vs. Kent State (11/9)

[BillyLP]

I'm just curious, what has been the record of this projection system so far this season? Both true W-L and ATS.

[jpfalcon09]

I'm just curious, what has been the record of this projection system so far this season? Both true W-L and ATS.

For all games or just BG?

[BillyLP]

I'm just curious, what has been the record of this projection system so far this season? Both true W-L and ATS.

For all games or just BG?

I was just asking about BG, though if you have it for all games I'd be curious, too!

[jpfalcon09]

I'm just curious, what has been the record of this projection system so far this season? Both true W-L and ATS.

For all games or just BG?

I was just asking about BG, though if you have it for all games I'd be curious, too!

I could go back and check for BG. NCAAF as a whole would take forever.

[jpfalcon09]

I'm just curious, what has been the record of this projection system so far this season? Both true W-L and ATS.

For all games or just BG?

I was just asking about BG, though if you have it for all games I'd be curious, too!

So, model projections in parenthesis and actual outcome follows.

UCLA (+20), BG lost by 28, miss
EKU had no prediction
Marshall (+18) BG wins by 3, hit
Miss St. (+31.5) BG loses by 31, hit
Akron (-8), BG wins by 3, miss
Buffalo (+4), BG loses by 31, miss
Miami (+9), BG wins by 4, hit
CMU (+4), BG wins by 16, hit
WMU (-4.5), BG wins by 4, miss

So 4-4 ATS, 5-3 S/U.

[BGSU33]

Realistically, this is probably BG's best chance at a win the rest of the season to secure a bowl bid and stay in the MAC East race. But, I still think it's going to be a loss. Look, the fact that we're tied for first in November alone is outstanding, and it feels fantastic after the last 6 years of misery that we've gone through. But these next 3 games, especially the last two, are going to be mountains to climb. Toledo and Ohio are both division leaders and both games are on the road. Gulp...

Everything we do offensively seems like a struggle, even when we manage to move the ball downfield. We dink and dunk our way to some points, but we can't rely on our offense to get into a shootout with any of these three remaining teams. They're all way more explosive and productive than BG is. Kent State has a really good offensive quartet at QB/RB/WR (Schlee, Cooper, Cephas and Walker) that I just don't believe our offense can match even if our defense can slow them down. Now, that said, they have looked out of sorts at times in MAC play this season, which has ultimately derailed their hopes at an East title. So maybe BG can catch them in another flat spot. However, Kent State is actually coming off of one of those games last week and I expect them to rebound. Still, if there's another win to be had this season for BG, this is probably the game. All three of BG's remaining games are "must-win" games. And it all begins with the next one, and that is this one. That's why the games aren't played on paper.

Dequan Finn is hurt for Toledo (he injured his throwing shoulder injury on the last play of the Buffalo game) and his return is still up in the air. Jason Candle has been extremely hush-hush about the injury, which has led to some speculation that Finn could be out for the year. That would be a massive blow. Candle finally said something several days ago that he hopes to have Finn back "at some point" this year, but until he actually does return, that's a big cloud hanging over their head without him. That is a huge loss if he can't play again. While Gleason looked decent in his absence vs EMU, that Toledo offense isn't the same without Finn running it when he's healthy. It sounds like Finn is probably going to miss the Ball State game too. If....IF.... he does not play for UT in the BG game either, that would be a huge bonus for BG. That would be BG's silver lining if there ever was one. But still, this is Toledo and they essentially beat BG anytime we play for the better part of a decade and change now.

I see no way in hell we're beating Ohio as they're on a mission right now and no one seems to be able to slow them down now. Sadly, I can see BG limping into this game after back-to-back losses to Kent State and Toledo with MACC hopes already gone and needed a win here to get to a bowl. This isn't the place you're going to want to try and find it if that's the case. Ohio's offense is outstandingly productive with Rourke leading the way with eye-popping production. Ohio is my pick to win the MACC and I think Rourke is going to win MAC Player of the Year in the process. I think Ohio is this year's version of NIU from last season (a team that everyone picked low and they come out of nowhere and win it all). BG simply can't keep pace with OU, especially on the road where they've been slaughtering good MAC teams that come in with high aspirations at the end of the year (as Buffalo found out last week).

[BillyLP]

I'm just curious, what has been the record of this projection system so far this season? Both true W-L and ATS.

For all games or just BG?

I was just asking about BG, though if you have it for all games I'd be curious, too!

So, model projections in parenthesis and actual outcome follows.

UCLA (+20), BG lost by 28, miss
EKU had no prediction
Marshall (+18) BG wins by 3, hit
Miss St. (+31.5) BG loses by 31, hit
Akron (-8), BG wins by 3, miss
Buffalo (+4), BG loses by 31, miss
Miami (+9), BG wins by 4, hit
CMU (+4), BG wins by 16, hit
WMU (-4.5), BG wins by 4, miss

So 4-4 ATS, 5-3 S/U.

Thanks!

[jpfalcon09]

Realistically, this is probably BG's best chance at a win the rest of the season to secure a bowl bid and stay in the MAC East race. But, I still think it's going to be a loss. Look, the fact that we're tied for first in November alone is outstanding, and it feels fantastic after the last 6 years of misery that we've gone through. But these next 3 games, especially the last two, are going to be mountains to climb. Toledo and Ohio are both division leaders and both games are on the road. Gulp...

Everything we do offensively seems like a struggle, even when we manage to move the ball downfield. We dink and dunk our way to some points, but we can't rely on our offense to get into a shootout with any of these three remaining teams. They're all way more explosive and productive than BG is. Kent State has a really good offensive quartet at QB/RB/WR (Schlee, Cooper, Cephas and Walker) that I just don't believe our offense can match even if our defense can slow them down. Now, that said, they have looked out of sorts at times in MAC play this season, which has ultimately derailed their hopes at an East title. So maybe BG can catch them in another flat spot. However, Kent State is actually coming off of one of those games last week and I expect them to rebound. Still, if there's another win to be had this season for BG, this is probably the game. All three of BG's remaining games are "must-win" games. And it all begins with the next one, and that is this one. That's why the games aren't played on paper.

Dequan Finn is hurt for Toledo (he injured his throwing shoulder injury on the last play of the Buffalo game) and his return is still up in the air. Jason Candle has been extremely hush-hush about the injury, which has led to some speculation that Finn could be out for the year. That would be a massive blow. Candle finally said something several days ago that he hopes to have Finn back "at some point" this year, but until he actually does return, that's a big cloud hanging over their head without him. That is a huge loss if he can't play again. While Gleason looked decent in his absence vs EMU, that Toledo offense isn't the same without Finn running it when he's healthy. It sounds like Finn is probably going to miss the Ball State game too. If....IF.... he does not play for UT in the BG game either, that would be a huge bonus for BG. That would be BG's silver lining if there ever was one. But still, this is Toledo and they essentially beat BG anytime we play for the better part of a decade and change now.

I see no way in hell we're beating Ohio as they're on a mission right now and no one seems to be able to slow them down now. Sadly, I can see BG limping into this game after back-to-back losses to Kent State and Toledo with MACC hopes already gone and needed a win here to get to a bowl. This isn't the place you're going to want to try and find it if that's the case. Ohio's offense is outstandingly productive with Rourke leading the way with eye-popping production. Ohio is my pick to win the MACC and I think Rourke is going to win MAC Player of the Year in the process. I think Ohio is this year's version of NIU from last season (a team that everyone picked low and they come out of nowhere and win it all). BG simply can't keep pace with OU, especially on the road where they've been slaughtering good MAC teams that come in with high aspirations at the end of the year (as Buffalo found out last week).

Kent is a winnable game. Cephas and Walker missed the Ball State game. Don't know their status for tomorrow but from what I've read on the Kent board it doesn't sound too optimistic. Focus on Cooper, make Schlee beat you with a set of young receivers. X-factor is if BG can move the ball offensively and sustain drives. Kent defense is the worst out of the remaining three games so I'm hopeful we'll see some improvement in that. It'll be another close game but if things fall in BG's favor personnel wise I like their chances. The other games I think you have to worry about the week of. Injuries can propel or wreak havoc this time of year, so we'll see where Toledo and Ohio are (and BG) in those respects in the coming weeks.

[Schadenfreude]

Everything we do offensively seems like a struggle, even when we manage to move the ball downfield. We dink and dunk our way to some points, but we can't rely on our offense to get into a shootout with any of these three remaining teams. They're all way more explosive and productive than BG is. Kent State has a really good offensive quartet at QB/RB/WR (Schlee, Cooper, Cephas and Walker) that I just don't believe our offense can match even if our defense can slow them down. Now, that said, they have looked out of sorts at times in MAC play this season, which has ultimately derailed their hopes at an East title. So maybe BG can catch them in another flat spot. However, Kent State is actually coming off of one of those games last week and I expect them to rebound.

I feel like this Falcon offense is so close to putting it all together. It would not surprise me if things finally start clicking more against Kent State. The Falcons cut way down on the penalties last week against Western Michigan. With a bit better pass protection or a bit more room to work in the Flashes' secondary, we could see a new level of effectiveness when the Falcons have the ball.

[Flipper]

I'm thinking this game defines the season....no?

[mbenecke]

I'm thinking this game defines the season....no?

To an extent, yes.

But if they lose this game and end up winning another and going to a bowl anyway, it lessens the meaning.

I'm still holding out hope for a MAC East division championship and a trip to Detroit. I guess we'll see!

[Schadenfreude]

I'm thinking this game defines the season....no?

Potentially. But I'll say this: Toledo does not look invincible.

[jpfalcon09]

I'm thinking this game defines the season....no?

Perhaps. At this stage of the season it's one week at a time. Win tonight, get some help from CMU over Buffalo, and the Toledo game could very well define the season. Tonight is definitely the path of least resistance to getting bowl eligible though.

[BillyLP]

I'm thinking this game defines the season....no?

Perhaps. At this stage of the season it's one week at a time. Win tonight, get some help from CMU over Buffalo, and the Toledo game could very well define the season. Tonight is definitely the path of least resistance to getting bowl eligible though.

Bowl eligible was my acceptable result before the season started, and tonight definitely seems like the best shot of getting there, so I would agree that it is potentially season-defining.

[mbenecke]

I'm thinking this game defines the season....no?

Perhaps. At this stage of the season it's one week at a time. Win tonight, get some help from CMU over Buffalo, and the Toledo game could very well define the season. Tonight is definitely the path of least resistance to getting bowl eligible though.

Bowl eligible was my acceptable result before the season started, and tonight definitely seems like the best shot of getting there, so I would agree that it is potentially season-defining.

In a way, the EKU game was season-defining if we don't win another game. We would be 6-4 and already bowl eligible, if we had handled our business in that one.