That Team Up North preview
Posted: Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:35 pm
Rivalry week. It is time to end the slide against that team up north (TTUN) and walk away with a big win. TTUN is currently 6-4 (5-1) and lost their last conference game, this past Tuesday at NIU. TTUN has had some close calls in conference play (20 - 19 in OT over WMU, 42 - 35 over UMass) so it is fitting that their lone conference loss was a close one (24 - 27).
Offense
- The offense is averaging 32.5 ppg in conference play, which is a bit better than our 30.8 ppg. The offense is definitely heavy on the run as they have more rushing attempts than passing attemps (423 to 330), a hair more rushing yards than passing yards (2471 to 2464), and more rushing TDs than passing TDs (22 to 19).
- Part of the reliance on the run has been the QB situation. QB health has been a bit of a midadventure. There have been 4 QBs getting significant play time, and we have to be ready for three of them.
---- The original starting QB for TTUN was Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama who was doing fine until he got injured against Missouri and was lost for the season, so no need to prepare for Ely. He may be scary good next year.
---- Logan Woodside, a sophomore, replaced Ely and has done a rather good job, hitting 61% of his passes for 1711 and a 14 / 5 ratio. He also is undefeated in conference play as a starter. He hurt an ankle against Kent and left the game, then came back in briefly against NIU to give a spark to the offense but got hurt again.
---- Woodside was replaced by freshman Michael Julian. Julian did not do too well in his time against Kent or against NIU, completing only a third of his passes (6 / 17) for 72. The offense did not move well against NIU with Julian in charge and relied on the run. He hurt his head against NIU and did not return.
---- Senior Dwight Macon came off the bench to replace Julian and nearly led TTUN to a win over NIU. Julian was recruited originally to be a QB but got moved to WR for his athleticism. He went 7 / 10 against NIU for 119 and a long TD. He also rushed for 97 and 2 TDs on 18 attempts. He is an athletic guy. I do think some of his success against NIU can be written off to NIU not prepping to face a mobile guy, but regardless he nearly led TTUN to a win. He was very effective on the zone read.
---- You can bet Campbell is going to be keep QB health information close to his chest. There are three QBs with three different styles we have to be prepped to face. Woodside is the best passer, Julian is a big bodied and mobile guy with a lot of upside but no experience, and Macon is as athletic as they get.
---- The Blade reports that Macon will likely get the start. There is no telling how accurate that is, so we must be ready for all three. But Macon presents a unique threat with his legs. This would be his first collegiate start.
- TTUN leans heavily on the run game in order to open the pass game. They spread you out and run the ball well.
---- Sophomore Kareem Hunt is the primary runner. He is nearly to 1000 yards on 121 attempts (8.14 average!!) and 8 TDs. He is one of the conference's best backs and has great vision to find a hole. He was supposedly playing against NIU with an injury sustained in the Kent game, but his stats against NIU (18 for 119) looked plenty healthy.
---- Freshman Terry Swanson has gotten his share of carries too, at 106 for 702 and 6 TDs. He averages a nice 6.69 a carry. He is another good one and TTUN has a deep set of backs.
---- Sophomore Damion Jones-Moore has also seen a good amount of carries, with 59 for 308 and 3 TDs.
- Some teams spread the ball out to lots of receivers. TTUN only has two receivers with over 20 receptions, but still there are some receivers of note.
---- Sophomore Corey Jones is the receptions and yards leader with 60 for 744 and 4 TDs. He is a smaller dude at 5-8 165 but he's a great athlete.
---- We all unfortunately remember junior Alonzo Russell from last year. He's a big bodied guy at 6-4 205. He has 43 receptions for 609 (average 14.16) and a team high 7 TDs. He'll present a serious matchup challenge for our corners.
---- They also have another big bodied guy in senior Justin Olack (6-4 220). He only has 17 receptions but he averages a team high 15.06 per grab and has 3 TDs.
---- It looks to me like this is an explosive receiving corps. The offense spreads you out, relies upon the run, and uses that run game to open up the pass game. It is difficult to cover one 6'4 receiver. Asking a team to also cover two 6'4 receivers, while also trying to stuff a great run game, is a high, high order.
- Also of major note is the offensive line. Phil Steele rated the offensive line as a legit top 10 or so nationwide line. The line has a ton of experience ... and do they ever know how to open up the run. They've also only given up 11 sacks, 6 of which were against Mizzou and Cincinnati. This offensive line is truly the anchor of the offense.
- This offense is probably the most complete offense we have seen in conference play. They have the best offensive line we've seen besides our Big Ten opponents, they have a deep set of backs, and some big and explosive receivers.
- The big question is quarterback. TTUN has had serious injury problems there. As far as I know, none of the three that played against NIU (Woodside, Julian, and Macon) are ruled out of the game. Macon is the most healthy and would be my guess for the start, and the Blade seems to agree. We have to prep for all three ... while also dealing with that offensive line and the offensive playmakers.
Defense
- Defensively TTUN has allowed in conference play an average of 25.3 ppg, which is a hair more than our 24.3 ppg. This is a pretty good defense that is especially good against the run but not so solid against the pass.
- The leading tackler is senior linebacker Junior Sylvestre, with 81 total tackles (46 solo). He seems to be in on every play. I thought I'd at some point quit hearing his name against NIU but never did.
---- The second leading tackler is actually a defensive end. Senior Ray Bush has 58 tackles (33 solo) so he also is in on a ton of plays. He played LB last year and moved to DE.
---- There are three other guys with 50+ tackles: junior corner Chris Dukes (57, 42 solo), junior linebacker Trent Voss (57, 29 solo, 5 TFL, 4 sacks), and sophomore safety DeJuan Rogers (54, 31 solo).
- I won't highlight other individual efforts. This is a case where I think it's better to highlight not the individual but the team stats ... so here we go.
---- Defensively against the run, they are pretty good, allowing 3.81 per carry.
---- Against the pass, not quite as good, allowing over 300 per game and already 29 TDs.
---- The team has totaled 20 sacks in 10 games (we've come up with 17, so they have a slight edge on us though they did not play Wisconsin).
---- The team has totaled 8 interceptions (we've come up with 11, so we've got a definite edge).
---- The team has only forced 7 fumbles, recovered 2 (we're among the best in the country, forcing 22 coming up with 13).
- It is hard to get a solid read on the D. They are good against the run, a bit of a sieve against the pass, and are not great at coming up with turnovers.
---- When the third leading tackler is a corner, you've got a good indication that teams like to air it out against these guys.
- I think our key against their D is to establish the run and establish it fast. We'll be able to pass on them, but if we can also run on them and force them to bring pressure to stop the run, then we'll be able to move all we want. Or at least that is my prognosis.
Special Teams
- Jeremiah Detmer was preseason first team all-conference K. He has made 16 / 19, so our game will be a battle of the conference's best two kickers.
- The P, Nick Ellis, averages 36 a boot ... which is OK but not great.
- TTUN traditionally is known for punt and kick returns. Bernard Reedy and Eric Page in the past few years made punt and kick returns look rather easy.
---- This year is not quite the same. The team has a combined 0 punt and kick return TDs, and the only punt returner, Corey Jones (the small quick athletic receiver I mentioned earlier), averages less than 6 a return. (For comparison sake, Burbrink averages a hair above 12.)
Overall
- TTUN just lost their first conference game, and it was a close game where two QBs came out with injury and a WR/QB nearly led to victory. The team has won some close games. They just know how to win.
- Statistically the team looks solid but does not look that dominant. They run the ball very well, they have a great offensive line, their defense does a good job at stopping the run, they don't turn the ball over very often, they don't force many turnovers. But they win tight ones.
- I have to say I was stunned how good the offense looked with a fourth string QB on Tuesday. We need to be ready for his athleticism because we have not seen many mobile QBs this season.
---- They like to run the zone read a lot and Macon adds another dimension. We'd better be ready.
- TTUN has won tight games in conference play. All of their conference games have been one or two possession games. The biggest win was a 14 point win over CMU. They also lucked out against WMU when WMU had an XP hit the upright in OT. WMU had that game but TTUN forced OT as time expired.
- It looks to me like this is a disciplined team. And the fact that they run the ball so much allows them to control the clock. WMU dominated TTUN in time of possession ... and in every other conference game TTUN has won and sometimes dominated time of possession.
- As for some intangibles, there is motivation from both teams. Our guys want to finally win this rivalry game, especially our seniors. TTUN has almost no chance of going to the conference title game if they lose, and that is after starting 5-0 in conference play.
- If our defense continues their high level of play, we'll be able to keep the offense in check. If we can prevent them from getting 5 or 6 yards rushing on first down, we can get them off the field.
- Our offense needs our backs to be healthy. Greene's status is anybody's guess (my guess is he plays), and Coppet's status is also anybody's guess (my guess is he also plays but is limited).
- My instinct is the game comes down to who runs the ball better. Both passing offenses have explosive potential and both are relying upon the run. We just held Kent to 22 yards, who rushed for 171 against TTUN. Advantage: us.
- This will be a close game, and this is the year where the slide ends.
Be happy if:
- We run well
- Knapke makes plays and does not turn it over
- Our defense sees 2nd and long, 3rd and long instead of 2nd and 4, 3rd and 1
Worry if:
- Knapke has to be the whole offense
- Our defense has problems stopping the run
- TTUN's QBs are effective
Offense
- The offense is averaging 32.5 ppg in conference play, which is a bit better than our 30.8 ppg. The offense is definitely heavy on the run as they have more rushing attempts than passing attemps (423 to 330), a hair more rushing yards than passing yards (2471 to 2464), and more rushing TDs than passing TDs (22 to 19).
- Part of the reliance on the run has been the QB situation. QB health has been a bit of a midadventure. There have been 4 QBs getting significant play time, and we have to be ready for three of them.
---- The original starting QB for TTUN was Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama who was doing fine until he got injured against Missouri and was lost for the season, so no need to prepare for Ely. He may be scary good next year.
---- Logan Woodside, a sophomore, replaced Ely and has done a rather good job, hitting 61% of his passes for 1711 and a 14 / 5 ratio. He also is undefeated in conference play as a starter. He hurt an ankle against Kent and left the game, then came back in briefly against NIU to give a spark to the offense but got hurt again.
---- Woodside was replaced by freshman Michael Julian. Julian did not do too well in his time against Kent or against NIU, completing only a third of his passes (6 / 17) for 72. The offense did not move well against NIU with Julian in charge and relied on the run. He hurt his head against NIU and did not return.
---- Senior Dwight Macon came off the bench to replace Julian and nearly led TTUN to a win over NIU. Julian was recruited originally to be a QB but got moved to WR for his athleticism. He went 7 / 10 against NIU for 119 and a long TD. He also rushed for 97 and 2 TDs on 18 attempts. He is an athletic guy. I do think some of his success against NIU can be written off to NIU not prepping to face a mobile guy, but regardless he nearly led TTUN to a win. He was very effective on the zone read.
---- You can bet Campbell is going to be keep QB health information close to his chest. There are three QBs with three different styles we have to be prepped to face. Woodside is the best passer, Julian is a big bodied and mobile guy with a lot of upside but no experience, and Macon is as athletic as they get.
---- The Blade reports that Macon will likely get the start. There is no telling how accurate that is, so we must be ready for all three. But Macon presents a unique threat with his legs. This would be his first collegiate start.
- TTUN leans heavily on the run game in order to open the pass game. They spread you out and run the ball well.
---- Sophomore Kareem Hunt is the primary runner. He is nearly to 1000 yards on 121 attempts (8.14 average!!) and 8 TDs. He is one of the conference's best backs and has great vision to find a hole. He was supposedly playing against NIU with an injury sustained in the Kent game, but his stats against NIU (18 for 119) looked plenty healthy.
---- Freshman Terry Swanson has gotten his share of carries too, at 106 for 702 and 6 TDs. He averages a nice 6.69 a carry. He is another good one and TTUN has a deep set of backs.
---- Sophomore Damion Jones-Moore has also seen a good amount of carries, with 59 for 308 and 3 TDs.
- Some teams spread the ball out to lots of receivers. TTUN only has two receivers with over 20 receptions, but still there are some receivers of note.
---- Sophomore Corey Jones is the receptions and yards leader with 60 for 744 and 4 TDs. He is a smaller dude at 5-8 165 but he's a great athlete.
---- We all unfortunately remember junior Alonzo Russell from last year. He's a big bodied guy at 6-4 205. He has 43 receptions for 609 (average 14.16) and a team high 7 TDs. He'll present a serious matchup challenge for our corners.
---- They also have another big bodied guy in senior Justin Olack (6-4 220). He only has 17 receptions but he averages a team high 15.06 per grab and has 3 TDs.
---- It looks to me like this is an explosive receiving corps. The offense spreads you out, relies upon the run, and uses that run game to open up the pass game. It is difficult to cover one 6'4 receiver. Asking a team to also cover two 6'4 receivers, while also trying to stuff a great run game, is a high, high order.
- Also of major note is the offensive line. Phil Steele rated the offensive line as a legit top 10 or so nationwide line. The line has a ton of experience ... and do they ever know how to open up the run. They've also only given up 11 sacks, 6 of which were against Mizzou and Cincinnati. This offensive line is truly the anchor of the offense.
- This offense is probably the most complete offense we have seen in conference play. They have the best offensive line we've seen besides our Big Ten opponents, they have a deep set of backs, and some big and explosive receivers.
- The big question is quarterback. TTUN has had serious injury problems there. As far as I know, none of the three that played against NIU (Woodside, Julian, and Macon) are ruled out of the game. Macon is the most healthy and would be my guess for the start, and the Blade seems to agree. We have to prep for all three ... while also dealing with that offensive line and the offensive playmakers.
Defense
- Defensively TTUN has allowed in conference play an average of 25.3 ppg, which is a hair more than our 24.3 ppg. This is a pretty good defense that is especially good against the run but not so solid against the pass.
- The leading tackler is senior linebacker Junior Sylvestre, with 81 total tackles (46 solo). He seems to be in on every play. I thought I'd at some point quit hearing his name against NIU but never did.
---- The second leading tackler is actually a defensive end. Senior Ray Bush has 58 tackles (33 solo) so he also is in on a ton of plays. He played LB last year and moved to DE.
---- There are three other guys with 50+ tackles: junior corner Chris Dukes (57, 42 solo), junior linebacker Trent Voss (57, 29 solo, 5 TFL, 4 sacks), and sophomore safety DeJuan Rogers (54, 31 solo).
- I won't highlight other individual efforts. This is a case where I think it's better to highlight not the individual but the team stats ... so here we go.
---- Defensively against the run, they are pretty good, allowing 3.81 per carry.
---- Against the pass, not quite as good, allowing over 300 per game and already 29 TDs.
---- The team has totaled 20 sacks in 10 games (we've come up with 17, so they have a slight edge on us though they did not play Wisconsin).
---- The team has totaled 8 interceptions (we've come up with 11, so we've got a definite edge).
---- The team has only forced 7 fumbles, recovered 2 (we're among the best in the country, forcing 22 coming up with 13).
- It is hard to get a solid read on the D. They are good against the run, a bit of a sieve against the pass, and are not great at coming up with turnovers.
---- When the third leading tackler is a corner, you've got a good indication that teams like to air it out against these guys.
- I think our key against their D is to establish the run and establish it fast. We'll be able to pass on them, but if we can also run on them and force them to bring pressure to stop the run, then we'll be able to move all we want. Or at least that is my prognosis.
Special Teams
- Jeremiah Detmer was preseason first team all-conference K. He has made 16 / 19, so our game will be a battle of the conference's best two kickers.
- The P, Nick Ellis, averages 36 a boot ... which is OK but not great.
- TTUN traditionally is known for punt and kick returns. Bernard Reedy and Eric Page in the past few years made punt and kick returns look rather easy.
---- This year is not quite the same. The team has a combined 0 punt and kick return TDs, and the only punt returner, Corey Jones (the small quick athletic receiver I mentioned earlier), averages less than 6 a return. (For comparison sake, Burbrink averages a hair above 12.)
Overall
- TTUN just lost their first conference game, and it was a close game where two QBs came out with injury and a WR/QB nearly led to victory. The team has won some close games. They just know how to win.
- Statistically the team looks solid but does not look that dominant. They run the ball very well, they have a great offensive line, their defense does a good job at stopping the run, they don't turn the ball over very often, they don't force many turnovers. But they win tight ones.
- I have to say I was stunned how good the offense looked with a fourth string QB on Tuesday. We need to be ready for his athleticism because we have not seen many mobile QBs this season.
---- They like to run the zone read a lot and Macon adds another dimension. We'd better be ready.
- TTUN has won tight games in conference play. All of their conference games have been one or two possession games. The biggest win was a 14 point win over CMU. They also lucked out against WMU when WMU had an XP hit the upright in OT. WMU had that game but TTUN forced OT as time expired.
- It looks to me like this is a disciplined team. And the fact that they run the ball so much allows them to control the clock. WMU dominated TTUN in time of possession ... and in every other conference game TTUN has won and sometimes dominated time of possession.
- As for some intangibles, there is motivation from both teams. Our guys want to finally win this rivalry game, especially our seniors. TTUN has almost no chance of going to the conference title game if they lose, and that is after starting 5-0 in conference play.
- If our defense continues their high level of play, we'll be able to keep the offense in check. If we can prevent them from getting 5 or 6 yards rushing on first down, we can get them off the field.
- Our offense needs our backs to be healthy. Greene's status is anybody's guess (my guess is he plays), and Coppet's status is also anybody's guess (my guess is he also plays but is limited).
- My instinct is the game comes down to who runs the ball better. Both passing offenses have explosive potential and both are relying upon the run. We just held Kent to 22 yards, who rushed for 171 against TTUN. Advantage: us.
- This will be a close game, and this is the year where the slide ends.
Be happy if:
- We run well
- Knapke makes plays and does not turn it over
- Our defense sees 2nd and long, 3rd and long instead of 2nd and 4, 3rd and 1
Worry if:
- Knapke has to be the whole offense
- Our defense has problems stopping the run
- TTUN's QBs are effective
