Bowling Green Over/Under 3.5 wins

[Schadenfreude]

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/3 ... -teams-now

Bill Connelly likes the over on BG's 3.5 win total.

I'm glad to see others see what I'm seeing. I rarely put money down on anything, but this was too good to pass up.

[Flipper]

His rationale seems to be...more or less..."they aren't contenders, but they aren't doormats"

Hardly a ringing endorsement

[mbenecke]

His rationale seems to be...more or less..."they aren't contenders, but they aren't doormats"

Hardly a ringing endorsement

After the past 6 seasons, not being a pushover is music to my ears. Lol

Still a long way to go to be a contender, though. And that needs to be the goal.

[MarkL]

It is far easier to go overnight from champs to doormats than it is doormats to champs. It seems the team is trending the right direction. Having Bill C suggesting 5 or 6 wins is attainable is a major deal. Last time the team won more than 4 a season? 2015, right before Jinks took the team overnight from champs to doormats.

[Schadenfreude]

I'm taking the over because I like our chances against these schools:
Eastern Kentucky, Akron, Ohio, Buffalo

Wins against those schools would be enough for the over to prevail.

I also think we have a shot at a couple more wins to get bowl eligible. Two wins against this group gets it done:
UCLA, Mississippi State, Marshall, Kent State, Miami, Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan

That schedule does us no favors. But I think we have a decent shot against Kent State. One more win is enough, and I could see us getting another win at home with Marshall or in MAC play, perhaps against Miami or one of those Michigan schools.

[Flipper]

Year four of a coaching regime with a QB who's been in college systems for what...8 years?...you'd BETTER be looking at at least four wins, especially when you play in what is arguably the worst FBS conference going today.

[hammb]

I'd love to be wrong, but I still don't see the optimism. Sure, we could end up over 3.5 wins, given the state of the MAC, but I cannot help but remember that we overperformed our pythagorean record LAST year to get to 4 wins. If this team plays exactly the same the math would put us at 3 wins this season. I'll readily admit the flaws in that metric for college football (especially given the disparity when playing the P5), but it does back up my impression that we spent a large part of the season looking worse than you'd expect a 4 win team to look. In MAC play we won 2 games, but our 6 losses only 1 of them was by a TD. Overall we were outscored in MAC play 288-191, that doesn't scream a team that is destined to win a bunch more games this year...

We were also a net postiive (+1) in turnover ratio last year, which is hard to do for a 4-8 team. Turnovers are fickle, and we relied upon them to just be competitive (which we still largely weren't). Creating turnovers, much though we may like to think it is, isn't really a repeatable formula.

I know, I'm always the pessimist with this team at this point, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us hit the under 3.5 mark. Unless this coach and QB are going to suddenly find a way to efficiently put up points, this program is spinning its wheels.

[jpfalcon09]

Looks like the ESPN article got SL's attention.

https://twitter.com/CoachLoefflerBG/sta ... TLRxg&s=19

[mbenecke]

Looks like the ESPN article got SL's attention.

https://twitter.com/CoachLoefflerBG/sta ... TLRxg&s=19

I feel like that’s kind of a wild thing for a college football coach to tweet, but I also love the energy. It feels like the program is locked and loaded for the season, and they believe they’re going to make a big jump. Time will tell, but I like seeing the program get its swagger back.

Also, the cocky Scot era is going to melt this board down. Can’t wait. Lol

[jpfalcon09]

I'm taking the over because I like our chances against these schools:
Eastern Kentucky, Akron, Ohio, Buffalo

Wins against those schools would be enough for the over to prevail.

I also think we have a shot at a couple more wins to get bowl eligible. Two wins against this group gets it done:
UCLA, Mississippi State, Marshall, Kent State, Miami, Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan

That schedule does us no favors. But I think we have a decent shot against Kent State. One more win is enough, and I could see us getting another win at home with Marshall or in MAC play, perhaps against Miami or one of those Michigan schools.

My updated internals following transfer season has BG as the clear cut favorite vs. EKU and is leaning them against Akron, Ohio, and Buffalo. Kent State game is statisically a toss-up with BG being home. The Ohio game could be a trap as it's the final regular season game of the year, and if things go south (i.e. coaching change) then who knows.

I can see BG winning a game this year they really have no business in winning, similar to last year vs. Minnesota (not taking anything away from the players). CMU and Toledo seem like good candidates for that. The OOC schedule is brutal, even Marshall at home is going to be a tough game regardless of how good the team is this season.

[Schadenfreude]

I also love the energy. It feels like the program is locked and loaded for the season, and they believe they’re going to make a big jump. Time will tell, but I like seeing the program get its swagger back.

He really seems to believe this team is getting better. He seems all in on that. Some interviews I've heard of players suggest they are all in, too. That seems like a good thing.

[lookimrory]

is it possible for the line to get so heavily slanted that it moves to o/u 4? Right now the odds are
bovada - 160
draft kings -150
betmgm - 165!!

We're the most slanted o/u in the country by a mile, but I don't know if on a 12 game schedule that would bump bg to 4 to try and get juice on the other side

[lookimrory]

nvm bovada is now -170

[Flipper]

It is far easier to go overnight from champs to doormats than it is doormats to champs. It seems the team is trending the right direction. Having Bill C suggesting 5 or 6 wins is attainable is a major deal. Last time the team won more than 4 a season? 2015, right before Jinks took the team overnight from champs to doormats.

I'm sorry...five or six wins as a goal when your head coach is in season four is a pathetically, unacceptably low bar...don't want to hear anything more about Jinks...those days are long gone. The time to prove it...and by prove it be a GOOD football team on both sides of the ball ...is now.

My worry is that we'll get six wins, the lazy administration will say "ok...you can stay" and we'll be stuck with him until they get off there asses and make a change at AD

[Schadenfreude]

It is far easier to go overnight from champs to doormats than it is doormats to champs. It seems the team is trending the right direction. Having Bill C suggesting 5 or 6 wins is attainable is a major deal. Last time the team won more than 4 a season? 2015, right before Jinks took the team overnight from champs to doormats.

I'm sorry...five or six wins as a goal when your head coach is in season four is a pathetically, unacceptably low bar...

I don't see anyone saying five or six wins is the goal. Certainly I don't see MarkL here saying that.

I do see 6-6 as a possible outcome given the difficulty of this schedule. This team showed tremendous improvement last season. It could again demonstrate tremendous improvement and only reach 6-6. I'd obviously like to see even more improvement. We'll see.

My worry is that we'll get six wins, the lazy administration will say "ok...you can stay" and we'll be stuck with him until they get off there asses and make a change at AD

If the team goes 6-6 and loses several other close ones, staying the course might well be a reasonable decision given the difficulty of this season's schedule and given the fact that Loeffler still has another year on his contract. Bowling Green drew close to the toughest possible crossover schedule and also has three tough nonconference opponents.

This schedule is certainly more challenging than the schedule Dave Clawson faced in 2012 when he went 8-5 in his Year 4. Instead of Idaho (1-11 in 2012) at home, Loeffler gets Marshall (7-6 in 2021). And instead of Eastern Michigan (2-10 in 2012) and UMass (1-11) in conference play, Loeffler gets Central Michigan (9-4 in 2021) and Western Michigan (8-5).

That said, it remains to be seen how much benefit of doubt Loeffler gets. I don't have any inside information, but I'd be surprised if Moosbrugger is here much longer. A new athletic director might be predisposed toward making a quick change, even if it costs money, since he (or she) can blame the added expense on the last guy.