TL;DR version
Miami is a solid team and reminds me a lot of our 2012 squad. We've got a physical opponent coming up next.
The series
- Miami is the only MAC opponent to lead the all-time series against BG
- BG wiped out Miami with an utter complete domination in 2005. Then the Miami Whammy hit hard in Brandon's final three years, including the infamous mud bowl.
- Clawson went 4-1 vs Miami, with the one loss against the eventual MAC champs in 2010. That game included the phantom interception in the fog which essentially gave the game to Miami. The 4 wins were mostly dominations.
- The teams did not play during the Babers era.
- Jinks opened his tenure in the rivalry with a loss. The team had a few minutes of utter collapse, including a kick return TD wiped out via penalty and a safety, and they never recovered.
- Five games in, Miami is averaging a bit over 3 a carry on almost 200 carries for 643 yards and 5 TDs. Not exactly consistent dominance.
- Our rush D is anything but dominant, allowing over 5 per carry, 1153 yards, and 13 rushing TDs.
- I'd have to look it up to confirm but I believe every team we've played had their best outing running the ball against us except for Akron, who had their best against a bad FCS team.
- As a team against CMU (Miami's only MAC opponent), they ran for 177 on 40 carries and 2 TDs in a dominant effort.
- The running game never really got going against Cincinnati, but they had decent days on the ground against both Notre Dame and Marshall, both losses.
- Discard the Cincinnati results and Miami averages 143 on the ground, 3.5 per carry.
- Miami splits their carries between two backs and the stats are pretty even.
- Alonzo Smith averages 4.5 per carry for 270 yards and no TDs.
- Kenny Young averages 4.3 per carry for 245 yards and 2 TDs.
- Smith is the bigger of the two.
- Both have come up with some breakout runs.
- Big offensive line. Although watching highlights, it doesn't seem they get that consistent dominance at the line of scrimmage.
- Our rush defense has struggled mightily. They'll be in for a challenge Saturday. Miami probably wants to grind it out on the ground.
Pass defense vs Miami
- QB Gus Ragland came in last year (I think off injury) and led Miami to 6 straight wins and a bowl game where they lost tight. He took care of the ball very well last year.
- That trend has somewhat continued this year. Low completion percentage (52%), decent yardage (1143), 10 TDs / 3 interceptions.
- He probably had his best FBS performance against Central Michigan. 11/19, 217 yards, 2 TDs, some long completions.
- In non conference play, he had to throw a lot. 30s/40s attempts per game against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Marshall.
- It looks to me like the coaching staff prefers the CMU plan where he is not being asked to do too much. The offense is not fast paced and relies mostly on the run. He just has to manage the game and not make the big mistake.
- If this sounds a lot like our 2012 game plan, it should.
- He's got a big play receiver with a big body. James Gardner at 6'4 216 has 21 receptions for 409 (almost 20 per catch) and 4 TDs. He has some long completions on the year. Good looking receiver.
- Behind Gardner, the next top receiver is a TE. Ryan Smith is a senior TE with 13 for 199 and 2 TDs. 6'4 265. He seems like an Alex Bayer type, which is always a QB's best friend.
- The third leading receiver is a possession type guy. Sam Martin, senior WR, 6'1 201. 10 for 146 and a TD.
- This is a veteran group of receivers. And a physical group. Our secondary has to be ready for some dogfights.
- Jefferies is out and our secondary is thin as is. Although having Clint Stephens back is nice. I'm hoping he steps up as a senior leader in the secondary, much like Will Watson did in the second half of last season.
- Quick note, Ragland has run some out of draws and other designed runs this year.
- Miami has given up 13 sacks on the year. And it's not like Notre Dame accounts for 8 of them or something - the sacks are spread through all the games.
- The way to stop this offense? Stuff the run and get to the QB. Don't let the run game make the pass game easy, and don't make the completions come easy.
Rush offense vs Miami
- Miami is a solid defense. They allow 161 rushing yards per game and have given up 6 rush TDs.
- Take away Notre Dame's 300+ rushing performance and you've got a defense that gives up under 120 rush yards per game and only 2 rush TDs, 3.5 per carry.
- The defense got Miami to a bowl game last year. It wasn't the dominant defense we had in 2012-13, but it was the next best I've seen since in the MAC.
- The defense has not improved all too much from last year, but there's still half a season to define themselves. Point is, our run game isn't exactly dominant and we're going up against a solid run defense.
- We rush for a hair over 100 per game. Of note is we came up with our best day by far on the ground against Akron - 181 and a TD, 4.4 per carry.
- Miami has 22 TFLs per game on the season.
- They've only recovered 3 fumbles on the season, two of which were against Austin Peay.
- This is a physical defense. Our offensive line will have their hands full.
- Miami runs a pretty traditional 4-3 defense. And they are fundamentally sound. This is a well coached group.
- No matter who plays at QB, we'll need a good run game.
Pass offense vs Miami
- First things first, I sincerely hope Doege is ready to go. Jinks sounded lukewarm on his chances. Doege presents a much greater threat in the pass game than Morgan.
- Miami allows 188 passing yards per game, 6 TDs against 6 interceptions, 55% completion rate. Solid numbers.
- That yardage average is skewed a bit low by playing Notre Dame, who was content running the ball, and Austin Peay, who is not very good.
- The other three opponents all hit the 200 mark, though only Marshall had a good percentage. Central Michigan barely completed 50% of passes for 228, 1 TD/2 interceptions.
- Our pass offense is averaging 238 per game on a low completion percentage, mostly due to Morgan's bad first few games.
- Doege is currently at 63.5%, which is still a little low for this offense but it is workable.
- Miami has at least one interception per game in every game but Notre Dame (3 TDs/0 interceptions). So the other opponents add up to 3 TDs/6 interceptions. That is a nice ratio.
- 6 different players have an interception. It looks like the entire secondary and a LB account for the picks. They spread the turnovers around.
- Whoever starts at QB: take care of the damn ball and we'll have a chance. Throw interceptions and we have no shot at this one.
- Miami has 5 sacks on the season and they're pretty well spread out among their games. We've given up 12.
- Interesting note, we actually have more sacks than Miami.
Special Teams vs Miami
- Their kicker is 6/7 but has missed 2 XP.
- We have a shot at kickoff returns. Our returns were pretty good against Akron. Miami gave up 2 KO return TDs vs Marshall.
- Punt return defense is solid. Only two opponents have even attempted a punt return.
Miami's schedule so far
- Miami is 2-3 (1-0)
- Miami lost a tight game to Marshall where they gave up those 2 kickoff return TDs. Otherwise Miami pretty well dominated Marshall, holding them to 59 rushing yards.
- Predictable win over Austin Peay.
- Close loss to Cincinnati. It looked like Miami had it 17-6. Cincinnati came up with a late TD pass and then an interception return TD to take the lead and win.
- Ragland did not have an overly great day and the UC defense stuffed the Miami rush offense, holding them to 70 yards.
- Miami beat CMU by three possessions. Ragland came up with 3 TD passes and the defense came up with stop after stop, including 2 interceptions.
- Notre Dame shellacked Miami last week, rushing for over 300. It was over quick, 28-7 after the first quarter and 45-14 at the half. Final score 52-17.
Miami vs Bowling Green
- At Yager Stadium. 2:30 kickoff, could be quite warm and possible rainy.
- Miami is favored significantly. No surprise there.
- Here's my big thought on Miami and Chuck Martin. Martin was hired right when Clawson won the MAC championship after building a team from the ashes.
- Both Miami and Eastern Michigan went out and found program builders as head coaches. Miami is closely following Clawson's template.
- Martin had to bring in a bunch of JuCos to add to his patchwork first team in 2014. That year aside, he's been building by recruiting and developing. The old fashioned way.
- He's favored building a dominant defense and a physical offense. It's not flashy but it's effective. Like our 2012 team.
- Now do note that while this Miami defense is good, they are still tiers below our 2012-13 defense. Those two years were the best MAC defenses I've ever seen. Hell, I've seen solid Big Ten defenses not as good as those two teams.
- Martin is very much a Clawson type. He's got a bunch of veterans on offense and a solid and deep defense. He's been building to this year and next.
- Almost the entire starting defense is juniors. And the overwhelming majority of the offense is juniors. If you're looking for the MAC champs in 2018, I think I know where I'm starting my search.
- Miami was my pick to win the east this year over Ohio for a reason. Even with no non-conference wins to proclaim, I'm still holding that prediction. The MAC East is down right now as the East's power program is down.
- If Miami does not win the east this year, they are an easy pick next year with all those juniors on the depth chart.
- If I'm calling the shots, I challenge their run defense by running the ball early.
- It is possible that Miami is still a little shellshocked after giving up so many yards and points to Notre Dame.
- I would try running it against them and see if they're still a bit bruised. Use a good run game to open up the pass game.
- Getting physically dominated one week can sometimes last into the next.
- On that note, they are healthy. No significant injuries to report right now that I am aware of.
- Whether it is a sore Doege or Morgan, our QB will need all the help he can get against this defense.
- Defensively, the focus should be stuffing the run and getting to the QB. I fear our secondary will be physically dominated by Miami's receiving corps, so plan around them.
- I think our best shot is by making Ragland beat us and not the ground game. He has a low completion percentage and often throws jump balls, trusting his receivers to win. Get in his face and those throws start favoring us.
- Of note is Miami has given up several fumbles - by Ragland, the running backs, and receivers.
- Where Miami's pass defense comes up with interceptions, we may be able to force some fumbles.
- Speaking of those interceptions. If Morgan starts, hopefully this will be the first game where he doesn't make that throw. You know, the one that comes at the worst possible time where he throws into coverage.
- We have a razor thin margin of error. Give them easy turnovers and we have no chance. Our defense is going to wear out against their physical offense so our offense has to be efficient.
- I'll just lay it out straight. I know a guy out here who went to Miami. We are putting a beer on the game. I told him we might as well settle up by Saturday because we both have an idea how this one is going to go.
- Prove me wrong, BG. Prove all of us wrong. Put together your best and most complete effort of the year and turn the MAC East on its head and get me a free beer and some bragging rights!
- Prove me wrong, BG. Prove all of us wrong. Put together your best and most complete effort of the year and turn the MAC East on its head and get me a free beer and some bragging rights!
Now that we've all spent plenty of time reading this preview, back to the griping.
