Schadenfreude wrote:
Question is: How high will Omar go?
Did the Boise State game hurt him? How much?
If Omar could move from deep in the first round to a top five pick, that might be worth staying another year.
(I'm not saying Omar is deep in the first round, just laying out a scenario in which it might make sense for him to stay).
The Boise game hurt Omar in the eyes of scouts...it showed weakness. The Wisconsin game also hurt him in the eys of scouts, showing weaknesses as well.
Right now I doubt very seriously if Omar is higher than the 3rd QB taken in the draft this year. Leinart is the unquestioned #1 QB coming into next year's draft. What has hurt Omar, more than anything he could've done himself, is the development of Vince Young. VY has become a legit passer, improving on defensive recognition & accuracy. He's always been an outstanding athlete & leader, so those are givens with him. I think he's become a mid to high first rounder based on his play this season (if he chooses to leave early). If both guys leave early, I think Omar would be the 3rd pick.
If I'm a scout here's what I feel about Omar:
Positives:
Strong Arm
Accuracy
Good size
Moves in pocket while looking downfield
Huge Numbers in red zone
Previous success of MAC QBs bodes well
Negatives:
Offense...call it gimmicky or not it is drastically different than an NFL offense. Always shotgun.
Doesn't call his own audibles...more than just a lack of ability it shows a lack of confidence by the coaching staff in his abilities.
Doesn't use god given athleticism to make plays with his legs, almost refuses to run.
Drops head in the heat of intense pressure, looks at blitzers.
Despite prevous success, still MAC competition.
LACK OF LEADERSHIP
Poor performances in national spotlight games.
Poor mechanics on release
Tendency to disappear at times in games
Tries to do too much at times...sometimes overconfident in arm.
In the end I put Omar as a mid to late first rounder if he comes out this year. He has things to improve upon, and some of them are MAJOR questionmarks. He has shown absolutely no leadership of his football team in his career, and that's the biggest question mark to me. I would need to see a personality test, because a true franchise QB should be a leader, and we haven't seen that.
I doing a breakdown like this its probably a coin toss whether Omar stays or goes. Going into the season we read so much top 10 draft hype that I thought it was a foregone conclusion that he'd bolt for the NFL this year. Seeing this season have not seen the type of improvement that would make him a top 10 pick, in my eyes. I put him on the same level as Roethlisberger as a prospect...tons of talent, but not polished yet. Where he went in the draft would be mostly dependent on where teams that needed QBs were picking.
One matter that could, although I'm not 100% buying into it, effect his future is his relationship with the coaching staff. I have read on NFL messageboards from people who claim to know players and whatnot that Omar & the coaching staff is not 100% on the same page. Spart could possibly give us more info, and I don't really think the sources are entirely credible, but thought I'd throw it out there. Basically some say that Coach Brandon unfairly criticized Omar after the UT game last year (and he was harsher than I'd expect). These internet rumor-mongers also claim that Omar does NOT like this audible system that we run, and that he thinks they're hampering his NFL draft stock (which it absolutely does). I put next to nil credence in any of this, but if there is even an ounce of truth to this (which I doubt) it could play in his future decisions.