UMass preview

[MarkL]

This is actually a really hard preview to do because UMass has a truly limited body of work at our level of competition. But I'll do what I can.

UMass
I said going into this season that UMass is a must-win game. They are a legit East contender, or so I said. Do I still say that? Undecided. Hard telling with their schedule, but they are a dangerous team.

TL;DR version
I'll start putting a quick summary of my preview at the top so you can save half an hour and get the main gist of it.
UMass is a team with a scary pass offense and our defensive secondary is thin. However not much else of UMass is necessarily scary. This game looks similar to the Memphis game and could be a shootout. Or if our defense steps up, our offense is capable of pulling away early.

The Series
- We are all time 3-0 against UMass and this will be the last game where UMass is a conference opponent. Let's send them out the way we brought them in!
- 2012 and 2013 were complete dominant wins where our defense just destroyed a young offense with no real identity
- 2014 UMass out of nowhere unveiled a high-powered passing attack and we unveiled a pathetic defense. We won a fun shootout

Offense
- Senior QB Blake Frohnapfel came out of nowhere last year to have a great season, which propelled him to a lot of preseason 1st team All-MAC QB.
... - So far, he is having another great season with respect to his competition. He's at 101/171 for 1214, 7 TD/3 Int.
... - 59.1% completion percentage is a bit low, but he has faced some great teams.
... - He has passed for a minimum of 225 on every team so far.
... - He nearly hit 400 against Temple. For comparison, Temple held Penn State's Hackenburg to 103 ... but got torched by Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel for 400+
... - Frohnapfel is a big dude at 6-6 238. Similar frame as Memphis' Paxton Lynch. I don't think he has quite as strong as an arm but still, he is an impressive passer.
... - Our defense has been torched through the air much of this season. We are thin in the secondary. We should be concerned.
- Last year, UMass relied so heavily on the pass largely because the run offense went nowhere. The team rushed for a total of 1312 yards last season, averaging only 3.39 per rush.
... - This year even with respect to the schedule, the run offense is more on track. They currently have 472 yards rushing (we have 810) and are averaging 3.87 per rush (we are averaging 4.31)
... - The rushing offense is better but is still not exactly setting the world on fire. Temple held UMass to 45 yards (which includes sacks). Temple held Penn State to 80 on the ground and Cincinnati to 130 but got lit up by Charlotte for 223.
... - UMass balances the carries. Senior Jamal Wilson has 25 rushes for 119 and 2 TD. Not exactly scary. He's a rather typical sized back at 5'10 209.
... - Junior Shadrach Abrokwah seems to have not played since the opener though he started at #2 on the depth chart. He might have been injured.
... - Freshman Marquis Young is a bit of a speedster. He had a 30 yarder vs Colorado and an 83 yarder vs Notre Dame. He's 6'0 196, so not overly big but he's got speed.
... - Freshman Sekai Lindsay has played some the last few games. He only has 25 for 64, so not much, but he's a bit of a bowling ball at 5'8 215.
... - Their most recent game was against FIU. FIU has been hit and miss against the run, holding two bad teams to sub 50 rushing yards and getting lit up by two good offenses for 200+. Against FIU, UMass ran for 132.
... - The running offense is not scary, but if you drop back to stop the pass, they may be able to do some damage.
- The offensive line looks to be a good line but certainly not the best we've faced. Their starting five is one sophomore, three juniors, and a senior. So you've got a veteran group and also a group that will be better next year.
... - They have some good size. Three of the starters are 320+ (The other two are in the 290's). One of their guards is 6'7 323.
... - The line has given up 9 sacks in 4 games.
... - This is by no means the best line we've seen all year. But when you have such a dynamite passing game, the line is doing something right.
- And the receivers ....
... - Senior Rodney Mills is about the smallest TE I've ever seen at 6'1 205. He has 5 receptions for 104 yards (20.8 average(!!) - but early stats are weird). All against Temple. A long of 48 padded the stats.
... - The aforementioned senior running back Jamal Wilson has 11 receptions for 112 and a TD to go along with his rushing yards. What helps his stats are a 31 yard reception against Temple and a 30 yard reception against FIU.
... - Senior WR Marken Michel is a smaller, athletic guy at 5'11 190. Michel was not part of the program last year but is back with the team. He is the TD receptions leader with 3 and has 22 receptions for 284 yards.
... - And there's also a guy named Tajae Sharpe. We saw plenty of him last year. He's a good sized target at 6'3 188 and it seems like he is always open. 4 games in he has 45 receptions for 536 yards, though only 1 TD.
...... - Sharpe accounts for nearly half of Frohnapfel's completions.
... - Watch out for #1, Sharpe. You can blanket him and he'll still get open. He is such an integral part of the passing game. It is hard deciding who is a bigger part of the success, him or Frohnapfel.
- This is a good offense, all set up by the passing game.
- Think of a Memphis-lite passing game.
- As for the running game, I do think this is the weakest we've seen all year. Still, you have to account for it.

Defense
- The defense is giving up close to 40 per game. When you get blasted by Colorado for 48 and Notre Dame for 62, that happens. But they held FIU to 14, which is about their season norm.
- They work with a lot of 3 man fronts. I can't remember if we've seen any 3 man defensive fronts this year.
- The defense one week was lit up by Colorado on the ground for nearly 400, then Temple the next week through the air for nearly 400, and then Notre Dame on the ground for 450+ and through the air for 220+.
... - Hard getting a real read when playing that kind of competition.
- The top three tacklers are seniors. Good sign in terms of player progression.
... - Senior Jovan Santos-Knox is the tackling leader with 33 total (14 solo). He also is the TFL leader with 4 and the sack leader with 2.
... - Senior defensive backs Joe Colton (hybrid safety/linebacker position) and Trey Dudley-Giles (SS) are second and third in tackling.
... - Something to note. The highest defensive lineman in terms of tackles is 12th on the team. Junior DT Peter Angeh is the leading DL tackler with 9 tackles - 5 solo.
...... - For comparison, Taylor Royster is 6th on our team in tackles with 22 total (14 solo) and Terrance Bush is 9th with 17 (8 solo).
- The team has come up with a total of 3 interceptions in 4 games and only 1 fumble recovery. Which is around where we are in turnovers.
- The team has 23 TFLs and 7 sacks. 4 games in they have the same number of sacks as our defense but far fewer TFLs.
... - Note. We have given up 17 sacks. But when your QB is winging it around as much as Matt Johnson is, you expect to give up sacks. Still, 17 is a lot.
- This defense overall is not great. We should be able to light them up. I think.
... - Though It is always hard telling when you've already played Notre Dame and a darn good Temple team. They were successful against FIU by stats, but big picture reveals that FIU's offense had an average day.

Special Teams
- I just don't have much to say here. As a team they have so few punt returns to make any kind of conclusion. Too little data. Kick returns are pedestrian. The team is 2 / 3 on FG attempts.
- One interesting stat line ... the punter has punted 23 times this season for a total of exactly 1000 yards.
- I wish I had more to say about ST but I don't. Early season stats make these previews hard sometimes.


UMass' season so far
-UMass is 1-3 on a one game winning streak.

-UMass was flattened by Colorado and Notre Dame. Not much to say other than they were close with ND until ND went nuclear.

-Temple 25, UMass 23
... - UMass took Temple down to the wire. Temple won with a late blocked PAT returned for 2 and a late field goal.
... - UMass was spectacular against the run, allowing only 67 yards on 37 carries.
... - But Temple had their way with the UMass secondary, throwing for nearly 400 yards.
...... - In UMass' favor, Temple only completed 28 / 48, 1 TD / 2 Int.
... - UMass was so, so close to knocking off a good Temple team coming off a huge win over Penn State.

-UMass 24, Florida International 14
... - FIU has a pretty bad offense. Against FBS competition, their season high in scoring is 22 against Indiana.
... - Still, it was awfully impressive that UMass held FIU to 73 yards on 29 carries and only 115 yards on 22 completions - a hair over 5 yards a completion.
... - Frohnapfel impressively went 32 / 43, 363 and 3 TDs with 0 picks.
... - And Tajae Sharpe pulled in 15 for 159.


Which all leads me to ....
UMass at Bowling Green
- As of now, we are 13 point favorites.
- Weather should be nice. We shouldn't have to deal with a wet ball like we did at Buffalo. So neither passing offense should be able to use weather as an excuse unless the wind picks up beyond normal.
- Blake Frohnapfel is like a Paxton Lynch-lite and the UMass offense is a Memphis-lite. This is a dangerous group.
- I'm not worried about the run game. I would only worry about the run game if we drop our linebackers consistently into pass coverage.
- Our lack of depth in the secondary vs their strength - the passing offense - is a huge concern for us.
- Similarly, UMass' secondary has been carved up by worse pass offenses than ours.
- If you're looking for a shootout, this might be it. And I feel better about this one than Memphis because Memphis had a more complete offense due to a run game.
- UMass will not be able to run the ball and put together lengthy drives against us the way Buffalo did. Their strategy will likely be to outscore us.
- If the game turns into a whose-offense-runs-out-of-steam-first, I feel good about the game. We have a more balanced offense than UMass does.
... - But I sure would like to see our defense step it up and allow our offense to build an early lead.
- I should think we can run the ball on them which will help us complete our drives.
- This is a game we should be able to win. We have more firepower.
... - But it still is concerning, especially if we end up in a shootout. UMass has been in just as many shootouts the last couple years as we have.
- Three things I want out of this game ...
... - A 2-0 conference record!
... - Fewer self-inflicted mistakes. We did far better in this department against Buffalo but there still were mistakes we did not need to make, including a critical dropped pass on fourth down.
... - No injuries. None for either team. Our secondary is already dangerously thin. And I hate seeing injuries.

There we go! You've spent twenty minutes reading this preview you could have spent doing something productive! But seriously, this is fun to put together. I look forward to previewing Akron, hopefully with a 4-2 record!

[kdog27]

Thanks Mark.