UT preview

[MarkL]

It is UT week! We come into this game as the MAC's top team but we will need to play our best game to maintain that title. Our conference-best team is hosting a dangerous squad and we should be in for one great game.

TL;DR version
UT is a solid team with an outstanding defensive line and a good running game. This team beat up on bad teams but has looked rather pedestrian in recent weeks against better competition. With a good effort, we can should this game.

The Series
- We have to win this game. That's all

Offense
- UT averages 34.9 ppg. In conference play, they average 38.5 but that is skewed positively by playing awful EMU and UMass defenses.
... - In the last two, they have scored 27 (loss to NIU) and 28 (close win over CMU).
- Senior transfer QB Phillip Ely is the QB. He is having a solid season, completing 174 / 318 (only 54.7%) for 2192 with 18/9 TD/Int.
... - I said solid, not great. His completion percentage is low and 2/1 TD to interception ratio is awfully low.
... - Ely is streaky. Sometimes he is hot and completes everything, and at other times he overthrows everybody except his wide receivers' imaginary 7'3" friends.
... - Two games ago against NIU, the defense harrassed him all day and he went 15/33 1 TD/2 Ints.
... - Last game he had a much better game going 23/39 2/0.
...... - With the way our defense has been playing recently, we may force him into more trouble than NIU did.
... - Ely missed nearly all of last year due to injury. I do not know if he has any chance of another year of eligibility.
- The UT offense revolves around the run game. They run it at you and sometimes up the pace some to physically wear you out with the run game.
... - Junior running back Kareem Hunt was set to be the star this year. He missed the first couple games due to suspension and has been hobbled with some injuries.
...... - Still, he is having a solid season with 602 on 114 carries (5.28 average) with 7 TDs.
...... - So often Hunt is tough to slow down late in the game and he puts teams away.
...... - He seems to come up with big carries when most needed.
...... - He is prototypical size at 6-0 225.
... - Sophomore Terry Swanson has stepped up as a big play back.
...... - Swanson has 749 on only 104 carries (7 even average) for 5 TDs.
...... - He has some big runs (88 against Kent, 90 against EMU, 58 against NIU) that skew his average high.
...... - As the above point would indicate, you must tackle him securely. If he slips away, he can change the course of a game.
...... - Swanson is a shorter guy at 5-10 202.
... - Sophomore Damion Jones-Moore is also having a nice season with 77 for 392 (5.09 average) and another 5 TDs.
...... - He carried the load against Arkansas for 68 yards with a 27 yard burst in there.
...... - He has done very little the last two games, making me wonder if he is a bit banged up.
...... - He is a small and shifty guy at 5-7 190.
- UT often has some good receivers and this year is no different.
... - Sophomore Cody Thompson is a big play guy with 553 yards and 4 TDs on only 27 receptions. 20.84 average!
...... - Thompson is a good sized receiver at 6-1 202.
...... - He has an 88 yarder vs EMU which certainly helps his average.
... - Senior Alonzo Russell is a big guy at 6-4 205. He can be a matchup nightmare.
...... - He has 28 receptions for 482 (17.21 average) and 4 TDs.
...... - His stats are helped with a 51 yarder against CMU, 43 against UMass, and 38 against Ball State.
... - Junior Corey Jones is the receptions leader with 45 for 426 (9.47 average) and 4 TDs.
...... - Jones is a similar height to Burbrink at 5-9 but a bit smaller at 165.
...... - He seems to always be open.
... A couple others to note ...
...... - Freshman Diontae Johnson is a quick guy at 5-11 175 with 10 for 168 and 2 TDs.
...... - Junior TE Michael Roberts is a guy you have to watch out for at 6-4 265. He has 16 for 152 and 4 TDs.
... - The receivers are good. Although our receivers would lilely look at the stats and say "aww, that's cute."
- UT's offensive line last year was all fifth year seniors. Naturally, one would expect a huge dropoff.
... - That didn't exactly happen. Head coach Matt Campbell was an offensive line coach before becoming HC and he has done a phenominal job with the new line.
... - If Campbell takes off for a new job next year, I would not be surprised if the offensive line coach is given a serious look for the HC position.
... - This line is big. They are all 6'4+ and 300+.
... - They have paved the way for a solid running game that powers the offense.
... - And between the line's play and Ely's escapability, they have only given up 2 sacks on the season.
... - Note: The line struggled to pass protect much of the night against NIU. NIU also happened to be the first defensive line worth a damn that UT has played.
...... - BG has the second defensive line worth a damn that UT has played. We may have a good game with how well our front seven has played recently.
- All around, this is a good offense. They have a good line and a good set of backs that take pressure off the passing game.
- The have the ability to play slow and clock-control, and they can go fast and physically wear out the defense.
- The offense certainly has some similarties to WMU. At least as good of a running game although I think WMU had a better passing game.

Defense
- UT gives up an average of 18.8 ppg. Part of that success is the offensive success and clock control.
- First, I'll start with the scary.
- Defensive line. They rotate defensive linemen a lot and spread out the stats. Check out some of these stats ...
... - Orion Jones - DT - 6-2 285. 10.5 TFLs, 5 sacks.
...... - As far as I know, there is no galaxy in his belt.
...... - And yes, that makes two weeks in a row with bad Men In Black jokes.
... - Allen Covington - DE - 6-2 275. 9 TFLs, 3.5 sacks.
... - Trent Voss - DE - 6-3 235. 7.5 TFLs, 1 sack.
... - Treyvon Hester - DT - 6-4 305. 5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks.
... - John Stepec - DE - 6-3 260. 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks.
... - Tre James - 6-1 250. 3 TFLs, 3 sacks.
... - Keenan Gibbs - DE - 6-3 265. 2 TFLs, 2 sacks.
... - Wow. This defensive line is disruptive and deep. We will need to adjust and get the ball away fast.
... - As a defensive coordinator, it is such a luxury to have a line like this. You can drop your linebackers and safeties into coverage or you can attack with your linebackers and make the pass rush even more effective.
- Now the not so scary. Any passing offense with a pulse can carve these guys up.
... - Arkansas was an awful team to start the season and still passed for over 400. No passing TDs ... because Arkansas was awful to start the season.
... - UMass passed for 4 TDs on this defense.
... - NIU put a freshman in for the second half after the starter went out with injury. In Graham's first actual gameplay, he went 9/12 for 132 and a crucial late TD. He led the game winning drive, completing key passes at just the right time.
... - Central Michigan ... yes, Central Michigan ... passed for almost 350.
... - As long as Matt Johnson has the time to pass, he could have a great day.
- The leading tackler is senior LB Chase Murdock with 63 (38 solo). He is all over the field.
- Senior safeties Rolan Milligan and Chaz Whittaker each have 2 interceptions.
- This defense has a great defensive line. They do not allow many points.
... - But good offenses have good days against these guys.
... - We are not just the best offense UT has faced, we are the best by a few miles.
... - With national TV and a wide open Heisman race, Matt Johnson has an opportunity to make a ton of noise.

Special Teams
- UT has a history of great punt and kick returners. It is unusual for them to have no PR or KR TDs yet this season. I hope the trend continues after this week.
- Corey Jones, their leading pass catcher, is the PR and averages almost 10 an attempt.
... - He has a 48 yard return vs Kent State and 24 vs both UMass and Ball State which prop up his average.
- The freshman WR Diontae Johnson is the KR, averaging 22.67 per.
- Nick Ellis is the punter, averaging almost 39 a boot. Which is a bit low but I expect he rarely is punting from his own 20 or 30.
- Kicker Jameson Vest has hit 14/21 FGs. He is a reliable kicker.

UT's season so far ...
- UT's game against Stony Brook never happened. It was cancelled due to weather.
- UT beat Arkansas despite being out-yarded by 200 and out-possessed by 15 minutes.
... - UT's defense played well in the red zone.
... - And Arkansas was awful to start the season. Like Iowa State bad.
- Speaking of Iowa State, UT beat Iowa State in OT thanks to Iowa State kicking like Iowa State.
... - ISU could have won it in regulation but missed a makeable FG.
- UT beat a bunch of bad teams.
... - Note, UT put up some great stats during this. Including holding a decent Arkansas State team to -14 yards rushing when you consider sack yardage.
- Then UT had to come back to beat UMass. UMass who we thoroughly dominated.
... - UMass fell apart at halftime or else they would have won.
- Northern Illinois beat UT for the 6th straight time.
... - Despite having their starting QB and top WR injured.
... - UT faced adversity for the first time all season and was exposed down the stretch, looking little like a nationally ranked team.
... - NIU came up with big drives late behind a freshman QB. And NIU is looking likely to be our opponent in the MAC title game.
- UT had a big lead vs CMU and then looked average the remainder of the game.
... - CMU took a long time to get moving but once they got things figured out, the offense moved pretty comfortably.
... - And CMU's defense eventually settled down.
... - CMU dug themselves in too big a hole (21-0) and could not seal the deal despite outplaying UT and outscoring them 23-7 after the awful start.

Which all leads me to ...
UT at Bowling Green
- We are currently favored by 9.5. Which is the best line I've seen for us in this rivalry in years.
- Temperatures should be nice but there could be some rain. Which would naturally favor the run-heavy UT but the rain has truthly little-impacted our pass offense this year.
... - Our offense was impacted more by a whistle in the crowd vs WMU than the rain.
- UT's offense which has put up some great stats against bad defenses has looked downright pedestrian against decent defenses.
... - Our defense has really come around this season. I expect to have a great defensive showing.
- UT's defensive line is scary. They get in the backfield and cause so much chaos.
... - Our offensive line must be ready.
... - And Matt Johnson has got to be aware and get rid of the ball quickly.
- I believe we'll be able to pass on these guys.
... - If we can run like we ran against WMU, we'll really be set.
- Last year, our team hit a wall in December. They didn't have that championship look in them.
... - This year, our team has it. They look hungry. They play hard. This is the team we all expected upon hiring Babers.
- I believe we should win. The stats favor us.
... - We played a decent-at-best game against WMU and still dominated. We will need to play better against UT.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - End the skid. Start our own win streak!
... - End UT's season. No conference championship for them and relegate them to a draw-of-the-hat MAC bowl game.
... - Hear as little of that dumb fight song and that stupid "we know three notes" song as possible
... - A Heisman-like performance for Matt Johnson
... - A great showing by our defense
... - Send the seniors out the right way - with a senior day win over our biggest rival!
... - No injuries. None for either team.

[transfer2BGSU]

Special Teams
- UT has a history of great punt and kick returners. It is unusual for them to have no PR or KR TDs yet this season. I hope the trend continues after this week.

Nice summary, but I am going to disagree with you on one point - I hope the trend continues THIS WEEK. I'm not concerned with what they do after this week.

[Falcon Commander]

... - Hear as little of that dumb fight song and that stupid "we know three notes" song as possible

Glad I'm not the only one Mark....I throw up in mouth every time

[Schadenfreude]

Thomas Schmeltz of the Sentinel-Tribune called the Rockets "pesky" today.

http://www.sent-trib.com/sports/bg-foot ... ea63f.html" target="_blank

"Pesky" really is the perfect word. You know what else is pesky?

-- Mosquitoes
-- Small furry animals
-- A little brother

Instead of all this TSUN stuff, maybe BGSU should list the school on future schedules as the Pesky Toledo Rockets

[Falcon Commander]

"You know what else is pesky?" (Like turdledo)

diarrhea




(Hope this was NOT taken as to Marks fine write up)

[Beaker]

Good writeup, as usual.

We've done a good job taking care of the ball all year. Hopefully, that doesn't change.

As long as we don't lose the turnover battle, I see this game coming down to if our front 7 can control their run game and if our O-line can consistently give MJ time to throw. If those things happen, we'll take this one.

[jpfalcon09]

Good writeup, as usual.

We've done a good job taking care of the ball all year. Hopefully, that doesn't change.

As long as we don't lose the turnover battle, I see this game coming down to if our front 7 can control their run game and if our O-line can consistently give MJ time to throw. If those things happen, we'll take this one.

I suspect we'll load the box and go man coverage and force Ely to beat us with his arm, similar to what happened in the second half of the WMU game.

[MarkL]

Ely has been awfully cold late these past two games. If we force him to be the offense, we'll hopefully be in good shape in the fourth.

[MarkL]

"You know what else is pesky?" (Like turdledo)

diarrhea

[Falcon Commander]

Hype Vid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvm5XTH ... lRD2qJu2mJ" target="_blank

[Falcon Fanatic]

... - Hear as little of that dumb fight song and that stupid "we know three notes" song as possible

Glad I'm not the only one Mark....I throw up in mouth every time

WHAT HE SAID!!!!

[Flipper]

We've had the better team the last two years ....there needs to be little doubt tonight. Dino wants impressive headlines for a shot at an access bowl birth and a big time gig like the U.

Things could get really ugly....bad blood, curse you for decades ugly.. as I don't see this team letting up too much if it's a blowout.

[Falcon Commander]

Play it again....

https://t.co/c53h4P28Am" target="_blank

[Falcon Commander]

1985
BG wins...again.

https://t.co/MBJC2hTvy9" target="_blank

[hammb]

We've had the better team the last two years ....there needs to be little doubt tonight. Dino wants impressive headlines for a shot at an access bowl birth and a big time gig like the U.

Things could get really ugly....bad blood, curse you for decades ugly.. as I don't see this team letting up too much if it's a blowout.

I hope the players are up for just that. I want Dino to put his foot on their throat and stomp stomp stomp. I don't care if we're up 70 with a minute to play I want Johnson throwing the ball to Lewis to make it 77.

I think this UT team is good enough to keep it a very close game though. And we have that UT fact that we seem to not be able to get over the hump on them when we've been the better team the past several years. I hope like hell we blow them out of the Doyt, but I don't see it happening.

If I were a betting man I'd probably take the Rockets and take the points. But I don't bet on football games because I'm so very bad at it...

But I'm with ya on what Dino wants Flip. I don't see any way he takes it easy on 'em if we are fortunate enough to be up big. And I like that.