Northern Illinois preview
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:48 pm
Finally, the championship is here, and it is exactly the game it was meant to be: the west's best program against the east's best program.
TL;DR version
Northern Illinois has some key injuries, notably at QB, but NIU reloads better than anybody in this conference. I do not believe a QB change will hurt them too much. NIU has a solid running game which puts teams away and a corner who can disrupt good offenses. This is a game we can win if we play well but if we play like we did against UT, we could be in trouble.
The Series
- Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have a history of ruining each other's seasons. 2002, 2003, and 2013 all come to mind.
- This will be the third straight matchup of these two programs, and I would not be surprised if next year it is the same two.
Now I'm going to change things up a bit here format-wise. If you all prefer this format, let me know and I'll do future previews this style.
Passing Offense vs Northern Illinois
- We average 387.8 passing yards per game, which comfortably leads the conference. The pass offense has been a bit slower in recent weeks, partly due to self-inflicted wounds, partly due to stronger competition, partly due to weather.
- Northern Illinois gives up on average 233.25 passing yards per game. Which is actually about average in the conference. Better pass defenses in terms of yards ...
... - Buffalo - 227.3 (we passed for 324)
... - WMU 224.75 (we passed for 269)
... - Ohio 216.6 (we passed for 365)
... - Kent 206.17 (we passed for 430)
... - EMU 202.75 (gives up 300+ per game rushing)
... - CMU 189.7 (2nd best total defense behind Akron who has conference's best defense and allows on average <100 on the ground)
- So this pass defense is average. Let's take a deep dive into the stats ....
- NIU has 23 sacks on the year against 441 attempts. They come up with a sack on 5.215% of pass attempts, which is just about the average of all MAC teams (5.443%).
- NIU's D line is aggressive getting into the backfield. Here's your top sackers to keep an eye one ...
... - DE Perez Ford, Senior. 6-0 227 - 5 sacks
... - DT Ben Compton, Senior, 6-4 278 - 3 sacks
... - DE Ladell Fleming, Junior, 6-0 236 - 2 sacks
... - DE Cameron Clinton-Earl, Senior, 6-1 258 - 2 sacks
... - OLB Bobby Jones IV, Sophomore, 6-0 222 - 2 sacks
... - OLB Renard Cheren, Freshman, 6-0 224 - 1.5 sacks
... - When your defensive line is so good at disrupting the backfield, you can drop your linebackers into pass coverage. Any defensive coordinator loves this scenario.
- We give up a sack on an 6.31% of pass attempts, which is above average.
- Now here's one thing definitely not average about NIU. They have 19 interceptions, which leads the conference.
... - Do you know who has the second most interceptions? Bowling Green with 17.
- So Matt Johnson will have to be careful passing, especially against their top corner. Here's your interception leaders ...
... - CB Shawun Lurry, Sophomore, 5-8 178. 8 interceptions (!!)
... - SS Brandon Mayes, Sophomore, 5-11 193, 2 interceptions
... - FS Marlon Moore, Senior, 5-9 197, 2 interceptions
- Yes, you read that right. A corner ... not a safety ... has 8 interceptions. Video game stats. I expect he will be going up against Roger Lewis, but with how Deiter has come on recently NIU may put Lurry on Deiter and let Lewis get open.
... - Lurry had 2 interceptions vs Ohio State. Although he only has 1 in the last 5 games.
- The NIU defense has given up 20 TDs through the air, which is about average. But 20 TDs / 19 interceptions is healthy.
- We have 42 passing TDs. Easily the most productive passing offense NIU has seen all year.
- This pass defense is average on all marks except for one great corner. We have played other defenses with stars in the secondary and Matt has been effective at evenly distributing the ball.
- We have the best passing offense Northern Illinois has seen this year and it is not close.
- I think we'll be successful through the air. If NIU cannot stop our pass offense, we are in good shape.
Rushing Offense vs Northern Illinois
- We run for 178.2 yards per game, which is 5th best in the conference. As the pass offense has slowed down in recent weeks, the rush offense has become more successful.
- Northern Illinois gives up on average 158.6 yards per game, which is 6th best in the conference.
- Northern Illinois gives up an average of 3.78 yards per carry, which is one of the better in the conference.
... - We run for 4.65 per carry, which is third in the conference.
- Northern Illinois has only given up 10 rushing TDs, which is the best in the conference.
... - Just for fun, poor EMU has given up 44 rushing TDs and they give up almost 6.5 a carry and 300+ a game!
- Here's your top four tacklers ...
... - MLB Boomer Mays, Senior, 6-0 244. 59 solo tackles, 92 total. He is big for a LB and is all over the field. Very active in stopping the run game.
... - FS Marlon Moore, Senior, 5-9 197, 59 solo tackles, 88 total. He plays clean-up for the run game.
... - SS Brandon Mayes, 5-11 193, 55 solo tackles, 76 total.
... - OLB Sean Folliard, Junior, 6-2 231. 42 solo tackles, 69 total.
- And here are you top TFL ...
... - OLB Sean Folliard, Junior, 6-2 231, 8.5 TFLs.
... - DE Perez Ford, Senior, 6-0 227, 6.5 TFLs.
... - DE Cameron Clinton-Earl, 6-1 258, 6 TFLs.
- NIU has recovered 6 fumbles on the season and we have lost 5 fumbles. I would be surprised if we have ball security problems.
- Against Ohio State, Ezekiel Elliott averaged almost 5 a carry but his long was only 13. NIU kept him from breaking the game open on the ground and kept him out of the end zone.
- Central Michigan only averaged 2.4 per carry and under 100 on the ground but they still won largely due to NIU turning it over. NIU lost to CMU not because of the defense.
- UT carved up NIU for almost 300 on the ground but NIU won thanks to some late game offense.
- UB had one nice rush for nearly 50. Beyond that, they did nothing on the ground.
- NIU pretty well bottled up the WMU run offense.
- In the last game, Ohio ran for over 200 and picked up key first downs with a zone-read run game.
- This is a good run defense, but their last showing against Ohio has got to leave them feeling sour.
- If we can both run and pass well, NIU is in big trouble.
Passing defense vs Northern Illinois
- Note: last I heard is Ryan Graham is day to day, which is often code for will not play ... or will not reveal to opposing coach. If I were a betting man, I'd bet we see Fielder, not Graham, given the way Graham was hurt against Ohio. If we get a definite update, I might revise this section some.
- The injury to Drew Hare really hurt NIU. We all remember how well Drew Hare played vs us in the title game last year. So many times NIU was at 3rd and around 10 and Hare found a receiver just at the first down marker. He also was a big part of the run game and a big threat on the zone read.
- Hare was injured vs UT. But Ryan Graham stepped up and has done fine since. I have to give props to the young guy. In his limited time as the starter, he went 48 / 81 (59.3) for 6 TDs and 3 interceptions.
... - Obviously not the best stats but he did come up with some great play late against UT and he beat WMU. You can't argue with the results.
- But against Ohio, Graham got hurt. I read that Graham is day to day, which to me sounds like he is unlikely to play in the title game. But I'll cover both him and the young freshman.
... - Though I do not expect Graham to play, I am cheering for him. I'd rather see the guy who came up with the late wins get the opportunity to play for it all.
- So NIU will likely be playing a mostly unknown QB. True freshman Tommy Fiedler will get his first start unless Graham is ready to go.
- Fielder came in late against OU and honestly looked pretty good, going 9 / 17 with a TD along with some nice scrambles.
... - But his best drive was against OU playing the prevent. When OU was in their normal defense, he looked like a true freshman.
- Note: Fielder is a lefty. I'm not sure if we've played a left-handed QB yet this year.
- Considering the QB situation, going over average passing yards per game won't mean much. But I will highlight NIU's receivers. If Fielder can get the ball out, NIU has some good receivers.
... - Junior Kenny Golladay leads the way with 70 for 1107 and 10 TDs. He is a tall guy at 6-4 200. He is a matchup nightmare in the end zone.
... - He is unlikely to play against us due to injury but I have to give credit to Tommylee Lewis. He is a senior that was injured vs UT - Achilles tendon - and was initially declared out for the season but was listed as day-to-day leading up to the championship game. Hurts to see a senior go down that way. Lewis was such a big part of the offense for years. On the season, Lewis has 33 for 387 and 3 TDs.
... - Junior Aregeros Turner has stepped up in a big way for Tommylee Lewis. He has 37 for 335 and a TD. He is a junior and a quick guy at 5-11 178.
... - Senior Juwan Brescacin is a big play threat with 19 for 273 (14.37 average) and a TD.
... - An end zone threat is sophmore TE Shane Wimann. He is a big guy at 6-4 254. He has only 11 catches for only 98 yards but 4 TDs.
- On the season, NIU has given up 23 sacks on 355 pass attempts, or they give up sacks on 6.479% of pass plays. That is above average.
- They have come up with 25 sacks on 456 pass attempts, or a sack on 5.482% of pass plays. That is average for the conference.
- Now here's the big thing to know about the NIU offense. They rely on the run. They are not a big passing offense. And that is part of why I'm not so sure Fielder in the backfield will be much different than Graham, although neither of them bring what Hare brought.
- Northern Illinois is the conference's best run and deepest program. When one guy goes down, another steps up and NIU continues to roll. Yes, depth hurt them badly against Ohio, but I fully expect the young freshman will be ready.
- Obviously there are some limitations a coaching staff will keep in mind with a true freshman QB. He might not have the full playbook at his disposal. But the NIU coaches will put Fielder in a position to succeed. He will be ready and I expect the NIU offense will be effective.
Rushing defense vs Northern Illinois
- NIU runs. And they run. And they run some more. It doesn't matter if the head coach is Jerry Kill or Rod Carey. It doesn't matter who is in at QB or who is on the running back depth chart.
- Given the QB health situation and the likely reliance upon a third string true freshman QB, I would not expect too many QB runs. Which might be nice because Drew Hare chewed us up last year with the zone read. I have no idea who the fourth stringer is.
- This year, NIU is averaging 213.3 yards per game, which leads the conference. They use the run to wear out defenses.
- We give up an average of 166.2 yards per game, which is the 7th best. We do well against the Akrons and Kents and UMasses, but the better running offenses have been successful against us.
- NIU has 31 rushing TDs which leads the conference.
... - Second most rushing TDs? Bowling Green with 30.
- The running game all revolves around their big junior RB, Joel Bouagnon. He has 261 carries for 1213 (4.65 average) and 18 TDs.
... - He came up with 100 yards and at least a TD in just about all games this season.
... - But his worst game of the season by far was last week against OU. The Bobcats held him to 37 on 16 and no TDs. No surprise, his worst game of the season is NIU's worst game of the season.
- Bouagnon's relief is a quick guy who is having a great season. Sophomore RB Jordan Huff has 76 carries for 617 (8.12 average !) for 8 TDs. He is shorter but big and fast at 5-11 218.
... - Huff has some big runs which have propped his average up nicely. He has a 46 vs Murray State, 53 vs EMU, and 87 vs WMU. Plus a couple other carries in the 20s.
... - He is a faster guy than Bouagnon. Bouagnon will physically wear out the defense, then Huff hits you with a long run. One missed tackle and this guy can be dancing in the end zone.
- NIU has given up 12 fumbles on the season. We have only recovered 5 fumbles all year.
- The way to beat NIU this year is the same way you beat them every year. Stuff the run. Easier said than done.
- Now I do believe that NIU will rely upon the backs more than normal in order to keep the QB from having to make big passes or carry the ball.
- In general, NIU's strength is the offensive line. This year, there are 2 juniors, 2 seniors, and a freshman on the line. And the center is a senior.
... - This is a veteran line, as always. And a big line, as always.
... - The line paved the way for late wins over WMU and UT. They allowed some nice runs and kept the QBs standing.
... - But against OU, the line only paved the way for 73 rushing yards on 38 attempts (1.9 average).
... - If the line does not play well against us, we are in good shape. If they play well, we are in for a good game.
- This is as good of a running game as we have seen all year. We have to get some stops or else NIU will set the pace of the game, find themselves with a lead, and keep us in the rear view mirror all day. If we lose to NIU, it is most likely because the run game was successful and built a multiple possession lead for NIU.
Special Teams vs Northern Illinois
- Our special teams returns have been problematic much of this season and they had a bad outing vs Ball State. They'll need to tighten up because NIU has good STs.
- The lead PR is junior WR Chad Beebe. He has no TDs but some long returns and a healthy average of 8.54.
- The lead KR is junior WR Aregeros Turner. He has a KR TD and averages 25.62 per return.
- Punter Jacob Ambrose has a low average of only 37.27. But I think part of the average is NIU generally has good field position. More often than not, Ambrose is put in the position of trying to put the ball within the 20 instead of just booming it as far as possible.
- Kicker Christian Hagan is having a great season. He is 14 / 18. If NIU gets past the 40, I expect them to score.
NIU's regular season
NIU is 8-4 (6-2)
- NIU came up with a great offensive day in a win against UNLV. They were down by 14 early but dominated from there.
- NIU as expected destroyed Murray State.
- In Columbus, NIU played well against Ohio State. Their defense came up well, especially against the pass. The offense just could not pass well which led to the coaches getting conservative in the fourth in a winnable game. NIU was leading for some of the game but lost by 7.
- NIU did little offensively at Boston College but still nearly won. Their run defense got carved up but BC does that to everybody.
- Against CMU, NIU made key mistakes, including fumbles and ending drives on 4th down. But just like last year, NIU lost to CMU but rallied from there.
- NIU beat BSU, MU, and EMU as expected.
- NIU beat UT for the 6th straight time. That was after losing QB Drew Hare and WR Tommylee Lewis. Young QB Graham came up big late in the win.
- With Graham in, NIU beat UB and WMU but did not really dominate either.
- NIU was physically beat by Ohio. Graham got injured while trying to dig NIU out of a big hole and the even younger QB Fielder came in and led a late drive against a prevent defense but NIU could not recover on onside kick. NIU did little all day on offense.
Which all leads me to ...
Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois
- As of now, we are 9 point favorites. If Ryan Graham can go, I bet the line will change quite a bit.
- The game is in a dome. Barring one incredible snowstorm, weather will not be an impact.
- NIU limps into this game. Physically, they are limping with key injuries. But mentally, they are limping. They won the west, but that was thanks to WMU beating UT. NIU had the opportunity to seal the deal but played a complete dud of a game to Ohio.
- Last year, we limped into the title game while NIU came storming in. And NIU dominated.
- This year, we are the hot team. We have the conference's best record, the premiere win (blowout of Maryland), the premier players (Johnson and Lewis), and the hot head coach.
... - May we see the tables flipped this year under the opposite circumstances?
- The MAC west has been far better than the east this year but not to the level of last year. And we are 2-1 against the west, including beating WMU far worse than NIU. I don't believe the stats deceive us like they did last year when comparing these two teams.
- To win this game, we will have to play well on defense. If we end up in a shootout, I do not like our chances because NIU can clock control with the run. NIU has a true freshman QB and we know little about him. We also do not know how NIU will handle a young QB. Will they give him the whole offense? Will they let him run like Drew Hare? Will they limit him to mostly handoff duty and the occasional pass? Will he come up clutch or will he get rattled?
- Our offense could come up nicely. NIU is a mostly average defense with some bright points this season, like playing tough against Ohio State. They have seen nothing like our offense.
- I believe we also have to come up with an early lead. NIU's run offense can chew up the clock and keep you playing comeback all day.
- Last year, QB Hare came up with 3rd down conversions all game long which extended drives, kept our offense off the field, and helped them pull away early in the third. This year, if we can prevent those 3rd downs, it will help us come up with an early lead.
... - As I've said all year, we didn't have a defensive coordinator last year, we had a WR coach impersonating a DC. This defense is night and day better than last year.
- Also last year, our offense hit a wall with a young QB and a system that just wasn't working. Now we have one of the nation's best QBs and a system that is hitting on all cylinders.
- I expect we should win. But at the same time, Northern Illinois is the best program in the conference and they reload year after year. That is why I intentionally in this preview have undervalued the injuries and why I feel starting the line favoring us by 9 is unfair to NIU's program.
... - I know the feeling on the board is we should just walk all over NIU because of the injuries. I do not agree.
... - I believe there will certainly be a dropoff especially at the QB position but I do not believe it will be a significant dropoff.
- I just need to point out. There is a reason these two teams are in the championship game. You've got the best pass offense, the best rush offense, the two teams with the most rushing TDs, and the two teams with the most interceptions. These are the conference's best overall two teams.
- Our team better prep well. They need to come in focused but not wound up too tightly. And NIU needs to shake off last game because if they don't, they are in trouble.
- And I hope Matt Johnson has the game of his life. He had a career game two years ago and it would only be fitting for him to have the same again this year.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - A MAC championship!
... - A great last MAC game for our seniors
... - A complete fliparound from last season's championship game
... - A great showing by our defense
... - No injuries. None for either team. NIU especially has enough of those as is.
That's all for the MAC season! I'm looking forward to seeing you all at The Old Shillelagh for some Guinness. I hope you all have enjoyed reading these previews. I've still got one more this year (bowl game against TBD opponent) and then if time allows next fall, more of these to come.
Go Falcons!
TL;DR version
Northern Illinois has some key injuries, notably at QB, but NIU reloads better than anybody in this conference. I do not believe a QB change will hurt them too much. NIU has a solid running game which puts teams away and a corner who can disrupt good offenses. This is a game we can win if we play well but if we play like we did against UT, we could be in trouble.
The Series
- Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have a history of ruining each other's seasons. 2002, 2003, and 2013 all come to mind.
- This will be the third straight matchup of these two programs, and I would not be surprised if next year it is the same two.
Now I'm going to change things up a bit here format-wise. If you all prefer this format, let me know and I'll do future previews this style.
Passing Offense vs Northern Illinois
- We average 387.8 passing yards per game, which comfortably leads the conference. The pass offense has been a bit slower in recent weeks, partly due to self-inflicted wounds, partly due to stronger competition, partly due to weather.
- Northern Illinois gives up on average 233.25 passing yards per game. Which is actually about average in the conference. Better pass defenses in terms of yards ...
... - Buffalo - 227.3 (we passed for 324)
... - WMU 224.75 (we passed for 269)
... - Ohio 216.6 (we passed for 365)
... - Kent 206.17 (we passed for 430)
... - EMU 202.75 (gives up 300+ per game rushing)
... - CMU 189.7 (2nd best total defense behind Akron who has conference's best defense and allows on average <100 on the ground)
- So this pass defense is average. Let's take a deep dive into the stats ....
- NIU has 23 sacks on the year against 441 attempts. They come up with a sack on 5.215% of pass attempts, which is just about the average of all MAC teams (5.443%).
- NIU's D line is aggressive getting into the backfield. Here's your top sackers to keep an eye one ...
... - DE Perez Ford, Senior. 6-0 227 - 5 sacks
... - DT Ben Compton, Senior, 6-4 278 - 3 sacks
... - DE Ladell Fleming, Junior, 6-0 236 - 2 sacks
... - DE Cameron Clinton-Earl, Senior, 6-1 258 - 2 sacks
... - OLB Bobby Jones IV, Sophomore, 6-0 222 - 2 sacks
... - OLB Renard Cheren, Freshman, 6-0 224 - 1.5 sacks
... - When your defensive line is so good at disrupting the backfield, you can drop your linebackers into pass coverage. Any defensive coordinator loves this scenario.
- We give up a sack on an 6.31% of pass attempts, which is above average.
- Now here's one thing definitely not average about NIU. They have 19 interceptions, which leads the conference.
... - Do you know who has the second most interceptions? Bowling Green with 17.
- So Matt Johnson will have to be careful passing, especially against their top corner. Here's your interception leaders ...
... - CB Shawun Lurry, Sophomore, 5-8 178. 8 interceptions (!!)
... - SS Brandon Mayes, Sophomore, 5-11 193, 2 interceptions
... - FS Marlon Moore, Senior, 5-9 197, 2 interceptions
- Yes, you read that right. A corner ... not a safety ... has 8 interceptions. Video game stats. I expect he will be going up against Roger Lewis, but with how Deiter has come on recently NIU may put Lurry on Deiter and let Lewis get open.
... - Lurry had 2 interceptions vs Ohio State. Although he only has 1 in the last 5 games.
- The NIU defense has given up 20 TDs through the air, which is about average. But 20 TDs / 19 interceptions is healthy.
- We have 42 passing TDs. Easily the most productive passing offense NIU has seen all year.
- This pass defense is average on all marks except for one great corner. We have played other defenses with stars in the secondary and Matt has been effective at evenly distributing the ball.
- We have the best passing offense Northern Illinois has seen this year and it is not close.
- I think we'll be successful through the air. If NIU cannot stop our pass offense, we are in good shape.
Rushing Offense vs Northern Illinois
- We run for 178.2 yards per game, which is 5th best in the conference. As the pass offense has slowed down in recent weeks, the rush offense has become more successful.
- Northern Illinois gives up on average 158.6 yards per game, which is 6th best in the conference.
- Northern Illinois gives up an average of 3.78 yards per carry, which is one of the better in the conference.
... - We run for 4.65 per carry, which is third in the conference.
- Northern Illinois has only given up 10 rushing TDs, which is the best in the conference.
... - Just for fun, poor EMU has given up 44 rushing TDs and they give up almost 6.5 a carry and 300+ a game!
- Here's your top four tacklers ...
... - MLB Boomer Mays, Senior, 6-0 244. 59 solo tackles, 92 total. He is big for a LB and is all over the field. Very active in stopping the run game.
... - FS Marlon Moore, Senior, 5-9 197, 59 solo tackles, 88 total. He plays clean-up for the run game.
... - SS Brandon Mayes, 5-11 193, 55 solo tackles, 76 total.
... - OLB Sean Folliard, Junior, 6-2 231. 42 solo tackles, 69 total.
- And here are you top TFL ...
... - OLB Sean Folliard, Junior, 6-2 231, 8.5 TFLs.
... - DE Perez Ford, Senior, 6-0 227, 6.5 TFLs.
... - DE Cameron Clinton-Earl, 6-1 258, 6 TFLs.
- NIU has recovered 6 fumbles on the season and we have lost 5 fumbles. I would be surprised if we have ball security problems.
- Against Ohio State, Ezekiel Elliott averaged almost 5 a carry but his long was only 13. NIU kept him from breaking the game open on the ground and kept him out of the end zone.
- Central Michigan only averaged 2.4 per carry and under 100 on the ground but they still won largely due to NIU turning it over. NIU lost to CMU not because of the defense.
- UT carved up NIU for almost 300 on the ground but NIU won thanks to some late game offense.
- UB had one nice rush for nearly 50. Beyond that, they did nothing on the ground.
- NIU pretty well bottled up the WMU run offense.
- In the last game, Ohio ran for over 200 and picked up key first downs with a zone-read run game.
- This is a good run defense, but their last showing against Ohio has got to leave them feeling sour.
- If we can both run and pass well, NIU is in big trouble.
Passing defense vs Northern Illinois
- Note: last I heard is Ryan Graham is day to day, which is often code for will not play ... or will not reveal to opposing coach. If I were a betting man, I'd bet we see Fielder, not Graham, given the way Graham was hurt against Ohio. If we get a definite update, I might revise this section some.
- The injury to Drew Hare really hurt NIU. We all remember how well Drew Hare played vs us in the title game last year. So many times NIU was at 3rd and around 10 and Hare found a receiver just at the first down marker. He also was a big part of the run game and a big threat on the zone read.
- Hare was injured vs UT. But Ryan Graham stepped up and has done fine since. I have to give props to the young guy. In his limited time as the starter, he went 48 / 81 (59.3) for 6 TDs and 3 interceptions.
... - Obviously not the best stats but he did come up with some great play late against UT and he beat WMU. You can't argue with the results.
- But against Ohio, Graham got hurt. I read that Graham is day to day, which to me sounds like he is unlikely to play in the title game. But I'll cover both him and the young freshman.
... - Though I do not expect Graham to play, I am cheering for him. I'd rather see the guy who came up with the late wins get the opportunity to play for it all.
- So NIU will likely be playing a mostly unknown QB. True freshman Tommy Fiedler will get his first start unless Graham is ready to go.
- Fielder came in late against OU and honestly looked pretty good, going 9 / 17 with a TD along with some nice scrambles.
... - But his best drive was against OU playing the prevent. When OU was in their normal defense, he looked like a true freshman.
- Note: Fielder is a lefty. I'm not sure if we've played a left-handed QB yet this year.
- Considering the QB situation, going over average passing yards per game won't mean much. But I will highlight NIU's receivers. If Fielder can get the ball out, NIU has some good receivers.
... - Junior Kenny Golladay leads the way with 70 for 1107 and 10 TDs. He is a tall guy at 6-4 200. He is a matchup nightmare in the end zone.
... - He is unlikely to play against us due to injury but I have to give credit to Tommylee Lewis. He is a senior that was injured vs UT - Achilles tendon - and was initially declared out for the season but was listed as day-to-day leading up to the championship game. Hurts to see a senior go down that way. Lewis was such a big part of the offense for years. On the season, Lewis has 33 for 387 and 3 TDs.
... - Junior Aregeros Turner has stepped up in a big way for Tommylee Lewis. He has 37 for 335 and a TD. He is a junior and a quick guy at 5-11 178.
... - Senior Juwan Brescacin is a big play threat with 19 for 273 (14.37 average) and a TD.
... - An end zone threat is sophmore TE Shane Wimann. He is a big guy at 6-4 254. He has only 11 catches for only 98 yards but 4 TDs.
- On the season, NIU has given up 23 sacks on 355 pass attempts, or they give up sacks on 6.479% of pass plays. That is above average.
- They have come up with 25 sacks on 456 pass attempts, or a sack on 5.482% of pass plays. That is average for the conference.
- Now here's the big thing to know about the NIU offense. They rely on the run. They are not a big passing offense. And that is part of why I'm not so sure Fielder in the backfield will be much different than Graham, although neither of them bring what Hare brought.
- Northern Illinois is the conference's best run and deepest program. When one guy goes down, another steps up and NIU continues to roll. Yes, depth hurt them badly against Ohio, but I fully expect the young freshman will be ready.
- Obviously there are some limitations a coaching staff will keep in mind with a true freshman QB. He might not have the full playbook at his disposal. But the NIU coaches will put Fielder in a position to succeed. He will be ready and I expect the NIU offense will be effective.
Rushing defense vs Northern Illinois
- NIU runs. And they run. And they run some more. It doesn't matter if the head coach is Jerry Kill or Rod Carey. It doesn't matter who is in at QB or who is on the running back depth chart.
- Given the QB health situation and the likely reliance upon a third string true freshman QB, I would not expect too many QB runs. Which might be nice because Drew Hare chewed us up last year with the zone read. I have no idea who the fourth stringer is.
- This year, NIU is averaging 213.3 yards per game, which leads the conference. They use the run to wear out defenses.
- We give up an average of 166.2 yards per game, which is the 7th best. We do well against the Akrons and Kents and UMasses, but the better running offenses have been successful against us.
- NIU has 31 rushing TDs which leads the conference.
... - Second most rushing TDs? Bowling Green with 30.
- The running game all revolves around their big junior RB, Joel Bouagnon. He has 261 carries for 1213 (4.65 average) and 18 TDs.
... - He came up with 100 yards and at least a TD in just about all games this season.
... - But his worst game of the season by far was last week against OU. The Bobcats held him to 37 on 16 and no TDs. No surprise, his worst game of the season is NIU's worst game of the season.
- Bouagnon's relief is a quick guy who is having a great season. Sophomore RB Jordan Huff has 76 carries for 617 (8.12 average !) for 8 TDs. He is shorter but big and fast at 5-11 218.
... - Huff has some big runs which have propped his average up nicely. He has a 46 vs Murray State, 53 vs EMU, and 87 vs WMU. Plus a couple other carries in the 20s.
... - He is a faster guy than Bouagnon. Bouagnon will physically wear out the defense, then Huff hits you with a long run. One missed tackle and this guy can be dancing in the end zone.
- NIU has given up 12 fumbles on the season. We have only recovered 5 fumbles all year.
- The way to beat NIU this year is the same way you beat them every year. Stuff the run. Easier said than done.
- Now I do believe that NIU will rely upon the backs more than normal in order to keep the QB from having to make big passes or carry the ball.
- In general, NIU's strength is the offensive line. This year, there are 2 juniors, 2 seniors, and a freshman on the line. And the center is a senior.
... - This is a veteran line, as always. And a big line, as always.
... - The line paved the way for late wins over WMU and UT. They allowed some nice runs and kept the QBs standing.
... - But against OU, the line only paved the way for 73 rushing yards on 38 attempts (1.9 average).
... - If the line does not play well against us, we are in good shape. If they play well, we are in for a good game.
- This is as good of a running game as we have seen all year. We have to get some stops or else NIU will set the pace of the game, find themselves with a lead, and keep us in the rear view mirror all day. If we lose to NIU, it is most likely because the run game was successful and built a multiple possession lead for NIU.
Special Teams vs Northern Illinois
- Our special teams returns have been problematic much of this season and they had a bad outing vs Ball State. They'll need to tighten up because NIU has good STs.
- The lead PR is junior WR Chad Beebe. He has no TDs but some long returns and a healthy average of 8.54.
- The lead KR is junior WR Aregeros Turner. He has a KR TD and averages 25.62 per return.
- Punter Jacob Ambrose has a low average of only 37.27. But I think part of the average is NIU generally has good field position. More often than not, Ambrose is put in the position of trying to put the ball within the 20 instead of just booming it as far as possible.
- Kicker Christian Hagan is having a great season. He is 14 / 18. If NIU gets past the 40, I expect them to score.
NIU's regular season
NIU is 8-4 (6-2)
- NIU came up with a great offensive day in a win against UNLV. They were down by 14 early but dominated from there.
- NIU as expected destroyed Murray State.
- In Columbus, NIU played well against Ohio State. Their defense came up well, especially against the pass. The offense just could not pass well which led to the coaches getting conservative in the fourth in a winnable game. NIU was leading for some of the game but lost by 7.
- NIU did little offensively at Boston College but still nearly won. Their run defense got carved up but BC does that to everybody.
- Against CMU, NIU made key mistakes, including fumbles and ending drives on 4th down. But just like last year, NIU lost to CMU but rallied from there.
- NIU beat BSU, MU, and EMU as expected.
- NIU beat UT for the 6th straight time. That was after losing QB Drew Hare and WR Tommylee Lewis. Young QB Graham came up big late in the win.
- With Graham in, NIU beat UB and WMU but did not really dominate either.
- NIU was physically beat by Ohio. Graham got injured while trying to dig NIU out of a big hole and the even younger QB Fielder came in and led a late drive against a prevent defense but NIU could not recover on onside kick. NIU did little all day on offense.
Which all leads me to ...
Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois
- As of now, we are 9 point favorites. If Ryan Graham can go, I bet the line will change quite a bit.
- The game is in a dome. Barring one incredible snowstorm, weather will not be an impact.
- NIU limps into this game. Physically, they are limping with key injuries. But mentally, they are limping. They won the west, but that was thanks to WMU beating UT. NIU had the opportunity to seal the deal but played a complete dud of a game to Ohio.
- Last year, we limped into the title game while NIU came storming in. And NIU dominated.
- This year, we are the hot team. We have the conference's best record, the premiere win (blowout of Maryland), the premier players (Johnson and Lewis), and the hot head coach.
... - May we see the tables flipped this year under the opposite circumstances?
- The MAC west has been far better than the east this year but not to the level of last year. And we are 2-1 against the west, including beating WMU far worse than NIU. I don't believe the stats deceive us like they did last year when comparing these two teams.
- To win this game, we will have to play well on defense. If we end up in a shootout, I do not like our chances because NIU can clock control with the run. NIU has a true freshman QB and we know little about him. We also do not know how NIU will handle a young QB. Will they give him the whole offense? Will they let him run like Drew Hare? Will they limit him to mostly handoff duty and the occasional pass? Will he come up clutch or will he get rattled?
- Our offense could come up nicely. NIU is a mostly average defense with some bright points this season, like playing tough against Ohio State. They have seen nothing like our offense.
- I believe we also have to come up with an early lead. NIU's run offense can chew up the clock and keep you playing comeback all day.
- Last year, QB Hare came up with 3rd down conversions all game long which extended drives, kept our offense off the field, and helped them pull away early in the third. This year, if we can prevent those 3rd downs, it will help us come up with an early lead.
... - As I've said all year, we didn't have a defensive coordinator last year, we had a WR coach impersonating a DC. This defense is night and day better than last year.
- Also last year, our offense hit a wall with a young QB and a system that just wasn't working. Now we have one of the nation's best QBs and a system that is hitting on all cylinders.
- I expect we should win. But at the same time, Northern Illinois is the best program in the conference and they reload year after year. That is why I intentionally in this preview have undervalued the injuries and why I feel starting the line favoring us by 9 is unfair to NIU's program.
... - I know the feeling on the board is we should just walk all over NIU because of the injuries. I do not agree.
... - I believe there will certainly be a dropoff especially at the QB position but I do not believe it will be a significant dropoff.
- I just need to point out. There is a reason these two teams are in the championship game. You've got the best pass offense, the best rush offense, the two teams with the most rushing TDs, and the two teams with the most interceptions. These are the conference's best overall two teams.
- Our team better prep well. They need to come in focused but not wound up too tightly. And NIU needs to shake off last game because if they don't, they are in trouble.
- And I hope Matt Johnson has the game of his life. He had a career game two years ago and it would only be fitting for him to have the same again this year.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - A MAC championship!
... - A great last MAC game for our seniors
... - A complete fliparound from last season's championship game
... - A great showing by our defense
... - No injuries. None for either team. NIU especially has enough of those as is.
That's all for the MAC season! I'm looking forward to seeing you all at The Old Shillelagh for some Guinness. I hope you all have enjoyed reading these previews. I've still got one more this year (bowl game against TBD opponent) and then if time allows next fall, more of these to come.
Go Falcons!