ye olde Purdue preview by MarkL
Posted: Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:13 pm
Welcome to ye olde BGSU Football Preview by MarkL, 2015 edition, game 4 ... but first preview. I had to wait a bit to see how each team was doing before being able to semi-comfortably preview a team.
And actually I originally wasn't going to do a Purdue preview in order to get through non-conf first. But I'm a Purdue grad along with being a Bowling Green grad, so I figured after the Memphis game, why the hell not?
And same disclaimer as last year applies. These are all my thoughts and I cannot predict the future, or else I'd have won the lottery by now. And if my previews suck, let me know and I'll quit. Otherwise I'll have my fun each week and put these together. And I hope you all enjoy reading these, and chime in with your thoughts.
So here we go!
Purdue
This game is an interesting one for me personally because it is a battle of my Alma Maters. BS, BGSU, Computer Science and MS, Purdue University, Cyber Forensics. That being said, I cheer for the better school in football. Which leads me to ....
The Series
BGSU is all-time 2-0 vs Purdue in 1972 and 2003. Both times Purdue was ranked 18, both times were at Ross-Ade Stadium, and both times Bowling Green stole a win. Like I said, I cheer for the better of my schools in football.
Offense
- Austin Appleby is the QB and as far as I know he is starting against us. When I start a statement out like that, you know there must be some issues going on.
...- Appleby came in to Purdue in 2013 (aka the worst Purdue team in the history of often awful Purdue teams) with a lot of promise. He was a 3* recruit with offers from about every MAC team (including us) along with Louisville.
...- He took over as the starter last year and didn't exactly set the world on fire throwing 10 TDs to 11 picks.
...- This year he is again on the wrong side of the ratio with 5 TDs and 6 interceptions. 4 of the TDs were against FCS Indiana State. More on the interceptions later.
...- He is a big guy at 6'5 239 and is about as mobile as you'd expect a 6'5 239 guy to be. Surprisingly he already has 37 rushes on the season for all of 73 yards.
...- Passing wise, he is 60 / 110 (54.5) for 669. So his completions go for 11 a piece but 54.5 is a low completion ratio.
...- I said I'd get to the interceptions later and I will when going over Purdue's schedule. But overall, I'd say Appleby is about as scary as Maryland's QBs were. It will be awfully nice to not see Paxton Lynch slinging the ball around next week.
- As you could imagine, the passing game is struggling for Purdue. The running game is certainly more successfull.
...- Markell Jones is a freshman and is leading the way with 32 carries for 229 - 7.16 average - and 3 TDs. It certainly helps that he had a long of 60 against Virginia Tech. Impressive.
......- Jones is 5'11 207, so a good sized freshman back. And he runs a 4.47 40, so he's got breakaway speed. He's a dangerous guy.
...- Purdue splits the carries pretty evenly and as far as I can tell, the starter is actually D.J. Knox. He has 46 carries for 209.
......- Knox is a sophomore and is a bit smaller at 5'7 197.
...- The backs look good, but the offensive line looks better. More on them in a bit.
- Purdue has some good size in the receiving corps and they also have some guys with good averages per catch.
...- DeAngelo Yancey at 6'2 223 leads the way with 9 receptions for 170 - almost 19 a catch and a TD.
...- Cameron Posey is a quicker guy at 6'1 182 with 7 for 119 - 17 a catch and a TD.
...- Anthony Mahoungou only has four receptions but they are for 59 - almost 15 a catch.
......- Note - Mahoungou is from France. Long way from home.
...- The receiving corps looks to me like they have all kinds of potential. They have great averages per catch and a good blend of size and speed. However they don't hook up with their QB enough, and we're talking about a junior QB and sophomore to senior receivers. What that means is you can rule youth out as a reason for, say, miscommunications. It looks to me like either the QB is just not accurate or the QB and receivers are not on the same page enough.
- And finally, the offensive line. Purdue returns their entire offensive line from last year, and they are no doubt the strength of the offense.
...- The entire starting offensive line is juniors and seniors. Last year our defense had no answers for good veteran O lines - UT, NIU, BSU, Wisconsin. I do fear this line could be more of the same.
...- Purdue is a bit of an international team. Joining a WR from France is David Hedelin, an OT from Stockholm, Sweden.
...- And for your scary moment of the day, they have an offensive lineman named Corey Clements. He is 6'8 420. Thankfully he is not a starter, but they may bring him in for short yardage situations. Although it would be strategically awful to see him demolish our front 7, I have to admit it might be funny to watch.
...- My biggest fear playing Purdue is their line will allow the offense to run on us all day. If we get behind in this one, the running game behind that big line can chew up the clock, keep our offense off the field, and take away opportunities to score. If we get behind and we cannot stop the run, we are in trouble.
Defense
- Purdue's defense has not exactly been stellar and they have not seen anything like our offense. They gave up 51 points to a decent VT offense starting a backup QB after OSU injured the starter.
- I believe the problem on defense is talent because it certainly is not experience. The top two tacklers are sophomores, and behind them the third through eighth leading tacklers are all juniors and seniors.
- Ja'Whaun Bentley at LB is the leading tackler with 26 total - 14 solo. He's a big LB at 6'2 260. Not surprisingly he also leads TFLs with 5.5.
- I write the following off to it being early in the season where stats are often strange. The second leading tackler is a DE. Antoine Miles is a small DE at 6'3 236 - smaller than our DEs. But he is the second leading tackler with 19 total, 11 solo.
- Leroy Clark at safety is the third leading tackler with 17 total, 11 solo. He also has one of the team's three interceptions.
- It's probably not a good sign that the fourth leading tackler is a corner. Either that means teams pass towards his side a lot or he has to clean up too many plays that get into the secondary. Frankie Williams, a senior CB, also has 17 tackles but only 8 solo.
- Two things to note on Purdue's defense ...
...- In three games they have 32 TFLs. I'm sure this stat is helped by playing an FCS team, but still that is damn impressive.
...- In three games they have 9 sacks. Again I'm sure this stat is helped by playing an FCS team (5 sacks vs Indiana State).
- Overall I think I like the matchup of our offense vs Purdue's defense. We can score on these guys. But the TFLs and sacks are concerning, especially considering the way Johnson was under duress late against Memphis.
Special Teams
- We've had special teams problems. That is well documented on this board. The good news is we're facing another team with some special teams problems.
- As a team, Purdue has returned a total of 2 punts in 3 games for a net of 5 yards. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!!?? I'm guessing that means the Purdue defense is either not getting enough stops or is getting stops in position for punts to go into the end zone. I'll for now write this one off to early season stats.
- As I said, 2 total punt returns for a net of 5 yards. Trae Hart, a WR has one punt return for 9 yards.
- So naturally, Frankie Williams, the corner I mentioned earlier, has a punt return for -4 yards.
...- The return unit hasn't had any chances to show what they're made of. I hope the trend continues this week.
- Danny Anthrop, another WR, is the KR. 16 yard average. Not much to say.
- Paul Griggs handles kickoffs and place kicks. He is a 50% FG kicker. Early season, hard telling if the trend will improve. And about 50% of his kickoffs are touchbacks so he has a strong leg.
- The star of the specialists as far as I can tell is the punter, Joe Schopper. He's averaging almost 45 a punt. Not bad.
- I'd sure like to see our ST get on track before conference play. It could happen this week. Not saying it will, but it could. I also could win the lottery tomorrow.
Purdue's season thus far
- Purdue is 1-2, 0-2 vs FBS.
- Marshall - Purdue lost 41-31
...- Purdue had a chance to win late as they were down by 3 and driving. But Appleby threw a pick 6 with 1:20 left to seal the deal.
...- That pick 6 was one of 2 pick 6's and one of 4 interceptions by Appleby. Quite simple, turnovers and specifically defensive TDs were the difference.
...- Purdue outgained Marshall by over 50 and controlled the clock with nearly a 10 minute advantage. And naturally Purdue was better on 3rd downs.
...- Purdue lost because of turnovers. (I kept saying I'd get to the interceptions!)
- Indiana State - Purdue won 38-14
...- Not much to say here. You're supposed to beat Indiana State and Purdue did just that.
- Virginia Tech - Purdue lost 51-24
...- This game was complete domination in favor of the Hokies. VT started a backup QB after OSU broke the starter's collarbone and the backup had a good day.
...- Purdue was dominated in total yards, first downs, passing yards, and rushing yards.
...- VT had a 2-0 (TD-INT) ratio where Purdue went 0-2.
...- Purdue had 144 yards rushing on 29 carries. One of the carries was a 60 yard TD. That means the remaining 28 carries averaged 3 a piece.
...- Purdue was totally humiliated at home.
Which all leads me to ....
Bowling Green vs Purdue
- I'm not too worried about us scoring on Purdue. I think Johnson and the entire offense will have another great day. Not much to say here except be prepared for Purdue's front 7 getting into the backfield early and often.
- I am worried about our front seven going up against that big offensive line and the running game. Where Memphis was able to run on us by always being a step ahead with the misdirections, Purdue can run on us by simply powering and controlling the LOS.
...- Note - I had a similar worry against Maryland. Our new DC drew up a good scheme and our quick LBs stuffed the run much of the day. So maybe I'm worrying too much.
- Appleby at QB has a 1-6 (TD-INT) ratio vs FBS schools. We intercepted 3 picks vs our last Big Ten school.
- If we play clean, mistake-free football and get an early lead, we have a great chance of winning and maybe even winning comfortably.
- If we make dumb mistakes or allow big plays to go the wrong way, we are in trouble.
- And if we get behind and we cannot stop the run, we are in BIG trouble.
- This is a very winnable game. The top three things I want out of this one ...
...- a BG win!
...- fewer penalties and other self-inflicted mistakes
...- no injuries. None for either team.
So there you have it. You wasted another perfectly good twenty minutes by reading through my preview
In all seriousness I enjoy putting these together. It's a good way for me to learn a bit more about both our team and our opponent each week. Come conference time I especially enjoy it because I so often do not get to see much MAC football these days. These previews keep me knowledgeable on the MAC.
And actually I originally wasn't going to do a Purdue preview in order to get through non-conf first. But I'm a Purdue grad along with being a Bowling Green grad, so I figured after the Memphis game, why the hell not?
And same disclaimer as last year applies. These are all my thoughts and I cannot predict the future, or else I'd have won the lottery by now. And if my previews suck, let me know and I'll quit. Otherwise I'll have my fun each week and put these together. And I hope you all enjoy reading these, and chime in with your thoughts.
So here we go!
Purdue
This game is an interesting one for me personally because it is a battle of my Alma Maters. BS, BGSU, Computer Science and MS, Purdue University, Cyber Forensics. That being said, I cheer for the better school in football. Which leads me to ....
The Series
BGSU is all-time 2-0 vs Purdue in 1972 and 2003. Both times Purdue was ranked 18, both times were at Ross-Ade Stadium, and both times Bowling Green stole a win. Like I said, I cheer for the better of my schools in football.
Offense
- Austin Appleby is the QB and as far as I know he is starting against us. When I start a statement out like that, you know there must be some issues going on.
...- Appleby came in to Purdue in 2013 (aka the worst Purdue team in the history of often awful Purdue teams) with a lot of promise. He was a 3* recruit with offers from about every MAC team (including us) along with Louisville.
...- He took over as the starter last year and didn't exactly set the world on fire throwing 10 TDs to 11 picks.
...- This year he is again on the wrong side of the ratio with 5 TDs and 6 interceptions. 4 of the TDs were against FCS Indiana State. More on the interceptions later.
...- He is a big guy at 6'5 239 and is about as mobile as you'd expect a 6'5 239 guy to be. Surprisingly he already has 37 rushes on the season for all of 73 yards.
...- Passing wise, he is 60 / 110 (54.5) for 669. So his completions go for 11 a piece but 54.5 is a low completion ratio.
...- I said I'd get to the interceptions later and I will when going over Purdue's schedule. But overall, I'd say Appleby is about as scary as Maryland's QBs were. It will be awfully nice to not see Paxton Lynch slinging the ball around next week.
- As you could imagine, the passing game is struggling for Purdue. The running game is certainly more successfull.
...- Markell Jones is a freshman and is leading the way with 32 carries for 229 - 7.16 average - and 3 TDs. It certainly helps that he had a long of 60 against Virginia Tech. Impressive.
......- Jones is 5'11 207, so a good sized freshman back. And he runs a 4.47 40, so he's got breakaway speed. He's a dangerous guy.
...- Purdue splits the carries pretty evenly and as far as I can tell, the starter is actually D.J. Knox. He has 46 carries for 209.
......- Knox is a sophomore and is a bit smaller at 5'7 197.
...- The backs look good, but the offensive line looks better. More on them in a bit.
- Purdue has some good size in the receiving corps and they also have some guys with good averages per catch.
...- DeAngelo Yancey at 6'2 223 leads the way with 9 receptions for 170 - almost 19 a catch and a TD.
...- Cameron Posey is a quicker guy at 6'1 182 with 7 for 119 - 17 a catch and a TD.
...- Anthony Mahoungou only has four receptions but they are for 59 - almost 15 a catch.
......- Note - Mahoungou is from France. Long way from home.
...- The receiving corps looks to me like they have all kinds of potential. They have great averages per catch and a good blend of size and speed. However they don't hook up with their QB enough, and we're talking about a junior QB and sophomore to senior receivers. What that means is you can rule youth out as a reason for, say, miscommunications. It looks to me like either the QB is just not accurate or the QB and receivers are not on the same page enough.
- And finally, the offensive line. Purdue returns their entire offensive line from last year, and they are no doubt the strength of the offense.
...- The entire starting offensive line is juniors and seniors. Last year our defense had no answers for good veteran O lines - UT, NIU, BSU, Wisconsin. I do fear this line could be more of the same.
...- Purdue is a bit of an international team. Joining a WR from France is David Hedelin, an OT from Stockholm, Sweden.
...- And for your scary moment of the day, they have an offensive lineman named Corey Clements. He is 6'8 420. Thankfully he is not a starter, but they may bring him in for short yardage situations. Although it would be strategically awful to see him demolish our front 7, I have to admit it might be funny to watch.
...- My biggest fear playing Purdue is their line will allow the offense to run on us all day. If we get behind in this one, the running game behind that big line can chew up the clock, keep our offense off the field, and take away opportunities to score. If we get behind and we cannot stop the run, we are in trouble.
Defense
- Purdue's defense has not exactly been stellar and they have not seen anything like our offense. They gave up 51 points to a decent VT offense starting a backup QB after OSU injured the starter.
- I believe the problem on defense is talent because it certainly is not experience. The top two tacklers are sophomores, and behind them the third through eighth leading tacklers are all juniors and seniors.
- Ja'Whaun Bentley at LB is the leading tackler with 26 total - 14 solo. He's a big LB at 6'2 260. Not surprisingly he also leads TFLs with 5.5.
- I write the following off to it being early in the season where stats are often strange. The second leading tackler is a DE. Antoine Miles is a small DE at 6'3 236 - smaller than our DEs. But he is the second leading tackler with 19 total, 11 solo.
- Leroy Clark at safety is the third leading tackler with 17 total, 11 solo. He also has one of the team's three interceptions.
- It's probably not a good sign that the fourth leading tackler is a corner. Either that means teams pass towards his side a lot or he has to clean up too many plays that get into the secondary. Frankie Williams, a senior CB, also has 17 tackles but only 8 solo.
- Two things to note on Purdue's defense ...
...- In three games they have 32 TFLs. I'm sure this stat is helped by playing an FCS team, but still that is damn impressive.
...- In three games they have 9 sacks. Again I'm sure this stat is helped by playing an FCS team (5 sacks vs Indiana State).
- Overall I think I like the matchup of our offense vs Purdue's defense. We can score on these guys. But the TFLs and sacks are concerning, especially considering the way Johnson was under duress late against Memphis.
Special Teams
- We've had special teams problems. That is well documented on this board. The good news is we're facing another team with some special teams problems.
- As a team, Purdue has returned a total of 2 punts in 3 games for a net of 5 yards. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!!?? I'm guessing that means the Purdue defense is either not getting enough stops or is getting stops in position for punts to go into the end zone. I'll for now write this one off to early season stats.
- As I said, 2 total punt returns for a net of 5 yards. Trae Hart, a WR has one punt return for 9 yards.
- So naturally, Frankie Williams, the corner I mentioned earlier, has a punt return for -4 yards.
...- The return unit hasn't had any chances to show what they're made of. I hope the trend continues this week.
- Danny Anthrop, another WR, is the KR. 16 yard average. Not much to say.
- Paul Griggs handles kickoffs and place kicks. He is a 50% FG kicker. Early season, hard telling if the trend will improve. And about 50% of his kickoffs are touchbacks so he has a strong leg.
- The star of the specialists as far as I can tell is the punter, Joe Schopper. He's averaging almost 45 a punt. Not bad.
- I'd sure like to see our ST get on track before conference play. It could happen this week. Not saying it will, but it could. I also could win the lottery tomorrow.
Purdue's season thus far
- Purdue is 1-2, 0-2 vs FBS.
- Marshall - Purdue lost 41-31
...- Purdue had a chance to win late as they were down by 3 and driving. But Appleby threw a pick 6 with 1:20 left to seal the deal.
...- That pick 6 was one of 2 pick 6's and one of 4 interceptions by Appleby. Quite simple, turnovers and specifically defensive TDs were the difference.
...- Purdue outgained Marshall by over 50 and controlled the clock with nearly a 10 minute advantage. And naturally Purdue was better on 3rd downs.
...- Purdue lost because of turnovers. (I kept saying I'd get to the interceptions!)
- Indiana State - Purdue won 38-14
...- Not much to say here. You're supposed to beat Indiana State and Purdue did just that.
- Virginia Tech - Purdue lost 51-24
...- This game was complete domination in favor of the Hokies. VT started a backup QB after OSU broke the starter's collarbone and the backup had a good day.
...- Purdue was dominated in total yards, first downs, passing yards, and rushing yards.
...- VT had a 2-0 (TD-INT) ratio where Purdue went 0-2.
...- Purdue had 144 yards rushing on 29 carries. One of the carries was a 60 yard TD. That means the remaining 28 carries averaged 3 a piece.
...- Purdue was totally humiliated at home.
Which all leads me to ....
Bowling Green vs Purdue
- I'm not too worried about us scoring on Purdue. I think Johnson and the entire offense will have another great day. Not much to say here except be prepared for Purdue's front 7 getting into the backfield early and often.
- I am worried about our front seven going up against that big offensive line and the running game. Where Memphis was able to run on us by always being a step ahead with the misdirections, Purdue can run on us by simply powering and controlling the LOS.
...- Note - I had a similar worry against Maryland. Our new DC drew up a good scheme and our quick LBs stuffed the run much of the day. So maybe I'm worrying too much.
- Appleby at QB has a 1-6 (TD-INT) ratio vs FBS schools. We intercepted 3 picks vs our last Big Ten school.
- If we play clean, mistake-free football and get an early lead, we have a great chance of winning and maybe even winning comfortably.
- If we make dumb mistakes or allow big plays to go the wrong way, we are in trouble.
- And if we get behind and we cannot stop the run, we are in BIG trouble.
- This is a very winnable game. The top three things I want out of this one ...
...- a BG win!
...- fewer penalties and other self-inflicted mistakes
...- no injuries. None for either team.
So there you have it. You wasted another perfectly good twenty minutes by reading through my preview
In all seriousness I enjoy putting these together. It's a good way for me to learn a bit more about both our team and our opponent each week. Come conference time I especially enjoy it because I so often do not get to see much MAC football these days. These previews keep me knowledgeable on the MAC.