The Omnibus Beat Toledo Thread.

[NWLB]

I think this is the best equipped team to travel to the glassbowl in ten years. I think the UT team the Falcons will face is much like that we faced in 1994 season.

BGSU is clearly, and by a wide margin, a better team. UT fans, and the rocket team itself don't believe that, despite ample evidence to contrary. The UT team is being told it controls its own fate, that it owns its house, and it will take care of business against BGSU. In truth, UT is a more deeply flawed team than Marshall was. Their defense is porous against highly motivated, high scoring offenses. UT has not faced either a sustained or quality passing attack all season long. UT's offense has shown a clear pattern throughout the entire season. UT has no punter.

In counterpoint UT's offense is run by a QB who is consistent, in an system which is not complex, but is tricky to defend. Their lack of a punter has justified what is otherwise considered an insane habit of almost always trying to advance on 4th down, which they have had success with. With an offense that is well suited to short yardage gains, this has allowed UT to eat great amounts of clock, and score some points.

Ultimately, this game will hinge on BGSU being able to move the ball, and score. It is around this, that every other aspect of the game will hinge.

The Mental Games.

BG lost to a BCS bound OU, and blew an early game against NIU. UT was blown out in historic fashion by two middle-of-the-road low major programs. BG doesn't feel it should have lost to NIU, and made a good showing of its Ok.U game. BG has taken its wraith out on every team since then, getting better with each step.

UT can try, but it will never erase the scar of those two embarrassments which reflected poorly on the rockets character as much as their play. It has been less than overwhelming against good and bad teams in the MAC, and now faces the best team they'll play all season. UT may talk the talk, but they can't fully believe it. IF they actually do, they are more vulnerable than if they don't.

BGSU has had an entire season to reconcile itself to the fact it can not control its status for the title game. BGSU is ranked, for the third time in as many years. BG has known it would get ranked so long as it beat Marshall, which it did in resounding fashion. The ranking provides a non-distracting motivation to be confident and focused. BGSU knows a bowl bid of some kind is in the offing if they win next week. The lack of specificity in which bowl, allows BGSU to use it as motivation without worrying about being in the title game. Even a loss doesn't erase the possibility of post season play, which makes for even less negative pressure. There is no intimidation which either UT as a team, nor the road trip north presents. Thus, BGSU can practice the next 8 days focused on what will let them win.

UT is still on razors edge having to beat BG for any hope of a post season. UT is still mentally distracted with the teeter totter of games and results which effect their title game hopes and bowl prospects. UT is much less certain of what to expect from BGSU than the Falcons are of the rockets. UT is much less certain of what they are really playing for, or the result of a possible loss.

What leads to what in 8 days?

UT has clear patterns which can be exploited. UT always seems to struggle on offense in the first quarter. They stabilize in the second quarter, but don't put teams away. It is in the third quarter that UT has typically rallied and put the game into their own hands to lose. They tend to play even in the fourth quarter, benefiting from other teams trying to catch up. They have often given up points in the fourth quarter which have nearly cost them several games. UT's offense requires rhythm and flow, and doesn't improvise well. UT's QB is not a deep pass threat.

Hence, they are vulnerable to teams overwhelming them early. They do not make adjustments well during the first half. If they can be stalled in the third quarter, they will lose. If a game is close in the fourth quarter, they can be rallied on.

There are many ways BGSU can win this game. The Falcons could replicate the 1994 road win, in that they could knock UT off its feet early, and coast along to victory. BGSU could face an intense early opposition, and pull away as it did against Marshall. However I don't think this will be either a high score game for both sides, nor a close game.

BGSU can't assume it will be able to score points at will, even if it does so early. Even if we aren't scoring successfully, at no point should BGSU doubt it can rally on UT. UT does not present anything BGSU hasn't already faced and blown out.

The danger is in UT going on long marches that produce points. Against NIU, the rockets ate huge sums of time on scoring drives. Much the same approach was used by NIU to beat a less experience, less confident BGSU team. BGSU is vastly better now, but it must be mindful of the time.

UT was able to mount long drives mostly due to their having no punter. Forth down plays gave UT life it wouldn't normally have. In that, there is also a point for BG to focus on. If BGSU can stall the rockets in their side of the field, they will force the rockets to punt, fake punt, or something even dumber. UT's punting is so bad, it should mean outstanding field position and many BGSU points.

UT's offense is really very simple. UT's offense succeeds because as simplistic as it may be, it requires near perfect defensive reaction to stop.

Every pass play has a short yardage option. UT sacrifices deep passing in favor of completions and yards after the catch. Hence, lots of yardage and high completion rates.

In passing plays where the QB stays in the pocket, a single RB will faint a block, and if clear, run east or west as a dump-off option. If there are two RBs, they will faint a block, then run up the middle, one stopping short, the other going deep up the middle. With three WRs to either side, typically one will block, and another double back for a screen pass. If the QB rolls outs to either side, assuming nobody is wide open deep, or if a blitz is on, the RB-if any-runs ahead, or a WR holds five or ten yards deep. The DB is typically left to either stick with his receiver, or leave him open and charge the QB. The second the DB breaks for the QB, he lofts the ball over the defenses head to the WR or the RB ahead of him. If the DB doesn't bite, the QB just runs ahead.

It succeeds best when a team like NIU makes no adjustment during an entire game. When a defense mixes up coverage, throws a lot of different looks at the rockets, it stops UT. This is a higher risk approach, since if coverage isn't perfect, the very nature of the rocket offense opens up deeper passing options.

UT is the only offense that runs this style in the MAC. It has the same virtue of running a very good option offense. Both because it is rare and hard to prepare for, and because it has the same "bait and switch" quality which requires focus to defend.

Lesser MAC teams, with less talent, less experience, and less motivation haven't been able to stop UT enough. Those that could, haven't had enough offense to make stopping them matter. NIU's loss doesn't impress me because of the static approach they took against UT, and the problems they have on offense.

BGSU must stop UT's return game when it punts or kicks off and keep the rockets deep in their own territory. It must look to stop the rockets on the blue side of the 50 yard line. The deeper in their territory the rockets face forth down, the more they will be forced to punt. This specific goal on its own, could be the difference in the game.

Against Marshall, BGSU had a lot of success with tipping passes near the line. In one case, the Falcons returned a tip for a TD. In two different games, in which the opposing defense was enjoying success against UT, their QB was either intercepted or had passes batted down near the line.

If BGSU has any early success in pressuring the rocket QB, then it needs to cut the dogs loose and attack relentlessly. It will force their QB into exactly the situations he is most prone to make mistakes. He can not improvise well and he is a lousy deep pass threat. BG needs to rely on its secondary to handle pass, and get everybody else hunting for the QBs skull.

If and when UT does punt, it uses a special "short-bus formation," to protect the kicker. They love running fakes, mostly because they have too. I hate punters running fakes. But thats another story. BG should play it safe and focus on the return.

BGSU should be aware of the cheap shots that will come. First, to avoid retaliation penalties. Second, to avoid getting our talent hurt by the bancroft thugs.

If the Falcons stay grounded, stay intense, and play as well as they are able to on average, they can and will win this game.

[Ornithologist]

Holy crap. When you post a whole thesis like this I fall asleep about the third line.

[Bleeding Orange]

NWLB, I managed to stay awake through it (barely!) and I was thoroughly impressed. Not only were all of your points well thought out and insightful, you also had only TWO gramatical errors! I'm a nerd, I pick up on these things...

Props once again, and I think much of what you said will come true on Nov. 23!

[Flipper]

Is George Soros or someone paying you by the word? Is this some sort of poll related mischief? If so, I think the election was a couple of weeks ago. I thought I saw it in the papers while I was reading the funnies...heh...that Garfield sure does like lasagna.

That's what PJ Pope is going to look like next week. He's going to go through UT's defense (and I call it a defense with great irony in mind)
like Garfield goes through lasagna.

Hart, those guys with the names that are hard to spell, Grubb and Warren will push UT's tiny, juvenile Dline around like they were little babies in strollers.

The game will be competitive for about as long as the elastic holds in the waistband of Coach Amstutz' shorts

[TG1996]

The game will be competitive for about as long as the elastic holds in the waistband of Coach Amstutz' shorts

The game stopped being competitive on June 12, 1984? Whoa.

[BGDrew]

Great analysis of the game, this is going to be one for the ages.

[NWLB]

Some people go for grammatical perfection. I bat for average. Plus I type very very fast and I don't proof read enough. I've watched every UT game on TV at least twice if you count backing up the DVR and replaying things. Frankly, a trained monkey with a reel of Super 8 and a flashlight could break down their offense.

There have only been two years in the last 12 I think BGSU couldn't realistically beat UT. Every other year, I have felt we had enough talent to get the job done. A few years, we came out flat and got run over. Others, we just simply blew it. Looking at this years game, our team has left me with the fewest question marks and seems to have the right mindset.

[Warthog]

NWLB,
Ever think of posting your dissertations in the "Guest Columns" sections instead of on the message boards? :duh: