Ay-Ziggy-Zoomba.com

BGSU 8-3 (6-1) @ Buffalo 8-3 (6-1)
Ralph Wilson Stadium (73,967)
BGSU -1.5 (Sportsbook)
1:30 PM - ESPNU
28° - AM Snow Showers

Tale of the tape:
Individual Leaders

Passing
Matt Johnson --- 185/284 ; 2572 ; 65.1% ; 17 TD ; 6 INT ; 164 rushing yards on 86 carries
Joe Licata ------ 199/327 ; 2407 ; 60.9% ; 21 TD ; 6 INT ; -19 rushing yards on 24 carries

Rushing
Brandon Oliver -- 1375 yards ; 264 carries ; 5.2 average ; 14 TD
Travis Greene -- 1293 yards ; 205 carries ; 6.3 average ; 9 TD

Receiving
Alex Neutz --- 881 yards ; 52 receptions ; 16.9 average ; 11 TD
Shaun Joplin - 658 yards ; 41 receptions ; 16 average ; 2 TD

X Factor
Ronnie Moore - BGSU
Receiving - 390 receiving yards ; 22 receptions ; long of 74 ; 6 TD.
Rushing - 127 yards ; 13 attempts ; 9.8 yard avg

Khalil Mack - Buffalo
82 tackles ; 16.5 tackles for loss ; 12 sacks ; 3 INT ; 5 forced fumbles ; 2 defensive TD

Defense:
BGSU -
22 sacks ; 5 INT ; 10 forced fumbles
Total Yards - 302.1 (8th) ; Rushing - 145.7 (35th) ; Passing - 156.4 (1st)
Points Allowed - 14.4 (6th)

Buffalo -
35 sacks ; 14 INT ; 13 forced fumbles
Total Yards - 366 (35th) ; Rushing - 150 (47th) ; Passing - 215.4 (39th)
Points Allowed - 22.2 (33rd)

Offense:
BGSU -
Total Yards 461.7 (29th) ; Rushing - 205.09 (30th) ; Passing - 256.64 (37th);
PPG 35.36 (30th)

Buffalo -
Total Yards 416.91 (64th) ; Rushing - 186.2 (48th) ; Passing - 230.7 (69th)
PPG 33 (48th)

Falcon137 wrote:
BGSU 8-3 (6-1) @ Buffalo 8-3 (6-1)
Ralph Wilson Stadium (73,967)
BGSU -1.5 (Sportsbook)
1:30 PM - ESPNU
28° - AM Snow Showers

Tale of the tape:
Individual Leaders

Passing
Matt Johnson --- 185/284 ; 2572 ; 65.1% ; 17 TD ; 6 INT ; 164 rushing yards on 86 carries
Joe Licata ------ 199/327 ; 2407 ; 60.9% ; 21 TD ; 6 INT ; -19 rushing yards on 24 carries

Rushing
Brandon Oliver -- 1375 yards ; 264 carries ; 5.2 average ; 14 TD
Travis Greene -- 1293 yards ; 205 carries ; 6.3 average ; 9 TD

Receiving
Alex Neutz --- 881 yards ; 52 receptions ; 16.9 average ; 11 TD
Shaun Joplin - 658 yards ; 41 receptions ; 16 average ; 2 TD

X Factor
Ronnie Moore - BGSU
Receiving - 390 receiving yards ; 22 receptions ; long of 74 ; 6 TD.
Rushing - 127 yards ; 13 attempts ; 9.8 yard avg

Khalil Mack - Buffalo
82 tackles ; 16.5 tackles for loss ; 12 sacks ; 3 INT ; 5 forced fumbles ; 2 defensive TD

Defense:
BGSU -
22 sacks ; 5 INT ; 10 forced fumbles
Total Yards - 302.1 (8th) ; Rushing - 145.7 (35th) ; Passing - 156.4 (1st)
Points Allowed - 14.4 (6th)

Buffalo -
35 sacks ; 14 INT ; 13 forced fumbles
Total Yards - 366 (35th) ; Rushing - 150 (47th) ; Passing - 215.4 (39th)
Points Allowed - 22.2 (33rd)

Offense:
BGSU -
Total Yards 461.7 (29th) ; Rushing - 205.09 (30th) ; Passing - 256.64 (37th);
PPG 35.36 (30th)

Buffalo -
Total Yards 416.91 (64th) ; Rushing - 186.2 (48th) ; Passing - 230.7 (69th)
PPG 33 (48th)

As the ole saying goes, on paper...........I like our chances. Based on numbers seen above, I think our passing game should open up our running game. Would also like to see the "hurry-up" - on series one even. Seems it has worked every time we have used it. Contain both Oliver & Mack and we have a good chance to win this game!

I like our chances in this game, but I feel it's going to be a close game and one likely decided by one score - which is a major worry for me as we're 4-14 in games decided by one score including a pair of losses this year (1 points to MSU and 3 points to UT). I could very easily see this game coming down to either needing a late score or stop to win it.

Thanks for the analysis 137. Couple of things that stick out to me...

Greene has 9 TDs to Oliver's 14 but Houston's 11 have us way in the plus column for rushing TDs. With the possibility of 3 games to play, Houston could surpass P.J. in 04 (15) and Josh in 03 (13). Did Harris really have 20 rushing TDs in 2002?

An area of concern is that Buffalo's D is +12 in the turnover column. We need to protect the football. (I think we've done a decent job all season.)

Buffalo is a slower starting team, having been outscored by nearly 20 points so far in the the first quarter. Would love to be up by 10 heading into the 2nd qtr.

AZZZZ wrote:Did Harris really have 20 rushing TDs in 2002?

Yep. Josh was Lynch and LeFevour before they were. Also, Josh (and Gregg Brandon's offense) was the wildcat before it was as well.

Sadly, since he never won a title he never really got his due.

AZZZZ wrote:Thanks for the analysis 137. Couple of things that stick out to me...

Greene has 9 TDs to Oliver's 14 but Houston's 11 have us way in the plus column for rushing TDs. With the possibility of 3 games to play, Houston could surpass P.J. in 04 (15) and Josh in 03 (13). Did Harris really have 20 rushing TDs in 2002?

An area of concern is that Buffalo's D is +12 in the turnover column. We need to protect the football. (I think we've done a decent job all season.)

Buffalo is a slower starting team, having been outscored by nearly 20 points so far in the the first quarter. Would love to be up by 10 heading into the 2nd qtr.

Here are the actual point differentials for each team by half.

1st half -
BGSU : 204 - 109. BG is outscoring opponents in the 2nd quarter 130-49.
Buffalo : 159 - 149. Subtract the Baylor game it's 146-93.

2nd half -
BGSU : 185 - 49. BG is outscoring opponents 114 - 14 in the 3rd quarter! They haven't allowed a point in the 3rd, to any MAC school. Indiana scored 7 and Murray State 7.

Buffalo : 188 - 82.

Don't turn the ball over and we win. Simple as that.

The key is to stop Oliver, take away Neutz as a receiving option and not turn the ball over. I'm sure coach Elko is going to have a good game plan going into the game to do this. BooBoo is going to be very important I think is both the run and pass schemes.

Having Jude, Ward, Boo Boo and Pettus all good to go is huge. All of our DT's are healthy...Mike Minns has come on and moved up the depth chart...Paul Swan is a rock at MLB and our safeties are the strength of our defense. Going into a game where the elements could put a premium on the run game, having the middle of your defense operating at such a high level could be a deciding factor. Wish we had Ford at rover...but Sutton has been playing really well there and Senn is capable of handling that spot too.

Not having Coppet hurts...but I'm confident that Greene, Givens and Houston will give us all the juice we need there.

A win Friday makes us the first school in MAC history to win both divisions...suck on that, Huskies...

For those worried about the holiday week and preparations for Buffalo, it sounds like the staff did some homework before the EMU game...

http://www.toledoblade.com/BGSU/2013/11 ... lcons.html

I am anxious to see how we do offensively as we'll be facing a 3-4 defense against UB. I don't think we've faced a team that uses a base 3-4 this year.

To (I believe) paraphrase Doyt Perry... "We could win by a lot, they could win by a lot, or it could be a really good game."

I believe that Mack is the key to this game. Control him and you score points and win.

If he does his thing, BG will turn the ball over and lose. He is a truly dominant player, and must be accounted for. Our OL has huge challenge on its hands, along with our running backs, if they're called on to protect during a blitz.

As well as BG has played these past several games, I'm still in Missouri mode where the MAC East title is concerned. I'll believe this team under this coaching staff wins it when I see them do it on the field.

Too much history of close losses in games with something on the line.

I am really, really hoping to see them break that trend on Friday.

BGWriter wrote:
As well as BG has played these past several games, I'm still in Missouri mode where the MAC East title is concerned. I'll believe this team under this coaching staff wins it when I see them do it on the field.

Too much history of close losses in games with something on the line.

I am really, really hoping to see them break that trend on Friday.

This is my feeling as well....I really feel like we should beat them quite easily, but once again, I am not sure we have beaten anyone that is even decent at this point. Every time OU takes the field that win looks less and less impressive. Miami and Eastern may be the two worst teams in the FBS. I don't feel like Buffalo is anything more than slightly above average, but we are only favored by 1.5 and our staff's track record against decent teams is not good.

My gut still says we win by 12-14 points, but I can see us coming out flat and being caught up in a dog fight. It will be a fun game regardless.