UT preview
Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:22 pm
It is UT week! We come into this game as the MAC's top team but we will need to play our best game to maintain that title. Our conference-best team is hosting a dangerous squad and we should be in for one great game.
TL;DR version
UT is a solid team with an outstanding defensive line and a good running game. This team beat up on bad teams but has looked rather pedestrian in recent weeks against better competition. With a good effort, we can should this game.
The Series
- We have to win this game. That's all
Offense
- UT averages 34.9 ppg. In conference play, they average 38.5 but that is skewed positively by playing awful EMU and UMass defenses.
... - In the last two, they have scored 27 (loss to NIU) and 28 (close win over CMU).
- Senior transfer QB Phillip Ely is the QB. He is having a solid season, completing 174 / 318 (only 54.7%) for 2192 with 18/9 TD/Int.
... - I said solid, not great. His completion percentage is low and 2/1 TD to interception ratio is awfully low.
... - Ely is streaky. Sometimes he is hot and completes everything, and at other times he overthrows everybody except his wide receivers' imaginary 7'3" friends.
... - Two games ago against NIU, the defense harrassed him all day and he went 15/33 1 TD/2 Ints.
... - Last game he had a much better game going 23/39 2/0.
...... - With the way our defense has been playing recently, we may force him into more trouble than NIU did.
... - Ely missed nearly all of last year due to injury. I do not know if he has any chance of another year of eligibility.
- The UT offense revolves around the run game. They run it at you and sometimes up the pace some to physically wear you out with the run game.
... - Junior running back Kareem Hunt was set to be the star this year. He missed the first couple games due to suspension and has been hobbled with some injuries.
...... - Still, he is having a solid season with 602 on 114 carries (5.28 average) with 7 TDs.
...... - So often Hunt is tough to slow down late in the game and he puts teams away.
...... - He seems to come up with big carries when most needed.
...... - He is prototypical size at 6-0 225.
... - Sophomore Terry Swanson has stepped up as a big play back.
...... - Swanson has 749 on only 104 carries (7 even average) for 5 TDs.
...... - He has some big runs (88 against Kent, 90 against EMU, 58 against NIU) that skew his average high.
...... - As the above point would indicate, you must tackle him securely. If he slips away, he can change the course of a game.
...... - Swanson is a shorter guy at 5-10 202.
... - Sophomore Damion Jones-Moore is also having a nice season with 77 for 392 (5.09 average) and another 5 TDs.
...... - He carried the load against Arkansas for 68 yards with a 27 yard burst in there.
...... - He has done very little the last two games, making me wonder if he is a bit banged up.
...... - He is a small and shifty guy at 5-7 190.
- UT often has some good receivers and this year is no different.
... - Sophomore Cody Thompson is a big play guy with 553 yards and 4 TDs on only 27 receptions. 20.84 average!
...... - Thompson is a good sized receiver at 6-1 202.
...... - He has an 88 yarder vs EMU which certainly helps his average.
... - Senior Alonzo Russell is a big guy at 6-4 205. He can be a matchup nightmare.
...... - He has 28 receptions for 482 (17.21 average) and 4 TDs.
...... - His stats are helped with a 51 yarder against CMU, 43 against UMass, and 38 against Ball State.
... - Junior Corey Jones is the receptions leader with 45 for 426 (9.47 average) and 4 TDs.
...... - Jones is a similar height to Burbrink at 5-9 but a bit smaller at 165.
...... - He seems to always be open.
... A couple others to note ...
...... - Freshman Diontae Johnson is a quick guy at 5-11 175 with 10 for 168 and 2 TDs.
...... - Junior TE Michael Roberts is a guy you have to watch out for at 6-4 265. He has 16 for 152 and 4 TDs.
... - The receivers are good. Although our receivers would lilely look at the stats and say "aww, that's cute."
- UT's offensive line last year was all fifth year seniors. Naturally, one would expect a huge dropoff.
... - That didn't exactly happen. Head coach Matt Campbell was an offensive line coach before becoming HC and he has done a phenominal job with the new line.
... - If Campbell takes off for a new job next year, I would not be surprised if the offensive line coach is given a serious look for the HC position.
... - This line is big. They are all 6'4+ and 300+.
... - They have paved the way for a solid running game that powers the offense.
... - And between the line's play and Ely's escapability, they have only given up 2 sacks on the season.
... - Note: The line struggled to pass protect much of the night against NIU. NIU also happened to be the first defensive line worth a damn that UT has played.
...... - BG has the second defensive line worth a damn that UT has played. We may have a good game with how well our front seven has played recently.
- All around, this is a good offense. They have a good line and a good set of backs that take pressure off the passing game.
- The have the ability to play slow and clock-control, and they can go fast and physically wear out the defense.
- The offense certainly has some similarties to WMU. At least as good of a running game although I think WMU had a better passing game.
Defense
- UT gives up an average of 18.8 ppg. Part of that success is the offensive success and clock control.
- First, I'll start with the scary.
- Defensive line. They rotate defensive linemen a lot and spread out the stats. Check out some of these stats ...
... - Orion Jones - DT - 6-2 285. 10.5 TFLs, 5 sacks.
...... - As far as I know, there is no galaxy in his belt.
...... - And yes, that makes two weeks in a row with bad Men In Black jokes.
... - Allen Covington - DE - 6-2 275. 9 TFLs, 3.5 sacks.
... - Trent Voss - DE - 6-3 235. 7.5 TFLs, 1 sack.
... - Treyvon Hester - DT - 6-4 305. 5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks.
... - John Stepec - DE - 6-3 260. 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks.
... - Tre James - 6-1 250. 3 TFLs, 3 sacks.
... - Keenan Gibbs - DE - 6-3 265. 2 TFLs, 2 sacks.
... - Wow. This defensive line is disruptive and deep. We will need to adjust and get the ball away fast.
... - As a defensive coordinator, it is such a luxury to have a line like this. You can drop your linebackers and safeties into coverage or you can attack with your linebackers and make the pass rush even more effective.
- Now the not so scary. Any passing offense with a pulse can carve these guys up.
... - Arkansas was an awful team to start the season and still passed for over 400. No passing TDs ... because Arkansas was awful to start the season.
... - UMass passed for 4 TDs on this defense.
... - NIU put a freshman in for the second half after the starter went out with injury. In Graham's first actual gameplay, he went 9/12 for 132 and a crucial late TD. He led the game winning drive, completing key passes at just the right time.
... - Central Michigan ... yes, Central Michigan ... passed for almost 350.
... - As long as Matt Johnson has the time to pass, he could have a great day.
- The leading tackler is senior LB Chase Murdock with 63 (38 solo). He is all over the field.
- Senior safeties Rolan Milligan and Chaz Whittaker each have 2 interceptions.
- This defense has a great defensive line. They do not allow many points.
... - But good offenses have good days against these guys.
... - We are not just the best offense UT has faced, we are the best by a few miles.
... - With national TV and a wide open Heisman race, Matt Johnson has an opportunity to make a ton of noise.
Special Teams
- UT has a history of great punt and kick returners. It is unusual for them to have no PR or KR TDs yet this season. I hope the trend continues after this week.
- Corey Jones, their leading pass catcher, is the PR and averages almost 10 an attempt.
... - He has a 48 yard return vs Kent State and 24 vs both UMass and Ball State which prop up his average.
- The freshman WR Diontae Johnson is the KR, averaging 22.67 per.
- Nick Ellis is the punter, averaging almost 39 a boot. Which is a bit low but I expect he rarely is punting from his own 20 or 30.
- Kicker Jameson Vest has hit 14/21 FGs. He is a reliable kicker.
UT's season so far ...
- UT's game against Stony Brook never happened. It was cancelled due to weather.
- UT beat Arkansas despite being out-yarded by 200 and out-possessed by 15 minutes.
... - UT's defense played well in the red zone.
... - And Arkansas was awful to start the season. Like Iowa State bad.
- Speaking of Iowa State, UT beat Iowa State in OT thanks to Iowa State kicking like Iowa State.
... - ISU could have won it in regulation but missed a makeable FG.
- UT beat a bunch of bad teams.
... - Note, UT put up some great stats during this. Including holding a decent Arkansas State team to -14 yards rushing when you consider sack yardage.
- Then UT had to come back to beat UMass. UMass who we thoroughly dominated.
... - UMass fell apart at halftime or else they would have won.
- Northern Illinois beat UT for the 6th straight time.
... - Despite having their starting QB and top WR injured.
... - UT faced adversity for the first time all season and was exposed down the stretch, looking little like a nationally ranked team.
... - NIU came up with big drives late behind a freshman QB. And NIU is looking likely to be our opponent in the MAC title game.
- UT had a big lead vs CMU and then looked average the remainder of the game.
... - CMU took a long time to get moving but once they got things figured out, the offense moved pretty comfortably.
... - And CMU's defense eventually settled down.
... - CMU dug themselves in too big a hole (21-0) and could not seal the deal despite outplaying UT and outscoring them 23-7 after the awful start.
Which all leads me to ...
UT at Bowling Green
- We are currently favored by 9.5. Which is the best line I've seen for us in this rivalry in years.
- Temperatures should be nice but there could be some rain. Which would naturally favor the run-heavy UT but the rain has truthly little-impacted our pass offense this year.
... - Our offense was impacted more by a whistle in the crowd vs WMU than the rain.
- UT's offense which has put up some great stats against bad defenses has looked downright pedestrian against decent defenses.
... - Our defense has really come around this season. I expect to have a great defensive showing.
- UT's defensive line is scary. They get in the backfield and cause so much chaos.
... - Our offensive line must be ready.
... - And Matt Johnson has got to be aware and get rid of the ball quickly.
- I believe we'll be able to pass on these guys.
... - If we can run like we ran against WMU, we'll really be set.
- Last year, our team hit a wall in December. They didn't have that championship look in them.
... - This year, our team has it. They look hungry. They play hard. This is the team we all expected upon hiring Babers.
- I believe we should win. The stats favor us.
... - We played a decent-at-best game against WMU and still dominated. We will need to play better against UT.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - End the skid. Start our own win streak!
... - End UT's season. No conference championship for them and relegate them to a draw-of-the-hat MAC bowl game.
... - Hear as little of that dumb fight song and that stupid "we know three notes" song as possible
... - A Heisman-like performance for Matt Johnson
... - A great showing by our defense
... - Send the seniors out the right way - with a senior day win over our biggest rival!
... - No injuries. None for either team.
TL;DR version
UT is a solid team with an outstanding defensive line and a good running game. This team beat up on bad teams but has looked rather pedestrian in recent weeks against better competition. With a good effort, we can should this game.
The Series
- We have to win this game. That's all
Offense
- UT averages 34.9 ppg. In conference play, they average 38.5 but that is skewed positively by playing awful EMU and UMass defenses.
... - In the last two, they have scored 27 (loss to NIU) and 28 (close win over CMU).
- Senior transfer QB Phillip Ely is the QB. He is having a solid season, completing 174 / 318 (only 54.7%) for 2192 with 18/9 TD/Int.
... - I said solid, not great. His completion percentage is low and 2/1 TD to interception ratio is awfully low.
... - Ely is streaky. Sometimes he is hot and completes everything, and at other times he overthrows everybody except his wide receivers' imaginary 7'3" friends.
... - Two games ago against NIU, the defense harrassed him all day and he went 15/33 1 TD/2 Ints.
... - Last game he had a much better game going 23/39 2/0.
...... - With the way our defense has been playing recently, we may force him into more trouble than NIU did.
... - Ely missed nearly all of last year due to injury. I do not know if he has any chance of another year of eligibility.
- The UT offense revolves around the run game. They run it at you and sometimes up the pace some to physically wear you out with the run game.
... - Junior running back Kareem Hunt was set to be the star this year. He missed the first couple games due to suspension and has been hobbled with some injuries.
...... - Still, he is having a solid season with 602 on 114 carries (5.28 average) with 7 TDs.
...... - So often Hunt is tough to slow down late in the game and he puts teams away.
...... - He seems to come up with big carries when most needed.
...... - He is prototypical size at 6-0 225.
... - Sophomore Terry Swanson has stepped up as a big play back.
...... - Swanson has 749 on only 104 carries (7 even average) for 5 TDs.
...... - He has some big runs (88 against Kent, 90 against EMU, 58 against NIU) that skew his average high.
...... - As the above point would indicate, you must tackle him securely. If he slips away, he can change the course of a game.
...... - Swanson is a shorter guy at 5-10 202.
... - Sophomore Damion Jones-Moore is also having a nice season with 77 for 392 (5.09 average) and another 5 TDs.
...... - He carried the load against Arkansas for 68 yards with a 27 yard burst in there.
...... - He has done very little the last two games, making me wonder if he is a bit banged up.
...... - He is a small and shifty guy at 5-7 190.
- UT often has some good receivers and this year is no different.
... - Sophomore Cody Thompson is a big play guy with 553 yards and 4 TDs on only 27 receptions. 20.84 average!
...... - Thompson is a good sized receiver at 6-1 202.
...... - He has an 88 yarder vs EMU which certainly helps his average.
... - Senior Alonzo Russell is a big guy at 6-4 205. He can be a matchup nightmare.
...... - He has 28 receptions for 482 (17.21 average) and 4 TDs.
...... - His stats are helped with a 51 yarder against CMU, 43 against UMass, and 38 against Ball State.
... - Junior Corey Jones is the receptions leader with 45 for 426 (9.47 average) and 4 TDs.
...... - Jones is a similar height to Burbrink at 5-9 but a bit smaller at 165.
...... - He seems to always be open.
... A couple others to note ...
...... - Freshman Diontae Johnson is a quick guy at 5-11 175 with 10 for 168 and 2 TDs.
...... - Junior TE Michael Roberts is a guy you have to watch out for at 6-4 265. He has 16 for 152 and 4 TDs.
... - The receivers are good. Although our receivers would lilely look at the stats and say "aww, that's cute."
- UT's offensive line last year was all fifth year seniors. Naturally, one would expect a huge dropoff.
... - That didn't exactly happen. Head coach Matt Campbell was an offensive line coach before becoming HC and he has done a phenominal job with the new line.
... - If Campbell takes off for a new job next year, I would not be surprised if the offensive line coach is given a serious look for the HC position.
... - This line is big. They are all 6'4+ and 300+.
... - They have paved the way for a solid running game that powers the offense.
... - And between the line's play and Ely's escapability, they have only given up 2 sacks on the season.
... - Note: The line struggled to pass protect much of the night against NIU. NIU also happened to be the first defensive line worth a damn that UT has played.
...... - BG has the second defensive line worth a damn that UT has played. We may have a good game with how well our front seven has played recently.
- All around, this is a good offense. They have a good line and a good set of backs that take pressure off the passing game.
- The have the ability to play slow and clock-control, and they can go fast and physically wear out the defense.
- The offense certainly has some similarties to WMU. At least as good of a running game although I think WMU had a better passing game.
Defense
- UT gives up an average of 18.8 ppg. Part of that success is the offensive success and clock control.
- First, I'll start with the scary.
- Defensive line. They rotate defensive linemen a lot and spread out the stats. Check out some of these stats ...
... - Orion Jones - DT - 6-2 285. 10.5 TFLs, 5 sacks.
...... - As far as I know, there is no galaxy in his belt.
...... - And yes, that makes two weeks in a row with bad Men In Black jokes.
... - Allen Covington - DE - 6-2 275. 9 TFLs, 3.5 sacks.
... - Trent Voss - DE - 6-3 235. 7.5 TFLs, 1 sack.
... - Treyvon Hester - DT - 6-4 305. 5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks.
... - John Stepec - DE - 6-3 260. 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks.
... - Tre James - 6-1 250. 3 TFLs, 3 sacks.
... - Keenan Gibbs - DE - 6-3 265. 2 TFLs, 2 sacks.
... - Wow. This defensive line is disruptive and deep. We will need to adjust and get the ball away fast.
... - As a defensive coordinator, it is such a luxury to have a line like this. You can drop your linebackers and safeties into coverage or you can attack with your linebackers and make the pass rush even more effective.
- Now the not so scary. Any passing offense with a pulse can carve these guys up.
... - Arkansas was an awful team to start the season and still passed for over 400. No passing TDs ... because Arkansas was awful to start the season.
... - UMass passed for 4 TDs on this defense.
... - NIU put a freshman in for the second half after the starter went out with injury. In Graham's first actual gameplay, he went 9/12 for 132 and a crucial late TD. He led the game winning drive, completing key passes at just the right time.
... - Central Michigan ... yes, Central Michigan ... passed for almost 350.
... - As long as Matt Johnson has the time to pass, he could have a great day.
- The leading tackler is senior LB Chase Murdock with 63 (38 solo). He is all over the field.
- Senior safeties Rolan Milligan and Chaz Whittaker each have 2 interceptions.
- This defense has a great defensive line. They do not allow many points.
... - But good offenses have good days against these guys.
... - We are not just the best offense UT has faced, we are the best by a few miles.
... - With national TV and a wide open Heisman race, Matt Johnson has an opportunity to make a ton of noise.
Special Teams
- UT has a history of great punt and kick returners. It is unusual for them to have no PR or KR TDs yet this season. I hope the trend continues after this week.
- Corey Jones, their leading pass catcher, is the PR and averages almost 10 an attempt.
... - He has a 48 yard return vs Kent State and 24 vs both UMass and Ball State which prop up his average.
- The freshman WR Diontae Johnson is the KR, averaging 22.67 per.
- Nick Ellis is the punter, averaging almost 39 a boot. Which is a bit low but I expect he rarely is punting from his own 20 or 30.
- Kicker Jameson Vest has hit 14/21 FGs. He is a reliable kicker.
UT's season so far ...
- UT's game against Stony Brook never happened. It was cancelled due to weather.
- UT beat Arkansas despite being out-yarded by 200 and out-possessed by 15 minutes.
... - UT's defense played well in the red zone.
... - And Arkansas was awful to start the season. Like Iowa State bad.
- Speaking of Iowa State, UT beat Iowa State in OT thanks to Iowa State kicking like Iowa State.
... - ISU could have won it in regulation but missed a makeable FG.
- UT beat a bunch of bad teams.
... - Note, UT put up some great stats during this. Including holding a decent Arkansas State team to -14 yards rushing when you consider sack yardage.
- Then UT had to come back to beat UMass. UMass who we thoroughly dominated.
... - UMass fell apart at halftime or else they would have won.
- Northern Illinois beat UT for the 6th straight time.
... - Despite having their starting QB and top WR injured.
... - UT faced adversity for the first time all season and was exposed down the stretch, looking little like a nationally ranked team.
... - NIU came up with big drives late behind a freshman QB. And NIU is looking likely to be our opponent in the MAC title game.
- UT had a big lead vs CMU and then looked average the remainder of the game.
... - CMU took a long time to get moving but once they got things figured out, the offense moved pretty comfortably.
... - And CMU's defense eventually settled down.
... - CMU dug themselves in too big a hole (21-0) and could not seal the deal despite outplaying UT and outscoring them 23-7 after the awful start.
Which all leads me to ...
UT at Bowling Green
- We are currently favored by 9.5. Which is the best line I've seen for us in this rivalry in years.
- Temperatures should be nice but there could be some rain. Which would naturally favor the run-heavy UT but the rain has truthly little-impacted our pass offense this year.
... - Our offense was impacted more by a whistle in the crowd vs WMU than the rain.
- UT's offense which has put up some great stats against bad defenses has looked downright pedestrian against decent defenses.
... - Our defense has really come around this season. I expect to have a great defensive showing.
- UT's defensive line is scary. They get in the backfield and cause so much chaos.
... - Our offensive line must be ready.
... - And Matt Johnson has got to be aware and get rid of the ball quickly.
- I believe we'll be able to pass on these guys.
... - If we can run like we ran against WMU, we'll really be set.
- Last year, our team hit a wall in December. They didn't have that championship look in them.
... - This year, our team has it. They look hungry. They play hard. This is the team we all expected upon hiring Babers.
- I believe we should win. The stats favor us.
... - We played a decent-at-best game against WMU and still dominated. We will need to play better against UT.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - End the skid. Start our own win streak!
... - End UT's season. No conference championship for them and relegate them to a draw-of-the-hat MAC bowl game.
... - Hear as little of that dumb fight song and that stupid "we know three notes" song as possible
... - A Heisman-like performance for Matt Johnson
... - A great showing by our defense
... - Send the seniors out the right way - with a senior day win over our biggest rival!
... - No injuries. None for either team.
