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Kent State preview

Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:08 pm
by MarkL
Nobody's yet told me my previews suck and I should stop so I'll take that as a reason to keep doing these. Besides, the previews are fun to put together and give me some good insight into our opponents.

Our next opponent is Kent State. Kent had that magical 2012 season but it feels like an eternity ago now. Kent is currently 1-8 (0-5), though they've had some close conference games. Their five losses have been to Ohio (L 14-17), NIU (L 14-17), UMass (L 17-40), that team down south (L 3-10), and that team up north (L 20-30), so they have only had one bad conference loss.

Offense
- The offense has not exactly been successful this season, averaging under 15 points a game. With how our defense is playing of late against how Kent has been all season, you may be cackling with joy, but I'll say that Kent ... could ... present a bigger problem than we may think on offense. Still, this should be the weakest offense we've played since VMI. This offense is rather young, like WMU, but I don't see the potential for the future that I saw in WMU. There's no Jarvion Franklin on this team.
- Last year, freshman Colin Reardon started and did an OK job filling in for four year starter Spencer Keith. I remember him playing a good game against us in the first half of our game last year and then our defense took care of business in the second half. Reardon hasn't exactly set the world on fire this year, with a 55% completion rate for a little under 1900 yards and a 9 to 11 ratio.
- On Tuesday against that team up north, Colin Reardon led the team to a 23-0 deficit. Coach Haynes decided to change the pace up some and brought in freshman Nathan Strock, who rallied the team but they still lost 30-20. Strock went 9-18 for 67 and a TD and also rushed 5 times for 75, including a long of 65. Strock for the season has a 2/1 ratio but has completed less than half of his passes.
--- I really don't know who will get the start against us. If it is Strock, we need to be ready for our first running QB since the Ohio game. So either we will end up playing an experienced QB with 1.5 seasons under his belt who has been slumping recently or we play a really green guy who effectively moved the ball and nearly rallied his team to a victory from a deep deficit.
- In 2012, Kent had two excellent running backs in Durham, the big rumbler, and Archer, who was the fastest and most exciting player I've ever seen in the MAC. 2012 feels like an eternity ago at this point, especially on the rushing front.
--- Durham was supposed to be the rusher this year but he has not played yet due to injury. I don't know if he's expected to play at all this year so I'll work with the assumption he is out for the season.
- The leading rusher is Nick Holley, a sophomore with exactly 100 rushes for exactly 400 yards (that is the easiest yards per carry average to calculate I have ever seen this late in the season) and only 1 TD. The second leading rusher is senior Anthony Meray, with 46 rushes for 140 and only one TD.
--- The running game is a far cry from two years ago.
- The offense likes to spread out the receptions. There are 7 receivers with over 100 yards, 5 with over 200, and 6 with over 20 catches. Also there are 6 with at least 1 TD. I won't go over all the receivers so I'll highlight three.
--- The leading receiver is senior tight end 6-4 242 Casey Pierce with 42 receptions for 433 and 4 TDs. He's a big dude and is tough to tackle.
--- The leading WR is a guy whose name we all may remember from the past couple years, senior Chris Humphrey. He is not huge at 6-1, but he has 34 for 380 and 2 TDs.
--- Another receiver to watch out for this a smaller guy, sophomore James Brooks at 5-9 and 200. He only has 16 receptions and only 1 TD, but he averages over 17 a reception.
- The stats for their offense aren't really imposing. They have more than double the first downs via pass than via rush, so you'd think either their passing game is dominant or the running game is not getting the job done. Only the latter is true. The team's overall passing rating 104.69, which is pretty low, and also they only average 3.2 yards a rush.
- If you look at Kent's offensive performance all year long, there's nothing that should worry us too much beyond a big tight end. However, the offense was a completely different animal once Strock replaced Reardon at QB in their last game. Strock took over in the second drive of the third quarter after Reardon led to 0 points. Strock led to 3 TDs in 6 drives.
- I do not know who Haynes will start at QB, but if it is Strock then there's a relatively unknown sparkplug leading the offense we'll have to be ready to stop.

Defense
- As I indicated above, the offense isn't exactly terrifying. The defense is better than the offense but that's not saying too much. Kent allows nearly 30 points a game (which is less than we average for the year but 9 more than we've averaged since the UB game) and nearly 5 yards a rush.
--- It's also not a good sign for Kent that 4 of the top 5 tacklers are defensive backs.
- The leading tackler by far is sophomore safety Nate Holley with 63 solo tackles. The second leading is junior safety Jordan Italiano with 39.
--- A sign of a sound defense is when plays don't get past the linebackers with great frequency. It's a bad, bad sign when the top two tacklers are safeties, and also a bad sign when the leading tackler has more than double the solo tackles of the leading linebacker (Matt Dellinger with 29).
--- Now I say that with a caveat. Dellinger, the leader among the linebackers in solo tackles, does have 43 assisted tackles to go with the 29 solos, so he is in on a lot of plays but fewer than two safeties on the team. Still, it is not a good sign for the defense that so many plays get into the secondary.
--- As I indicated above, Kent allows nearly 5 yards a rush. I'm guessing our backs will have a good day.
- As a team Kent has only recorded 5 interceptions. But they have recovered 8 fumbles and forced 16, so we have to be mindful.
--- They also have only 35 TFL ... and I'm not kidding on this stat ... only 4 sacks.
- I have to say this is one of the weaker defenses we have played in a long, long while. If our offense comes to play, we could be in for some fun.

Special Teams
- I'll save you reading a bunch of stats and give the shorter version.
- Junior Anthony Melchiori handles all kicking duties. He's a good punter and an average kicker (10/16).
- The punt and kick return game is nothing to fear. Which is disappointing because under both of the previous two coaches, Kent had a great reputation for the return game.

Overall
- Kent's reputation on offense against how our D has played recently is greatly in our favor. The concern is if Strock gets the start at QB. He gave the offense a great spark and nearly led to a win after a 23 point deficit.
--- He's a relative unknown so it would be rather difficult to prep for him.
- Kent's defense allows a lot of plays to get into the secondary and also allows a lot of long runs. I do not know the condition of Travis Greene, but Coppet and Givens put on a show against a far superior defense on Tuesday. We may not have to put the ball in the air very often if those two guys are great for us.
- I just have to say, there is no fanbase in the conference, or maybe even in the country, who I feel worse for than Kent State. Kent has no history of winning with any consistency, but then the 2012 season came around. The 2012 season was pure magic. It was exciting for Kent fans and as a MAC fan, that season was a thrill to watch.
--- All of those key players in that season are gone now (Durham is injured), and Paul Haynes is in his second year as the coach and has 0 good wins. It is like the 2012 season was a dream and now Kent fans have been rudely awaken to reality.
- Barring a late season turnaround, I would not be surprised if Haynes is let go after only 2 years on the job. It is hard to follow up a guy like Hazell who was pure magic for Kent, but it would be difficult for an AD to explain two clunker seasons after a magical season under the previous coach.
- Kent has been close in most of the MAC games but has yet to win one. This ... could ... be a close game even if the stats indicate otherwise. However, our team is undefeated in one possession games so we should be fine if it is close.
- I expect a win. In fact, I'm hoping that our offense just runs up and down all over Kent and our improved and improving defense has its best effort of the season.
- And I also expect our backs to have great days. I do not know if Greene will be available, but if he is a gametime decision I hope he rests because I imagine Coppet and Givens should be able to get the job done.
--- This may be a game where Knapke need not be the focal point of the offense and can simple manage the game and throw a pass here and there to provide some balance.
--- I also have to say it would be fun to see Pohlman get some more good carries.

Be happy if ...
- Our backs break off big runs all day
- Our defense holds Kent to 3 or fewer yards per carry

Worry if ...
- Strock gets the start and lights a fire under the offense
- Kent's defense sells out to stop the run and puts Knapke under duress

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:51 pm
by BGSU33
Obviously this is a very important game for BG as it can win the East and claim a spot in the MAC Championship game with a win over Kent State. A loss would put the heat right back on us as we have Toledo on deck (we all know how that has gone in recent years) and Ball State. Obviously, Kent State is having a tough year. This is a game we should win, but we could say the same thing about the WKU and WMU games too. If you look closely at some of Kent State’s losses, they easily could have a better record. They lost by 3 to Ohio on a FG on the final play, they lost by 3 on the road at NIU, they lost by 7 at Miami and lost by 10 to Toledo the other night after rallying to make a game of it.

As much success as BG has had against Kent State, I was a little surprised to see that Kent State has won 3 of the last 4 games in the series in BG (including the last two), and has also beaten BG in 3 of the last 4 overall meetings. These guys ruined our MAC Championship hopes two years ago in the Doyt in a similar situation for the Falcons for a chance to head to Detroit (although our loss then sent them to Detroit, while this year they are out of the running). We looked awful in our last home game against WMU and I hope we come out focused and seal the deal right here and now and take care of Kent State on Wednesday night.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 3:48 pm
by mscarn
MarkL wrote: The second leading is junior safety Jordan Italiano with 39.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:28 pm
by bgsufalcon24
It's pretty freakin incredible that Kent won 3 straight over us within the past 5 years. They don't even look like a real team right now.

I guess that's how quickly fortunes can turn in college football.

One thing is obvious...the Darrell Hazell move after 2012 killed Kent State, and didn't really help Purdue either. That hiring effectively hurt two teams at the same time. After week 1 it appeared that Dave Clawson's move to Wake Forest might prove to be another example of that. The trials and tribulations of coaches like Clawson and Hazell are cautionary tales for current MAC coaches seeking a promotion...you're best off avoiding programs that only serve to get coaches fired.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:36 pm
by Flipper
I think the Wake job is a little better in that regard than the Purdue job...they seem to understand the challenges their coaches will face a bit more than they do at Purdue.

The only similarity between the Kent team that beat us for the MAC title in 2012 and this years team is the uniforms. I think we'll be celebrating a 2nd straight MAC East title this week.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:05 pm
by BGSU33
bgsufalcon24 wrote:It's pretty freakin incredible that Kent won 3 straight over us within the past 5 years.....I guess that's how quickly fortunes can turn in college football.
Not only that, Kent State was an overtime loss in the MAC Championship to NIU away from likely going to a BCS bowl (Orange Bowl) just two years ago! It just goes to show how important it is to make the most of your opportunities like this one we have trying to wrap up an East title, at home, versus a winless team in the league who knocked us out last time here. You never know what the future holds with injuries, coaching changes, inability to sustain success, etc.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Sun Nov 09, 2014 8:48 pm
by Falconfreak90
BG takes care of business Wed night...38-14. I feel our D just keeps getting better each week and still has a lot of potential. The Offense ran the ball down Akron's throat and I'd love to see that again. BiG games outta Coppett and Givens. What is the status of Greene?

We clinch a trip back to the Motor City this week and I requested 12/5/14 off a long time ago...

GO FALCONS

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:27 pm
by Schadenfreude
This is a big game. I really hope the Falcons take care of business. Let's lock up the division and a bowl game this week. Otherwise, this board will be insufferable until Thanksgiving.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:39 pm
by jpfalcon09
I expect a similar game to what Akron was. Kent isn't as bad as their record indicates, they've played almost everyone close and sometimes these teams with nothing to lose late in the year can become dangerous. I also noticed Strock is going to start for them, he came in against Toledo and had some success.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:26 pm
by mscarn
bgsufalcon24 wrote:The trials and tribulations of coaches like Clawson and Hazell are cautionary tales for current MAC coaches seeking a promotion...you're best off avoiding programs that only serve to get coaches fired.
Exactly. Everyone assumed it was a fait accompli that Clawson would leave after winning the title. Butch Jones, Turner Gill and Dave Doeren are all recent MAC championship coaches who stayed after winning a title and held out for better situations instead of jumping at the first offer. Listen to Clawson, though, and he really believes Wake Forest is a good job however delusional that may be. I think he saw the AD who hired him leave and colleagues like Mike London and Scott Shafer land ACC jobs and figured he had to make the move. The runner-up for Wake was supposedly Pete Lembo of Ball State whose luster may have dimmed after the season they're having this year, making the case for capitalizing when you can.

Re: Kent State preview

Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:50 pm
by BillyLP
mscarn wrote:
bgsufalcon24 wrote:The trials and tribulations of coaches like Clawson and Hazell are cautionary tales for current MAC coaches seeking a promotion...you're best off avoiding programs that only serve to get coaches fired.
Listen to Clawson, though, and he really believes Wake Forest is a good job however delusional that may be..
Being a Deac almost as much as a Falcon, I feel compelled to defend Clawson here. Wake Forest is a very good job. Very patient fan base with realistic expectations for their program. Clawson will either meet or exceed any goals the fans have there and it wouldn't take much for him to leave there a legend. They're currently 2-7 and if you read their message boards they couldn't be happier with the job being done. It was a jump that made perfect sense for him, although I selfishly was begging my friends in Wake Athletics to pass on him.

As far as the Kent game tonight, I don't see this being a close one. I think we get on the board early and often by running the ball and win 49-21. I'm always leery of confidence going into these games, but I just feel like the MAC Championship dangling in front of these guys is more than enough motivation to kick some ass.