@ Ball State 11/23

[mbenecke]

Following a huge win against Western Michigan, our First Place Falcons (6-4, 5-1 MAC) next play at Ball State (3-7, 2-4 MAC) on Saturday, November 23 at 2:00pm. The game will be available to stream on ESPN+.

Ball State’s record obviously isn’t impressive, and they are no longer fighting for bowl eligibility, but it’s striking how every single one of their MAC games has been separated by 6 points or less:

L 37-34 @ Central Michigan
L 45-42 vs. Western Michigan
W 37-35 @ Kent State
W 25-23 vs. Northern Illinois
L 27-21 vs. Miami
L 51-48 (OT) @ Buffalo

They are coming off a road performance putting up 500 yards of offense, but the way they attack is really interesting. They are almost exclusively a passing team in terms of production. Their leading rusher against Buffalo was their QB with 53 yards, and they have only had one single 100+ yard rushing performer this season, back in Week 1 against FCS Missouri State - he had 21 yards on 7 carries this week. Interestingly, our pass defense is elite nationally, ranked 13th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, so that will be a really telling matchup for us.

Ultimately, as with every game in the MAC in November, if we can move the ball and get stops on defense, we have a strong chance to win this one. But it will take a complete, focused effort - cannot be caught looking ahead. We’ve clinched a bowl game, but we’re looking for more.

Go Falcons!

[jpfalcon09]

Following a huge win against Western Michigan, our First Place Falcons (6-4, 5-1 MAC) next play at Ball State (3-7, 2-4 MAC) on Saturday, November 23 at 2:00pm. The game will be available to stream on ESPN+.

Ball State’s record obviously isn’t impressive, and they are no longer fighting for bowl eligibility, but it’s striking how every single one of their MAC games has been separated by 6 points or less:

L 37-34 @ Central Michigan
L 45-42 vs. Western Michigan
W 37-35 @ Kent State
W 25-23 vs. Northern Illinois
L 27-21 vs. Miami
L 51-48 (OT) @ Buffalo

They are coming off a road performance putting up 500 yards of offense, but the way they attack is really interesting. They are almost exclusively a passing team in terms of production. Their leading rusher against Buffalo was their QB with 53 yards, and they have only had one single 100+ yard rushing performer this season, back in Week 1 against FCS Missouri State - he had 21 yards on 7 carries this week. Interestingly, our pass defense is elite nationally, ranked 13th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, so that will be a really telling matchup for us.

Ultimately, as with every game in the MAC in November, if we can move the ball and get stops on defense, we have a strong chance to win this one. But it will take a complete, focused effort - cannot be caught looking ahead. We’ve clinched a bowl game, but we’re looking for more.

Go Falcons!

Kadin Semonza will undoubtedly be the MAC Freshman of the Year. 66.4% completion, 2,356 yards, 20 TDs, 10 INTs. He's the real deal. They put points up on NIU and Miami, two of the better defenses in the conference. Problem is they can't stop anyone. I compare them very similarly to WMU, except they are more deadly in the pass game than run. Probably going to be some points scored in this one.

[Falconfreak90]

Anyone can beat anyone in this league this year...except for Kent State. We will need to be focused from the opening kickoff and not looking ahead to Miami. Ball State can score points.

GO FALCONS

[Warthog]

Does the Ball St game even matter? I mean, does it all come down to beating Miami no matter what happens against Ball St?

[mbenecke]

Does the Ball St game even matter? I mean, does it all come down to beating Miami no matter what happens against Ball St?

It might feel that way, but we still need to win it.

I went to the tiebreaker website in another thread and the only thing I changed was making BG lose to Ball State and beat Miami, and both Toledo and Miami would get in over us in the event of a 5 way tie with those 2, us, Ohio, and WMU.

These tiebreakers are pretty ridiculous, considering we would be 3-0 against the teams we were tied with, but since we don't play Ohio, 2 teams we have beaten would go to Detroit ahead of us.

[jpfalcon09]

Does the Ball St game even matter? I mean, does it all come down to beating Miami no matter what happens against Ball St?

There are scenarios if Ball St. is a loss & Miami is a win that BG would lose tiebreakers if enough teams finish 6-2 in league play. Basically playing Kent while Toledo avoided them would be the tipping point. The winning percentage of your conference opponents is the tiebreaker if enough teams finish tied but they all didn't play each other.

[mbenecke]

Pete Thamel is reporting that Ball State has fired HC Mike Neu, so this game now has an even more interesting dynamic.

[Ayziggy01]

Obviously the Miami game is huge, but winning this week puts us in a great spot to win a spot in detroit on our home field. Ball St firing their coach makes this really interesting. I think we match up well with Ball St but obviously can never take anything for granted in this conference. We should know more about possible tiebreaker/paths to detroit by Wednesday night.

[BGSU33]

I feel like this is shaping up to be a true trap game for multiple reasons. First off, it's the only game this week that is not part of the MACtion slate. Everyone else in the MAC will be playing either Tuesday or Wednesday except BG & BSU. And the reason I really dislike that is, Miami can start its BG prep tomorrow (Wednesday) because they play tonight (Tuesday) and essentially have a bye before facing BG now. BG on the other hand will have to play Miami on a short week and can't start prepping for Miami until Sunday at the earliest. This schedule arrangement gives Miami a big edge heading into that game. The second reason this game feels like a trap is the combination of it being the only MAC Saturday game, it's on the road, the Cardinals have lost a bunch of close games, BSU just fired their head coach, the team could be fired up to play for him, it's BSU's home finale, and most concerning to me is, Ball State has nothing to lose while BG has a ton to lose. I really wish this game was tonight (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday). It's an outlier game and it feel very dangerous to me for BG for all those reasons.

[BillyLP]

I feel like this is shaping up to be a true trap game for multiple reasons. First off, it's the only game this week that is not part of the MACtion slate. Everyone else in the MAC will be playing either Tuesday or Wednesday except BG & BSU. And the reason I really dislike that is, Miami can start its BG prep tomorrow (Wednesday) because they play tonight (Tuesday) and essentially have a bye before facing BG now. BG on the other hand will have to play Miami on a short week and can't start prepping for Miami until Sunday at the earliest. This schedule arrangement gives Miami a big edge heading into that game. The second reason this game feels like a trap is the combination of it being the only MAC Saturday game, it's on the road, the Cardinals have lost a bunch of close games, BSU just fired their head coach, the team could be fired up to play for him, it's BSU's home finale, and most concerning to me is, Ball State has nothing to lose while BG has a ton to lose. I really wish this game was tonight (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday). It's an outlier game and it feel very dangerous to me for BG for all those reasons.

I'm not too worried about the scheduling aspect, but I do agree with your other points. Ball State has a VERY solid QB (who is likely in the portal after this year with Neu gone) and a few other players who are viewing the remainder of the season as a showcase for their next stop, in addition to wanting to play well for their coach. BG needs to come out hot and take care of business early or they're in trouble.

[mbenecke]

Curious about Ball State's tight end. I've seen him up near the top of a number of receiving categories nationally, so I figure that matchup could be key this week.

[jpfalcon09]

I feel like this is shaping up to be a true trap game for multiple reasons. First off, it's the only game this week that is not part of the MACtion slate. Everyone else in the MAC will be playing either Tuesday or Wednesday except BG & BSU. And the reason I really dislike that is, Miami can start its BG prep tomorrow (Wednesday) because they play tonight (Tuesday) and essentially have a bye before facing BG now. BG on the other hand will have to play Miami on a short week and can't start prepping for Miami until Sunday at the earliest. This schedule arrangement gives Miami a big edge heading into that game. The second reason this game feels like a trap is the combination of it being the only MAC Saturday game, it's on the road, the Cardinals have lost a bunch of close games, BSU just fired their head coach, the team could be fired up to play for him, it's BSU's home finale, and most concerning to me is, Ball State has nothing to lose while BG has a ton to lose. I really wish this game was tonight (Tuesday) or tomorrow (Wednesday). It's an outlier game and it feel very dangerous to me for BG for all those reasons.

Wouldn't necessarily call this a trap game. Ball State's record is deceiving. Their four conference losses are by a combined 15 points. Lost to Vanderbilt on the road by ten. They have a nice win vs. NIU under their belt. This isn't Kent State or Akron. They get sucked into shootouts which is their biggest issue. They remind me a lot of WMU, the Broncos just happened to fall on the other end of those close games.

Semonza and Koziol are P4 talents. Question is how they show up after Neu's firing and no longer being bowl eligible.

[TerrenceJesus8]

We should be able to move the ball pretty easily against Ball State. Their QB is legit though. I think this is a bit of a shootout that Ball State covers and BG wins 34-27

[Beaker]

I was thinking about the scheduling aspect of this earlier in the week. Miami has 9 days of rest/preparation between their last game and when we play them. We have 5 days. This is a huge advantage for them. I don't know why the schedule was made this way, unless it was done by Miami grads controlling the process? Seriously though, 3 MAC games last night and 2 tonight. Why couldn't they have just added our game tonight instead of Saturday so the entire conference plays together and things are kept on a reasonably level playing field? People on this board often complain about BG getting the screwgie on the scheduling and it's not always a valid argument, but this time it is.

Miami looks very tough to beat. 6 straight wins. It would be tough enough for us to beat them without the scheduling disadvantage. They were picked to win the conference before the season started for a reason.

[jpfalcon09]

I was thinking about the scheduling aspect of this earlier in the week. Miami has 9 days of rest/preparation between their last game and when we play them. We have 5 days. This is a huge advantage for them. I don't know why the schedule was made this way, unless it was done by Miami grads controlling the process? Seriously though, 3 MAC games last night and 2 tonight. Why couldn't they have just added our game tonight instead of Saturday so the entire conference plays together and things are kept on a reasonably level playing field? People on this board often complain about BG getting the screwgie on the scheduling and it's not always a valid argument, but this time it is.

Miami looks very tough to beat. 6 straight wins. It would be tough enough for us to beat them without the scheduling disadvantage. They were picked to win the conference before the season started for a reason.

Ball State's bye was sandwiched between this game and their game with Buffalo. Not sure if that was the MAC's doing, or how Ball State chose to schedule their non-conference slate. Cards have played essentially every week since Sept. 7th, with a couple off days between NIU & Miami. Seems the MAC was forced to squeeze it in and move this game to a Saturday.

My gut tells me BG is probably doing some minor prep for Miami behind the scenes. I remember Clawson doing this one season when a similar scheduling issue cropped up.