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Where do we head?
Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:20 am
by hammb
We've all stood by and watched as the conference re-alignments, the mega TV deals, and NIL/Transfer portal have gutted the landscape of MAC football. We've known for a long time that we cannot compete in what is currently set up as FBS football.
Now the differences between us and the P5 (or P2+ whatever the eff they are now), are going to really bring down the house. Since those schools made so much money off their athletes it looks like the NCAA will be instituting revenue sharing plans with student athletes that increases scholarship limits...to a full 105 for football.
Neverminding the fact that MAC (and many other G5) schools can ill afford to add 20 football scholarships (along with the requisite women's scholarships for Title IX), the talent pool is going to continue to deteriorate. The declining HS participation of the sport has already been felt in this conference. The talent level isn't what it used to be and the quality of play has gone down with it. Now all the teams that can afford it (any P5 for sure) are going to add an additional 20 scholarships to their pool?
I don't know what the end game is here. We don't have revenue streams to distribute. Our revenue stream is student fees. Sure, we can easily keep our own limits at 85, but the quality of our talent pool is going to drop even further. It's been debatable for awhile, but this change cements the hard fast truth that we do not belong in D1 FBS, but the question is where do we belong. FCS seems cute, but do the cost savings offset the revenue losses?
I don't have a clue what the path forward is...maybe we keep our expenses the same, stay FBS, and just know that we're in a different world so on field is what it is. Just seems like the gulf between them and us keeps widening, and at least for me it's gutted any care I had for the football played in the MAC. It's fun to root for David vs Goliath. It's not fun to be rooting for the bug that David stepped on in his way to the battle with Goliath.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2024 10:17 am
by pdt1081
Every sport is seeing the increase in scholarships. With the watered down bowl schedule, and the cost to walk near the big boy table, let alone have a seat, it's only a matter of time before Athletic Departments exercise a bit of financial responsibility. Drastic changes are coming, it's just a matter of who leads and who has to try catching up.
Does 85 total scholarships cover the increase in every other sport combined?
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2024 10:57 am
by Flipper
I've been saying this for what feels like a decade...what we are attempting to do isn't sustainable. It was difficult to continue the illusion that we were participating in college football at the D1 FBS level before. With the portal and NIL and every other decision being made around us re conference realignment and scholarships...well, we're screwed.
We had some nice moments in the 2000's and 2010's, but those days are gone. I do not know what the answer is. I do tend to think that hockey, baseball and basketball (men and women) are still sports we can compete at at a higher level...football...not so much.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2024 3:12 pm
by jpfalcon09
Flipper wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 10:57 am
I've been saying this for what feels like a decade...what we are attempting to do isn't sustainable. It was difficult to continue the illusion that we were participating in college football at the D1 FBS level before. With the portal and NIL and every other decision being made around us re conference realignment and scholarships...well, we're screwed.
We had some nice moments in the 2000's and 2010's, but those days are gone. I do not know what the answer is. I do tend to think that hockey, baseball and basketball (men and women) are still sports we can compete at at a higher level...football...not so much.
Did house GA Tech in their backyard last year. That was fun.
No doubt we're rapidly approaching Power 2 autonomy and the consolidation of talent amongst the major players. You have administrators and coaches at some of the power brokers advocating for roster sizes of 140. They're screaming the need of depth for injuries and what not, but I firmly believe it's to hoard talent away from everyone else and effectively kill the sport as we know it.
Most of the MAC and G5 will simply play along until they no longer are able because they don't know any better. Then the commissioners will cry foul and throw their arms in the air when it all crumbles, saying they never saw it coming.
The next media rights deal will likely determine the long-term hopes of the conference.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:22 pm
by hammb
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 3:12 pm
Flipper wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 10:57 am
I've been saying this for what feels like a decade...what we are attempting to do isn't sustainable. It was difficult to continue the illusion that we were participating in college football at the D1 FBS level before. With the portal and NIL and every other decision being made around us re conference realignment and scholarships...well, we're screwed.
We had some nice moments in the 2000's and 2010's, but those days are gone. I do not know what the answer is. I do tend to think that hockey, baseball and basketball (men and women) are still sports we can compete at at a higher level...football...not so much.
Did house GA Tech in their backyard last year. That was fun.
No doubt we're rapidly approaching Power 2 autonomy and the consolidation of talent amongst the major players. You have administrators and coaches at some of the power brokers advocating for roster sizes of 140. They're screaming the need of depth for injuries and what not, but I firmly believe it's to hoard talent away from everyone else and effectively kill the sport as we know it.
Most of the MAC and G5 will simply play along until they no longer are able because they don't know any better. Then the commissioners will cry foul and throw their arms in the air when it all crumbles, saying they never saw it coming.
The next media rights deal will likely determine the long-term hopes of the conference.
If the next media rights deal for the MAC increases the payout by anything more than inflation I'll be shocked. ESPN has lost money hand over fist for a long time now...they're trying to get out of these sorts of contracts as much as in them. And while we're seeing massive paydays to all sports that actually drive viewers (NFL, NBA, Major college conferences), I doubt very seriously if we will see a similar uptick in revenue. MACtion games on ESPN have never drawn enough viewership to justify what they paid us. No way in hell MAC sports are driving any amount of subscribers to ESPN+.
I will say that they have a pretty sweetheart deal in having the schools foot the entirety of the production costs so they're gaining content for only the price of the rights, which is good, but I still doubt they're anxious to increase that in any meaningful way.
Hoops, Hockey, etc and do whatever they do, but I think the time is rapidly approaching for MAC football to start approaching itself like college football started. Know going in that it's not a revenue stream, but an expense. It's an expense that does have value for campus camaraderie, an identity, bring back alumni, etc; but in no way is it justifiable to hand out 100 scholarships and pay millions of dollars on coaching. I have no idea where that mindset would place us in the current/future landscape of the sport, but it's sure as hell not D1 FBS.
The motivation and the end game here is quite clear. The haves of college football are going to run the sport to ensure their cash cow doesn't go away and in doing so want to make sure they maximize the revenue going to them. Much like capitalism in America it's all about crushing the competition to ensure they make the most money, regardless of what that does to the landscape of the sport as a whole. I don't think they truly "NEED" the G5 to stick around, even though they do like having us around for our yearly beatdowns. I think they [rightfully] know that for awhile enough programs will stick around and try to hold on that they can survive quite easily a reduction of FBS schools. And maybe there always WILL be a 2nd/3rd tier of conference that can afford to stay afloat, but not be part of the Big2; but that isn't likely to be the MAC. Our financial realities are starkly different than even the Mountain West and Sunbelt, let alone the SEC.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2024 9:06 am
by Globetrotter
This is certainly a fascinating time. I have thoughts that are not formulated completely but I will share.
-One way to stand out is that we have fewer scholarships. Players don't tend to think this way but creating a climate where you aren't the 10th RB on a power 5 and acknowledging that you will more than likely get an opportunity to show your skills and then be more likely to get a chance to play pro football. On the face of it 105 scholarships seems great. For many/most players that just means more chance to get lost in the mix.
-The end game seems pretty obvious, you form a middle group that isn't P5 and isn't FCS and you create a super fun tournament at the end of the year. OR you just join FCS which is super fun already. I watched a ton of it last year when I assumed that we were firing our coach and there are teams that have way more of a following than we do. No matter what the goal should not be to get to 105 scholarships. We should be having conversations with the majority of the MAC and a lot of the Sun Belt and Conference USA and Mountain West and AAC. We need real leadership.
-There are tons and tons of streaming services at this time. I don't think we need to leave ESPN but if we do I am certain we can find another contract . I do assume we just stay with ESPN though. That's where I watched a bunch of FCS games.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:49 pm
by Schadenfreude
hammb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:20 am
We've known for a long time that we cannot compete in what is currently set up as FBS football.
No, we do not know this. Ask Georgia Tech or Minnesota.
I don't have a clue what the path forward is...
We've been in the MAC for 72 years. That's the path forward.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:57 pm
by jpfalcon09
hammb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:22 pm
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 3:12 pm
Flipper wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 10:57 am
I've been saying this for what feels like a decade...what we are attempting to do isn't sustainable. It was difficult to continue the illusion that we were participating in college football at the D1 FBS level before. With the portal and NIL and every other decision being made around us re conference realignment and scholarships...well, we're screwed.
We had some nice moments in the 2000's and 2010's, but those days are gone. I do not know what the answer is. I do tend to think that hockey, baseball and basketball (men and women) are still sports we can compete at at a higher level...football...not so much.
Did house GA Tech in their backyard last year. That was fun.
No doubt we're rapidly approaching Power 2 autonomy and the consolidation of talent amongst the major players. You have administrators and coaches at some of the power brokers advocating for roster sizes of 140. They're screaming the need of depth for injuries and what not, but I firmly believe it's to hoard talent away from everyone else and effectively kill the sport as we know it.
Most of the MAC and G5 will simply play along until they no longer are able because they don't know any better. Then the commissioners will cry foul and throw their arms in the air when it all crumbles, saying they never saw it coming.
The next media rights deal will likely determine the long-term hopes of the conference.
If the next media rights deal for the MAC increases the payout by anything more than inflation I'll be shocked. ESPN has lost money hand over fist for a long time now...they're trying to get out of these sorts of contracts as much as in them. And while we're seeing massive paydays to all sports that actually drive viewers (NFL, NBA, Major college conferences), I doubt very seriously if we will see a similar uptick in revenue. MACtion games on ESPN have never drawn enough viewership to justify what they paid us. No way in hell MAC sports are driving any amount of subscribers to ESPN+.
I will say that they have a pretty sweetheart deal in having the schools foot the entirety of the production costs so they're gaining content for only the price of the rights, which is good, but I still doubt they're anxious to increase that in any meaningful way.
Hoops, Hockey, etc and do whatever they do, but I think the time is rapidly approaching for MAC football to start approaching itself like college football started. Know going in that it's not a revenue stream, but an expense. It's an expense that does have value for campus camaraderie, an identity, bring back alumni, etc; but in no way is it justifiable to hand out 100 scholarships and pay millions of dollars on coaching. I have no idea where that mindset would place us in the current/future landscape of the sport, but it's sure as hell not D1 FBS.
The motivation and the end game here is quite clear. The haves of college football are going to run the sport to ensure their cash cow doesn't go away and in doing so want to make sure they maximize the revenue going to them. Much like capitalism in America it's all about crushing the competition to ensure they make the most money, regardless of what that does to the landscape of the sport as a whole. I don't think they truly "NEED" the G5 to stick around, even though they do like having us around for our yearly beatdowns. I think they [rightfully] know that for awhile enough programs will stick around and try to hold on that they can survive quite easily a reduction of FBS schools. And maybe there always WILL be a 2nd/3rd tier of conference that can afford to stay afloat, but not be part of the Big2; but that isn't likely to be the MAC. Our financial realities are starkly different than even the Mountain West and Sunbelt, let alone the SEC.
The P4 will keep the G5 around as long as it makes sense financially, which it does currently. Pay the smaller school a couple million bucks, while they fill 80,000+ stadiums to capacity, rake in copious amounts of cash with ticket sales, parking, merch sales, and concessions, and go along their merry way. It's really the only lifeline the smaller conferences have at the moment. With the recent playoff expansion, I can see that all going away however as some schools may be worth taking the risk of playing an all-P4 schedule and still sneak into the playoff with a couple losses.
We've all known the model has been unsustainable for years. Bannon, NIL & conference realignment have pushed the ball closer to the endzone of G5 elimination.
Speaking of which, saw today that Miami & Cincinnati are ending their annual game. I'm sure because UC sees it as a threat to their playoff hopes.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2024 5:45 pm
by Falconfreak90
" Miami & Cincinnati are ending their annual game". What a shame...IIRC, the longest continuous rivalry east of the MS River. Or it was...
I love BG Football and the MAC. But it's been clear for a long time we aren't wanted in the FBS. Beating the Power 5 is always great but maybe we should do like my dad's been saying for years. Drop down a level and play for a real national title. Not some bullshit Money playoff stuff, which we don't have a prayer of ever winning....ever. The powers that be simply won't allow it.
I don't have the answer...But I absolutely love the MAC.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2024 8:35 pm
by pdt1081
Schadenfreude wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:49 pm
We've been in the MAC for 72 years. That's the path forward.
Need to take care of the University's needs first. If the MAC wants to do something different, so be it.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:06 pm
by Flipper
Schadenfreude wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:49 pm
hammb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:20 am
We've known for a long time that we cannot compete in what is currently set up as FBS football.
No, we do not know this. Ask Georgia Tech or Minnesota.
I don't have a clue what the path forward is...
We've been in the MAC for 72 years. That's the path forward.
With respect to FBS football...GA Tech and MInnesota are just about as irrelevant as the MAC .
Mystified as to what "path forward" the MAC offers as we have no real influence on the direction of the sport/business
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:42 pm
by BillyLP
Flipper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:06 pm
Schadenfreude wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:49 pm
hammb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:20 am
We've known for a long time that we cannot compete in what is currently set up as FBS football.
No, we do not know this. Ask Georgia Tech or Minnesota.
I don't have a clue what the path forward is...
We've been in the MAC for 72 years. That's the path forward.
With respect to FBS football...GA Tech and MInnesota are just about as irrelevant as the MAC .
Mystified as to what "path forward" the MAC offers as we have no real influence on the direction of the sport/business
I think there’s a small, but non-zero chance that the division of college football ends up creating more of a demand for BG’s level of competition as the top level becomes more and more akin to a professional sports league. We are years away from it, but at some point, the accessibility of mid-major football will start drawing in more folks.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Sun Jul 28, 2024 11:42 am
by hammb
Flipper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:06 pm
Schadenfreude wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:49 pm
hammb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:20 am
We've known for a long time that we cannot compete in what is currently set up as FBS football.
No, we do not know this. Ask Georgia Tech or Minnesota.
I don't have a clue what the path forward is...
We've been in the MAC for 72 years. That's the path forward.
With respect to FBS football...GA Tech and MInnesota are just about as irrelevant as the MAC .
Mystified as to what "path forward" the MAC offers as we have no real influence on the direction of the sport/business
I know Schad has kept his head in the sand forever regarding our standing in FBS football, but it's clear I have a very different definition of "competing in FBS" football than he does. Neither Minnesota or GaTech really do either, regardless of their current conference affiliation.
I also think as the big boys keep raking in more money we aren't that far off from them no longer desiring to give Minnesota and GaTech their current share of it.
And at no point did i say BG should abandon the MAC, (although maybe they should think about it as some time). My point is the MAC and other G5 conferences need to realize they don't belong and aren't wanted. We cannot throw another 20 scholarships at football. The teams that can will widen the already massive talent gap.
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Sun Jul 28, 2024 7:15 pm
by kdog27
hammb wrote: ↑Sun Jul 28, 2024 11:42 am
Flipper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:06 pm
Schadenfreude wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:49 pm
hammb wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 9:20 am
We've known for a long time that we cannot compete in what is currently set up as FBS football.
No, we do not know this. Ask Georgia Tech or Minnesota.
I don't have a clue what the path forward is...
We've been in the MAC for 72 years. That's the path forward.
With respect to FBS football...GA Tech and MInnesota are just about as irrelevant as the MAC .
Mystified as to what "path forward" the MAC offers as we have no real influence on the direction of the sport/business
I know Schad has kept his head in the sand forever regarding our standing in FBS football, but it's clear I have a very different definition of "competing in FBS" football than he does. Neither Minnesota or GaTech really do either, regardless of their current conference affiliation.
I also think as the big boys keep raking in more money we aren't that far off from them no longer desiring to give Minnesota and GaTech their current share of it.
And at no point did i say BG should abandon the MAC, (although maybe they should think about it as some time). My point is the MAC and other G5 conferences need to realize they don't belong and aren't wanted. We cannot throw another 20 scholarships at football. The teams that can will widen the already massive talent gap.
When I was reading your original post I was like I know what Schad is about to say
Re: Where do we head?
Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2024 2:26 pm
by TalonsUpPuckDown
pdt1081 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 10:17 am
Every sport is seeing the increase in scholarships. With the watered down bowl schedule, and the cost to walk near the big boy table, let alone have a seat, it's only a matter of time before Athletic Departments exercise a bit of financial responsibility. Drastic changes are coming, it's just a matter of who leads and who has to try catching up.
Does 85 total scholarships cover the increase in every other sport combined?
I looked at the sports we play with the current NCAA max scholarships compared to the new proposed limit for each sport.* Keep in mind this is the minimum as we know not all sports provide the current scholarship max. Wow. We're looking at a minimum of 142 new scholarships if we go all in. Is it realistic to think we can afford to participate in this? With that said, the UMass AD tweeted that they're going all in.
Code: Select all
Men Current Future Increase % Increase
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Baseball 11.7 34 22.3 191%
Basketball 13 15 2 15%
Cross Country 5 17 12 240%
Football 85 105 20 24%
Golf 4.5 9 4.5 100%
Hockey 18 26 8 44%
Soccer 9.9 28 18.1 183%
---------------------------------------------------
Total 147.1 234 86.9 59%
Women Current Future Increase % Increase
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Basketball 15 15 0 0%
Cross Country 6 17 11 183%
Golf 6 9 3 50%
Gymnastics 12 20 8 67%
Soccer 14 28 14 100%
Softball 12 25 13 107%
Volleyball 12 18 6 50%
---------------------------------------------------
Total 77 132 55 71%
---------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 224.1 366 141.9 64%
===================================================
*I think I got this right but it's cool if someone checks my math.