Western Michigan preview

[MarkL]

We do not play Western Michigan very often, and this year we catch one great team that is currently on fire. Western Michigan does not play Bowling Green very often, and they are catching one great team that is currently on fire. This could be a great game that will go a long way towards deciding the MAC Championship game teams. And these two teams could indeed be playing again in a few weeks.

TL;DR version
WMU is a great team that revolves around the offensive running game and they do not turn the ball over. They have few weaknesses. But they also have seen nothing like our offense.

The Series
- Believe it or not, the last time we beat WMU was in 2004. We beat them 52-0 after taking a 49-0 halftime lead. Our coaches took their headsets off and told the players to play the game, run out the clock, and don't get anybody injured
- In 2005 WMU injured Omar Jacobs which derailed our season. Jacobs returned several games later but he was not the same.
- WMU dominated our awful 2010 team. Our guys basically packed it in before the game even started
- Last year WMU allowed us a lot of yards but kept us out of the end zone for the most part

Offense
- WMU averages 38 ppg. In conference play, they average 47.4 points, and in their last two outings vs EMU and BSU they scored 58 and 54.
... - Note, I will be talking about conference play a lot. WMU had a slow start to the season but since beginning conference play they have been on fire.
... - So I will separate conference play away from the entire season in this preview.
- Junior QB Zach Terrell is having a great season, completing 187/268 (69.8%) for 23 TDs against only 6 interceptions.
... - In conference play, Terrell is 87/119 (73.1%) for 1253 and 13 TDs and 0 interceptions. He is efficient and smart with the ball.
... - Now I do not mean to knock on the guy, but the only great MAC team WMU has played so far is CMU and they won in a shootout where he passed for 4 TDs. WMU has not yet played us, UT, or NIU, and he also hasn't played solid defenses in Buffalo, Kent State, or Akron.
... - Still, the stats are outstanding. Our defense will need to be disruptive.
... - Terrell is not an overly big guy at 6-1 204. And he is not a running threat.
...... - Unless WMU throws a wrinkle at us like Ohio did.
- WMU is powered by the run game. The leader is sophomore Jarvion Franklin, with 135 carries for 660 and 5 TDs. Franklin is defending MAC offensive player of the year.
... - Franklin is a big guy at 6-0 220. And he has a good blend of power and speed.
... - Jamauri Bogan is putting together a great season with 646 yards on only 99 carries, averaging 6.53 a carry. And he has 9 TDs.
... - Bogan is a smaller, quicker guy at 5-7 174. He and Franklin make this running attack scary.
... - He has some breakaway runs which help his average.
... - Freshman receiver LeVante Bellamy is a big part of the run game, with 40 carries for 327 yards. He too has some big breakaway runs which really prop his total up.
... - Bellamy is 5-11 185, which is a good size for either a slot receiver or a speed back.
... - This running attack is scary. Like the scariest running attack we've seen by far since Tennessee.
- By the stats, I think WMU only has two receivers on roster, but they're good.
... - Junior Daniel Braverman has 85 receptions for 999 yards and 11 TDs. Chances are he'll become a 1000 yard receiver in our game.
...... - Braverman is a smaller guy at 5-10 177 but he seems to always be open.
... - Junior Corey Davis has 56 receptions for 832 yards and 8 TDs.
...... - Davis is a bigger guy at 6-3 205. So WMU's two top receivers complement each other nicely.
... - The next leading receiver only has 15 receptions.
- The WMU offensive line is great, as one could imagine given the lack of sacks and the incredible running game.
... - There are a freshman, a sophomore, two juniors, and a senior starting on the line. That is a scary thought going into the future for WMU opponents.
... - The line is not that big. Only one 300+ among the starters.
... - I get the idea that the line lost a lot of weight this past year, like ours. This is an athletic and effective line.
- This is a great offense. They are powered by the run, and the QB never throws the game away.

Defense
- WMU gives up an average of 26.6 ppg. In conference play, they give up an average of 20.2.
... - The conference average is positively skewed by a shootout with CMU (first conference game). Take that away and they allow an average of 15.5
- The leading tackler is safety Asantay Brown with 70 total, 39 solo. Brown also has 2 interceptions.
- Linebacker Austin Lewis is the second leading tackler with 51 total, 22 solo.
- Linebacker Caleb Bailey leads the team with 10 TFLs.
... - As a team, WMU has 52 TFLs.
- Defensive End Deion Adams leads the team with 3.5 sacks.
... - As a team, WMU has 10 sacks, which is fewer than some of our recent opponents.
- This defense by nearly all statistics does not look as good as our recent defenses. They do not get into the backfield as much as our recent opponents, and they have yet to recover a fumble.
... - Yet they only give up 20 ppg in conference play. And they held Ball State to 152 yards last week.
- So this defense is pretty good. But I think the closest they've seen to our offense is CMU, and they allowed 39 points to the Chips.

Special Teams
- The aforementioned receiver Daniel Braverman averages 10.5 per punt return. I don't have his full log but I expect he has one or two big returns which skew his average up.
... - He has no PR TDs but he is a great athlete and we cannot let him chew us up in STs.
- DB Darius Phillips handles KR. He averages 25.79 per return and he has a TD.
... - The ST return units are good. This is a sign of team athleticism and depth.
- Senior Andrew Haldeman is one of the conference's better kickers. He is 10/14 on the season.
- Punter J Schroeder averages 41.74 a boot, which is pretty good. And by all accounts his name is listed as J.
... - He is studying political science. I half wonder if that is a cover for his career in stopping alien attacks with his sidekick K.

WMU's season so far
- WMU is 6-3 (5-0)
- WMU turned a corner in conference play. Non conference play did not treat them well.
... - They went 1-3 with a decent showing against a good MSU team and an awful outing against a great Georgia Southern team. 5 of Terrell's 6 interceptions were against MSU and Georgia Southern.
- WMU won a shootout with CMU. CMU rallied late but missed a tying two point conversion.
- WMU 49, OU 14
... - I will highlight this game specifically because I find it highly relevant
... - WMU completely destroyed the same (albeit more injured) team that we just completely destroyed
... - Zach Terrell went 14/20 for only 137, but 3 TDs
... - WMU rushed for 430 on 44 carries. They ran so well that passing was an afterthought
... - The rush numbers are ridiculous. Bellamy had a 56 yarder to lead the way with 149, Bogan had a 67 yarder to finish with 135, and Franklin ran for 95 on 13 carries
... - OU was held to 99 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Remember, OU ran for 299 on 56 attempts vs us.
...... - However much of OU's rushing plan vs us was the QB run, which we were not expecting because they hadn't done it all year. The QB run was a non-factor vs WMU
- WMU beat MU soundly despite being held to under 150 yards on the ground.
- WMU unsurprisingly destroyed EMU while surprisingly allowing 3 TD passes.
- WMU completely flattened BSU, holding the Cards to 152 total yards while passing for 353 and rushing for 358, an impressively even showing. Corey Davis caught 3 TD passes.
... - The win was every bit as dominant as our wins over Akron and Kent.

MAC East vs MAC West
- Before getting to the meat of the WMU / BG game, I think it would be a good idea to discuss how the east has fared against the west so far, this being our first west game.
- The MAC East is currently 2-8 vs the MAC West
... - The two wins were beating EMU, so they barely count
- I already highlighted above WMU's absolute demolition of Ohio. That was about the same level of ugliness as Buffalo's 51-14 beatdown by CMU
... - At least Akron kept it close with CMU, losing by 8.
- On the flip side, we have beaten all the east teams just as ugly. Western beat OU by 35, we beat them by 38
- Point is, you have to view all the stats, and our statistical matchup, knowing the utter dominance of the MAC West over the MAC East.
- For example, last year's MAC title game was statistically a shockingly even matchup. However, the MAC East went 3-15 on the regular season vs the west and BG was beaten by NIU badly

Which all leads me to ...
Bowling Green at Western Michigan
- We are currently 3 point favorites.
- There should not be rain but the game will probably be chilly with moderate winds. Our offense should not be impacted too adversely by weather.
- WMU is hot right now. They just had a dominant win over BSU and they are running the ball at will.
- We are hot right now. We have a Heisman contending QB and the best WR the conference has seen in years and an offense that is moving the ball at will.
- This could be a high scoring affair, and both teams have experience in high scoring affairs.
- WMU relies upon the run to power their offense and allow for big plays in the passing game. We rely upon the pass and use the run to catch defenses napping. Opposing styles that are both hitting on all cylinders.
- Our defense has played quite well most of this year. They were outmanned against Tennessee and Memphis, and were caught off-guard by OU's QB run.
... - But this WMU offense is a different beast. They run, run, run, and run on your, then hit you with the pass for the big play.
- On the flip side, WMU's defense has seen nothing like our offense. The most similar offense they have seen is CMU, and that is not even close to what we run and our talent.
... - And CMU was the one MAC team that had a chance against WMU.
- For all that WMU has impressed, it is worth noting that CMU is the only upper-level MAC team they have played.
... - I think most would consider us, WMU, NIU, and UT to be the top of the MAC with CMU just behind. WMU won a crazy shootout over CMU, and now they have us, NIU, and UT. Brutal schedule.
... - Point is, while they are highly impressive, there is a chance there is some mirage to their results. I'm hoping that is the case but not betting on it. I think WMU is an outstanding team with few weaknesses.
- It is perhaps worth noting how they were handled by Georgia State. The Eagles only went 1/4 through the air for 7 yards. GSU is a running team and they ran at will for 400+.
... - And they held WMU to 25 yards rushing when you subtract sack yardage.
... - On the one hand, GSU showed a way to beat WMU. Keep their offense on the sideline.
... - On the other hand, WMU is a different team now than they were early in the season.
- I see two ways to beat WMU.
... 1, the preferable though less plausible way, shut down the run. GSU did it, maybe possibly we can follow their scheme and do it too.
...... - Force Terrell to beat us. Terrell has been perfect in conference games but he hasn't had to win games, he's just had to make big plays on occasion and not turn the ball over.
...... - So if we force his hand by stuffing the run, we may be able to stop their offense.
... 2, the less preferable and more plausible way, score more points than they are capable of scoring.
...... - Get the ball, score a TD fast. Play some defense, hopefully give up less than 7 points.
...... - Wash, rinse, repeat. And create some highlight reel plays.
- I do believe that no matter how good WMU is, this is a beatable team. They have seen nothing like our offense.
- At minimum, this will be a great game. Both teams are hot right now.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - A 6-0 conference record! Which would end WMU's quest for conference perfection
... - End the MAC West slump. The last time we beat a MAC west team was when we ruined NIU's perfect 2013 campaign.
... - The best defensive effort of the season to compliment an explosive and efficient offense
... - National TV recognition of our players. Now that Alabama effectively ended Fournette's Heisman campaign, the race is wide open. If Matt Johnson impresses on national TV this month, you never know.
... - No injuries. None for either team. Both teams are beginning the most critical parts of their seasons and I want both to leave this game healthy and ready to finish strong. After all, this game could be the first of two meetings this season.

[kdog27]

Thanks Mark. I always hate how the previews on bgsufalcons.com just give the same information about BG that we have read 10 times while giving next to nothing information on the upcoming team they are playing.

[jpfalcon09]

The rain will be a wildcard, looks like it might hold off until later in the game but that can't be promised. Weather.com has precipitation beginning around 11pm with the winds increasing around 9pm.

[Falconfreak90]

Thanks Mark....always a great preview. This is the best team we will play all year...I think they are on par with Memphis. Should be a hell of a game.

BTW, The East is now 2-8 against the West as Miami beat EMU last weekend. The way the West has dominated the East lately, we'll take every win we can get.

BEAT WMU

[BleedOrange&Brown]

Great preview, I really think that this game will be determined by our defense. If we can find a way to get a stop or two at key times, it could give the opportunity to strike fast and extend a lead (hopefully) or keep it close. If they have success punching it down our throats they will do so and happily watch that clock run, keeping our offense off the field. We have seen this defense make a play when they need it, and the offense will do its thing if it can get into a rhythm. This will be a great test and measure as to where our team is really at.

[MarkL]

BTW, The East is now 2-8 against the West as Miami beat EMU last weekend. The way the West has dominated the East lately, we'll take every win we can get.

Thanks and nice catch! I wrote half of the preview before the weekend. I updated the post.