BG in the drivers seat?
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:24 pm
We still need help winning the division, but we look like we are in very good shape when it comes to possibly earning an invitation to a bowl game.
In fact, by the looks of things, nine wins makes us an absolute lock, because only one other MAC team is even mathematically capable of getting nine wins at this point -- and, at 5-3, Ball State isn't gonna get that done, not with trips to Illinois and Indiana planned these next two weeks.
I think eight wins would probably earn the Falcons a bowl game.
And seven wins might be enough.
Remember that there are only two ways for a team with less than a winning record to play in a bowl game:
1. Finish .500 in a conference with bowl obligations and no other team available in the conference to fill them.
2. Win the conference championship. The NCAA historically has granted permission for league champions with less than a winning record play in a bowl game. This is how North Texas ended up in the New Orleans bowl a couple years back at 5-6.
Otherwise, seven wins is the magic number -- 7-5, to be precise.
And with medocrity reigning supreme this year in the MAC, a lot of teams will fall short of seven wins. Probably most of them.
In fact, it may come down to three-to-five MAC teams having the magic seven wins needed for bowl consideration.
I like the Falcons' chances of being in that group. They need to win three out of the next five games (against Ohio, Akron, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo and Toledo) to lock in a winning 7-5 record.
Getting that done is no gimmie. The Falcons will need to earn it every week.
But winning three out of five, against that schedule, looks easier than the challenge faced by most of the rest of the league right now. Here's a run down, roughly ordered by the chance they have to get to seven wins:
Best shots:
Central Michigan (4-4): Needs to win three out of next four: at Kent State, at Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, at Akron
Ball State (5-3): Needs to win two out of next four: at Illinois, at Indiana, Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Miami (4-4): Needs to win three out of next four: at Vanderbilt, Buffalo, Akron, at Ohio.
Akron (3-4): Needs to win four out of next five: at Buffalo, at Bowling Green, Ohio, at Miami, Central Michigan.
On the ropes:
Buffalo (3-5): Needs to win next four: Akron, at Miami, Bowling Green, Kent State
Toledo (3-5): Needs to win next four: Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, at Ball State, at Bowling Green
Kent State (3-5): Needs to win next four: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Temple, at Buffalo
Ohio (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Bowling Green, Temple, at Akron, Miami.
Western Michigan (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, at Iowa, Temple.
Temple (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Ohio, Penn State, Kent State, at Western Michigan.
Stick a fork in ‘em:
Eastern Michigan (2-6)
Northern Illinois (1-7)
Note: The above records include I-AA wins, one of which may be counted toward bowl eligibility as long as the opponent is essentially using the maximum number of football scholarships available in I-AA. I don't know for a fact that wins over Liberty (Toledo) and Delaware State (Kent State) may be counted.
Anyway, you get the idea.
I'm curious what you all think.
In fact, by the looks of things, nine wins makes us an absolute lock, because only one other MAC team is even mathematically capable of getting nine wins at this point -- and, at 5-3, Ball State isn't gonna get that done, not with trips to Illinois and Indiana planned these next two weeks.
I think eight wins would probably earn the Falcons a bowl game.
And seven wins might be enough.
Remember that there are only two ways for a team with less than a winning record to play in a bowl game:
1. Finish .500 in a conference with bowl obligations and no other team available in the conference to fill them.
2. Win the conference championship. The NCAA historically has granted permission for league champions with less than a winning record play in a bowl game. This is how North Texas ended up in the New Orleans bowl a couple years back at 5-6.
Otherwise, seven wins is the magic number -- 7-5, to be precise.
And with medocrity reigning supreme this year in the MAC, a lot of teams will fall short of seven wins. Probably most of them.
In fact, it may come down to three-to-five MAC teams having the magic seven wins needed for bowl consideration.
I like the Falcons' chances of being in that group. They need to win three out of the next five games (against Ohio, Akron, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo and Toledo) to lock in a winning 7-5 record.
Getting that done is no gimmie. The Falcons will need to earn it every week.
But winning three out of five, against that schedule, looks easier than the challenge faced by most of the rest of the league right now. Here's a run down, roughly ordered by the chance they have to get to seven wins:
Best shots:
Central Michigan (4-4): Needs to win three out of next four: at Kent State, at Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, at Akron
Ball State (5-3): Needs to win two out of next four: at Illinois, at Indiana, Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Miami (4-4): Needs to win three out of next four: at Vanderbilt, Buffalo, Akron, at Ohio.
Akron (3-4): Needs to win four out of next five: at Buffalo, at Bowling Green, Ohio, at Miami, Central Michigan.
On the ropes:
Buffalo (3-5): Needs to win next four: Akron, at Miami, Bowling Green, Kent State
Toledo (3-5): Needs to win next four: Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, at Ball State, at Bowling Green
Kent State (3-5): Needs to win next four: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Temple, at Buffalo
Ohio (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Bowling Green, Temple, at Akron, Miami.
Western Michigan (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, at Iowa, Temple.
Temple (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Ohio, Penn State, Kent State, at Western Michigan.
Stick a fork in ‘em:
Eastern Michigan (2-6)
Northern Illinois (1-7)
Note: The above records include I-AA wins, one of which may be counted toward bowl eligibility as long as the opponent is essentially using the maximum number of football scholarships available in I-AA. I don't know for a fact that wins over Liberty (Toledo) and Delaware State (Kent State) may be counted.
Anyway, you get the idea.
I'm curious what you all think.
)
