Some thoughts on the Falcons and Badgers as I begin to gear-up for Saturday:
This game could go a lot of different ways. If BG wins, I don’t see us doing it by more than 10 points. You just don’t go into a Big Ten stadium and dominate a game by two touchdowns or more. Their overall talent level and our depth won’t allow it to happen.
If the Badgers win, the spread could be anything. I could see them winning a nail-bitter and I can envision a scenario were they win by more than two touchdowns.
The reality is we both have questions marks. Here are the factors working for and against both of us:
Wisconsin
(plus)
1. Home field advantage. I know we played respectable at Oklahoma last year, but 90,000 screaming fans in Camp Randall will effect us….especially some of the younger players (apparently we are starting some freshmen) who didn’t experience Norman last year.
2. Superior team speed. Speed is often the great equalizer. There is a reason that Wisconsin recruits run 4.4 and ours run 4.6. True the spread, offense neutralizes this advantage to a degree, but wait until be get into the special team units.
3. The running game. Wisconsin will be typical of a Big Ten team and play smash mouth football if necessary. I am sure they have the tapes of the Toledo and Northern Illinois games where we couldn’t make tackle at the line of scrimmage. Their backs are big and strong and will be hard to tackle.
4. Big wide receivers. Our d-backs are undersized and the Badgers have a couple receivers like Orr that go 6’4” and 6’5”. Our only hope is to get some pressure on the quarterback.
(minus)
5. Inconsistent play at quarterback. Stocco has been up and down throughout his career.
6. Young offensive line. Heavy graduation losses mean that a few new players will be working into the line-up. We’ll see what this does to their pass protection and running game.
7. Seven new starters on defense. The entire d-line and almost all of their secondary has new starters this year. Spread offense will challenge this new unit right out of the box.
8. History of lackadaisical openers. Wisconsin has been known to under-perform in openers. While the Falcons won’t sneak-up on them, the Badgers will have to bring their “A” game to win this one.
Bowling Green
(plus)
1. Recent history of playing BCS teams tough. We haven’t been over-matched as of late against some of the so-called “big boys.” If Wisconsin can’t produce more offense than Ohio State, Purdue and Oklahoma did in recent years, we have a great chance at winning this one. BG will move the ball and score in this game.
2. The BG offense. We have enough returning players (especially at the skill positions) to still make this a very potent offense. Spread offense is a challenge for any team, let alone one with a young defense. Omar, Pope, Sanders and Sharon will carry this unit.
3. Attitude. This team goes into this game feeling confident that it has a legitimate chance to win. I can’t say that about BG teams that have opened at Michigan, Penn State and other places in the past.
4. Early game works to our favor. Defenses are usually a little ahead of offenses in the early games, but our offense isn’t your typical group. With Wisconsin working in so many new players on the defensive side of the ball, we should be able to exploit some mistakes by this unit. Same for the Badger offense…hopefully they will not be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate.
(minus)
5. Kicking game. This really scares me. I know people talk about us going for it on fourth down a lot this year, but putting three points on the board is crucial in big games like this. Team speed, or our lack of it, really shows in this area of the game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brandon have BOTH the punter and the kicker boot it out of bounds and away from the return men for the Badgers. Plus, if you put some of your defensive starters on the kick coverage teams, this is way to make sure they stay healthy as well. With our offense, field position isn’t the factor that it normally would be.
6. Tackling ability. We just have to get better at this if we are to win this game. Dawson, McDoogle and Wolfe ran through us at will last year. Plus, DeAngelo Williams was headed for a big day against us in the bowl game before the injury. The Badgers backs will run hard and fast and be difficult to tackle.
7. How will young players on offense react? He slot receiver is crucial to the success of the spread offense. He needs to make read and provide an option for Omar down the middle of the field. This is what made Cole Manger so good. He was great at running the right route and catching the ball. Will the new, young receivers get the job done in this first game? Only time will tell but we’ll need another option than Sanders and Sharon running deep. Plus, we don’t know how the new guys on the offensive line will mess? Practice is practice, but game speed is something else. Luckily, Omar doesn’t need all the time in the world in this offense. Still, the blitzes we know are coming will need to be picker up. We’ll see on Saturday?
8. The hype. We aren’t coming into a Big Ten stadium as the “Christians.” We certainly aren’t the “lions” either but we have their attention. I am sure Alvarez and the coaching staff is turning all this Omar and BG talk into bulletin board material. This is a clear sign that our program is definitely on the rise. Just look at how many prognosticators are picking us to win. Our days of playing the proverbially underdog are behind us.
