Closing thoughts / stats on 2017

[MarkL]

My final stat-filled post of the year. And for fairness, all stats are against MAC competition. No non-conf stats here. I'm comparing us against the conference, apples to apples.

Offense

• Honestly I'm pretty happy about the direction of the offense. There was progress made this year and most everybody returns next year. Here's the final stats against MAC competition:
  • Avg comp percentage: 0.574
  • Avg per attempt: 7.074
  • Avg per completion: 12.331
  • Avg per rush: 4.776
  • Avg rush yards per game: 186.875
  • Avg pass yards per game: 228.125
• Those stats are all healthy. Almost 200 rushing per game, over 200 passing, 4.7 per rush. The only concern is average completion percentage, and that number was better in the latter half of conference play when Doege played.
• The offensive line worked in a bunch of young guys. That will pay dividends. Additionally, clearly Doege is the future. Getting his feet wet this year will pay dividends down the road.
• The offensive gained rhythm as the year went on, and that was with a patchwork offensive line. If we can safely assume a healthy line will mean better results, the future is bright.
• As for losses. Losing Morgan will hurt us but I hope the transfer helps the young man. I am glad Doege played this year because it let Morgan know that he would need to look elsewhere for playing time. He's got a solid body, powerful arm, and now needs some coaching.
  • If you ask me, he would be a good fit in a Wisconsin style system where the QB throws less but gets to show off his arm strength when he does throw.
  • Additionally, if Morgan suddenly has an amazing season next year, I think I know what all of us will be saying.
• Losing Redding will hurt more than anybody thinks. He finally had a great season and if we had better QB play all year, he would have had an amazing season. As the year went on, that guy caught everything coming his way with circus grab after another.
• I suppose the next star receiver will be Guyton. Pough, Wilcox, and Morris all showed some potential, and of course Miller is a star.
• And Cleveland. That guy will be missed. But Clair is just going to get better and better.
• Really, not much more to say about offense. I am hopeful about the future. There are good young stars in place.

Defense

• If anybody knows where I can find a dead horse, I have some beating to do.
• Here's the numbers on defense - only in conference play:
  • Avg comp percentage: 0.543
  • Avg per attempt: 7.486
  • Avg per completion: 13.78
  • Avg per rush: 5.733
  • Avg rush yards per game: 258
  • Avg pass yards per game: 227.375
• Yikes. Allowing 250+ rushing yards per game, almost 6 per carry. You can't win giving up numbers like that.
• Now you may point out and rightfully so that we give up only 54% completions, which is 4th best in the conference. Sounds good, right?
• Well, partially. We can stop completions, but we give up one of the higher yards per completion. Our average pass yards per game surrendered is middle of the pack.
• But that rushing defense? Worst in the conference and not close. Worst yards per game surrendered on the ground, and worst in yards per carry.
• The only other MAC team to give up 5 yards per carry is Ball State at 5.5, and Ball State did not win a single conference game and wasn't even competitive, so they're not exactly a role model.
• As we all know, if you can't stop the run, you can't win because the other team controls the tempo of the game. Rush defense is generally an excellent success indicator.

But trust me, this is going to get worse.

• Here's a look at how each team did on offense against us compared against their average against other MAC defenses. (A stat of 1.00 means the opponent in whatever category did exactly their average against us, if that makes sense):
  • Avg comp percentage: 0.946
  • Avg per attempt: 0.967
  • Avg per completion: 1.04
  • Avg pass yards per game: 0.976
  • Avg per rush: 1.294
  • Avg rush yards per game: 1.516
• So our pass defense pretty much allowed opponents to do what they normally did, which nullifies the above positives about the pass defense. But our rush defense? Opponents could do whatever they wanted.
• Opponents ran for 130% their average on each carry and 152% their average yards per game. That means opponents truly relied upon the run to beat us because they knew they could run all day.
• We allowed more rushing TDs than anybody else. UT ran for 7 against us, which was the most rush TDs scored in any MAC game, and that includes a 7 OT game.
• The next highest amount of rush TDs scored in any MAC game was Ohio running for 5 against ... yes, us.
• 12 TDs surrendered in two games? That's more than several MAC teams gave up in 8 games.
• Hell, in the entirety of 16 regular season MAC games in 2012-13, we gave up fewer rush TDs.
• Yes, our defense is that bad. Statistically, bad. Eye check, bad. Missed tackles, poor fundamentals, no progress.
• I never blame the players. I fully blame the coaches for not doing what Jinks keeps preaching: putting players in the best position to win.
• Speaking of coaches, out-coached. Ohio and Eastern Michigan both had offensive game plans to set up a QB run and hit us when it mattered most. And both executed their plans to perfection. Both OCs outsmarted our DC.
• And another stat I just can't get out of my head. In the 5 MAC wins in 2 years of Jinks and Eliano at DC, all 5 were over teams playing a backup QB. We have yet to beat a team at full strength, and we have lost to teams with backup QBs.

But I'm not going to end on that note. I want to give a solid suggestion.

• First, if Jinks were to not be our head coach next year, I think we'd already either know it or have a sense it was coming. Jinks is returning. But the assistant coach carousel has not started turning yet.
• I would suggest replacing DC. Purdue had a dramatic turnaround on defense from last year to this year. A new DC can do wonders. I have a suitable replacement suggestion. Bear with me.
• The biggest issue I have with the coaching staff (besides the results) is the lack of veterans on staff. Kent State's OC is Don Treadwell, former Miami head coach, and Akron's defensive coordinator is Chuck Amato, NC State's former head coach.
• I bet there are other former head coaches on MAC staffs. We desperately need that kind of veteran experience.
• And seeing as Paul Haynes, like Jinks, was a first time head coach when he started at Kent, it was a wise move to hire Treadwell (yes I know it was a year or so later but still wise). Having that kind of experience at a high level assistant position is wise.
• So my suggestion is to hire Paul Haynes at DC. He's out of a job right now, he's got a ton of experience and success coaching defenses, he's got valuable experience at HC and can advise Jinks, and he has experience recruiting in Ohio. It makes a lot of sense.
• I would also suggest letting the new DC bring new position coaches of choice.

Special Teams

• A big problem I have with the coaching staff is a lack of individual player progression. Did Morgan improve from last year to this year? Did the defense improve from last year to this year?
• Well, leave STs out of that equation. STs were the bright spot on this team.
• Last year, there was no confidence in Suder at kicker, at least early in the season. He improved as the season went on. This year? 18/22 and should be 1st team All MAC. Mr. Reliable. Lots of progress there.
• And of course Joseph Davidson. What a weapon. He should be in the NFL next year.
• Losing those two will hurt. But with how much progress we saw on STs, I have confidence we'll be fine.
• STs made mistakes early - muffed punts to be precise - that played a significant role in an embarrassing loss to SD. Those mistakes weren't made again.
• As far as I'm concerned, our ST coordinator is the best coach we have.

Training

• I'm not the only one to share this concern. It seemed more often than not, other teams were stronger and more fit. I see three factors that could play in:
  • two different strength and conditioning coordinators in the last three years. Different philosophies = inconsitent results?
  • young guys need more time in the weight room
  • current strength program is not getting the job done
• Jury's out on this one. But I think all three are likely true. Point is, we won so big in 2012 and 2013 because we could physically dominate, and so big in 2015 because nobody could keep up. In 2017, the team was physically dominated and could not keep up.

Overall

• Year two, Jinks went 2-10. Now before anybody says "Clawson went 2-10 in year 2 so take it easy", let me explain why the situation in 2017 is vastly different from 2010.
  • Clawson inherited a complete trainwreck. The 2009 senior class was excellent. The sophomores and juniors were almost non-existent. So in 2010, Clawson started freshmen all over the place. Not because he wanted to start "his guys", but because there wasn't anybody else who was truly starter material there.
  • I like Brandon. He could coach a good game and he made a solid product more often than not. However, his last few years there was an unrealistic amount of attrition on the team, largely due to recruiting players who couldn't cut it with college responsibilities. So Brandon left behind a roster that had never competed in Detroit and was not built for such a run.
  • There is legit criticism that Babers took more than he gave to the program. A quote that I'll keep in mind was during Babers' final days. Someone on one of the college football coaching rumor sites said that Babers was looking to leave BG, even if the destination was sub-optimal. In other words, he didn't want to be around in 2016. Perhaps he knew a downturn was coming and he wanted to strike while the iron was hot.
  • Still, the fact is Jinks inherited a program that had won a lot, returned plenty, and had a winning mentality. Jinks did not inherit a trainwreck. So to compare 2010 to 2017 and extrapolate Clawson's run upon Jinks is unrealistic.
  • And also remember the following: Clawson was hired because he was a renowned program builder. Jinks was hired because he was from Texas Tech and they ran a similar offense to Babers. Nowhere in the equation do we see evidence that Jinks knows how to build.
• Barring anything highly unexpected like the way Dan Enos and Pete Lembo left their programs, Jinks will be back. I'm hit and miss on the decision.
• Hit
  • Stability might be nice
  • He recruits awfully well
• Miss
  • Is stability with the wrong guy better than instability with the right guys?
  • Little evidence of individual player development
  • The results so far

I have a stats CSV and I tried to attach it but the website refused CSVs. The sheet is a breakdown of all 12 MAC teams, all 8 MAC games. If anyone wants to do their own analysis and perhaps come to a different conclusion from me, let me know and I'll email it to you. I'm all ears for opposing thoughts and analysis.

[Schadenfreude]

my suggestion is to hire Paul Haynes at DC.

This crossed my mind, too. But I just don't know his track record well enough to know whether or not he is a great defensive coordinator. He doesn't have oodles of head coaching experience, and given Kent State's performance this year, it isn't clear to me that he can recruit.

But he does have a whole lot more Division I experience than Jinks. And he's available.

[Falconwriter]

Fact of the matter is this: BG's team this season tied the all-time mark for fewest wins by a BG football team in program history. If not for basically a fluke fumble return against Miami, they would have set the record for futility in the history of the program.

Next year, the offense should score a ton of points...but it probably won't matter because the defense is likely to give up even more -- and with the losses on special teams, it could add to the woes of teams scoring more points.

The BG-UT "rivalry" will officially change hands with next year's game as UT will beat BG for the (7th or 8th) time in a row (can't recall) and will officially take the lead in the series for the first time...ever? Not sure on that one. It's been a very sad decade for BG on that front, and it likely won't be getting better anytime soon.

As bad as Jinks has been, I don't see him leaving until his contract is up. Why would he? BG won't be buying him out and there isn't anyone out there, short of a small high school, that would be interested in hiring him, and I'm not sure even a high school would want him at this point. Harsh? Yes. But also accurate.

I'm glad the basketball program appears to be rising fast, because this football program is going to be the butt of jokes for the next couple years. Have a thick skin, my BG brethren. It will eventually cycle back...and hopefully it will happen in our lifetimes.

[gmartin]

Need to correct you on one thing Mark. Suder is a Jr. He will be back next year unless I missed where he is leaving the program.

[MarkL]

Ah, I had it in my mind Suder was a senior. My bad ... Thanks for the correction!

[MarkL]

If the AD wanted to buy out Jinks, they may be able to. Check out how Southern Miss dealt with a similar scenario a few years ago ... https://deadspin.com/5964003/to-buy-out ... 21-million

We host Maryland next year so this is feasible. But nobody I know has seen any indication any such move is coming. I think the decision is to let him build something before making a judgment. Old school logic is to give a coach five years to prove himself. If Duke basketball were as impatient way back when as current football programs, Coach K would have been let go after two or three bad seasons.

[Schadenfreude]

If the AD wanted to buy out Jinks, they may be able to. Check out how Southern Miss dealt with a similar scenario a few years ago ... https://deadspin.com/5964003/to-buy-out ... 21-million

We host Maryland next year so this is feasible.

If Moose thinks this is a good idea (and I doubt he would), there are plenty of ways that don't involve selling a home game back to Maryland. (And would the Fighting Turtles even deal? If memory serves, we still have one more trip to make to College Park, and plenty of good seats were available when Bowling Green thrashed Maryland in 2015.)

Moose could always postpone any particular home game and schedule another lucrative road trip. We have a home game against Eastern Kentucky this fall. Cancel it and find some place lucrative to send the team. And if there aren't any opportunities left to do that in 2018, then cancel or postpone Louisiana Tech in 2019 or Liberty in 2020.

The problem isn't a lack of opportunities to pick up more revenue, even if it would come at a cost to players and fans. The real issue is: If an extra $1 million shows up, there are almost certainly better ways to help the football program (or other programs!) rather than lighting it on fire by buying out a head coach after just two years.

Instability is part of the reason we are where we are right now. I want to see what Jinks can do next year. We've seen some signs of progress on offense and special teams. Let's save our money, promote stability, and see if improvement continues in 2018. I imagine that's what Moose is thinking, too.

We aren't that far away from competing in the East. Had Jarret Doege been healthy the whole game against Akron, it might have been a different story that night.

[jpfalcon09]

Without divulging names, I have it on good record that Jinks is not going anywhere for 2018. Mazey is a big supporter of athletics and I've been told she's talked to Jinks personally about shaking up his staff this Winter. The university doesn't have the money obviously but they also don't want there to be additional turnover in the program to warrant more depleted recruiting classes and further instability. They're going to give Jinks every opportunity to prove himself before looking elsewhere. Right or wrong, that's where we're at, so we'll see what happens.

Dave Clawson spoiled this fanbase. He recruited outstanding talent and had excellent coaches around him. Babers was able to take that talent and transition them into his style of play and cash in on it. Jinks is going to get the same opportunity Clawson had to get his guys in here and show what he can do.

[It's the Journey...]

Ah, I had it in my mind Suder was a senior. My bad ... Thanks for the correction!

Suder will not be back. He arrived at BG as a freshman in the fall of 2014. His eligibility clock started ticking at that point, not when he joined the team in 2015.

That is a huge hole to fill.

[mbenecke]

Suder is listed as a Redshirt Junior. I assume that 2014 counts as his redshirt year, and then he has used 3 more years. So he should get another, right?

[gmartin]

When Suder was given his scholarship he said it was a relief and mentioned he didn't have to worry about paying this year and next. He is listed on athletic website as Junior. I believe he will be back.