. It seems to me that Johnson is a better RB than Holmes now. Holmes was averaging 3.8 ypc, now Johnson steps in at 5.1! I know their OL is good and they've got a good scheme, but seems to me that by drafting BPA a few years back they got themselves a backup who's actually outperformed their incumbent. More importantly that position is STILL not a glaring need for them, so they don't have to overpay a FA, or reach in future drafts to fill the need.

Personally, I wouldn't have a problem at all if the Browns drafted a RB this year. Suggs & Green are awful and Droughns is gonna be getting old before too long...he's also only signed for one more season, and you don't know how much money he'll demand.

When I look at the draft the only positions that I think the Browns should avoid in the first round are K & P (for obvious reasons) & QB. And even then if I had a shot at VY or Quinn, I'd think about drafting the QB (they won't have that shot anyway). No doubt that RBs can be found anywhere, but it's also a position that has a VERY high success rate from first rounders.

[Warthog]

Yes, first round RB have a high percentage of being successful. But they generally have a short life span as well. Most RBs get three or four good years, then fall apart from the beating they take. Strictly from an investment type analysis, I am saying that you can get the biggest bang for you buck by using mid-late round draft picks on RB and plugging in a new one every few years vs spending big money on a first round guy and taking the risks he survives the pounding and plays for ten years.

I guess you can see that my strategy would be, if in a position to draft a stud RB early in the draft, to trade down and get more picks. And take a RB in the third or fourth round instead with one of the picks I acquire. But I am not a GM for a professional football team, so my thoughts are irrelevant.

On a different note, my money league fantasy team is playing for the championship next week. Here were the players I drafted in order and you can try to figure out how I got to the title game:
Duece
J. Lewis
Wayne
Burleson
K Collins
F. Taylor
J. Smith
Ravens
Elam
Moulds
Leftwich
Stallworth
M Moore
Eagles
Toefield
McCareins

Obviously, the guys I compete with are a bunch of suckers.