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The offseason is long. It is a bit over two months to kickoff, and I'm tired of not talking about football. So here we go, my annual early looks at our schedule and the remaining of the conference.

And first, my thoughts on our 2018 team. Nothing about coaching, nothing about the offseason, just what I am thinking about the 2018 Bowling Green Falcons.

• The offense has a ton of potential. Doege had a great freshman year, playing behind an inconsistent offensive line and playing consistently uphill. Andrew Clair came on to the scene in a huge way, frequently changing the dynamic of a game. And I've heard he is already looking better.
• The offensive line was good at times, though thin, especially down the stretch. There is good reason for optimism, between recruiting and the progression they made in 2016.
• We have lost three receivers in the offseason. One was a starter, one was expected to push for starting time, and one, who knows. If there's a weak point on offense, it is receiver.
  • There's only one truly proven great receiver - Miller. Behind him, there are guys who have played, but nobody who has broken through. There's young talent, so let's hope for some new stars to emerge.
  • Janarvis Pough was looked at briefly as a deep threat, though he never hooked up. Maybe that was a sign of things to come. Quintin Morris is a good guess for an emerging star. And it would be nice for Deric Phouthavong to finally become a downfield threat.
• Defense. I'm not going to re-litigate anything from 2017. We have a new defensive coordinator with a proven track record. We have talent. While I don't imagine a sudden jump to 2012-13 numbers, I fully expect significant strides.
• I don't know what kind of scheme Pelini plans to run. I suspect it will be some kind of attacking 4-3. Regardless, with upgrading size at DL and a lot of returning depth in the secondary, I like the possibilities.
• Big shoes to fill on special teams.
• All in all, we will be weaker at receiver and special teams. Every single other position, we should be better, perhaps a lot better. And that is a good reason to be excited.
• Considering how well some of the young guys are already playing, that is a positive indication to offset concerns at ST and WR. The upside is there. If the team comes together, the post season is a real possibility.

Oregon

• For quite a few years, there was about no safer bet nationwide than Oregon. They seemed guaranteed for a 10 win season every year.
• Now they are in their third coach in three years. It is odd to see this kind of instability. And some lower win seasons.
• Oregon won 7 games this past year. But note, 6 of those wins were under the original starting QB. With him around, that offense hummed. He got hurt and the season went with him.
• The defense jumped a good amount in 2017 under DC Jim Leavitt, who is sticking around for 2018. The defense has some retooling, but this is Oregon and their talent level is high.
• We likely will learn very little about our team in this game. I don't expect us to win, but I would love to see early improvements on our defense. But if the defense gets steamrolled, don't freak out. Oregon does that to everyone.
• The new coach is Mario Cristobal. He built up FIU from the ashes, just to be thanklessly fired, and has since been an assistant at Alabama and Oregon.
  • I at first felt like this was a "settling for a guy" hire. But the more I thought about it, the more I like it. Good head coaching experience, excellent recruiter, learned from the best.

Maryland

• I live in the greater DC region, so the second game of 2015 was an utter blast. My wife and I went to the game, stuck through the lightning delay, and watched with glee as the BG offense more than doubled the Maryland offense in an utter blowout win.
• Maryland opened the 2017 season by hanging 51 in a win over a decent Texas team with a great defense. And they lost their QB, never to see him or that explosive offense again.
  • Heck, they lost like four QBs during the 2017 season. It was as bad as 2012 when they started a linebacker at QB for a stretch due to injuries.
• DJ Durkin is recruiting well. In two years, no winning seasons or major wins outside of Texas. But unlike late in Edsall's run, Maryland is at least competitive more often than not.
• I wanted DJ Durkin when our job was open after 2013. His time as DC at Michigan showed why. I'm thinking Maryland has a nice season this year. They won't be in the Big Ten title race, but I think they're trending in the right direction, building depth and toughness.
• I want two things out of hosting Maryland. 1, a packed, loud Doyt for a night game. And 2, some good indications. I don't expect us to beat Maryland, I'd be thrilled if we do, but I would love to see steps by the defense. If we give up 50+ to Oregon, whatever, it's Oregon. If we give up under 30 to Maryland, get excited for 2018.

EKU

• Traditionally EKU is a FCS power. They are a bit down now, but we all know how quickly an FCS program can rise. The current coach has been recruiting well.
• They passed about twice as much as they ran, which could be either an indication of a good pass offense or a sputtering run offense. Or both.
• Good size on both lines.
• Honestly, it's hard to do much good research on FCS football. EKU fans, please fill me in!
• A solid win over EKU would go a long way toward some confidence in a new season.

Miami

• I thought Miami would have a great 2017. Yeah, that one didn't happen.
• I'm going to revisit a statement I wrote in the preview for Miami last year: Almost the entire starting defense is juniors. And the overwhelming majority of the offense is juniors. If you're looking for the MAC champs in 2018, I think I know where I'm starting my search.
  • Let's see if I was right about that a year out.
• Miami went winless in tight games last year. 0-5. That could be a bad sign about coaching.
  • Now there's a general rule in football. If you lose close games but return everybody, you win close games the next year. They went 5-7 last year. You can do the math for what was possible.
• Here's a fun stat. Miami's worst rush defense day last year was Notre Dame, where they gave up 8.5 yards per rush.
  • Second worst rush defense day? Bowling Green, at 6.7 yards per rush. (Yes they gave up more total yards to Ball State, but with more attempts and lower average).
  • Miami was Andrew Clair's coming out party. Hopefully our spread rush attack can do it again.
• Miami is not my pick to win the east. It wouldn't surprise me if they do, though. They have enough talent and depth on defense to make a push.
• A win here to start 1-0 in conference play would matter a lot. Miami could challenge for the east crown, so keeping them a game behind is a big deal.

Georgia Tech

• We all know what kind of offense Georgia Tech runs. So if/when they run for 300+ against us, don't freak out. That's what they do.
• Believe it or not, Georgia Tech actually passes the ball some. Problem is, the returning QB only hit 36% of his passes last year. So if by chance we can force them into 3rd and 5+, we're in good shape.
• Interesting thought. Pelini was the DC when Taylor Martinez was the QB. So every day in practice, his defense went up against a run heavy offense featuring a running QB.
  • Yes I know, that is not a triple option and the blocking scheme is far different, but I have to wonder if that kind of experience will give Pelini a leg up on prepping for the triple option.
• Georgia Tech has an odd tendency under Paul Johnson to be all over the place. 2009: ACC title. 2010-13: 7/8 wins per season.
  • 2014: 11 wins, top ten finish. 2015, 3 wins, 2016, 9 wins, 2017, 5 wins.
  • So in other words, I don't know what to expect this year.
• There is complete retooling on defense. It would be fun to get in a shootout with these guys.

UT

• Seriously, just get a freaking win already. I'm sick of losing winnable games to these guys. And we've lost loads of winnable games recently.
• While I love playing this rivalry mid season, the worst time to play a run heavy team is right after one other run heavy team. I hope our defense isn't still licking wounds after playing the chop blocking triple option in the Atlanta heat.
  • Note, UT will be coming off a road trip to Fresno State, a team that is on the rise and plays good physical football. UT could be licking some wounds too.
• Last year was the weakest MAC I have ever seen. Worse than 2005, worse than 2007, worse than any other year. So it is no surprise the "champion" went out and embarrassed themselves in a bowl game, getting shut out and blown out by a far superior Sun Belt opponent.
• Lots to replace. Top RB, QB, some O linemen, several on defense. And while there is good talent in the wings, at some point a nosedive always happens in the MAC.
• Their strength is the receivers. If a QB finds some rhythm and a RB and line get moving, the offense will still be potent.
• If our team improves as much as I'm hoping, this should be the year the streak ends. Seriously.

WMU

• It is hard to analyze Western. After the off-the-charts recruiting by PJ Fleck, WMU is and will be for the foreseeable future the most talented team in the conference.
• WMU regressed from 12 wins to 6. If it weren't for injuries, it could have been 8+.
• While WMU isn't my pick to win the west, it wouldn't stun me. The offense should be good, perhaps excellent.
• The defense will be a bit young, replacing most of the front seven. So we've got a good chance to establish a run game.
• WMU will be a good benchmark opponent. Similarly to us, they in recent history were champions and giant slayers. Similarly to us, they have regressed under a new coaching staff, and similarly to us, the talent is there to do well.

Ohio

• Ohio was the MAC's best team last year. And it wasn't even close. They were the only MAC team to win their bowl game, and it was a blowout. Meanwhile, the other MAC teams got embarrassed, one after another, with only NIU putting on any display of competence and justification for reaching the post-season.
  • Unfortunately they were Ohio and collapsed at an inconvenient time.
• Ohio's offense is going to be potent. That young QB Rourke provided a solid pass attack to balance out the run first offense, to which he contributed greatly as the MAC's best running QB.
• Defensively there is some replacement to do. OU is always good in that department.
• Two years ago, I said in this annual post that WMU had a good chance at 12-0. Well look at Ohio's schedule in 2018. Non conference games against Howard, Virginia, Cincinnati, and UMass. West games against NIU, Ball State, Western Michigan.
  • Beat WMU and NIU, have a strong showing at a very beatable UVA, and avoid an upset by a young and hungry Cincinnati team, and I kid you not when I say 12-0 is on the table.
  • Ohio is my pick to win the MAC east and the entire conference if you didn't notice.
• Ohio's biggest opponent this year will be Ohio. They have this very Ohio-tendency to collapse down the stretch.
• Obviously we lost to OU last year on the run attack. We actually defended the pass quite well. But we couldn't stop the run, and we couldn't hit the vertical pass.
• Best way to beat OU: improve on these two factors. A good outing against the run, a solid run game ourselves, and stretch out that defense, we can beat these guys in a shootout.
• Brutal start to MAC competition. If we come out of the first four with a good record and a win over Ohio, I like our chances to return to Detroit where we belong.

Kent State

• I love the hire Kent made. After Babers left, I was up for hiring Sean Lewis.
  • Now he's got a rough job ahead of him. His offense takes time to learn, and Kent has almost no offensive talent to work with, thanks to a prior clueless coaching staff.
  • I'll be honest. I can't name a single Kent State offensive player off the top of my head. And now they'll be running an offense which needs a fast thinking QB, 2 dominant outside receivers, 2 dominant inside receivers, receiver depth, speedy backs, and a lean and talented offensive line. Good luck.
  • I think every Kent fan will just be excited to have some kind of offensive pop. And considering what Paul Haynes did to Kent after the magical 12-0 season, I think fans will also be patient with Lewis.
• Normally, defense is Kent's relative strength. Now I remember writing in my preview last year that Kent has a young defense. So the new coaching staff inherits experience.
• If the defense can be decent to good, that will afford the young and learning offense some padding.
• We shut out Kent in 2015, nearly shut them out in 2016, and beat them comfortably in 2017. I would love to see our defense have an outstanding day as by this point in the season, they should be coming together under the new DC.
• Quick side note. Anybody besides me a bit surprised that Matt Johnson didn't join the coaching staff at Kent?

CMU

• CMU made the most head scratching hire back in 2010. They were coming off a run of several conference championships in a short period of time, coming off two successful head coaches, and they handed the reigns to who?
  • A position coach. Not a head coach or coordinator. A position coach. On the premise that he would be a good recruiter.
  • I have maintained for a long time that Enos was the worst coach in the MAC. I've never understood why they hired him, and he left for Arkansas as a coordinator right before being rightly and long past due fired.
  • The guy in one year flat-lined a championship program, then put a defibrillator to it via decent recruiting to a level several tiers below where they had been.
• Here's what I'm leading to. Coach Bonamego is going into his fourth year. He inherited a mess. And he has made CMU play tougher and better each year than at any time under Enos.
• That all said, expect CMU to drop some. There will be a lot of young faces on the offense, and some retooling on defense with new people all over the secondary.
• If I had to take a guess, I'd say CMU struggles to hit 6 wins, especially in a stronger MAC west than last year.
• The defensive front seven returns a good amount, though they lose some star power. If we can get a run game going against them, I feel very good about the pass against that new secondary.
• It has been eight years since the last game against CMU. That is too long. All in all, as long as we improve like I am expecting, I like our chances.
• A thought for a different day is scrapping the east/west divisions to avoid these long gaps. I can expand on how and why if anyone wants to hear it.

Akron

• When was the last time a team as weak as Akron won a conference division? Any conference division? Honestly, I'm not sure.
  • I know our team in 2014 was weak, mainly because of the defense. But I would take our 2014 team over Akron in 2017. They were bad.
• Akron is the game where Doege was injured. I have to think had he stayed healthy, we would have won that game, handing the MAC East and therefore the MAC most likely to Ohio.
• The bad news for Akron is they replace a significant amount of their offense. The good news is their offense was not good most of the time anyway.
• The defense was Akron's "strength" last year. They return most everyone.
• Here's the thing. Akron was lucky enough to face us when we were down and lucky enough to hurt our QB on a trick play. Then they were lucky enough to play WMU, exhausted after a 7 OT game. Then they were lucky enough to play Ohio in meltdown mode.
  • Point is, Akron had no business being in the post season last year. Luck only lasts so long.
• I'm expecting Akron to take a step back. It would feel normal to go back to beating them.

Buffalo

• I'm not shocked one bit that Buffalo had a coming out party last year. Lance Leipold is a fantastic coach, in his third year, taking over a team with little depth.
• It was just a matter of time until things started working. And work they did, with Buffalo finding a solid QB and a star receiver, both of which return.
• Anthony Johnson is the star receiver. He bailed his QB out of a bunch of situations all season long, winning matchups consistently on the outside.
  • He plays a lot like a beefier Roger Lewis. Just one guy changed the dynamic of the offense, giving UB a deep threat to allow the short offense to work.
• The defense made a huge leap in 2017. In 2016, they gave up big plays all day. Even our struggling offense in 2016 had a good day against UB.
• They improved in all facets of the defense, stopping the run more effectively and avoiding giving up chunks of yards.
• I don't think Buffalo is going to win the east this year. But if Ohio falls, Buffalo is solidly in competition with Miami and hopefully us.
• This is another one of those teams where beating them again will just feel normal.
• With Ohio stacked for a running the table season, Miami returning most everyone, and Buffalo coming off a good season, the MAC east is a much tougher place than recent years. Add to that, Kent making an excellent hire that will pay off with time. The outlook for the MAC east is good.

And for the rest of the MAC:
Northern Illinois

• My pick to win the west. NIU was a great team for most of last year.
• We faced them with two losses if I remember correctly, and both of those losses (Boston College and SDSU) were winnable. And of course they beat Nebraska (another program who hired a real head scratcher).
• They collapsed down the stretch, which is a shame considering what they had going on.
• NIU found a new Jordan Lynch-type of QB. Decent passer, excellent running threat, big, physical body.
• The defense roared last year, at one point nearly leading the nation in fewest yards per carry. Then Andrew Clair hit them hard.
  • We ran for more ypc against NIU than anyone else last year. And second most yards (first was Duke in the bowl).
• NIU returns everything they need for another run at Detroit. It would just feel right for them to play in the championship game.
• That non-conference schedule - Utah, Iowa, Florida State, BYU. Give credit for scheduling a tough one! That sounds like our 2015 championship schedule and similar to this year's schedule.

Eastern Michigan

• Eastern was a feel good story in 2016, making it to a bowl, but it was a bit of a mirage. They had some close game luck, but still great progress.
  • 2017 was a step back, but also a bit of a mirage, losing close game after close game against bowl teams.
• Now they have to replace basically the entire passing offense, though enough of the rest of the team returns intact to be exciting.
• EMU was on the cusp last year of knocking off NIU, UT, and Kentucky. If the breaks go their way this year, EMU could win the west. That's crazy talk but possible.
• I've long been impressed with the Chris Creighton hire. I've called him a Clawson-like coach, and I'd have been happy if he were the guy to replace Clawson. He is doing great work at a tough place, building a program the Clawson way - no shortcuts.

Ball State

• I honestly have nothing on these guys. Haven't watched them since we last played in 2015.
• All I really know is they are in major building mode. They went winless in MAC play last year, were rarely competitive, and had injuries nearly every week to a thin roster.
• Any positivity would be a good thing.

And an announcement. This will probably be the last "long" post from me for a while. I have long enjoyed my game previews, doing all the statistical research, watching MAC games and highlighting key players and moments, analyzing, predicting, and publishing here. It is a great way to keep in touch with my beloved Falcon football.
That said, time is no longer a thing come this fall. Why? A new Falcon is landing in the household!
Right around the week one kickoff against Oregon, my wife and I are expecting our first child. We are getting EVERYTHING in order for this major life change. And change will have to come.
So instead of researching stats and writing previews, I will be changing diapers and changing diapers. This has been a long time coming, and we are ready for our little bundle of joy.
I'll still lurk around here plenty. Just don't expect my standard weekly stat-filled previews. I've got a bigger job on my hands!

Any thoughts on the 2018 schedule? Expectations for the team?

Thanks for the thorough preview, Mark. It's always a good way to kickstart getting into the pigskin mindset. I'm hoping we can take a step forward this year and things finally start coming together, but like I was last year at this point, I just don't know what we're going to see.

Congrats on the pending arrival, no doubt to be delivered by a Falcon, rather than a stork.

I will assume the baby room as already been painted in the appropriate burnt orange and seal brown colors and Freddie and Frieda are firmly atop the short list of possible names.

I suspect you are right about our receivers, sadly. Based on the football I saw last year, I think Pough has a lot of potential; I could see him breaking out this year.

Phouthavong seems to have gotten plenty of chances at this point. I hope he can find another level.

Beaker wrote:Thanks for the thorough preview, Mark. It's always a good way to kickstart getting into the pigskin mindset. I'm hoping we can take a step forward this year and things finally start coming together, but like I was last year at this point, I just don't know what we're going to see.

Congrats on the pending arrival, no doubt to be delivered by a Falcon, rather than a stork.

I will assume the baby room as already been painted in the appropriate burnt orange and seal brown colors and Freddie and Frieda are firmly atop the short list of possible names.

The name Frieda was rejected. But I'm sure we'll come up with a good name.

Great preview! Just one minor thing...

MarkL wrote: Kent State

• I love the hire Kent made. After Babers left, I was up for hiring Sean Lewis.
  • ...
  • Quick side note. Anybody besides me a bit surprised that Matt Johnson didn't join the coaching staff at Kent?

If I'm not mistaken, Matt Johnson IS on the KSU coaching staff. He's a quality control coach or something similar.

threestooges wrote:Great preview! Just one minor thing...

MarkL wrote: Kent State

• I love the hire Kent made. After Babers left, I was up for hiring Sean Lewis.
  • ...
  • Quick side note. Anybody besides me a bit surprised that Matt Johnson didn't join the coaching staff at Kent?

If I'm not mistaken, Matt Johnson IS on the KSU coaching staff. He's a quality control coach or something similar.

I just saw that myself. Good catch! I looked him up and saw only Syracuse references.

As always Mark, awesome write ups and congrats on the newest Falcon coming in Sept! I will be in Eugene as my BIL and his family live 10 mi from Autzen and am pumped for that game, no matter what happens. My previous longest roadie was the Swamp in 2012.

I think we have the potential to win 6-7 games...maybe 8 if the D becomes a decent unit. Oregon and Ga Tech will be very tough tests but I like our chances against MD and EKU. And you are absolutely right...this MUST be the year we beat tsun (I've said that too many years in a row). They have major holes to fill and coming off a bad bowl loss. Ohio will be the fave in the East but my dark horse is Buffalo. NIU *should* win the West with everyone else behind.

IF our D can be a stable unit...doesn't need to be a brick wall (although I would love to see a D like we had in 2012-13). If it is decent, we will be a major player in the East. I think our Oline will have much more depth and exp and the O should be able to move the ball and score. I really like the group we have on the Oline. Keep Doege healthy and look out. Jarret has taken ownership of the team and only a SO. The WR unit is def a ? now but hopefully, guys step up. Trying to replace Big Joe D is impossible although Grant Tinnerman is 6'5". Lol. Matt Naranjo is another Punter on the roster. Nate Needham is the only kicker on the website roster so I really have no idea what to expect there.

All in all, we *should* be better as this is Coach Jinks' best team to date. Playmakers on O, a decent D and steady ST's is my wish. You're right about the games against OR and GA Tech. IF we get rolled, I won't like it but also won't freak out (How does the Freak not freak out?). That isn't our season. BEATING tsun, the one down I-75 and competing for a MAC title are what matters. The series with tsun is tied at 39 wins each and they haven't led the series since 1957. Don't let it happen...those aholes put "8 straight" on the side of their MAC title rings. It's way past time to end this streak.

Finally, Coach Pelini...the guy brings in a ton of experience and I like how he filled out his D staff. Just that experience alone is worth so much. Eliano didn't have a clue at this level. It should help Coach Jinks as well.

Only 68 days til kickoff in Eugene. GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!

Excellent write-up Mark, and congrats on the addition to the family!

I'll keep my thoughts succinct. Expectations this year need to be tempered. The out of conference schedule will likely yield three losses unless we get a repeat of the ND game from last year. In MAC play, I feel like the East is wide open but the usual suspects will be at the top of the West. Don't see BG beating NIU and Toledo again. Buffalo and Ohio will be tough, Kent and Miami are big question marks and Akron should be down.

I'm going with a 5-6 win season. Offense will be better but there will still be growing pains on D. Is it enough progress for Jinks to keep his job? I'd put it at a 50/50 chance. This is the non-orange glasses viewpoint.

jpfalcon09 wrote:Is it enough progress for Jinks to keep his job? I'd put it at a 50/50 chance.

I'd put it at 98%. Isn't this the third year of a six-year contract? Unless he does something really stupid off the field, he will be fine.

I honestly don't know what we are going to get this year. I'd love to get back to .500, but we have so many junior college players coming in that it's hard to know how all this shakes out.

Schadenfreude wrote:

jpfalcon09 wrote:Is it enough progress for Jinks to keep his job? I'd put it at a 50/50 chance.

I'd put it at 98%. Isn't this the third year of a six-year contract? Unless he does something really stupid off the field, he will be fine.

I honestly don't know what we are going to get this year. I'd love to get back to .500, but we have so many junior college players coming in that it's hard to know how all this shakes out.

The number of JC players coming in this year makes me think Jinks feels the urgency to win now. So if I had to read the tea leaves between he's totally safe and he's out the door with another losing season, I'm thinking the latter. A feeling of urgency may be a good thing. I think the pieces are in place for a winning season and title contention provided no major injuries in non conference play so hopefully it won't be a question needed to be answered.

MarkL wrote:The number of JC players coming in this year makes me think Jinks feels the urgency to win now.

True. I'm definitely surprised to see so many.

Here is Athlon's preview...it's not too pretty.

https://athlonsports.com/college-footba ... prediction" target="_blank