vs. Western Michigan (11/2)

[jpfalcon09]

Broncos (3-5, 2-2) enter this game following a win in Oxford against a Miami team which saw Brett Gabbert return. Played out very similar to BG's game with Miami, and the Broncos ended the Redhawks 16-game home winning streak by way of a 16-10 victory. Starting QB Jack Salopek is injured so freshman Treyson Bourguet got the start and had a rather uneventful day, but managed to protect the football well. Junior Sean Tyler is their feature back and he has carried for 529 yards on 121 carries. Junior WR Corey Crooms leads the receiving core with 35 receptions for 469 yards and 4 TDs.

Defensively the Broncos are giving up 375 yards per game and have surrendered 31.5 PPG against FBS competition. Senior LB Corvin Moment is coming off a career game against Miami which saw him record 3.5 sacks, increasing his total to 6.5 on the year which is tied for 23rd most in the country. Much like Miami they're a pretty physical bunch up front and have been decent against the run for most of the season. They are -3 on turnover margin for the year.

Some BGSU stats of note:
DE Karl Brooks is tied for the NCAA lead in sacks with 7.5
Falcons are tied for 21st with a +6 turnover margin and are #2 in fumble recoveries
BG does not have a single player within the top 100 in rushing or receiving yards

My advanced stats list BG as a 7-point favorite with a 71% likelihood of winning. It is the last game BG is favored to win this season according to my metrics.

[mbenecke]

Need this one badly.

Let's control what we can control, get to 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, and let the chips fall where they may over the final 3 games.

[Schadenfreude]

This is a big game. We need to win this one. Vegas has us as an 8.5-point favorite. I don't know if I feel *that* good about our chances, but this is the most winnable game we have left.

If the Falcons can stop committing stupid penalties, they would really be a force.

I'd really like to see us in a bowl game for a chance. That road to a bowl game includes a win here.

[jpfalcon09]

This is a big game. We need to win this one. Vegas has us as an 8.5-point favorite. I don't know if I feel *that* good about our chances, but this is the most winnable game we have left.

If the Falcons can stop committing stupid penalties, they would really be a force.

I'd really like to see us in a bowl game for a chance. That road to a bowl game includes a win here.

This is probably the worst team WMU has had since 2014 when they went 0-12. Both QBs are super young and they struggle to move the ball consistently (sound familiar?). Tim Lester is pretty much calling the plays now after Jeff Thorne endured a lot of criticism for how the offense was performing. We all know how these games can go though and I hope the extra few days off doesn't dull the edge the Falcons have shown the last couple weeks.

Big plus too, checked the forecast and early returns are showing a high near 70 with a light breeze. Can't ask for much better in early November.

[Schadenfreude]

This is probably the worst team WMU has had since 2014 when they went 0-12. Both QBs are super young and they struggle to move the ball consistently (sound familiar?). Tim Lester is pretty much calling the plays now after Jeff Thorne endured a lot of criticism for how the offense was performing.

I get the feeling that our defense could again be suffocating. It would sure be nice if our offense would finally start firing on all cylinders. We have the personnel. McDonald has come into his own. But penalties killed so many promising drives last week.

[Flipper]

Buffalo controls their own destiny...we do not. Therefore...every game is a must win. Play with that intensity and who knows what can happen?

[fanatic13]

I didn't get to comment on the thread last week but I got to the game early and the team had a lot of energy pre game. It was controlled and they seemed like they were on a mission to win. First two drives showed that. Haven't been to a game that early since 2016 but it was nice to see the positive momentum. Not sure if that's been the usual the past few years but we need it to continue. Let's get control early and keep it for 60 minutes again

[roguewarrior]

So this was my prediction on April 16 - Key Games thread:

“IF …IF….. we are in the mix for a run or a bowl game, the Wednesday Night game V. Western Michigan will decide our season. So let it be written.”

[kdog27]

Losing this one would definitely kill a lot of momentum. Can’t even think of the last time this program had the potential of a winning streak.

[mbenecke]

Losing this one would definitely kill a lot of momentum. Can’t even think of the last time this program had the potential of a winning streak.

Serious question - does 2 in a row not count as a streak?

[BillyLP]

Losing this one would definitely kill a lot of momentum. Can’t even think of the last time this program had the potential of a winning streak.

Serious question - does 2 in a row not count as a streak?

According to the great, great film Major League: "We won a game yesterday. If we win today, it's called "two in a row". And if we win again tomorrow, it's called a "winning streak."

[fanatic13]

Losing this one would definitely kill a lot of momentum. Can’t even think of the last time this program had the potential of a winning streak.

Serious question - does 2 in a row not count as a streak?

According to the great, great film Major League: "We won a game yesterday. If we win today, it's called "two in a row". And if we win again tomorrow, it's called a "winning streak."

"It has happened before"

[jpfalcon09]

[BillyLP]

I have trouble coming around to the fact that BG should be a favorite here. I still think the path to victory against WMU is an uphill climb.

[jpfalcon09]

I have trouble coming around to the fact that BG should be a favorite here. I still think the path to victory against WMU is an uphill climb.

1. Falcons are home.
2. BG is slightly generating more opportunities to score per possession (explosiveness).
3. BG is top 30 defensively on 1st and 2nd down (26th).
4. WMU likely starting a true freshman for the second game in a row.

By no means is it going to be a cakewalk. This will probably be like the Miami game, low scoring and whoever can run the ball the best probably wins.

Also of note that WMU RB La'Darius Jefferson will not play due to suspension.