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Ohio State preview

The season is finally here! It's about time to play some football again. And as the tradition goes every few years, we get to see a new head coach in game #1.

Now to preface this preview, this one is hard to do. There is a reason I start previews a month in. Quite simply, I have nothing other than last year's stats and offseason stories as a base for this preview. And same goes for coaches scouting the opposing team. This preview will be a bit simpler than last year's previews. And I don't know how much time I'll get in the coming days, so might as well knock this off now, a week in advance.

So with all that out of the way, here we go.

BG pass defense vs Ohio State pass offense

• Last year Ohio State tried rotating QBs and did not settle on a guy until too late. The result is JT Barrett badly underperformed. This year, he is undoubtedly the guy as a RS junior.
• Barrett will be the most talented and scariest QB we will see this whole year. Good to get him out of the way quickly. You've all seen what he can do. If you're not sure, just watch a few minutes of 2014 OSU vs Michigan State.
• Now the major question is who will actually be catching his passes? The leading returning receiver is last year's 2nd string running back Curtis Samuel.
• No WRs with any real playing time from last year return. In fact, if you add up the top 4 returning WRs, you get a total of 6 catches for 123 yards. So we are looking at a brand new receiving corps and we know very little about them.
  • Here's what I've heard. Senior Corey Smith has done very well in practice. 6'1 190 and solid speed. He is a sixth year senior, granted a medical RS, so he is a mature guy who finally gets to see the field.
  • TE Marcus Baugh is prototypical TE size - 6'5 258. Only two catches last year.
• It is well known that our secondary is the thinnest unit of our team. I would actually say Ohio State has less experience at receiver than we do at DB. Losing Stephens obviously hurts a ton but we do return Will Watson and Alfonso Mack, who have both started a lot of games.
• We also return some good talent on the defensive line, including Schwieterman from 2014. Between 2015 sacks (and Schwieterman's 2014 stats), we return 14 sacks at D line alone.
  • The secondary is the thinnest unit of our team. The defensive line will be one of our strengths.
• All in all, I'd say we are a more experienced pass defense than Ohio State is pass offense. However, the raw talent of Ohio State combined with the excellent play of Barrett is of great concern. Our pass defense will be in for a workout.
• Although the pass defense will be probably less important than ....

BG run defense vs Ohio State run offense

• Urban Meyer wants to establish the run. He's got talent in his backfield but not much experience outside of Barrett.
• The leading returner rusher is JT Barrett with over 700 yards in 2015. He is an absolute terror on zone reads.
• The next leading rusher is Curtis Samuel with 17 carries for 132 yards. Samuel is a quick back and will be a hybrid back and receiver, which suggests to me OSU will flex their RB depth.
• And behind him, nobody has an FBS carry. There is a trio of talented freshmen in Mike Weber, Antonio Williams, and Demario McCall, all rated as 4 star recruits.
  • Weber redshirted last year. I would bet only one of Williams and McCall will redshirt.
• The talent is there. The experience is not.
• Offensive line effectively returns three starters including the center. They are a talented and big bunch.
• I already stated above that we return a good defensive line. We also return a solid set of linebackers with a lot of experience. The tackle count below:
  • Valdez - 58 solo tackles, 86 assisted
  • Greene - 66 solo tackles, 60 assisted
  • Sanford - 50 solo tackles, 41 assisted
  • And they combine for over 20 TFLs.
• BG is known for offense. The offense has gotten the most attention and the most worry this offseason. I'm going to go out on a limb here and make a bold prediction:
  • We will have the MAC's best defensive front 7.
• My expectation is our defense will play well early against the run. However, the run game will eventually take a toll on our defense, wear them out, which will naturally lead to big plays in both the run and pass game.
• Now a quick overall thought on the defense. Coach E probably wants to run a 4-2-5. That is his background. He does not have the secondary for that, so I expect a 4-3 with a hybrid linebacker, possibly similar to what we saw in 2012 and 2013.
  • That same defensive scheme did very well against the run except against powerful offensive lines and backs. Like Pitt. So if we get run all over in game one, don't worry too, too much.

BG pass offense vs Ohio State pass defense

• OSU does not return much of last year's defense. However, the returning DEs are scary.
• Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard both got significant play time last year and combined for 22 TFLs and 14.5 sacks. And that was in Joey Bosa's shadow. Now they get to star while Bosa still refuses to sign at San Diego. Our O line has to be ready.
• Only one returner in secondary with any real experience. Corner Gareon Conley - 41 tackles 2 INTs
  • There are six other defensive backs who have seen the field. They have combined for 33.5 tackles, 0 INTs.
• OSU always has talented DBs. This year they have talented unproven DBs. I have no doubt when the season closes, this will be a rock solid pass defense. I'm glad we get them early.
• Now our pass offense returns a starting QB from 2014 in Knapke and a proven commodity at receiver in Ronnie Moore.
• The rest of the receivers as talented as they are inexperienced. This will be the first time we see Redding and Miller in significant minutes and the first time we see Phouthavong, Pough, Dossous, and several others.
• OSU is inexperienced in the secondary. If our receivers are ready, our pass offense could sneak up on Ohio State. If our new guys still green, I just can't see us having an advantage.

BG run offense vs Ohio State run defense

• I already mentioned two good DEs.
• OSU also returns one starting LB - Raekwon McMillan, MLB. In 2015 he came up with 88 tackles, 4 TFLs.
• They also have two OLBs with some play experience. Dante Booker and Chris Worley combined for 33 tackles, 2.5 TFLs.
• This will be a solid LB corps. But again, inexperienced.
• Jinks is a RB coach. He will surely want to establish the run from the beginning. With our solid offensive line, even without Jacob Bennett, I think we can run on these guys.
• Coppett obviously didn't get as many carries as Greene but he came up with 5.7 per carry in 2015. Greene came up with 5.8.
  • And we all remember against bigger, better defenses, Coppett was often more effective than Greene. Greene's strength was in breakaway runs where Coppett could take LBs for a ride.
  • Remember that draw against Maryland on 3rd and 10 or so? Coppett came up with a 20+ yard run where it took just about the entire defense to take him down.
• And we add Josh Cleveland. No FBS experience but he is lightning fast. And of course we have Donovan Wilson, who will be the strongest back for either team.
• I believe we can run on these guys. And I believe the run game will help establish the pass game. We can move and we can score on these guys.

Special Teams

• Just too early in the game to know much about ST.
• Here's my two biggest concerns.
  • Our KR and PR units were horrible the first few games last year. They must be ready because Ohio State will have solid return units. They always do.
  • Our place kicking apparently has been headache inducing in camp. If we get into the red zone we have to score. We can't miss FGs against these guys. We must score when we get close if we want to win this thing.
• Now our biggest strength is Joseph Davidson. He has as big of a leg as you can ask for.

Overall thoughts

• Obviously this is early. I just do not have a beat on either team. We have a brand new coaching staff and new faces everywhere, they have new faces everywhere and a new defensive coordinator.
  • Obligatory laugh at Greg Schiano
• Ohio State had an insane number of players go in the draft last year which naturally means lots of new faces this year. In fact, Phil Steele rated OSU as the least experienced team nationwide going into this season.
  • In a way, their situation reminds me of our 2010. They have 44 freshmen on their team! And if the recruiting class holds together, they have one whale of a class coming in next year.
  • Beat these guys this year. Barring a meltdown, Ohio State is about to become damn near unstoppable as these kids get older under one of the greatest coaches in the game.
  • Remember how much we improved each year from 2010 to 2013? We started at horrible rock bottom. Ohio State starts at Ohio State level with all these young kids.
• We lost a head coach, a record setting QB, our statistically all-time best RB, 3 of our top 4 receivers, several of our top players at all layers of the defense, and have since seen a running back, a DB, and an OL lose the year due to injury.
  • Point is, both teams will be breaking in new players. I expect growing pains on both sides of the field.
• My gut says we will hang around for a while but Ohio State will establish the run early which will wear out our front 7 in the second half. At that point they will hit us with big plays and pull away.
• However with how inexperienced they are, this game is winnable if we play smart. If we do not allow the running game and the zone read to gouge us for first downs and we play efficient, turnover free offense, this is winnable.
• We must minimize self-induced mistakes. Those sunk us against Tennessee and prevented us from leading Maryland the whole game.
• I believe the more we force them to pass, the better. One of their weakest points experience wise is receiver. The talent is there but the experience is minimal. Pressure the receivers. Put the weight of a loss to an in-state MAC team on them, not the running game.
• I imagine the gameplan will largely involve Ronnie Moore. He is our quickest and most experienced playmaker. If the defense starts keying in on him then use Miller and Dossous in the same fashion and catch them off guard.
  • Be unpredictable and at some point a two yard catch will turn into a big play.
• It is imperative that we score every time we are in the red zone. If that means we have little confidence in the kickers, go for it on fourth down if reasonable.
• And the big X factor. This will be the first time Jinks manages a game. The first time he calls plays, decides what to do on fourth down, decides how often to substitute, etc. How will he be? That is anyone's guess. Even in Texas, experience as a high school head coach is nothing like at the college level going up against one of the behemoths in the game.
• And perhaps most importantly, have you seen that straw hat with the BG logo Jinks wears during practice? Please tell me he plans on wearing that on the sidelines. If we pull this game off, that hat will be on ESPN non-stop for a solid week.
• What I want out of this game
  • Shock the world!
  • A fun time back in Ohio. I'll be there with family.
  • No injuries. None for either team. We already have enough season ending injuries.

Excellent preview Mark. While the odds are certainly against us, I have this nagging feeling in my gut that somehow we win this game. Can't explain it but it was the same feeling I had before the Cavs/Warriors Game 7. Nobody ever thought the Cavs would force a Game 7, let alone win the series. We MUST play mistake free football...no turnovers, no stupid penalties, no missed tackles (cuz we will pay dearly with osu's speed). OTOH, all the pressure is on osu. Hell all their fans are already talking about the OK game in week 3. They play Tulsa after us and Tulsa has a dangerous O as well. Our cats can play loose as hell...the longer we hang around, the tighter the noose gets on all those young players and Urban.

"BG is known for offense. The offense has gotten the most attention and the most worry this offseason. I'm going to go out on a limb here and make a bold prediction: We will have the MAC's best defensive front 7."

We have the best LB unit in the league and our DL, while losing Royster, Colvin and Minns, has enough beef and experience to be quite good. A solid pass rush and great LB play will help our secondary BiG time.

Hope to see you at the Shoe! GO FALCONS!!!!!! #BeatOhioState

If OSU looks dreadful on offense I think Meyer is smart enough to just let Barrett beat us with his legs. I'd be okay with this because that means it would be close and got a shot.

kdog27 wrote:If OSU looks dreadful on offense I think Meyer is smart enough to just let Barrett beat us with his legs. I'd be okay with this because that means it would be close and got a shot.

Exactly what I was thinking. If all else fails, he'll always have the option of just putting Barrett in the shotgun and having him run it. He's a good enough athlete that he'll make plays. We always seems to struggle with fast, shifty QBs. I guess that can be said for other teams too, since they are, after all, fast and shifty.

Barrett at QB reminds me a little bit of Josh Cribbs. I hope we don't see Barrett go nuts on us the way Cribbs did in the 2003 game. That was an unbelievable performance. I think he ran for something like 200 yards and also threw for around 200 - 250. Watching him shake off tacklers and run away from defenders was incredibly frustrating but impressive at the same time. One of the best individual performances I have ever seen. Barrett has some of the same kind of ability and that scares me. Difference is, Cribbs had to do it all by himself and Barrett is surrounded by all 4 and 5 star recruits.

Even with a green team, Urban has a bounty of excellent athletes that BG will have problems matching up with. Do I think it'll be a laugher? No. BG has enough experience at key positions to cover...but I don't think we can fool ourselves into believing this is a winnable game. A respectable showing however will provide a good boost of confidence in the coaching staff for the remainder of the schedule.

Great job as always Mark!

The days of looking for a "respectable showing" are over. ANY game can be won or lost.

I have to admit, I do worry if this thing gets close what kind of shenanigans we will see from the refs. In 2003 there was the fumble recovery that wasn't and the pass interference that should have been. In 2006 Troy Smith turned a fumbled snap on 3rd and long into a 20+ yard scramble for 1st and 10, thanks to a blatantly missed holding call which even the pro-OSU commentators pointed out. In 2011, UT had OSU dead to rights but the refs called a statistically significantly greater number of penalties against UT than normal and statistically fewer against OSU than normal. The penalties severely impacted the outcome of that game.
If this thing is close, our players have to play their absolute cleanest. And when our D line is held, make it obvious that there is holding going on. Appalachian State dealt with these types of shenanigans against Michigan in 2007 and they prevailed.

MarkL wrote:I have to admit, I do worry if this thing gets close what kind of shenanigans we will see from the refs.

Also not mentioned in all the reviews on the 2003 Ohio State game is the Ohio State timekeeper running off the clock on BG. I can't believe nothing was ever challenged on this issue since it was so obvious. BG fans in the stands at that game were screaming about the clock management. Here is one example of many. Notice the clock at 1:30 of the fourth quarter during the fumble recovery and the six seconds that were run off after the clock was stopped.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-H-i8zqZJg0" target="_blank

3 quick updates.
Ohio State has suspended for the season a WR who was projected to start - Torrance Gibson.
Cam Burrows, a safety who was projected on the two deep, was injured and is out for the season. He's not on the official two deep because the injury happened just before release.
RFr Mike Weber is starting at RB. 5-10 212. Ideal size for a powerful back and he also has wheels.

BG71 wrote:

MarkL wrote:I have to admit, I do worry if this thing gets close what kind of shenanigans we will see from the refs.

Also not mentioned in all the reviews on the 2003 Ohio State game is the Ohio State timekeeper running off the clock on BG. I can't believe nothing was ever challenged on this issue since it was so obvious. BG fans in the stands at that game were screaming about the clock management. Here is one example of many. Notice the clock at 1:30 of the fourth quarter during the fumble recovery and the six seconds that were run off after the clock was stopped.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-H-i8zqZJg0" target="_blank

Absolutely. We were totally hosed at the end of the game and the whole freakin stadium knew it.

If we had the 2015 Falcon team marching into Columbus Saturday, a BG upset would not be out of the realm of possibility. It would be one hell of a game to watch with MattyJ and company going after a depleted Buckeye defense. With a brand new, inexperienced coaching staff, many new starters ourselves going into the home open of 105k whack jobs, I look for both teams to start sloppy, lots of penalties and not be real productive. Second half will be a far more talented OSU team taking control and wearing us down.

No injuries and nothing stupid to disrespect our school is paramount!!

GO Falcons!!

I just hope we can keep the game close for a while before tOSU inevitably pulls away. I don't care how young they are, they're a top-5 program in the nation, and they are going to wear us down. We simply don't have the depth that they have. If we win, I will be ecstatic, and I'll come back on this site & apologize for ever doubting us. But we are not going to win.

Ohio State was ranked No. 4 when we played them in 2003.

Anything can happen.

[quote="Schadenfreude"]Ohio State was ranked No. 4 when we played them in 2003.

Anything can happen.[/quote]


AMEN!

To everyone jumping on OSU winning this game...

Does anyone remember in 2012 when we went into Florida who ended up being ranked I think #2 in the nation and finished the season 11-2. No one expected BG to even compete in the home opener. We lost that game because Stephen Klein our kicker at the time missed like 4, 27- yard field goals that game. We should of beat a great Florida Gators team. In past years from what I can remember for whatever reason BG has always played really well when there is zero expectations but always seem to under-perform when their is mass expectations. Everyone on that BG team has a chip on their shoulder and something to prove including the coaching staff. We still have great players replacing our offense, an extremely experience o-line with a similar system. The main question to whether BG actually makes this game a close one is our defensive coordinator and how prepared the D is to go against Barrett. BG is going to compete and anything nowadays is possible in college football, even D1 AA teams give these elite programs scares.

I hope BG plays there hearts out