Projecting the Impossible NFL Draft

OptionQB · Post by **OptionQB** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:04 am

1 San Francisco 49ers 2-13 select USC QB Matt Lineart . . . I think the problems are much deeper than Ken Dorsey or Tim Rattay but the Niners desperately need a star . . . WR Mike Williams makes the most sense, but this is the penny-pinching 49ers . . .

2 Cleveland Browns 3-12 select ??? . . . The only pick that makes sense for the Browns this high is Antrell Rolle, but do you take a corner #2? Again, Williams makes sense only b/c of his staggering size and big play ability, but the Browns are one team in position to move down and select an OL.

3 Tennessee Titans 4-11 select USC WR Mike Williams. If McNair does come back, Williams will be scary with Drew Bennett on the other side and Chris Brown as the running back. The Titans would become an instant contender again and are a cheap 3rd down receiver away from putting up Colts like numbers with McNair or Volek.

4 Miami Dolphins 4-11 select RB Carnell Williams. Saban stays with the SEC and drives a Cadillac in setting up his franchise. I doubt the Dolphins go back to the Austin, TX well again (Benson) and Williams' running mat Ronnie Brown is bigger, but few can argue (to me at least) that the Cadillac is not the best available.

5 Washington Redskins 5-10 select Wisconsin DE Erasmus James.

6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-10 select Auburn RB Ronnie Brown. Gruden's offense is built off of the run and he doesn't have a strong RB right now.

7 Arizona Cardinals 5-10 select Texas RB Cedric Benson. Too much talent to pass up and Dennis Green is an offensive guy. With 3 young big receivers, Josh McCown at QB and Benson learning from the master Emmitt Smith . . . the Cardinals could actually pursue the division with a winning record.

8 Oakland Raiders 5-10 select Michigan WR Braylon Edwards. Al likes his big WR and goes and gets the next best one besides Mike Williams.

9* San Diego Chargers 11-4 (from Eli trade) . . . they too, would have loved Braylon Edwards here, but Texas LB Derrick Johnson is also a steal and too good to pass up here for this gift of a pick.

10 Chicago Bears 5-10 . . . Another team with more than one hole to fill, but also just nailed by injuries . . . Rex Grossman and Brian Urlacher will be back next year and provide stability. I would look for them to go OLB, CB or WR. Unfortunatley . . . everything except receiver would be a stretch and is there a third game breaker among the bunch that is left? Cal RB JJ Arrington is possible if the can deal with Thomas Jones' contract.

hammb · Post by **hammb** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 8:59 am

Option,

Are you assuming that Aaron Rodgers is staying at Cal? I'm thinking that he will likely leave for the draft, and will duke it out with Leinart as the top pick in the draft. If they do both declare I think you'll see the Browns trade down as teams will want one of those 2 QBs.

Another name to look at for the Browns is D'Brickashaw Ferguson, a LT from Virginia. I haven't seen him play, and he's a true Jr who has not yet declared, but he has skyrocketed up draft prognostications. He's a superior athlete who has everything it takes to be a franchise LT. People mention Walter Jones when they're talking about him. However, I don't think he's quite worth the #2 spot yet. A trade down for him would make sense.

The same goes for Rolle. I'd love to get a playmaker on defense, but #2 seems a little high for a CB/S who isn't thought of as a true shutdown corner. I love what I've seen of Rolle, but he's not worthy of the #2 spot.

OptionQB · Post by **OptionQB** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 10:42 am

I completely forgot about Rodgers and was just going off of the upper-classmen Big Board that was on ESPN's free site. Rodgers is a good call as well as some of the other Virginia defenders.

Ferguson is probably the best OL available if he declares, but I'm not sure he's top 10.

And Rolle was just a guess, but like I said and you as well . . . he's a strectch at #2.

With Jeff Tedford already being mentioned at LSU, you could see guys like Rodgers come out . . .

TG1996 · Post by **TG1996** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:29 am

OptionQB wrote:And Rolle was just a guess, but like I said and you as well . . . he's a strectch at #2.

Or maybe you just forgot that the Browns are no longer under the "player must have Miami (FL) ties to be drafted by the Browns" guidelines...

Warthog · Post by **Warthog** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 7:57 pm

For my two cents, I would like to see the Browns get a top skill player when drafting # 2. That is, I think a WR would be approrpiate. I think there isn't a Robert Gallery type tackle this year so they could use the 34th pick of the draft to get a lineman better than anybody they currently have. Picking a stud WR seems like it would work great with having Winslow back at TE next year. Then that opens things up for Suggs. For some reason I am already optimistic about next season.

BGSU33 · Post by **BGSU33** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 8:17 pm

Being that I work at Virginia and have seen the Cavaliers play up close and personal for seven years, I thought I'd add some imput from above about the UVa players. D'Brickashaw Ferguson is going to be a good player in the NFL, but he's only the "third" best guy on Virginia's offensive front line right now. Get Mel Kiper out of your heads. RG Elton Brown is a monster and one, if not the, best OL in the country. I'd take Brown over Ferguson in a heartbeat, though one is a G and the other is a T. TE Heath Miller is also one if not the best at his position. I know Mel Kiper has been touting Ferguson big time, but here in Charlottesville, we know Brown is the man! He's simply put, an OL Monster!

On Virginia's defense, they probably have the best group of LBs in the nation. Let me just tell you now, Ahmad Brooks is a freak! He's a mold of Brian Urlacher. He has the prototype build for a LB, is athletic as all hell, he can run, he can hit. He prepped for one year out of HS and played two years at UVa, so he can come out if he choses to. If he does, he'll help any team that takes him. I also saw him play at CD Hylton HS in Woodbridge, Virginia where he was named the #1 LB prospect in the country. Virginia's Darryl Blackstock is another guy who could come out and go high. He's can play both OLB and DE, sort of a LT type. Word has it he'll be back at UVa next year though. Kai Parham, rated the #4 LB coming out of HS, also has a nice future when he leaves Charlottesville.

Virginia lost to Fresno State today and fell to Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech this year. UVa may not be the best team, but they have more projected 1st round picks this year if the guys come out than probably any team in the country. But I'd take Brown on offense and Brooks on defense in a second no matter what team I was picking for.

Jacobs4Heisman · Post by **Jacobs4Heisman** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 8:36 pm

I think the Browns will select.....WHO CARES. Whoever it is will either flop or get hurt and the browns will get pasted twice by the steelers and everybody will call for *insert head coach here*'s head. Until the browns change whatever it is they seem to be doing, they will be terrible. Whether they draft antrell rolle or t.j. carswell is irrelevant. By the way, McCown might be worse than Ken Dorsey AND Craig Krenzel, which is amazing.

kdog27 · Post by **kdog27** » Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:29 pm

Jacobs4Heisman wrote:I think the Browns will select.....WHO CARES. Whoever it is will either flop or get hurt and the browns will get pasted twice by the steelers and everybody will call for *insert head coach here*'s head. Until the browns change whatever it is they seem to be doing, they will be terrible. Whether they draft antrell rolle or t.j. carswell is irrelevant. By the way, McCown might be worse than Ken Dorsey AND Craig Krenzel, which is amazing.

yup

saves · Post by **saves** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 3:16 am

I don't think theres any way that many running backs get picked in the top 10. This is an very deep year for running backs not only in the draft, but through free agency. Also with many teams having starting runners that were drafted in rounds other than the 1st, more teams would rather take another position and gambel on a later round choice. I see Benson as being the top back on the board as of now, possibly to the Dolphins or Raiders.

Falcon52 · Post by **Falcon52** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 8:49 am

If the Browns don't select an O-Line, I am turning in my season tickets. I can't take it anymore. I would prefer if someone with some balls would just do the right thing and let some other sucker team give us several picks for the #2 spot. The Lions punked us last year for Winslow, now let's be smart and punk some other team for extra picks.

Keeping this a BG thread, we need O-linemen to protect Harris next year.

hammb · Post by **hammb** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:10 am

Jacobs4Heisman wrote:I think the Browns will select.....WHO CARES. Whoever it is will either flop or get hurt and the browns will get pasted twice by the steelers and everybody will call for *insert head coach here*'s head. Until the browns change whatever it is they seem to be doing, they will be terrible. Whether they draft antrell rolle or t.j. carswell is irrelevant. By the way, McCown might be worse than Ken Dorsey AND Craig Krenzel, which is amazing.

Well, I'm pretty sure that they will be changing whatever it is they're doing, considering they fired Butch Davis. Butch was the GM, President of Football, Head Coach, Hot Dog Vendor, and he set the beer prices. For some reason they gave him every power in the world. Now that he is gone you can rest assured that they will be changing what they're doing. They have determined to hire an actual GM, and then allow him to hire an actual football coach. There will not be a dual role debacle again.

BGSU33, I hear ya 100%. Elton Brown is a stud, no doubt about it. However, you must realize that in the NFL draft an average LT is considered a more valuable commodity than a Pro-Bowl Guard. Looking at the Browns OL it is the guards that are really terrible, but both Verba & Tucker are capable of playing guard at a high level. The thought of taking a tackle then moving one of them into guard is that you upgrade 2 positions. I'm not 100% sold on D'Brickashaw yet, and I read a couple articles yesterday where he ensured he was definitely coming back to UVA, so it could be irrelevant. I do know one guy that posts on the Browns board used to be the OL coach at Akron. He's a good guy, and has pretty good opinions and knows what he's talking about. His career goal is to take over for Mel Kiper

He has always said you can spot a franchise stud LT within 5 plays of watching them. According to him D'Brickashaw passed that test. Ferguson is a superb athlete who has great technique. The biggest question is whether he will continue to put weight on, because right now he's VERY light for a top 10 pick tackle. If Ferguson declares and weighs 300 at the combine I can almost guarantee he goes before Brown. I'm really kinda hoping that Brown is available for us in the 2nd round

I don't know anything about Miller, but the Browns aren't looking for a TE. Brooks will be a pretty high pick too, that I'm sure of. He's very well thought of in draft circles.

Warthog, I'm not completely in disagreement with you. The hand's down best player in this draft is Mike Williams. There is no close #2, NONE. Williams would've been a top 7 pick in last year's awesomely top heavy draft. He is the clear cut best player in this draft of no stars. Unfortunately the guy hasn't played football in a year; that NEVER goes over well. I am a firm believer that the Browns have pretty good skill players but their OL keeps them down. That said I'm also a firm believer in taking the best player available. Kellen Winslow is the only guy on either side of the ball (and this is unconfirmed right now) that is a bona fide playmaker. Northcutt, Davis, & Bryant are all decent, and an improved OL could make them look better, but none of them are playmakers that make their QBs look better than they really are. Williams could be that guy. I'd have no problem taking him #2 at all. I'm also in agreement with you. Even if D'Brickashaw does enter the draft he's considered a tier below Gallery. This entire draft is considered a tier below last year's. If you compare this to last year's draft Eli, Rivers, Gallery, Taylor, Fitzgerald, and Winslow would all be the surfire #1 prospect in this group. Williams is the one guy here who actually stacks up to last year's taletn level. The Browns could definitely use a skill guy, and I'd love to see Mike Williams in Cleveland.

Warthog · Post by **Warthog** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:37 am

hammb,
Yes, Mike Williams hasn't played for a year. But til next season rolls around, you can say the same thing for Sean Jones (? safety from UGA the Browns drafted in the second round) and basically for Winslow as well. Looking at it from the bright side, those guys should be fresh and hungry! 8) So that is why I would lean toward him. Of course I have no idea who San Fran will take with the first pick, although I think they need a QB so if Rogers comes out, I think they take him.

OptionQB · Post by **OptionQB** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:42 am

They mentioned on ESPN last night on "Outside the Lines" that they wouldn't be surprised to see the 49ers trade out of the top spot. Owner John York has charged players for using stamps and drinking too much gatorade and while trading down would be the right thing to do to fill multiple holes, it would be seen as a costs-savings measure not to pay one guy that type of money. San Diego has multiple #1s and I believe #3 and 4s. Mike Williams would look like a million bucks in San Diego's already potent offense.

BGSU33 · Post by **BGSU33** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:49 am

Hammb, I more than realize what it takes to be a G or T in the NFL. The point I am making is about guys like Mel Kiper or whoever wants to wear the czar label. They are like weatherman, sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. Working in an SID office, especially in the ACC, I know exactly how Kiper gets most of his information. My roommate is the football contact here at Virginia and spends a good deal of time on the phone with him throughout the year, especially prior to the draft. Kiper calls every D-I school (and some I-AA and smaller schools) in the country to put together a "hot list" and does research on these guys. Sometimes he gets good information, sometimes he gets poor information. It's his job to do this, and he is aided by SIDs across the country, the same way Andy Katz is with basketball. Let me say Ferguson is a talent and will have a bright future in the game of football. Anyone that watches Ferguson play can see he is good, but like I said, he's not even close to being the best guy on his own line. But if you need a QB, you don't draft a RB. So yes, if you need a T, you go after a tackle. The bottom line is, every year there will be sleepers, busts, guys who live up to the hype and people that come out of nowhere. I think Ferguson will be a good player no matter where he lands. I know what the UVa coaching staff thinks of him and I've heard what numerous NFL scouts have said about him by sitting and talking with them in the pressbox on gameday. But right now, he's probably more of a guy with a lot of project-ability than a surefire pick. As a Bears fans, I am reminded of the differences of a top draft pick like Cade McNown (bust) and Brian Urlacher (star).

And now for the weather.....it'll be cold in Ohio.

hammb · Post by **hammb** » Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:57 am

BGSU33 wrote:Hammb, I more than realize what it takes to be a G or T in the NFL. The point I am making is about guys like Mel Kiper or whoever wants to wear the czar label. They are like weatherman, sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. Working in an SID office, especially in the ACC, I know exactly how Kiper gets most of his information. My roommate is the football contact here at Virginia and spends a good deal of time on the phone with him throughout the year, especially prior to the draft. Kiper calls every D-I school (and some I-AA and smaller schools) in the country to put together a "hot list" and does research on these guys. Sometimes he gets good information, sometimes he gets poor information. It's his job to do this, and he is aided by SIDs across the country, the same way Andy Katz is with basketball. Let me say Ferguson is a talent and will have a bright future in the game of football. Anyone that watches Ferguson play can see he is good, but like I said, he's not even close to being the best guy on his own line. But if you need a QB, you don't draft a RB. So yes, if you need a T, you go after a tackle. The bottom line is, every year there will be sleepers, busts, guys who live up to the hype and people that come out of nowhere. I think Ferguson will be a good player no matter where he lands. I know what the UVa coaching staff thinks of him and I've heard what numerous NFL scouts have said about him by sitting and talking with them in the pressbox on gameday. But right now, he's probably more of a guy with a lot of project-ability than a surefire pick. As a Bears fans, I am reminded of the differences of a top draft pick like Cade McNown (bust) and Brian Urlacher (star).

And now for the weather.....it'll be cold in Ohio.

33, I don't think we're arguing...lol.

I don't disagree with you. Ferguson is not the best player on his own OL. Just wasn't sure if you understood how the draft works, obviously you do

Teams don't draft on who was the better college player, they draft on who they think will become the better NFL player, and its about the most inexact science there is. I was looking over some articles yesterday, and people were outlining the top 10 draft picks by position in the last 10 years. From looking at that list I'd say its about 50/50 whether you're going to get a star player or a guy who will be out of football in 5 years. Its really quite amazing.

On Ferguson I'd bet you could go down the line of NFL teams and nearly every one of them would tell you that Brown was the better player. I also bet that if you asked them which they would draft nearly every one of them would take Ferguson over Brown. OG, Safety, and TE (although that is changing) are positions that aren't given much respect come draft day. It takes a VERY special player to crack the top 10 at those positions. Conventional wisdom is that if you draft a LT and he cannot handle it they can usually become good guards. Not saying that I agree with that, but that's the wisdom. Without a doubt I agree with you that if Ferguson were to get drafted this year it'd be based on his project-ability moreso than his surefire lock to be good. He's so young (as a true Jr.) and he has a lot of room for his body to grow. I could see him being a boom or bust. My point was just that almost any NFL team will take a project possible franchise LT over a surefire stud guard.

I assure you that I don't see Kiper as god, or even a guru. I think he does a fairly good job at what he does, but at the same time I am of the opinion that if he was one of the best at knowing draft personnel he'd have a job at an NFL team

As for the Browns, I'm really holding out hope that Elton drops to #34, he'd be an instant starter in the second round.

Option, I had heard that SF might trade down as well, because they have to. The first pick of the draft is a major salary cap hit, and I had heard that they have very little cap room going into next season, and might not have the ability to even sign a #1 pick. That would be craziness. At least SF keeps the Browns from being the worst run franchise in the NFL