Buffalo preview

[MarkL]

I had some time today to put this preview together. In the future the preview may be Monday, it may be later in the week. Just whenever I get the time to do some quick research.

Now that a truly impressive non-conference slate is over, it is time to begin MAC play. The whole conference is collectively yanking out their hair trying to figure out how to stop our offense, so I expect we'll get everybody's best shot.

Buffalo
Is Buffalo a legit MAC East contender? At first look at the beginning of the season, I said no given a new coach. But upon closer look, this is a dangerous team.

The Series
- The series with Buffalo has been a whole lot of fun this past decade. This is my personal favorite east rival because so many games turn out to be a lot of fun. We are currently on a 4 game winning streak.
- 2006: The triple OT classic. Everything went wrong with BG special teams, but the defense came up with timely stops and the offense never got discouraged and it all added up to a 3OT win. I've never seen a team commit so many special teams mistakes of so many varieties and yet still win.
- 2007: BG never really dominated but led UB the whole game and set the pace. BG came up with big plays in the passing game to pull away for good.
- 2008: All BG needed to do was win this game to win the east. And then all BG needed to do was hang on to a 27-7 fourth quarter lead. BG failed and lost in 2OT, which ultimately led to Brandon's dismissal. And a massive headache for me the next morning.
- 2009: BG trailed all game but came up with big plays in the special teams and the offense came to life at just the right time. BG completed a fourth quarter comeback in the final seconds with a Sheehan to Barnes TD pass to steal the game.
- 2010: Two young teams went against each other. BG committed every offensive mistake imaginable but came up with just enough big plays to allow themselves a chance to win. In a perfect symbol of the game and really the whole season, UB fumbled the ball while running out the clock, BG had one chance to win the game with a FG, it looked good to all the fans but the ball apparently hooked. Perhaps the best worst game I've ever seen.
... - Note: 2010 was the one time in history where BG lost to UB was not followed by a BG coaching change.
- 2011: The season finale of a both disappointing-and-encouraging season, BG trailed early but caught fire and blew UB out of the stadium. BG's offense moved through the air as Schilz had one of his career best days, Kamar Jorden in his last game had one of his best, and BG set the stage for a big 2012.
- 2012: BG had to win the game to seal a bowl bid. There was little need to do anything on offense as the BG defense dominated UB. UB never really threatened to break past midfield and only scored when Schilz threw a poor interception late in the game.
- 2013: The stage was set for a winner-take-all season finale for the top two MAC east teams. BG trailed at the half but dominated the second half on all fronts. BG won the game in a stomping and went into Detroit with all the momentum imaginable.
- 2014: BG came up with late stops and a lucky FG miss and the offense scored on a truly #FalconFast last minute drive to complete a comeback win. The game was a microcosm for the season - defense was bad but did just enough to allow the offense a chance, and the offense came up with just enough drives to win the game.

Offense
- Senior QB Joe Licata was a trendy pick for 1st or 2nd Team pre-season All-MAC QB. The play of Matt Johnson all-but guarantees the ceiling for Licata is 2nd team.
...-Licata through four games is 82/127 (64.6) for 894. Pretty efficient numbers. Add in 6 TDs to 4 interceptions and you've got a decent start to the season.
...-Early season previews are always hard because stats are still pretty skewed. In a predictable blowout of Albany, Licata went 20/26 for 246, 2 TD/0 ints. Take away those results and he's 4 TDs / 4 ints and a 61% passer.
...-Licata played fine against a good Penn State defense. 24/35, 205, 2 TD/1 int.
...-So naturally the other two games (FAU and Nevada) were so-so for him. In those we went combined 38/56 2 TDs/3 ints. Buffalo beat FAU despite him completing 50% of his passes for no TDs. Buffalo beating FAU had little to do with Licata. More on the FAU game later.
...-He's 6'2 210. Good size but not overly mobile. He's been sacked 9 times for the season and is currently at -51 rush yards.
...-Our D has been pretty friendly to QBs not wearing Maryland state flags as uniforms. Our lack of depth in the secondary has been exposed. We're talented there but young and dangerously thin due to injuries. Licata could have a pretty good day against us, though I'll say he's a) a known guy as opposed to Purdue's first time starter and b) the least scary QB except for maybe Maryland's QBs. As I said last week, it will be nice not facing Paxton Lynch again.
-Buffalo has been the "Running Back U" of the MAC recently, putting James Starks and Branden Oliver into the NFL. Starks has been tremendous for Green Bay in his time there and Oliver has been a nice surprise for San Diego.
...-Which leads me to Buffalo's current backs. We all remember Anthone Taylor last year. We nearly lost to UB and Taylor was the main reason. I think Taylor also has legit NFL chances.
...-Taylor is now a senior. He's not a huge guy at 5'10 210 but he's a tough runner with good speed. He leads all runners with 76 carries for 381, 5 a carry, and 2 TDs. He is not as productive as he was last year when he finished with 1400 yards and 12 TDs. The reason for the drop of production appears to be ...
...-The emergence of Jordan Johnson. Whenever you have a new coach, you also have new schemes. Quinn used Taylor as often as Clawson used Greene. Leipold in his first year is splitting the carries more.
...-Johnson currently has 47 carries for 237 and 2 TDs. Johnson is a junior and is a bit bigger at 6'0 220.
...-Even with an FCS team on the schedule, neither of the two backs have a statistically great day to pad their numbers.
...-We pretty well handled Purdue's two-headed rushing attack. I hope we can do the same with Buffalo. The two runners have already combined for over 600. This is a balanced offense that relies heavily on establishing the run.
...-If we can prevent these guys from picking up 4-5 a carry, we're in good shape.
-Buffalo's receiving corps isn't exactly putting up eye-popping numbers. But there's still some significant notes.
...-2 of the top 5 receivers are TEs. Senior Matt Weiser has 17 for 176 (both second on the team) and a TD. 6'5, 255. Big dude.
...-And junior Mason Schreck is a bit of an ogre himself at 6-4 250. He's tied for fourth with 7 for 80.
...-The leading receiver is Ron Willoughby. He's a big dude at 6'4 210. He's the leader with 22 for 269 and a TD. I'd be worried about him on the deep ball.
-The offensive line is a mixed bag of experience
...-One redshirt senior, one redshirt junior, one true junior, one redshirt sophomore and one redshirt freshman
...-The line is a little bit bigger than ours. They are more designed to run-block. They would not do well with 100+ snaps a game.
...-The line has paved the way for 600+ rushing yards but has given up 9 sacks. So mixed results.

Defense
-Defensively, Buffalo is currently allowing 367 yards and 20 points per game. They are allowing a damn near even split between passing and rushing yards. And they held a decent PSU team to 27 points. All around this is a good defense aided by a great LB corps.
...-The first thing that jumps out at me is the tackles. The top three tacklers are the three starting linebackers - which is a good sign for a defense - and the next top four are defensive backs - which is not such a good sign. Where is the DL?
...-The three linebackers are seniors Okezie Alozie and Nick Gilbo, and junior Brandon Berry. They're all pretty typical sized linebackers for a MAC defense. They are a great LB corps and are all over the field. They are the core of the defense.
......-Remember Khalil Mack from 2010-2013? The good news is there's no Khalil Mack. The bad news is the linebackers are all great.
...-The secondary accounts for 3 of the team's 4 interceptions. Junior Boise Ross has 2 including a return TD and senior Ryan Williamson has one. The aforementioned linebacker senior Nick Gilbo also has a pick.
...-The team has 7 sacks. 4.5 of them are by the aforementioned senior linebackers Alozie and Gilbo.
...-Notice I have little to say about the D line. As a unit the D line has a total of 2 sacks, 5 TFL, and the top DL tackler is 9th on the team in total tackles.
......-Which is surprising because there is good size on the D line. (All 6'2 - 6'4, weights are 285, 285, 307 and 275). I think the issue is age. They are starting 2 juniors, a redshirt sophomore, and a redshirt freshman.
...-Here's possibly the most important thing to know about the Buffalo defense. UB beat FAU 33 to 15 despite only scoring one offensive TD and one FG - and giving up a safety.
......-60 yard fumble recovery for a TD.
......-39 yard interception return for a TD.
......-Safety.
......-11 yard fumble recovery off of a sack for a TD.
......-This is the same FAU team which had Miami (FL) tied at 20 early in the third before the 'Canes pulled away.
......-This is also the same FAU team which turned it over 5 times against the 'Canes.
...-Ball security is of utmost importance against this team. Don't turn it over and we should be fine.
...-Lance Leipold built Wisconsin-Whitewater on defense. This UB defense is keeping teams from scoring a lot and is keeping games in range of their offense. Now give Leipold some time and he may have an elite MAC defense on his hands.

Special Teams
-Not much to say about special teams. Consensed verison.
-A reserve PR has returned one punt which he brought back for a TD ... against Albany. The normal PR isn't doing much.
-The return units are not scary. If they return a big punt or kick against us I'll be really worried about our STs.
-Their kicker is 4/6 for the year.
-Our ST had little to do against Purdue. At some point I want to see our ST have a big role in a positive way on the outcome of a game. Here's a prime opportunity.

Buffalo's season thus far
-Buffalo is 2-2 and has not started conference play. This will also be their conference opener and it is at home.

-Buffalo steamrolled Albany. Not much to say about destroying an FCS team.

-Penn State 27, Buffalo 14
...-Buffalo's defense played really well in this one.
...-They held Christian Hackenberg to 128 yards on 14/27.
...-But they had problems against the run which is why Penn State led the whole way.
...-Good showing by a MAC team against a Big Ten team.

-Buffalo 33, FAU 15
...-I mentioned above Buffalo's defense winning this game. The offense didn't do much. As a team they ran 45 times for 185, so at no point did the running game really break loose.
...-Without the defense playing out of their minds (3 defensive TDs and a safety!), this would have been a loss.

-Nevada 24, Buffalo 21
...-In a close game, turnovers matter even more. Licata threw 2 interceptions in this one, including one with a minute to go to seal it.
...-The defense gave up a lot of rushing yards including a 91 yard run but held Nevada to 90 yards passing.

Which all leads me to ....
Bowling Green at Buffalo
-Buffalo plays a style of football that keeps games close. The offense is much slower and more deliberate than ours and their defense is solid. I imagine this is the style of play Purdue and Maryland will both be in the coming years. This is obviously not our hectic style of football.
-Buffalo's style of play is I think the blueprint to beat us. Solid defense, an offense built on the run game, which all allows the team to chew up time of possession. As I said last week, if we get behind and we cannot stop the run, we are genuinely in trouble.
-Buffalo's pass defense is good, but they've never seen anything like our pass offense.
-Buffalo's defensive line should allow us to run pretty nicely. If we can run on them efficiently or even explosively, we should be able to score a lot because pass plays can become that more more effective.
-When we're on defense there are some big guys to worry about in the passing game. We've seen missed tackles ... and I hate missed tackles ... so I am a bit worried about some of their playmakers.
-Buffalo has a solid though not normally explosive run game that pretty much powers it right at you, as opposed to Memphis' constant game of misdirection. We played a similar running game last week and fared nicely.
...-I'm really impressed by our front 7. I was worried going into the season but those guys are playing great. If they put another good effort in here we'll be fine.
-I said numerous times that we have four key MAC games - our home games. I didn't initially consider UB a serious east contender.
...-I still think UB is a year or so away from east contention. But never, never, never sleep on a great coach like Leipold.
-I feel like this is a game we should be able to win. We should be able to score on their defense, especially if the running game gets going, and keep them out of reach.
...-My concern is if we cannot stop their run and find ourselves constantly playing catchup. While we have the offense to score quickly, a good solid running game can control the clock and keep Matt Johnson and company on the sideline.
...-However I think it is more likely we, not they, dictate the pace of the game. I think our defense will get some early stops which will allow our offense to build an early lead. Buffalo is not a team built to play catchup.
-It is nice to finally get to MAC play instead of playing big team after big team with a defending champion of a damn good conference in the mix.
-This is certainly a winnable game. Three things I want out of this game ...
...-A 1-0 MAC start!
...-Fewer self-inflicted mistakes. We have fewer against Purdue but there still were some costly mistakes.
...-No injuries. None for either team.

First MAC preview is in the books. We'll see in a week how my projection fares against reality. It will be exciting to finally take on teams in our own league!

[jpfalcon09]

Great preview!

BG is an 8-point favorite, however I think this game will prove to be tricky if the offense has issues scoring points again in the red zone.

The weather may also be a concern, there's a tropical storm off the Atlantic coast which will move north during the week. Forecasts calling for breezy conditions with rain.