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All the scouting geniuses said the exact same things about Russell Wilson and every team passed on him twice. They are morons who grossly overvalue certain traits while undervaluing others and get things wrong far more often than they get them right.

BTW, Johnson's scrambling when pressured this past year nearly identically resembled how Wilson plays and Babers said he studied his film closely to learn how he does it.

Nice article and surprised it didn't mention he had some pretty good receivers over the years.

mscarn wrote:All the scouting geniuses said the exact same things about Russell Wilson and every team passed on him twice. They are morons who grossly overvalue certain traits while undervaluing others and get things wrong far more often than they get them right.

BTW, Johnson's scrambling when pressured this past year nearly identically resembled how Wilson plays and Babers said he studied his film closely to learn how he does it.

Good article, and I wish the best of luck to Matt at the next level.

I don't wanna turn this thread into a bashing of one of our own, but your take on NFL scouting/drafting couldn't be further from the truth. Russell Wilson is an enigma, an outlier. Even still he went in the 3rd round because he has EVERY trait you'd look for in an NFL QB but size; including having played in pro style sets and showing an aptitude for throwing from the pocket.

Projecting QBs from college to the NFL is largely luck. Very few colleges ask their QB to do anything similar to what NFL teams do, and the projection is very difficult. At the top of the draft it is roughly a 50/50 hit rate on QBs. But that is still light years better than what it is later in the draft. Statistics show that the higher the picks the higher the likelihood of NFL success. That tells me that they do a damned good job identifying the traits most likely to make a successful NFL QB. Obviously there are outliers in any dataset. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, etc. But for each of those guys we remember, who remembers the other 20 QBs that have gone in the 6th round since Tom and haven't done anything?

I don't think Matt is going to get drafted. I hope he finds his way into a camp that he has a legit shot to make the roster and can show something in camp. The kid is a winner, has the heart of a lion, and he will NEVER quit. Those are absolutely traits that NFL teams/scouts value, especially in a backup.

hammb wrote:

mscarn wrote:All the scouting geniuses said the exact same things about Russell Wilson and every team passed on him twice. They are morons who grossly overvalue certain traits while undervaluing others and get things wrong far more often than they get them right.

BTW, Johnson's scrambling when pressured this past year nearly identically resembled how Wilson plays and Babers said he studied his film closely to learn how he does it.

Good article, and I wish the best of luck to Matt at the next level.

I don't wanna turn this thread into a bashing of one of our own, but your take on NFL scouting/drafting couldn't be further from the truth. Russell Wilson is an enigma, an outlier. Even still he went in the 3rd round because he has EVERY trait you'd look for in an NFL QB but size; including having played in pro style sets and showing an aptitude for throwing from the pocket.

Projecting QBs from college to the NFL is largely luck. Very few colleges ask their QB to do anything similar to what NFL teams do, and the projection is very difficult. At the top of the draft it is roughly a 50/50 hit rate on QBs. But that is still light years better than what it is later in the draft. Statistics show that the higher the picks the higher the likelihood of NFL success. That tells me that they do a damned good job identifying the traits most likely to make a successful NFL QB. Obviously there are outliers in any dataset. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, etc. But for each of those guys we remember, who remembers the other 20 QBs that have gone in the 6th round since Tom and haven't done anything?

I don't think Matt is going to get drafted. I hope he finds his way into a camp that he has a legit shot to make the roster and can show something in camp. The kid is a winner, has the heart of a lion, and he will NEVER quit. Those are absolutely traits that NFL teams/scouts value, especially in a backup.

Those drafted in the lower rounds usually don't receive the opportunities the higher picks do. We can fill a 10 page thread with 1st and 2nd round QB busts and that reveals a deeply flawed (at best) scouting methodology.

If Bruce Gradkowski can earn an NFL paycheck for the better part of a decade Matt Johnson absolutely can.

Gradkowski was the magic "two inches taller"....

Talking to some friends of mine who are clued into NFL affairs, they've heard that Arizona likes Matt's potential and might sign him as an UDFA. Arians likes what he's seen on film and believes he can be developed under the right system.

mscarn wrote:

hammb wrote:

mscarn wrote:All the scouting geniuses said the exact same things about Russell Wilson and every team passed on him twice. They are morons who grossly overvalue certain traits while undervaluing others and get things wrong far more often than they get them right.

BTW, Johnson's scrambling when pressured this past year nearly identically resembled how Wilson plays and Babers said he studied his film closely to learn how he does it.

Good article, and I wish the best of luck to Matt at the next level.

I don't wanna turn this thread into a bashing of one of our own, but your take on NFL scouting/drafting couldn't be further from the truth. Russell Wilson is an enigma, an outlier. Even still he went in the 3rd round because he has EVERY trait you'd look for in an NFL QB but size; including having played in pro style sets and showing an aptitude for throwing from the pocket.

Projecting QBs from college to the NFL is largely luck. Very few colleges ask their QB to do anything similar to what NFL teams do, and the projection is very difficult. At the top of the draft it is roughly a 50/50 hit rate on QBs. But that is still light years better than what it is later in the draft. Statistics show that the higher the picks the higher the likelihood of NFL success. That tells me that they do a damned good job identifying the traits most likely to make a successful NFL QB. Obviously there are outliers in any dataset. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, etc. But for each of those guys we remember, who remembers the other 20 QBs that have gone in the 6th round since Tom and haven't done anything?

I don't think Matt is going to get drafted. I hope he finds his way into a camp that he has a legit shot to make the roster and can show something in camp. The kid is a winner, has the heart of a lion, and he will NEVER quit. Those are absolutely traits that NFL teams/scouts value, especially in a backup.

Those drafted in the lower rounds usually don't receive the opportunities the higher picks do. We can fill a 10 page thread with 1st and 2nd round QB busts and that reveals a deeply flawed (at best) scouting methodology.

If Bruce Gradkowski can earn an NFL paycheck for the better part of a decade Matt Johnson absolutely can.

I know Gradkowski played for UT, but he was more talented than Johnson. Matt struggles with pressure in the pocket and his passing accuracy isn't good enough. Gradkowski could throw and complete NFL routes...that is why he stayed in the league...Matt just isn't good enough, it's not really that close IMO.

apollo wrote:

mscarn wrote:

hammb wrote:

mscarn wrote:All the scouting geniuses said the exact same things about Russell Wilson and every team passed on him twice. They are morons who grossly overvalue certain traits while undervaluing others and get things wrong far more often than they get them right.

BTW, Johnson's scrambling when pressured this past year nearly identically resembled how Wilson plays and Babers said he studied his film closely to learn how he does it.

Good article, and I wish the best of luck to Matt at the next level.

I don't wanna turn this thread into a bashing of one of our own, but your take on NFL scouting/drafting couldn't be further from the truth. Russell Wilson is an enigma, an outlier. Even still he went in the 3rd round because he has EVERY trait you'd look for in an NFL QB but size; including having played in pro style sets and showing an aptitude for throwing from the pocket.

Projecting QBs from college to the NFL is largely luck. Very few colleges ask their QB to do anything similar to what NFL teams do, and the projection is very difficult. At the top of the draft it is roughly a 50/50 hit rate on QBs. But that is still light years better than what it is later in the draft. Statistics show that the higher the picks the higher the likelihood of NFL success. That tells me that they do a damned good job identifying the traits most likely to make a successful NFL QB. Obviously there are outliers in any dataset. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, etc. But for each of those guys we remember, who remembers the other 20 QBs that have gone in the 6th round since Tom and haven't done anything?

I don't think Matt is going to get drafted. I hope he finds his way into a camp that he has a legit shot to make the roster and can show something in camp. The kid is a winner, has the heart of a lion, and he will NEVER quit. Those are absolutely traits that NFL teams/scouts value, especially in a backup.

Those drafted in the lower rounds usually don't receive the opportunities the higher picks do. We can fill a 10 page thread with 1st and 2nd round QB busts and that reveals a deeply flawed (at best) scouting methodology.

If Bruce Gradkowski can earn an NFL paycheck for the better part of a decade Matt Johnson absolutely can.

I know Gradkowski played for UT, but he was more talented than Johnson. Matt struggles with pressure in the pocket and his passing accuracy isn't good enough. Gradkowski could throw and complete NFL routes...that is why he stayed in the league...Matt just isn't good enough, it's not really that close IMO.

Gradkowski's head for the game has kept him in the league, IMO. I don't think his arm talent is any better than Johnson's, but clearly he's an asset in the QB room as a backup for teams. Whenever he has to actually play he's awful. His career statistics are horrendous, and he's never even had that one or two rare stretches of good play that teams could latch onto that many career backups have.

He is in the league because he's good in meetings, he's good working with other QBs, etc. His physical talent is nothing.

If Matt Johnson can show THAT aptitude for the game, he can stick around for 10 years too. I don't think any of us can possibly know if he has that trait/capability.

mscarn wrote: Those drafted in the lower rounds usually don't receive the opportunities the higher picks do. We can fill a 10 page thread with 1st and 2nd round QB busts and that reveals a deeply flawed (at best) scouting methodology.
.

There is some truth to later round guys not getting the opportunities, but usually if they show something in practice they'll stick around long enough to eventually get a shot. And if they perform in preseason games they'll usually become a trade target. They may not get the 2nd/3rd chances some higher picks get, but I can just as easily argue it's not draft position as much as it is the players' traits that get them those shots. The same traits that made them high draft picks are what make teams willing to give them a 2nd/3rd chance.

As for the high picks busting, of course there are busts. There are busts at every position. Projecting QB from college to NFL is the hardest projection in sports because the things that make NFL QBs great are nearly undetectable and unpredictable.

Even still the 1st round has a nearly 50% hit rate on QB prospects. The 2nd round hits about 10-20%. Beyond that if you find a starter you basically hit the powerball. If the scouting system was so deeply flawed this simply wouldn't happen. You would see late round sleepers all the time that play as well as the high picks. That DOES happen at RB and OL, I'd tend to agree that the scouting at those positions must be flawed given how often later picks outperform the high drafted guys. But at QB? The correlation of draft position to success is nearly perfect.

In the last 20 years there have been countless late round draft picks at QB and basically Brady, Romo, and Wilson are the only ones worth anything for the team that actually took them. Garcia & Warner were 2 additional UDFA guys that made it after bouncing around training camps and playing in Canada & NFL Europe respectively. I think both of them, and Romo, are examples to show that if a guy is willing to stick with it and keep trying he'll get chances, IF he shows something worth giving him a chance. But regardless of chances in 20 years (and really Garcia was UDFA 22 years ago, but I'll add him anyhow) you've got 5 guys that went 3rd round or later that eventually became long term starters. And Wilson is the only one of these guys to be found in the last decade.

To me that is pretty damned good evidence that the NFL Scouts aren't missing many late round "gems" at QB.

Gradkowski could accurately zip it in on 10-15 yd routes...even in college...while he was moving. He gained a little arm strength once he got into the NFL. MJ doesn't have that kind of arm. He has to stop and set to gun it. At least that's my impression....that and he seemed to have issues reading the defense once teams adjusted to us late in the season.

Maybe a year or two in Canada will help him get a handle on the game a bit...

Flipper wrote:Gradkowski could accurately zip it in on 10-15 yd routes...even in college...while he was moving. He gained a little arm strength once he got into the NFL. MJ doesn't have that kind of arm. He has to stop and set to gun it. At least that's my impression....that and he seemed to have issues reading the defense once teams adjusted to us late in the season.

Maybe a year or two in Canada will help him get a handle on the game a bit...

And even with that accurate skill he's been mostly horrible whenever he's actually had to play. I really don't think anything he has done or will do on the field is why he's stuck around. He just must be really good at the mental aspects...it's really the only explanation that makes any sense.