I'm not going to dare to make predictions here as our team is such a wild card. Between the coaching staff, the changeover on offensive line, the potential growth of a secondary that gave up big plays left and right, and the unknowns of the receiving corps, I do not have a good read on our team yet. If I had to take a guess at a final record, I'm going with 6-6, but picking out which 6 are the wins would be a total crapshoot.
No, this thread is just my thoughts on the teams, not necessarily our matchups nor highlights of players or stats of note, though I'll mention all that to a degree.
Michigan State
- I can't help but think Dantonio is on his way out for three key reasons. Pat Narduzzi is gone and the play of the team has gone with him, there was a serious player scandal, and Jim Harbaugh is in the state.
- It seems Pat Narduzzi was not just a great DC, he was maybe the real genius behind MSU's rise. Narduzzi is gone to Pitt, and two years later MSU had its worst season since before Narduzzi and Dantonio showed up followed by a very serious and detrimental player conduct scandal.
- MSU is down
- they gave up big plays all last year in the secondary and now they rebuild there again.
- they never had consistent passing success and now they are replacing some key receivers and offensive linemen
- the defensive line has serious building to do
- the culture Dantonio worked so hard to build is now in question
- I genuinely was hoping PJ Fleck would take over Michigan State in order to have him take on the "little brother" mentality against Harbaugh. Mark Dantonio had the amazing fortune of showing up at MSU at the exact right time. Lloyd Carr was on his way out of Michigan, he was replaced by two different coaches who failed to right the ship and in many ways sank the ship instead, and the result was there was a "power vacuum" in the state of Michigan. MSU was in the right place at the right time. Now Jim Harbaugh is building an utter monster in Ann Arbor and I just don't see Dantonio keeping up.
- If our 2015 team were going up against this Michigan State team, I'd feel great about our chances. That said, depth problems and all, Michigan State still has a great set of running backs and a physical team. Physical offensive lines have run all over our recent teams so I'm not optimistic.
- We'll hopefully play well against these guys and I'd love to see us put up a great fight, but when it comes down to it I think they'll beat us in the trenches and always be several steps ahead.
- A good showing against MSU will go a long way. I expect a good showing.
- South Dakota went 4-7 last year, and it was anything but boring, with games regularly seeing both teams score in the 30s and beyond.
- Their QB Streveler was the leading passer and rusher, running on both scrambles and designed plays. He hit nearly 1000 on the season, and that was with a 700 yard rusher also in the backfield.
- The offense looks a bit like our 2003 offense. The QB is a serious playmaker.
- What I've seen of them is their defense has a tendency to play undisciplined and allow some big plays, but they show heart getting back into games. The offense is dangerous. Don't let off the pedal until you know you can.
- My hope is our offense scores in the 50s. That would go a long way toward forgetting last year's fiasco against North Dakota.
- Northwestern ended the year strong last year, knocking off Pitt. Pitt was one great team last year - the only one to beat eventual national champs Clemson, and they also beat Penn State along the way. They were the only team to beat two major conference champions. And Northwestern took them down in the bowl game.
- They return a ton of talent - an Omar Jacobs-sized QB, a reliable set of running backs, 4 of 5 offensive line starters, and most of their secondary.
- Northwestern is not known for winning blowouts against MAC teams. WMU got them last year, a bad Ball State nearly pulled the upset in 2015, eventual champs NIU won in 2014. So even if we pull this upset or lose a tight one, Northwestern still may end up in the Big Ten race.
- We're all time 2-0 vs Northwestern. It would be great to make it 3-0, but this Northwestern team has something those teams didn't: good defense. I don't see us winning, but if we do this would be the best Northwestern team we've ever beaten and the best major conference team we've beaten in years.
- Last year's game was so frustrating. I'll be saying that several times on this page. We were very much in this game in the second half, and we were putting together long drives of grinding running plays, but we couldn't finish drives. And of course Knapke threw interceptions at the worst possible times.
- Offensively they return a spread QB who has consistently put up big numbers and a bunch of receivers, including the dangerous speedster James. Defensively their back seven should be solid even if our offensive line gains traction against the defensive line.
- I make no reservations in my statement that C-USA is terrible. They are the worst conference. MTSU is one of the best three of the conference, with LTech and WKU. It would be a good statement for us and the MAC to go from bottom third of the conference and losing to a top tier C-USA team to beating that same team in a year span.
- Anyone remember the last time we lost to Akron? November 2006, the phantom offensive pass interference penalty which ended what would have been a comeback win. Since then we've won close games, we've won exciting games, and we've won blowouts.
- Terry Bowden clearly is building something. He took over a dead program and won a bowl game in year four. However, the last three years he's had opportunities to win the MAC East and has lost that one game he had to win each time.
- Tommy Woodson is already a senior. Tough to believe, I remember writing a profile on him in is freshman year back in 2014. He's had an up-and-down career, and has never had an up game against BG. In fact I think he's only gotten significant time in one game, the 2015 blowout (benched in 2014 when original starter returned from injury, injured in 2016)
- The running backs should be decent, perhaps good, returning two 400 yard backs and last year's original starter, one of those Ohio State transfers, who was injured early. And their receiving corps was productive when the QB play was there.
- Normally when we play Akron, they come in with a "top in the MAC" type of defense and leave with a "middle of the MAC" defense. They were the MAC's statistically top defense going into our 2015 game. 59 points later, that changed a bit.
- This year the LBs should be solid, but the rest of the defense is in a bit of a building mode.
- Akron had unreal injury misfortune last year and they predictably collapsed. They frequently have terrible injury luck.
- We'll catch them stronger in 2017 than when we caught them late 2016. Stronger specifically on offense. Veteran QB and receivers with potential.
- I just want to keep the win streak going. Losing to Akron would have a real end-of-our-run feel, much like losing to EMU and Ohio last year to start conference play did.
- Last year's game was so frustrating. We were absolutely in it and then a disastrous few minutes with a kickoff return TD called back for a flag, a freshman mistake by Morgan leading to a safety, and then another quick TD. It looked like we would gain 7 points but instead yielded 9. A 16 point differential over a disastrous few minutes in a game we lost by 14.
- Miami is my pick to win the east. They won 6 straight to close the regular season and looked much like our 2012 team in the process - excellent team defense, safe play on offense.
- Now like our 2013, they return most of their defense. And they return most of the offense too, including an exciting young QB who only threw one interception in guiding those 6 late wins.
- I see Chuck Martin much like Dave Clawson. A program builder. He's built a young foundation, and now that young foundation is becoming junior and senior leadership. He's minimized shortcuts with transfers (except for an early surge to fill in an embarrassingly depleted roster) and has instead relied upon recruiting and developing.
- Remember how in 2011, something like half of our scholarship players were freshmen and 3/4 were underclassmen? Then we saw those guys grow and develop into champs? Miami is following the same blueprint.
- Miami will not be an exciting team unless you appreciate physical dominance at the line and solid team defense. If you're looking for offensive spark, look elsewhere. I just see a winning MAC formula, the one we used in 2012-13.
- Last year's game was so frustrating. We spotted an early lead, Morgan showed potential by getting us back into it, but ultimately a few mistakes (dropped passes, missed tackles, and some questionable offensive play calling) doomed the comeback chance.
- I never thought Frank Solich would still be here. I thought he'd have retired. It seemed with the Bobcats annual collapses in 2012-14, he was about done, and 2015 had all the signs of another late season collapse. Then everything changed when Ohio won the last three, including over west champs NIU. Solich seems to have found a new spark.
- This should be a solid team. They return nearly all of their offensive skill players and most of the defensive back seven.
- Dave Clawson always said Frank Solich ran the model MAC program. Most of his starters are juniors and seniors, allowing the young players to develop before being relied upon, and then when they are needed they are ready.
- My biggest nag with Ohio is the injury bug always seems to hit them. I'm not sure if the problem is strength and conditioning or a specific style of play or what. For whatever reason, they always seem to have the longest injury report in the conference.
- If we start MAC play 3-0, the east is ours. That's it. Don't ask my guess on that happening.
- Last year's game was our worst MAC game of the year. No question. We were physically dominated, and yet the team responded with three straight wins. I'd have given them a pass if they mailed it in for the year at 1-8.
- Talk about a rough start to MAC play. The top three east contenders followed by the conference's biggest baddest program.
- I'm torn between NIU and WMU to win the west. NIU is coming off a rare down year, but everything is pointing their way this year. Ryan Graham, the QB that beat UT and WMU to win the west in 2015 is back, they have great depth and talent at RB and WR, they always have the MAC's best offensive line, and they have one outstanding secondary.
- NIU has lost so many QBs to injury recently. The good news of that is they have experienced QBs.
- Like us, NIU rallied late in the season. There's good reason to be optimistic.
- I have always liked NIU's style. They recruit the offensive linemen that Wisconsin and Iowa pass on, they use that physical line to build a bruising offense, and then once they have a lead in a game, good luck catching up.
- I know after limping into the 2015 title game, a dreadful 2015 bowl, and a down 2016 that it is easy to say the magic has passed. Maybe it has. I just feel that the chip-on-the-shoulder mindset at NIU combined with the talent and depth they have is going to lead them to a great season.
- It feels like an eternity ago that we couldn't beat Kent State. Four straight wins later, mostly blowouts, it feels natural to expect a win.
- I'm honestly not sure why Paul Haynes is still around. Darrell Hazell had one outstanding year in 2012 - a little bit of luck, a bit of a flash-pan season, and a whole lot of hard play led by a senior QB and an unreal set of backs. Haynes has yet to produce a decent season and I can't help but think this will be his final one.
- There has yet to be good QB play at Kent State under Haynes. Though plenty of experience returns, that means little if the experience hasn't led to good results. The RBs should be decent, if the young offensive line holds up.
- Kent State was amazingly bad on offense in 2015. We shut them out with a decent defense and they rarely threatened to reach midfield. In fact I think three teams shut them out in 2015.
- In 2016 they resorted to letting a RB play some QB. They were so predictable that our maligned defense had every play snuffed out and they were a couple missed tackles from two straight shutout wins over Kent State.
- Defensively Kent is always great against bad offenses and terrible against good offenses. We have had our way against Kent every year under Haynes, even last year where we unleashed a one-dimensional offense consisting of handoffs.
- I kind of hope Kent has a bad year again, so Haynes can be let go and Kent can try again from scratch.
- Worth noting, for the second time in Haynes' career at Kent State, he is dealing with the death of a player under his watch. As a coach, you make a solemn promise to every kid's parents that you will watch out for their kid and take the best care possible. I cannot imagine a) looking two sets of parents in the eye who entrusted their kid to you and b) the emotional roller coaster of the team. I believe in both cases what happened was beyond the coaches' control; regardless it must weigh heavy.
- We've beaten UB six straight times. Some of those wins have been big. Last year's was an ugly win where we had to hold off a comeback by a terrible offense, but it was a nice win in that it ended a bad season on a nice win streak.
- Lance Leipold was a master at Wisconsin Whitewater. Perhaps now that he's running a far bigger program including a real recruiting budget, he just doesn't have it. I don't really know, but for whatever reason little of the success Leipold had at UWW, especially on defense, has shown up at UB.
- Worth noting on that defensive side of the ball is they do return a lot of production. We ran all over their defense last year but they came up with some key stops, including fumbles.
- Offensively they had every QB problem imaginable but their top QB is a real prospect. Big guy, huge arm, and some good legs under him. Beyond that I think their offense is tame, though our defense has to grow before they can be confident going against any offense.
- I thought Leipold was a seriously impressive hire. This is year three. If the level of play this and next year do not improve, the experiment of hiring a highly successful lower division coach straight up to the top division may begin and end at Buffalo.
- In 2004, Bowling Green had a good year. They beat everybody they should have but only two decent teams (Marshall and Memphis). They could not beat a nationally known team (Oklahoma) though they played tight, and they could not beat an upper MAC team when the pressure was on.
- Then in 2005, so many pivotal players returned and the MAC East was down. Bowling Green was the EASY pick to win the MAC East, largely by default because nobody else was seriously expected to challenge. Bowling Green had the best known players on offense and was generating good local headlines. Bowling Green had a young coaching staff that ultimately did not handle the expectations or the pressure well and had a disappointing season as they truly were not head and shoulders above the competition.
- In 2016, UT had a good year. They beat everybody they should have but only two decent teams (EMU and CMU). They could not beat a nationally known team (BYU) but they played tight, and they could not beat an upper MAC team when the pressure was on (WMU and Ohio).
- Now in 2017, so many pivotal players return and the MAC West is down. UT has been everybody's favorite pick to win the MAC West, largely by default because nobody else is seriously expected to challenge. UT has the best known players on offense and is generating good local headlines. UT has a young coaching staff that has to figure out how to handle expectations when they truly are not head and shoulders above their competition but their expectations are.
- See where I'm going here?
- Last year's game was so frustrating. We played a bad game and still could have won, and then the defense allowed a back breaking drive late in the game where they failed to stop one third down conversion after another.
- When Chris Creighton was hired after the 2013 season, I was impressed and called him a Dave Clawson-lite. Both EMU and Miami went the program builder route, as a program builder just built a program from ashes to knock off a 12-0 sure-thing BCS bound team and win the championship. 2-10 to champs in three short years.
- I figured EMU would pull an upset or two in 2016 but be a year away from bowl eligibility. Clearly they are a year ahead of schedule. Now with returning a good QB, most of the offense and most of the defense returning, the post season is the expectation.
- I think they are a year away from contending for the MAC title. I seriously think in 2018 EMU could be a contender with the way they are building. Might they be a year ahead of schedule again?
- Probably not but they've earned me entertaining title contention as a possibility
- EMU will be a physical team. They won't be pretty. Much like Miami as previously mentioned. But they'll be able to win games the old fashioned way. And their defense may end up as good as Miami.
- It's a legit possibility that the last game of the season will have implications on who is going to a bowl game or which one. Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan. What?
Western Michigan
Western is the most talented team in the conference. They have an unreal set of running backs and a good enough defense to drive a MAC title season. They do replace most of the passing game. WMU is certainly capable of winning the MAC again.
Central Michigan
Bonamego has his guys playing hard. His offense looks to be a QB away from spectacular, and defensively they are experienced. My nagging concern is since Jones left, CMU has not had that edge. Bonamego has them playing hard but not to the degree under Kelly and Jones. If a team surprises in the west, it will be CMU.
Ball State
It's a total rebuild here. Lembo for whatever reason let a program he had humming for a few years collapse. Mike Neu's first year was not pretty, losing 7 of the final 8, all MAC games. So it's impossible to tell what direction they're going in.
And some quick regional and national thoughts ...
- Let's just get this out of the way. Bad news first. Ohio State is my pick to win the national title. I just barfed in my mouth a bit. For three reasons ...
- Best coaching staff. Meyer at HC and former successful HCs at DC and OC
- At minimum a top two nationwide combination of talent and experience
- Meyer's first bowl loss was at Florida in 2007 to Michigan. Florida was physically dominated. In 2008, Meyer focused on better physicality at the lines and it led to a national championship.
- Next bowl loss was in 2013 at Ohio State to Clemson. Ohio State was athletically inferior and defensively could not get a stop when they needed. In 2014, Meyer focused on athleticism and defensive dominance, and Ohio State won a national title.
- Anyone remember how Ohio State did in a bowl game last year? I expect Meyer is working on every little detail right now with that coaching staff and those talented players, and they now have a chip on their shoulders.
- If anyone derails Ohio State's dream season, it is Michigan
- Michigan is as talented as anyone but there are new starters all over the place
- If the team comes together nicely under Harbaugh's guidance, they start the season as a decent team and finish as an excellent one.
- They won't win the Big Ten East this year unless everything happens to fall in line. But given the talent and the coaching, they may surprise and end up as the overall best team in the east, just with some early losses to prevent a title game appearance.
- The big game is in Ann Arbor. They can win. I wouldn't bet on it but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it happens.
- Penn State will be good. And fun. And Ohio State is going to give them a whipping of epic proportions.
- An Urban Meyer team with vengeance on tap is something I never want to see on the opposing sideline
- The USC hype will not lead to a national championship
- Sure they're talented, but I imaging the coaching staff is going to have an awful time keeping the team focused against all the media hype they are getting
- But Sam Darnold looks like a good bet for the Heisman
- Alabama will be great again
- They'll make their fourth straight playoff and most likely will run into Ohio State there. No room for an outsider like Clemson
- Considering Saban's attention to detail, he'll fix every problem he saw in the loss to Clemson and Alabama will unsurprisingly go 12-0 yet again. Yawn.
- Florida State will be awesome
- Even with losing that amazing RB Cook, they will be awesome. That young QB and that defense are legit.
- Teams that could surprise
- Florida is a QB away from from turning the SEC on its head
- Miami is going totally under the radar. They're probably happy about it because they look ready to pounce
- Wisconsin could get to 12-0 or 11-1. No kidding. If they have the good fortune of catching someone other than Ohio State in the title game or catching an injured Ohio State, they could sneak into the playoff. Too many ifs for me.
- Texas. Interesting stat: in Herman's two years at Houston, he was undefeated in games where Houston was the underdog. The only losses were where Houston was favored. Now he inherits far more talent and a schedule where Texas will consistently be an underdog. Havoc will live in Austin this year.
