QB
- If you look at James Morgan's season stats (183 / 326 [56.1%], 16 TDs / 15 interceptions), it is hard to be excited. If you consider that he was a freshman throwing to green receivers all year long and late in the season spent more time handing the ball off than anything, you can anticipate his potential.
- The stats are awfully similar to the last time we started a freshman QB, Matt Schilz in 2010 (229 / 377 [60.7%], 8 TDs / 14 interceptions). Morgan did a better job on the TD / Int ratio, which one should in a pass-friendly offense.
- Morgan has awesome size. Physically, he is all you could ask for in a QB. Big arm, big body, some mobility.
- He had some great moments. Against UT's swiss cheese defense, Morgan looked as good as any QB we've had recently. He also had some freshman moments. He often looked uncomfortable against EMU, Ohio, Miami, and NIU.
- If Morgan improves as much as, for example, Schilz did between freshman and sophomore year, we could have an exciting QB. The potential and talent are there. Now it is time to develop.
- And that Jarret Doege looks impressive. He looks built for this offense.
- Fred Coppet will be an enormous loss. 1030 yards, came on strong late in the season. He clearly wanted to leave the program on a high note.
- Donovan Wilson played a nice role as a power back. He also came on strong late, finishing with 503 yards.
- And add the spark-plug Josh Cleveland to the mix and we've got the closest thing to Kent State's 2012 "Thunder and Lightning" game I've seen in the MAC.
- We also return Matt Domer from injury. He looks similar to Travis Greene in his speed burst.
- All around, we've got some good RB depth. My expectation is Domer will be the "starter", but Wilson and Cleveland will play as many minutes as possible. If that is the case, we may not see a 1000 yard rusher as we have several times recently, but we may have two or more at 700.
- And more importantly, the play of the RBs will depend upon the play of the offensive line. More on that soon.
- Think back to as early as 2001. In almost every team, we've had dominant outside receivers. Be it size advantage, speed advantage, physicality advantage, or that instinct to get open and win the jump for the ball, we've always been able to rely on dominance especially against MAC corners.
- Robert Redd, Charles Sharon, Steve Sanders, Corey Partridge, Marques Parks, Freddie Freaking Barnes, Kamar Jorden, Shaun Joplin (when he held onto the ball), and then perhaps the best pair of outside receivers I've ever seen at BG, Roger Lewis and Gehrig Dieter.
- So when I say it was shocking how often our outside receivers were not getting the job done, maybe I mean to say we have been spoiled.
- Now before you interpret the above to be a knock on our players, consider this: Teo Redding and Deric Phoutavang were supposed to be understudies to Lewis and Dieter respectively. And Redding was also supposed to be in the rotation with Robbie Rhodes.
- Then Lewis decided to take his shot at the NFL, Dieter decided to take his shot at grad school, and Rhodes decided to make an immature selfish decision. Out of nowhere, Redding and Phoutavang went from young receivers learning the ropes to the starters and leaders, all with a new QB and a whole new coaching staff.
- Point is, there were some incredibly straining circumstances here. Redding played hard all year, came on strong mid-season, and had one hell of a catch against I think NIU. Phoutavang just wasn't ready, which led to Ronnie Moore moving from his natural slot position to outside receiver. Hopefully with time Phoutavang will develop into a great receiver - by all accounts I've heard, he is a high character kid.
- If Redding continues to improve, he will be a solid outside receiver and I may end up adding him to the list of dominant receivers. Opposite of him, I expect Guyton will be the starter from day one. He just looks the part. He has the size and physicality we did not have this year.
- On the inside, Scott Miller was a pleasant surprise. I fully expected the top receiver to be Moore, but it ended up being Miller, and that was even before Moore moved to the outside. Miller easily led the team with 10 TDs (next closest was Redding with 3) and almost 1000 yards.
- Zimmerman was also a pleasant surprise. He has a bright future and a quick set of legs. Now does anybody know the extent of his injury against Buffalo? I heard it looked really bad from the field so I hope he's all ready to go. I just hate seeing injuries and seeing him as a small guy go down with such a big hit made me cringe.
- Talent is not an issue. This is a wildly talented and athletic set of receivers. Now it is time for reps and more reps.
- Dossous is leaving, which is a disappointment. He never really came on this year and I was hoping he would be a major player in year 2.
- The new class of receivers looks awesome. Just what the doctor ordered. There's size, there's speed. Jinks said recruiting receivers would be a priority and he was not kidding.
- Koontz looks like a great TE prospect. I imagine a TE like Alex Bayer would flourish in this offense - maybe Koontz can do the same.
- I have three major X Factors on the team (more on that later), and OL is one of them.
- We had 3 seniors and 2 juniors starting on the line. You don't get better by losing 3 starters.
- The line was shaky early in the season, which was hugely disappointing. Then the line came on strong late ... and the whole team came with them.
- I'll be honest - I know very little about our line depth. Besides the injury to Jacob Bennett, we had remarkable injury success recently. I could take a guess at who will replace Dietz, Steward, and Beggan next year, but it would be a blind guess.
- The running game will go as far as the offensive line will let it. If you look at the progression of the line as a sign of good position coaching, there is reason to be optimistic the new line next year will be ready. And you also can be realistic and remember that replacing three starters is hard to do.
- What I do know is Jinks and the staff have recruited some MAJOR size at OL.
- Bush and Lunsford are gone, so there go two DL starters. We rotated DLs a lot, and I would take a venture David Konowalski (2.5 sacks), Gus Schwieterman (5 sacks), and Tyrik Jones (4.5 sacks) will be playing a lot of minutes this next year.
- Jones had a solid year as a freshman. He's not overly big but he's got a nice motor.
- It has been a few years since we've had a dominant defensive line. I think the coaching staff knows that - we pulled in some nice size and talent at DL.
- I frankly don't have much to say here right now. I'm just hopeful that the line takes a step forward. They were pushed around way too much by good offensive lines this year. That's got to improve. We gave up an average of 190 rushing yards per game this year, and that is skewed low by playing one-dimensional Kent State very well and stuffing their obvious run plays.
- I again don't have much to say here. Losing Trenton Greene is going to hurt - that guy played so well for us this past year. He has been a real pleasure to watch.
- Valdez will be back and hopefully will be able to stay healthy for his senior year. He's not the most physical LB but he seems to be a real leader of the defense. Brandon Harris is also back and he showed some good potential.
- Nate Locke came on late. Between Locke, Harris, and Valdez, we have some proven LBs.
- We are a bit thin at LB - and we only recruited two. I know Eliano would like to run a 4-2-5, which does not require a ton of LB depth, but it requires excellent play by the LBs. I would call LB a position to watch, both this year and beyond. It has also been a few years since we've had a great LB corps.
- Here is X Factor number 2.
- The secondary was ... not good for most of the year. And now the best overall player, Will Watson, is gone. Watson missed the first half of the season and played very well the second half.
- The secondary put up good stats in the three late wins but let's not forget that all three of those opponents were missing some QBs. Akron was playing a freaking WR at QB who rallied the Zips to a tie, Kent was playing a freaking RB at QB, and Buffalo was playing their 2nd and even 3rd string QB against us.
- So while the secondary definitely played better in those three games and enjoyed a much-deserved confidence-building stretch, let's keep that good finish in some context.
- We do return Clint Stephens from injury. We definitely could have used him.
- Now I do have to give some credit. Bozeman and Milton played well down the stretch. There's talent there.
- Remember the 2010 defense (or have you tried to forget it like me)? And remember how with some years those players formed a historically strong unit? I can't help but see some BooBoo Gates in Bozeman.
- Point is, the success of the 2017 team will largely depend on the play of the secondary. If teams can bomb away on us for one third down conversion and one big play after another, we will have to rely upon big games from the offense to keep up.
- Joseph Davidson is a beast.
- We found a kicker. Jake Suder was rather reliable when the season ended.
- I couldn't tell you who will be returning punts and kicks. Zimmerman was the PR late in the season but I'd rather not see him out there again taking hits at full speed unless he gains some muscle weight.
- I ... feel ... pretty good about our Special Teams. At Bowling Green. That is a rarity
- Now here is the other X Factor. Again, more on this later.
- The good:
- The staff made good adjustments as the season went on. Passing game is struggling? Run it more. The next opponents do not pass well? Stack the box to stuff the run. The outside receivers are not getting the job done? Move an experienced and explosive inside receiver to the outside to give some speed.
- The team also clearly improved in pretty much every facet of the game as the season ended. You have to give credit to the coaching staff for the team's late rally. By all means, the team could have given up at 1-5, 1-6, and I would have given them a pass for giving up at 1-8, and yet they did not.
- They kept playing hard. And even in those early conference losses, they were in the games.
- The bad:
- None of the above in any way takes away from how incredibly unprepared the team was to start the season. The blowout loss to Ohio State was bad. We expected a bad loss, we got an embarrassing loss.
- The blowout loss to Memphis was unforgivable and Jinks and staff fully deserved all the grief they took from this board and also the rumors of major donors musing a buyout (really bad idea even considering the circumstances).
- Those adjustments I mentioned above? Every football smart person was yelling at them to make those simple adjustments. The fact that it took until game 10 to realize that our team could muscle up and run the ball behind that line against MAC defenses should tell a story.
- The recruiting:
- As far as I'm concerned, the team is currently on a four game win streak. This coaching staff just pulled one hell of a class. And they addressed so many needs. OL, DL, size and speed at receiver. Those were the three biggest needs I saw and they were all addressed..
- You have to give this staff a ton of credit in this regard. They are young and energetic. That formula worked miracles up in Kalamazoo. Fleck's staff could clearly also develop the players they recruited. If this coaching staff prepares and develops this team, we could be good.
- Those X factors? Here they are in order
- Coaching staff. For every good indicator of the level of this coaching staff, there is an indication of concern. I was skeptical when I saw that nearly every member of the coaching staff made a vertical move to this position. Was that because Jinks did not have a big professional network? Was the salary band too low? Maybe both? Point is, this coaching staff currently has the team on a four game winning streak if you count the incredible haul of recruits today. Maybe, just maybe, the learning curve was steep and now they are ready to compete for championships. Or maybe they were in over their head coaching games and they won some late games against weak teams. Hard telling. We've all seen head coaches who can recruit well but can't coach worth a damn. Ron Zook and Randy Edsall come to mind.
- Offensive Line. The line play led our team to late wins, powering the run game and allowing Morgan to simply hand the ball off instead of doing it all himself. Now we have to replace three excellent starters and we are drawing from largely unexperienced depth. Stephen Hamby did a great job coaching the line. Now he has to coach a bunch of new guys. If the line is at least workable, we should have a solid offense with the talent we have at the skill positions. If the line is good or even great - and with improved QB play - we will have an efficient and exciting offense.
- Secondary. I'm holding out hope here that the secondary grows as a unit and they build confidence from playing their best games of the season late. The whole defense is going to be a bit of a work in progress, but to me the secondary is the one unit that is in position for the most growth from last year.
It is hard telling how good we will be. For every sign pointing up, there is another reason for skepticism.
- There's not much to say about this past season that hasn't already been said. I've never felt worse about BG football than after the Memphis loss. My wife would tell you the same thing. So much of my autumn every year is following BG football. It is an escape from work and life and a way to reconnect with the university and the traditions I hold so dear. So when I say that loss was brutal, I mean it. The offense made mistakes early and then avalanched. They looked apathetic. The defense was never in it. As the season went on, I decided to not get so emotionally invested in the team because it was putting me in a foul mood. The wins late were nice and let me feel optimistic for the first time in a while.
- Bowling Green has a history of excellent college QBs. I believe James Morgan can develop into yet another great one.
- My way-too-far-out projections:
- At best, the team comes together and improves at all levels and we win a down MAC East.
- At worst, the offense is at best solid but not good enough to make up for a leaky defense and we struggle toward 6-6, give or take a game.
- Dare I tempt fate and say we can't possibly be worse than last year?
- My instinct is we are in the MAC east hunt but probably are a year away from a return to Detroit. We finish the season as a good team and are in anticipation for what could be an awesome 2018.
