Next three games

[MarkL]

The next three games mark the end of the traditional Saturday games. Here's a quick look at all three:

Western Michigan
Western has a good offense. They are passing well (275 a game, 14 TD / 4 int), they are running well (nearly 200 a game). Defensively if you take away their first two against Michigan and Syracuse, give up a hair over 100 yards a game and only 4 TDs on the ground. Miami lit us up for nearly 300 rushing yards, then Western held them to 55. Western does have a weakness - pass defense. On the season they are giving up 11 TDs / 1 int. Last two games (Miami, EMU) they gave up a combined 500 yards, 5 TDs, no interceptions.
Our pass offense is our strength. So a BG strength lines up with a Western weakness. If we can exploit that and make it a shootout, we have a chance.
Otherwise, though, this one looks to favor Western pretty heavily.

Central Michigan
Central is also struggling. Same record as us. Not much is working for them. Passing game has thrown more interceptions than TDs (7 / 12 ratio), running game is only picking up about 120 a game and 4 TDs, defense have given up 13 rush TDs. But, they are in every game, all of which have been competitive low scoring games.
They do have a strength. Pass defense. It was pointed out that BG is not giving up many pass yards, but that is deceptive because the rush defense is giving offenses everything they want. Additionally we allow 11 TDs to 2 interceptions on the season, meaning we give up big pass plays. Offenses run as they wish against us, then hit a big pass.
Central, they give up 6 TD 7 int on the season. The secondary was their most senior position going into this season. So this is a strength, not an effect of another stat.
They are struggling as we are, but they are not getting blown out the way we are. Add to that the game is in Mount Pleasant and you can see us having an uphill battle but a winnable game. Last game against CMU was 2010. Similar situation for both teams. We won on a last minute TD after a late fumble recovery.

Ohio
Ohio is hard to read this year and are 1-0 in MAC with a 1 point win over Kent. Just looking at stats really quick, they are passing and running well but have a glaring weakness in pass defense. They are giving up 360+ pass yards per game, 15 TDs / 6 interceptions, which means offenses pass against Ohio all day.
Running defense is comparatively better, giving up 145 yards per game, 7 TDs on the season on the ground. (Way better than our 330 yards per game and 27 rushing TDs). But it's not like Ohio has such a stout run defense that opponents choose to attack them through the air.
All around, Ohio's defense is a disappointment.
They have NIU this weekend. We will learn a lot more about these guys in a couple of days.

[slashba33]

Great analysis as always, Mark. On paper, we only have two more games that we have any realistic chance of winning with Central and Kent. Stranger things have happened, but...

...as much as I love BG football and going to the Doyt, I'm counting down the weeks to hopefully end this nightmare. Can only imagine what the players are feeling at this point.

[Schadenfreude]

Great analysis as always, Mark. On paper, we only have two more games that we have any realistic chance of winning with Central and Kent. Stranger things have happened, but...

I think we have a chance against Ohio, too. I could be wrong. We will see.

[BGFalconfromCincy]

Mark, after the Western and OU games on a Saturday the schedule is hosting Kent on a Tuesday before the Saturday game at Central Michigan, and then another Saturday game at Akron. Only one weekday night game before the Black Friday finale, with two Saturday games in November, that's probably the only positive I can find from the Mike Jinks era of BG football

[MarkL]

Mark, after the Western and OU games on a Saturday the schedule is hosting Kent on a Tuesday before the Saturday game at Central Michigan, and then another Saturday game at Akron. Only one weekday night game before the Black Friday finale, with two Saturday games in November, that's probably the only positive I can find from the Mike Jinks era of BG football

Are you accusing me of messing up the schedule?
... consults athletic department website ....
Wow. I'm getting forgetful. Good catch. Will take a look at Kent and continue ...

[MarkL]

Great analysis as always, Mark. On paper, we only have two more games that we have any realistic chance of winning with Central and Kent. Stranger things have happened, but...

I think we have a chance against Ohio, too. I could be wrong. We will see.

Yeah ... their defense is leaky, not that we have room to speak. I penciled in 12-0 for Ohio. They've been a massive disappointment. But they are in a good position right now.

[jpfalcon09]

Central is the only game BG has a chance of winning, but their offense will give the defense fits. Lots of misdirection and option plays. They hung with Buffalo for three quarters last week. I fully expect this week and Ohio to not be close.

[mbenecke]

Central and Kent are our best shot at winning the rest of the year. Far from guarantees - gotta take care of business.