WMU preview

[MarkL]

I did one of these reviews last week and enjoyed putting it together, so here we go for another. I hope everybody likes reading these .. and if the reviews suck and you all want me to stop let me know. But I'm enjoying this and so far I'm 1/1 on calling it.

Our next opponent is Western Michigan. The Broncos are sitting at 3-3 (1-1). I'll preview what I can tell of them with a caveat: this is a tough preview because of the team's youth. Young teams are inconsistent, as we all know from watching the 2010-2011 teams. So .. here we go.

Offense
- When I say the offense is young, I mean young. All of their playmakers are either freshmen or sophomores. These guys will be very dangerous in the coming years.
- WMU's QB is sophomore Zach Terrell. He throws the ball a lot, averaging 30 attempts per game with a 10 to 4 ratio and has been sacked 11 times. The team passes a lot, but most TDs are not through the air. He won't throw a game away with dumb interceptions. As far as I can tell a backup quarterback hasn't thrown any passes so I have no idea what would happen if the injury bug hits WMU.
- The biggest surprise on this team has been the play of their true freshman running back Jarvion Franklin. Again, true freshman. He's got good size at 6-0 220 and also good speed. He averages 23 carries a game and already has 843 yards. MAC freshman of the year will probably either be Franklin or Roger Lewis, and I'd put my money on Franklin. To go with all those carries and yards, he has 15 TDs ... in 6 games. Also of note, he averages a hair under 6 yards a carry, which is incredible for a freshman. I saw him play against Purdue and I have to say he reminds me a lot of Anthon Samuel ... but a bit bigger. As his average may indicate, he has a tendency to break some long runs. Franklin is durable and gets the overwhelming majority of carries as the next back, Dareyon Chance, has only 28 for 152 and no TDs.
- The receiving corps is led by a pair of sophomores. These two guys are pretty even in stats. Daniel Braverman has 48 receptions for 691 at a 12.3 average and Corey Davis has 29 receptions for 542 which means an average of 18.7 (!). You can tell who the big play guy in the receiving corps is. Each of these two has 4 TDs. There's another receiver to note named Darius Phillips. He's a freshman at receiver with 14 for 169 and a TD. This is a young receiving corps with explosive potential. This is not one of the top receiving corps we will play but if our secondary is forced to help with the run D I could see trouble.
- It looks to me like the offense is balanced, a little heavy on the run. Jarvion Franklin looks like a beast of a runner. He's got great size and durability and also game breaking ability. Clearly the biggest key is shutting down the run game. The pass game isn't exactly game breaking but Terrell is an efficient passer and you can't ignore a receiver averaging almost 20 a pop. Last week against Ohio we went up against a similar back in Ouellette and our D held him to 48 on 16 carries, but Oullette was definitely a bit banged up. As far as I know Franklin is healthy and his durability is incredible for a freshman, so stuffing him is priority number one for our D on Saturday.

Defense
- The defense is much older and more experienced than the offense. Of the top 10 tacklers, you've got 5 Srs, 4 Jrs, and a Fr. We all know the recruiting tear that Fleck has been on since he was hired so there may not be too much of a dropoff when these guys all graduate.
- Last week I pointed out that OU's defense was disciplined as the top 3 tacklers were all linebackers. Such is not quite the same with WMU. The tackling lead is tied between Grant DePalma at LB and Justin Currie at DB. The next three leading tacklers are all DBs. These numbers indicate either that teams pass a lot against WMU ... which is true ... and that plays get into the secondary more often than not ... which is also true.
- The defense does not seem to force too many turnovers. Ronald Zamort and Donald Ciliscar are Jr and Sr DBs that each have 2 picks. And those are the only 4 picks on the season. And those are also the only 4 turnovers on the season. Yup, no fumble recoveries if I'm reading my stats right.
- WMU has played 2 conference games so far, against BSU and that team up north. As these games are conference games and the last two games, I'd call these games highly relevant to us.
- Defensively against that team up north, WMU had some problems stopping the run. The top runner had 19 rushes ... for 172! 9.1 average. I guess you could say the run D was susceptible to big runs out of the spread. Paging Greene and Box. The game went to overtime, so with that consideration, the team allowed 453 yards, but only 20 points. We similarly allowed over 500 yards last week on over 100 plays but only 13 points. Bend but don't break seems to be the name of the game. If both defenses play similarly on Saturday, both kickers will be pretty active.
- Against BSU, WMU allowed 471 total yards and 38 points. Pass D was a bit of a problem as they allowed 326 passing yards for 4 TDs. But the run D was far improved as BSU's Jahwan Edwards (who I thought might end up as MAC POY after Johnson went down) had 26 rushes for only 77 yards. BSU has been a massive disappointment but the passing game sure worked last week against WMU.

Special Teams
The special teams is a mixed bag. The good: punting. Schroeder averages 43.5 per punt. You read that right - over 40 per punt.
The meh: kicking. In six games, Haldeman is 5/8. 8 attempts seems awfully low for 6 games in. Tate is currently 12/15 and I think all three misses are blocks.
The bad: punt returns. If this stat is wrong, please correct me because this just looks funny. Braverman (a sophomore receiver I mentioned above) is the leading punt returner with 6 returns for -8 and (predictably) 0 TDs. I mean, seriously, after 6 games the leading punt returner has minus 8 yards?

Overall
- WMU is 3-3 (1-1). They are shockingly close to 5-1 (2-0). WMU played a good game at Purdue but let a winnable game slip in the final few minutes. And against that team up north who many believe will win the west, WMU allowed a late TD to tie the game and then lost in OT when an XP attempt hit the upright. This is a young team and an especially young offense playing very well. But young players make mistakes.
- I believe that our offense will be able to get plays into the secondary consistently. I believe this may be a game our running backs have been looking forward to as I am expecting Greene, Coppet (and maybe even Givens if he gets the chance) will break some big runs on the D. I also think the passing game should be efficient, maybe explosive against the secondary if the WMU D puts too much effort into stopping our backs.
- I also believe our D will have their hands full with Franklin. Two weeks ago Anthone Taylor of Buffalo ran for over 200. Last week we played against another great running back but Oullette was definitely banged up some and we stuffed him. I think our front seven will have to focus primarily on stopping the run game and let the secondary contain the pass game. I fear if the secondary is forced to play run D then we will give up big plays in the pass game. If ... if our secondary plays the way they did against Ohio and our front seven takes care of business, we'll be fine. Our D has improved week to week and I expect to see more improvement.

My expectation is our D will continue their improvement, prevent Franklin from breaking big runs, and play the bend but don't break style. I also expect our offense will have a great day busting big plays with our fast paced scheme. This to me looks like another opportunity for a multiple possession win.


Be happy if ...
- the D stuffs Franklin
- our backs break big plays consistently on first down
- Moore has more explosive plays and Lewis is impossible to cover

Worry if ...
- Franklin breaks tackles
- our D has to focus so much effort on the running game that the secondary gives up big pass plays
- Knapke has an off day

[BGSU33]

WMU is a much-improved team this year. It has been 10 years since we last beat WMU. I know we don't play them every year, but BG has lost three in a row to WMU (including the last two at the Doyt) and has only won 3 of the last 12 meetings with WMU. We are long overdue for a win over WMU. It's also our last Saturday regular season game of the year.

[Flipper]

Scoring defense has improved the past two weeks and our offense is better at home than on the road. WMU just gave up a kagillion points to a really bad Ball State team.

I like our chances

[MarkL]

Scoring defense has improved the past two weeks and our offense is better at home than on the road. WMU just gave up a kagillion points to a really bad Ball State team.

I like our chances

Yeah I do too. But as I said in the preview post, Franklin can be scary. Stuff him and we win.

[jpfalcon09]

Should be an exciting game and a good challenge for the defense. Definitely believe Western will see this as a measuring stick game. Still like BG at home by two scores.

[Falconfreak90]

Should be an exciting game and a good challenge for the defense. Definitely believe Western will see this as a measuring stick game. Still like BG at home by two scores.

I'm with you. BG by 10-14 points although we are gonna have to work for it.