Georgia Southern preview

[MarkL]

One last time to see Matt Johnson, Travis Greene, Alex Huettel, Zach Colvin (I sure hope he can go), Ryan Burbrink, and all the other seniors. Congrats guys on a great career!

TL;DR version
Scary rushing attack and all around solid team, but GSU is coming off a blowout loss to Georgia State where they couldn't stop the passing attack. I believe we should win this game but still, if we cannot stop the run we are in trouble.

The Series
- First meeting
- This is our 4th straight season with a bowl and our 8th since 2003.
- This is Georgia Southern's first ever bowl game. Expect their fans to be excited.

Passing Offense vs Georgia Southern
- We average 376.1 passing yards per game. The pass offense while excellent has been a bit slow recently, largely because the running game has emerged in a real way.
- Georgia Southern has a solid passing defense, allowing 203.9 per game. Of course, this is in the Sun Belt where there are not as many pass-oriented teams as the MAC.
- As a team, Georgia Southern has given up 19 TDs to 17 interceptions.
- We have 44 TDs to 8 interceptions. Really, this is going to be strength against strength.
- GSU has tallied 21 sacks, which is low-to-average. There isn't really a star here as they spread the sacks out ...
... - Junior DE Bernard Dawson. 6-2 248. 4 sacks.
... - Senior MLB Antwione Williams. 6-3 245. 4 sacks.
... - Sophomre DE Ryan George. 6-1 244. 3.5 sacks.
... - Junior DT Jamal Johnson. 6-2 245. 3 sacks.
- A couple of observations from the above (and this trend will continue) ...
... - their LBs are good size
... - their defensive lines are barely bigger than the LBs.
- As I said above, GSU has 17 picks on the season, which is a good amount. Your top two interception leaders ...
... - Senior SS Antonio Glover. 6-1 20. 6 interceptions
... - Senior CB Caleb Williams. 5-10. 3 interceptions
- This is a good pass defense. They have almost as many interceptions as touchdowns they give up, and they give up 200 yards a game.
- However our pass offense is something else. There is nothing Georgia Southern has seen this year that can possibly prep them for Matt Johnson, Roger Lewis, Gehrig Deiter, Ryan Burbrink, etc.
- Note. There could be bad weather. That may prevent us from passing as much as we would like to pass. So we may rely on the run heavily, but we have done that a lot in recent weeks so nothing new.

Rushing Offense vs Georgia Southern
- We run for 184.9 yards per game, an average which has increased seemingly every week in the final leg of the season.
- GSU gives up on average 132.2 yards per game, which is solid, one of the better run defenses we have played all year.
- GSU gives up 3.88 yards per carry and we as a sometimes explosive ground offense average 4.69 per carry.
- GSU has only given up 12 rushing TDs all year. Impressive.
Here's your top four tacklers ...
... Senior MLB Antwione Williams, 6-3, 97 total tackles (48 solo). Also the TFL leader with 10.5
... Junior OLB Ironhead Gallon, 5-11 210, 78 total tackles (40 solo)
... Senior SS Antonio Glover, 6-1 200, 54 total tackles (32 solo)
... Senior FS Matt Dobson, 6-2 206, 51 total tackles (31 solo)
- The DL is just not that active in tackles. Their DTs are 6-1 306 and 6-1 330 but their DEs are most certainly undersized.
- GSU has recovered 8 fumbles on the year. However with possible thunderstorms, we may run into some ball security issues.
- Really, this is an overall solid defense. From the game film I've seen of them, I am impressed the explosiveness of the front seven, both against the run and the pass.
... - This comes with a caveat. I just don't think the Sun Belt is as strong top to bottom as the MAC, particularly at offensive line. More later on this.

Rushing defense vs GSU
- Let's just get this out of the way. GSU is a running team. They line up in spread shotgun formations and they run. They do simple handoffs, they run QB pitch options, they run zone reads, etc etc etc. They are a spread option team and they use as many facets of an option attack and as many offensive weapons as you could imagine to run the ball.
- These stats are going to look scary. And stopping GSU is a tough proposition. The running game powers the whole team.
- They try to chew up time of possession with the run game so that the other team has little ability to pull away ... or come back.
- If you have a lead against GSU, you may never be able to put them away unless you force some turnovers and capitalize.
- And if you get behind and cannot stop the run, you are screwed.
- GSU averages 355.6 on the ground and 6.47 per carry. Some runs get stuffed at the LOS and then out of nowhere a back breaks free for a 40+ run.
- And GSU has run for 47 TDs.
- One would expect GSU to fumble it a lot when they run so much. But in reality not quite, as they have fumbled 18 times on the year, losing 11. With the weather perhaps bad, we may be able to force some fumbles.
- We give up an average of 161.6 per game on the ground and have improved on this front throughout the season. But we've seen nothing at all like this run game.
- Here's your top rushers. And it is OK if your jaw drops some ...
... - Junior RB Matt Breida, 5-11 190. 188 carries for 1540 (8.19 average!!) and 16 TDs. Yes, 8+ per carry. Lots of explosive runs out of this guy.
... - Sophomore RB L.A. Ramsby, 5-11 210. 153 carries for 772 (5.05 average) and 12 TDs. He is a bit more powerful. And it's not a good sign when you're relieved to deal with only a 5 per carry runner.
... - Junior QB Kevin Ellison, 6-0 195, 101 rushes for 642 (6.36 average) and 8 TDs. He is much more a runner than a passer. In this offense, the QB is definitely a part of the running game.
... - Freshman RB Wesley Fields, 6-0 195. 92 carries for 607 (6.60 average) and 6 TDs. This guy will only get better in his career.
... - Junior QB Favian Upshaw, 6-1 170, 68 rushes for 384 (5.67 average) and 2 TDs. I've heard this guy is the fastest on the team with a 4.3 40. He had a 48 yard rush against Georgia.
- GSU keeps their backs fresh. And that includes the QBs. They run 2 QBs in every game to keep legs fresh.
- As you may imagine with these kinds of stats, there is a great offensive line up front. All five are 300+.
- This is a great running game. And BTW, they ran for 233 on Georgia.
... - That number may not sound mind blowing but consider this. GSU is a one dimensional team and everybody knows it. GSU was outmatched talent-wise against Georgia. And they still ran this well and lost in OT.
- We've seen some teams run misdirection runs (Memphis for example) and some good offensive lines (UT, WMU, NIU) and some great running attacks (UT, WMU, NIU). But this is the best running attack all year.
- Since this is GSU's strength, we've got to attack the run and stuff it. If we cannot, our offense must go punch for punch with these guys and win a shootout.
- Note: Colvin's health is unknown. If he cannot go, it would be a huge blow to our defense.
- Our LBs better be ready for misdirections all game long.

Passing defense vs GSU
- GSU is a running team. They are not a passing team.
- They have 742 passing yards. On the season.
... - Matt Johnson would call that a nice two game stretch.
- As a team, they have 3 passing TDs against 10 interceptions.
- The pass is nothing more than a wrinkle in their offense. But when you are completely keyed in against the run, a good pass can throw a defense off completely.
- Here's the QBs ...
... - Junior Kevin Ellison, 6-0 195. 37/84 (44%), 532 yards, 3 TDs/5 picks.
... - Junior Favian Upshaw, 6-1 170. 18/45 (40%), 210 yards, 0 TDs/5 picks.
- The receivers are more involved in the run game as blockers than they are in the pass game.
... - Junior WR BJ Johnson, 6-1 212. 14 receptions for 232 and 0 TDs. Yes, your leading receiver has 14 receptions. On the season.
... - Sophomore WR Myles Campbell, 5-6 170. 8 receptions for 130 and 0 TDs.
... - Senior WR Ryan Longoria, 6-2 195, 12 receptions for 121 yards and 0 TDs.
... - The three TDs were caught by the third string running back, a receiver with 6 receptions on the season, and a TE whose only reception is a 23 yard TD.
- I can't say the last time we played a pass offense this not scary. Kent State? 2014 VMI?
- But if we send, say, 9 guys against run, expect a pass, a catch, and a lot of yards. You can't sleep on the pass offense ... even if they rarely pass.

Special Teams vs GSU
- The leading PR is senior WR Derek Keaton. He averages 15.29 per return but has not scored. We'd better be ready.
- Keaton also is the leading KR averaging 26.47 per return.
- The punter Ryan Nowicki averages over 40 per boot. Not bad.
- The kicker, Alex Hanks, is 8/10 on the season.
- GSU has for the most part been solid against punt and kick returns.
- All around great special teams here.

GSU's regular season
GSU is 8-4 (6-2 Sun Belt)
- GSU was shut out in game 1 by West Virginia 44-0. Favian Upshaw got the start at QB and ... well ... 2/13, 29 yards, 0 TDs/4 picks. Yes, he completed double the passes to the defense as he did to his own guys.
... - GSU was just overmatched. They failed to hit 200 yards rushing.
- GSU blasted Western Michigan 43-17. Note, this was before WMU hit stride.
... - GSU came up with over 400 on the ground, including a 70 yard Breida TD run. He also had a 34 yard TD run, which I guess qualifies as a disappointment.
... - The GSU defense came up with 3 interceptions. And Upshaw did ... better I guess, going 1/4 with 0 TDs and 0 picks.
- GSU dominated the Citadel 48-13. And they ... passed? Kevin Ellison went 10/17 for 80 (no TDs or picks).
- GSU blasted Idaho 44-20 and ran for over 400. Breida had TD runs of 88 and 63.
- GSU beat Louisiana Monroe 51-31 and had 455 yards rushing. ULM is a pass-oriented team and though they passed for over 230, they went 3 TDs/3 picks.
- GSU beat an overmatched New Mexico State team 56-26 ... and rushed for over 500. They averaged 8.6 per carry with long runs all over the place.
- Appalachian State beat GSU behind an efficient passing attack (14/20, 202, 2 TDs/0 picks) and a great defensive effort, holding GSU to under 200 on the ground. App State won 31-13.
- GSU bounced back to beat Texas State 37-13. All they did was run for 500+ and 4 TDs.
- GSU hammered Troy 45-10, including 80 passing yards and a TD. Only 325 rushing yards and 4 TDs.
- GSU took Georgia to OT and lost. The running game kept them in it. GSU was able to slow the game down and prevent Georgia from running away with the game. And GSU's defense played great, holding Georgia to 130 rushing yards and forcing stops all game long.
- GSU bounced back to destroy South Alabama 55-17. They rushed for almost 500 and 6 TDs. South Alabama at one point lead 14-7 off of a scoop-and-score. GSU outscored them 48-3 from there.
- Georgia State, as in the Georgia State that beat Ball State and we all called it an upset, destroyed GSU 34-7. How? Good passing. 20/32, 346 yards, 3 TDs/1 pick. And good defense, holding GSU to 135 yards on 44 carries and only 1 score.
... - Formula to beat them? I can tell you this - our pass offense is far, far, far better than Georgia State.
... - Georgia State finished the season on a four game win streak, all multiple possession games and mostly blowouts.

Which all leads me to ...
Bowling Green vs Georgia Southern
- As of now, we are 7.5 point favorites.
- It should be warm in Mobile but currently 60% chance of thunderstorms. Weather could play a real impact, and I would have a tendency to think bad weather hurts us far worse than GSU.
- GSU likes to slow the game down offensively and dominate TOP. This certainly helps their defensive stats.
- We play fast. It will be interesting to see who dictates the game pace.
- Both teams have interim head coaches.
... - I just have to say, Dino Babers got a great job in Syracuse. Fritz to Tulane? Doesn't add up to me. But maybe Fritz thinks his system can make Tulane an annoying AAC team. Like Navy.
- Obviously both teams have some eye popping stats. However I notice a big difference. Both teams have played some power teams.
... - We put up great offensive stats against Tennessee, Maryland, and Purdue. And we were rusty against Tennessee.
... - GSU hung with Georgia by slowing the game down. But WVU got away from them. They got frantic and threw interceptions.
... - It makes me think that we have played better against better competition. And it also makes me question the competitive difference between the MAC and the Sun Belt.
- On the competitive difference, I have always considered the MAC an overall better conference. The Sun Belt has great athletes at skill positions but I've always considered the MAC to have better lines.
... - And when it comes to skill positions, we have the conference's best.
- So there's really two ways to win this game and I think we can do both.
... - 1, stop the run. GSU cannot beat us with the pass game. Yes they will complete some passes on us and it will be awfully frustrating when we have them at 3rd and 9 and they complete a pass. So key in on the run and make them try to beat us with their 40% completion pass offense.
... - 2, score more than they are capable of scoring. I really don't like getting into shootouts but if we must, so be it and I like our chances in a shootout with these guys.
- I'm not sure what the mindset of each team is going to be. Our guys knew Babers was going to be leaving soon and they played their hearts out for him in the championship game. And they wished him all the best - no hard feelings at all.
... - Will our guys be ready to play as hard in the bowl game? I would expect so. With so many senior leaders, I expect they will be ready.
- Did GSU expect Fritz to leave? His hiring by Tulane seemed odd ... and surprising. Did his players expect it, and how will they respond?
... - Also, GSU played flat against Georgia State in the finale. Will they be mentally in this game? Will they be amped with a huge crowd in Mobile for the first ever program bowl game?
- I expect a win. I feel like our defense has improved so much week to week and our run defense will not be able to stuff GSU but they will be able to prevent GSU from running away with this one.
- And I expect our offense will be explosive against GSU.
- If we lose this one, it will be because the run gets away from us or we turn it over ... or both.
- I hope our seniors all leave on a high note. I'd love to see Burbrink and Gallon ... yes Gallon if the coaches give him the opportunity to play ... catch TDs in this one.
- What I want out of this game ...
... - Another bowl win!
... - A great final game for our seniors
... - A solid showing by our defense
... - No injuries. None for either team.

That's all for 2015! I've greatly enjoyed putting these together week to week and I hope you have enjoyed reading these. We'll see if I have it in me to do this again in 2016.

[Flipper]

We're running the ball better because teams took away our sideline routes. With so much of the defense on the edges, there's a ton of running room between the tackles. Just wait half a second, find the hole and your in the secondary.

[Rollo83]

We're running the ball better because teams took away our sideline routes. With so much of the defense on the edges, there's a ton of running room between the tackles. Just wait half a second, find the hole and your in the secondary.

That also describes my lovemaking technique...

[Falcon Commander]

[Flipper]

We're running the ball better because teams took away our sideline routes. With so much of the defense on the edges, there's a ton of running room between the tackles. Just wait half a second, find the hole and your in the secondary.

That also describes my lovemaking technique...

You owe me for that set up

[MarkL]

This thread may win the award for fastest derailment ever

[PX15]

JMOFO:

Being a die hard GS Eagle Fan "hope springs eternal" that our Eagles have a chance to win this game, but just cause I wear rose colored glasses where my Georgia Southern football team is concerned?

It's gonna really have to be a good night for our GS team if we expect to win, and I'm not too optimistic about the outcome being decided in our favor.

We know what an awesome passing attack your team brings to the table, and (sadly) we know how poor a passing defense we offer to counter it, so?

This has been a crazy season for our Georgia Southern football team as it seems our Eagles constitute, at times, both a very good team, and, at times, an equally bad team, and you simply never know which is going to show up on any given occasion..

I believe our number one running back is iffy with a bad ankle sprain, and our number one quarterback was not practicing last week because of nagging shoulder injuries..

Not a good indicator for us.

Do I believe that our Eagles COULD win the game?

Absolutely, because when our offense is "clicking" they can run up and down the field, wear out the opponents defense and score a lot of points doing it..

Do I THINK our Eagles will win the game?

Honestly, probably not.

Between injuries of our key players and the drama, and emotions brought on with our head coach leaving so suddenly, it's gonna be hard days work for our team to come out ahead on the score board.

It's a "Jekyll/Hyde" deal, and you will know as soon as we do which team will show up.

It's our first bowl game, and we're just happy to be in it, just hope we give you a good contest.

But nothing is decided on fan forums, it's all personal opinion, and even a blind hog finds an acorn now and then.

Hope this upcoming Wednesday night our guys find more acorns than your guys..

And as another poster mentioned, I hope it's a good clean game, and no player on either team suffers a severe injury..

I'm guessing when the game is decided the Bowling Green faithful will say "well, that was an easy victory", or?

"What happened?

I hope it's "what happened" ?

Thanks!

J.