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Not looking good, but the MAC east race is still open. Out clearly in front is Temple. Here's the remaining games:

Temple: Miami, @Akron, Kent, @Ohio
Buffalo: Ohio, @Miami, @Kent
Kent: @Akron, @Temple, Buffalo
Akron: Kent, Temple, @BG, EMU
Ohio: @Buffalo, NIU, Temple
Miami: @Temple, BG, Buffalo
BG: @Miami, Akron, Toledo

Obviously, we MUST win out if we want to dream of an east title. So let's say we win out ... our teams of interest are now Temple, Kent, and Ohio, who all still play each other except for Kent already beating Ohio. I do believe Ohio is on the way down. Temple is playing their best of the season, and Kent keeps finding ways to win. So here's the most likely scenario that would work:

Temple: Lose to Ohio and Kent. Add in losing to Miami and/or Akron for security (yeah, keep dreaming...). If we finish tied with Temple, I really don't know how that tie-breaker works but knowing our luck in tie-breakers I'm guessing it would fall in their favor.
Kent: Lose to Buffalo or Akron. They lose 1, we've got a tie breaker over them.
Ohio: Lose to Buffalo and NIU. If they only lose one more, they've still got a tie-breaker over us, so they need to lose two more.

Likely? Not even close. Possibly? Yes. That all being said ... 7-5 is bowl eligible, MAC title game or not. We don't control any of the teams above us, but we can hope. One thing I can say for sure ... if Temple quits winning, the east race gets very interesting.

MarkL wrote:Not looking good, but the MAC east race is still open. Out clearly in front is Temple. Here's the remaining games:

Temple: Miami, @Akron, Kent, @Ohio
Buffalo: Ohio, @Miami, @Kent
Kent: @Akron, @Temple, Buffalo
Akron: Kent, Temple, @BG, EMU
Ohio: @Buffalo, NIU, Temple
Miami: @Temple, BG, Buffalo
BG: @Miami, Akron, Toledo

Obviously, we MUST win out if we want to dream of an east title. So let's say we win out ... our teams of interest are now Temple, Kent, and Ohio, who all still play each other except for Kent already beating Ohio. I do believe Ohio is on the way down. Temple is playing their best of the season, and Kent keeps finding ways to win. So here's the most likely scenario that would work:

Temple: Lose to Ohio and Kent. Add in losing to Miami and/or Akron for security (yeah, keep dreaming...). If we finish tied with Temple, I really don't know how that tie-breaker works but knowing our luck in tie-breakers I'm guessing it would fall in their favor.
Kent: Lose to Buffalo or Akron. They lose 1, we've got a tie breaker over them.
Ohio: Lose to Buffalo and NIU. If they only lose one more, they've still got a tie-breaker over us, so they need to lose two more.

Likely? Not even close. Possibly? Yes. That all being said ... 7-5 is bowl eligible, MAC title game or not. We don't control any of the teams above us, but we can hope. One thing I can say for sure ... if Temple quits winning, the east race gets very interesting.

Well Mark, here's my 2 cents. Obviously, we do have to win out. Certainly if we were to lose to either Miami or Akron, this is all moot because we don't deserve to go bowling or to the MAC Championship with a loss to either of those doormats.

Temple has to play Kent and Ohio. Basically, that's the crux of it for us, the Golden Flashes and the Bobcats need to win those two to keep Temple out of it. That gives Kent and Ohio each another win. We also need both of those teams to drop another game. Ohio doesn't have any gimmes left, Buffalo is their easiest game, and NIU and Temple will both be tough. Kent should have it easy against Akron, but their finish is tricky with Temple and Buffalo. It becomes readily obvious to me that the Buffalo Bulls could REALLY help us by playing spoiler to Kent and/or Ohio in the next three weeks. Particularly if Buffalo takes down Ohio, since Ohio has the tiebreaker over us, it would be nice if they folded and ended up with 3 MAC losses.

Bottom line, we need temple to lose and we need buffalo in particular to play spoiler on kent and ohio. That is the cleanest road for us.

What would be really wicked is if the following occurs:
BG wins out
Temple loses vs Kent and @ Ohio
Ohio loses @ Buffalo or vs NIU
Kent loses @ Akron or vs Buffalo

All four teams finish 6-2 in the MAC, and because BG didn't play Temple, a direct head-to-head comparison isn't possible. The MAC would have a doozy of a time sorting that out. It used to be that cross-division strength of schedule was the tiebreaker used in situations like these, but since Ohio and Kent only have 2 games against the West division and Temple and BG have 3, that comparison may not be possible either. Somebody in the MAC is going to have an anuersym if this plays out.*

* - of course, the exercise would probably be moot, because barring a huge upset, Central Michigan will likely win the MACC anyway.

Poor Kent.

Now that they lost I am pulling for them to win out. We need some magic to happen, and hopefully that was the start of it.

Miami nearly gave us some serious help, but in a way even though they didn't win, they did help us out. I believe they gave Kent, Akron, and Ohio some serious confidence when playing Kent this month. Temple looked extremely vulnerable. Miami took a lead with two minutes to go but could not stop a two minute offense to save their lives. If a 1-9 team could push the east leading team to the limit, what could Kent and Ohio, two teams still in contention, or a hot Akron team off an upset do to Temple? Us winning the east is still unlikely, but its possible and more likely than it was a week ago at this time.

All of this would be moot, though, if we lose any of our last three games.

There are WAAAAAAAY too many uses of "moot" in this thread.

Man, if MAC teams want to be taken seriously they better fill the seats when they get a game on ESPN even if it is a freakin' Tuesday night...I'm looking at you Buffalo!!! And, I think I'm rooting for them too, right?

professorjackson wrote:Man, if MAC teams want to be taken seriously they better fill the seats when they get a game on ESPN even if it is a freakin' Tuesday night...I'm looking at you Buffalo!!! And, I think I'm rooting for them too, right?

Their attendance wasn't that bad last week, they had almost 15k in the seats, if I were to guess. Maybe a great bunch of their fans called it a season after last week's heartbreaker against BG that knocked them out of bowl contention.

Big change of momentum early in the 4th, Buffalo got to the Ohio 12, a couple of penalties and a turnover has turned things back Ohio's way.

Edit: Lucky play on 3rd down, catch off a deflection. Bobcats driving.

INT Bobcats! Off a deflection no less, Buffalo gets it and returns it to the Ohio 40. First down Bulls with just under 11 minutes left.

7:59 left to go, 2nd & 8 Buffalo at the Ohio 11. Ohio still leads 24-21.

Edit: Buffalo gets a FG, tied up at 24 apiece with 7:04 to go.

BIG 4th down coming up for Ohio, 4th and 1 at the Buffalo 37, 2:45 left. This play could very well decide things.

Edit: Ohio picks it up on the option, 1st down.

UB's defense is staying strong, Ohio facing a 3rd and 11 from the Buffalo 30. If they get no yards, it's going to be a long FG attempt.

Ohio 47-yard FG is good, 27-24 with 1:25 left. Buffalo has 2 timeouts remaining.

Buffalo converts a 4th down, then a long pass down to the Ohio 33 with :36 left, they still have both of their remaining timeouts.

Cmon Buffalo!!

FUDGE, Buffalo INT, ball when right off the WR's hands into the defender's. Ohio wins.

Man, I really wish Freddie Barnes had 108 catches right about now.

I think Temple pretty much has to lose to Akron and Kent now for us to stay alive (not to mention, of course, BG winning out). Although I think if three or four teams are tied at the end of the year, the head-to-head vs. OU may not matter.

I just don't see Temple losing more than 1 conf game...we'll see. Hopefully they do but we still need Ohio to lose two more but they only have NIU and Temple left...ugh.

JUST BEAT MIAMI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Falconfreak90 wrote:I just don't see Temple losing more than 1 conf game...we'll see. Hopefully they do but we still need Ohio to lose two more but they only have NIU and Temple left...ugh.

JUST BEAT MIAMI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, there's only one way that can happen now Freak, and that's if Ohio drops both of their remaining games against Temple and Northern Illinois, and Temple loses to Kent and Akron. Honestly, I can easily see three of those four happening. Ohio in particular has a toad road ahead, though lucky (unlucky?) for them they get both games at home. The fourth, Akron over Temple, is going to take a lot of luck, but again, Akron plays that game at home too.

If those results were to play out and BG wins out, you'd be in a tie with Temple, and possibly Kent State too in a 3-way. My guess is that you would have to break that tie by virtue of strength of schedule against the West Division because of BG and Temple not playing each other. Temple would be immediately eliminated as they played BOTH Ball State and Eastern Michigan. Kent also played EMU, along with WMU, we had Ball State, Central Michigan, and still have Toledo in the final week. The only way in which we would lose that tiebreaker is if Toledo implodes down the stretch, and Ball State doesn't pick up any victories.