The final Great Realignment of College Football?

[MarkL]

why does the MAC come to an end if big schools are hopping around?

The MAC will carry on. So will the G5.

I think the answer is, we simply don't know. G5 is in decent shape for the foreseeable future, but the wheels are in motion for realignment to even impact the mid-majors. If the Big 12 chooses to stay together and bring in programs like Cincy, Houston, UCF, and Boise, then those conferences are going to have to fill those remaining spots, etc. etc. Lots of dominoes yet to fall. Toledo, Buffalo, NIU would be prime candidates for the American if things happen the right way.

One thing is for sure, OU and Texas have proven it's every program for itself amidst this new landscape and the MAC (and other G5 conferences) would be stupid to not be having their own discussions about what the future is going to hold for their members.

If I'm the AAC, I'm prepping every welcoming package imaginable should Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, etc get left out from the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac 12's feeding frenzy. There's a possibility that rather than the Big 12 add new members, the AAC comes out of this as a power conference.

It's an odd scenario. The AAC should be every bit as prepared for losing Cincinnati, UCF and Memphis to the Big 12 as they are prepped to gain some Big 12 leftovers.

[Flipper]

I think the most likely outcome in the near term is four power conferences of 16 teams each. Playoff stays at four teams...one from each conference

[FalconTurf]

Do the “real” power football schools believe there are 63 schools like them in college football? The only reason they leave the pool that large is to head off losing seasons

[Schadenfreude]

why does the MAC come to an end if big schools are hopping around?

The MAC will carry on. So will the G5.

I think the answer is, we simply don't know.

I don't think we know what happens down to the last detail but I don't see an existential threat to the G5 conferences right now.

Toledo, Buffalo, NIU would be prime candidates for the American if things happen the right way.

Possibly, I suppose. But are we sure a MAC school would want to be part of that league once the Big 8 is done with it?

The American is mostly southern schools. I sure wouldn't want Bowling Green to be flying our volleyball team to Florida or Texas for conference games.

(And American schools might not want to fly their volleyball teams to Toledo or Buffalo. I could see them looking more closely at Conference USA for new members if and when the time comes.)

[MarkL]

Not my hope, but my guess on how this whole thing goes is the Big 12 dissolves. The other major conferences take their picks, complain nominally about academics, and a few get left behind.
ACC takes WV, rejoining some old rivals. Pac 12 takes Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, making the state of Oklahoma both Pacific and Southeastern. Big Ten takes Kansas and Iowa State, gaining Kansas basketball and the Kansas City market.
The leftovers are Baylor, Kansas State, and TCU. Baylor is a Baptist university and has a recent major scandal, so they are left behind despite an NCAA basketball championship. TCU is also a religious university and not a current power, so they get left out, and Kansas State plays second fiddle in the state of Kansas.
My guess is those three form a new conference and bring on BYU and Liberty, along with their picks of G5 schools.
But I'll also leave the door open for those three jumping to the AAC, making a proper media deal, and making that a solid conference. Far above the remaining G5s.
But all not for long. Massive conferences will tear apart real quick. Too many power players wanting more.

[jpfalcon09]

I think the most likely outcome in the near term is four power conferences of 16 teams each. Playoff stays at four teams...one from each conference

News this morning that the expansion committee may be holding off on plans about a 12-team playoff until the realignment situation gets sorted out. There's a real possibility this eventually happens. Group of 5 would probably have to have their own setup then.

[Schadenfreude]

The leftovers are Baylor, Kansas State, and TCU. Baylor is a Baptist university and has a recent major scandal, so they are left behind despite an NCAA basketball championship. TCU is also a religious university and not a current power, so they get left out, and Kansas State plays second fiddle in the state of Kansas.
My guess is those three form a new conference and bring on BYU and Liberty, along with their picks of G5 schools.
But I'll also leave the door open for those three jumping to the AAC, making a proper media deal, and making that a solid conference. Far above the remaining G5s.

I think the leftovers (and Iowa State could be among them; I'm not sure they move the needle that much for the Big Ten) would bring schools to them under the Big 8 or 12 banner. I could see Brigham Young being one of them. As for the others: I think it's hard to predict, but probably some combination of Mountain West or American Athletic schools.

I also wonder if North Dakota State could end up FBS after all this is done.

[2006Grad]

The thing that surprises me about the UT and OU move is that it seems short sighted. Will they make more money annually via conference money, yes - I have seen 20ish million or so. BUT, you are sure to lose more games, at what point do the fans and big money boosters get less excited about 8-4 seasons and ticket sales and donations start to dry up?!
Yes, the first couple of times Bama comes to town will be cool, but after a couple of 45-17 beat downs, it will lose its luster fast.
Plus who knows what the world of sport entertainment will look like in 5-10 years. If the way we consume content changes, there is a chance big brands like UT and OU could have been making as much staying in the Big12 (plus keeping rivalries and reducing travel)

[jpfalcon09]

The thing that surprises me about the UT and OU move is that it seems short sighted. Will they make more money annually via conference money, yes - I have seen 20ish million or so. BUT, you are sure to lose more games, at what point do the fans and big money boosters get less excited about 8-4 seasons and ticket sales and donations start to dry up?!
Yes, the first couple of times Bama comes to town will be cool, but after a couple of 45-17 beat downs, it will lose its luster fast.
Plus who knows what the world of sport entertainment will look like in 5-10 years. If the way we consume content changes, there is a chance big brands like UT and OU could have been making as much staying in the Big12 (plus keeping rivalries and reducing travel)

There's enough poor SEC teams that OU should win 10 or 11 games annually. UT struggled enough to win in the Big 12, so they have their work cut out for them.

And yes, it's all about money (media rights), and more money (better chance at playoff access).

[2006Grad]

OU has had success against SEC schools as a one off bowl game, BUT that is going to be different with a weekly SEC grind. Will make a bigger difference how they divide the teams up, if it’s just east/west that would favor OU and UT (Bama, auburn, FL and GA all being in the east)
I would argue that the Big12 champ (undefeated/one loss) had a great chance to make the 4 team playoff annually. Of course IF they go to a 12 team playoff you could lose a couple games in the SEC, but I would still rather take my chances aiming for 1 loss in the Big12 then 2/3 losses in the SEC.
if would seem this move is
1. Money
2. Selling recruits on the SEC
3. Making the playoff

[hammb]

OU enters the SEC with the 2nd best coach in the conference and may very well have the best coach by the time they actually start playing in the league if it truly is 4 years down the line. Who knows how long Saban can keep doing this. OU will be fine, and wouldn't shock me one bit if they become a perennial SEC championship game participant.

UT has been a cluster in recent years. The money, facilities, and HS tradition of the state SHOULD make them a powerhouse, but the recent coaches have really struggled to make that the reality. Hell they've been watching some of their state's best players dominate for their rivals. I don't know how they compete in the current SEC if they don't start finally making strides forward.

The SEC jettisoning their flotsam and adding OSU, ND, Clemson, USC, and Oregon would make a ton of sense. They'll end up dropping the "SEC" moniker, but they're positioning themselves as the last one standing. They're going to form their own division, allow teams to play a bunch of "lower division" games against the remnants of FBS D1 teams, OOC, then have a real league of true minor league football. I have zero loyalty or care about who wins that league but as a football fan I'm here for it. The quality of play in that league of college football would be amazing to watch, light years better than what we've watched over the years. There will probably still be room for BG and whatnot to continue having teams, but nobody will be paying any attention to it (if they do now).

[Flipper]

I think the B1G may be looking at the SEC as an existential threat to the following degree.... They absorb a couple of the better Big 12 leftovers and continue West adding USC, Oregon, UCLA , Stanford...etc... to become the nation's first bi coastal truly national conference.

[jpfalcon09]

I think the B1G may be looking at the SEC as an existential threat to the following degree.... They absorb a couple of the better Big 12 leftovers and continue West adding USC, Oregon, UCLA , Stanford...etc... to become the nation's first bi coastal truly national conference.

The SEC is playing chess while the B1G has been playing checkers. SEC adding OU and Texas will bring more eyeballs, while the B1G has added programs from major TV markets who primarily don't win. Any power conference would be wise to steer clear of the Big 12 leftovers. They honestly don't bring much value, and it'll be another entity to split media rights revenue with when the next contracts are negotiated.

I see the remnants of the Big 12 picking off the top programs from the American and Mountain West (Houston, Cincy, Boise, UCF) and praying like hell it ends up in a positive direction.

[jpfalcon09]

Just some of the "news" from the last 24 hours:

Kansas is close to joining the B1G.
WVU having discussions with the ACC.
ULL and LA Tech to join Big 12.
Clemson/Florida State to SEC rumors.

Buckle up.

[Tony4BG]

Just some of the "news" from the last 24 hours:

Kansas is close to joining the B1G.
WVU having discussions with the ACC.
ULL and LA Tech to join Big 12.
Clemson/Florida State to SEC rumors.

Buckle up.

I took the tweet as recap of the silliness people were tweeting not reliable updates