Insider.com blurb about Omar...

[hammb]

The latest blurb about underclassmen has this to say on Omar:

The feeling in the scouting community is that Bowling Green quarterback Omar Jacobs is heavily leaning towards entering the draft at this point. Jacobs mother stated weeks ago her son would seriously explore moving to the next level.


This article was dated for 12/13/05, so it's the latest of what they're hearing. Just thought I'd share with those that don't have the subscriptions.

[BGSUfalcons]

Too bad for us. On the plus side, AT will be "the man" and have the entire off season to prepare.

[ffejfalcon]

Hammb....We've probably had this conversation before but....If Omar enters the draft this year, at what round do you think he goes???

Do you think he goes higher than Frye did last year?

[Germainfitch1]

It will be completely dependent upon....
1. Who comes out....If Vick, Young and Quinn all stay in school he very well might be the second rated QB on the board for many teams.
2. How he works out....If teams think he can make all the throws and read an defense, and that our offense didnt simplify things too much for him, and the hitch in his throwing motion is not a problem, and the intangibles,
3. I would currently say that he should fall behind Charlie Frye, He had an injury plagued year, didnt look great in many games and doesnt have the intangible leadership quality people want in their signal caller. However, should Quinn, Young and Vick decide not to come out he may be fighting Paul Pinegar and Jay Cutler for the second best QB in the draft status. If no one falls in love with him Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, David Carr and Phillip rivers should all be available to teams that want franchise QBs. Right now I would say Omar ranks behind all 4 of the vets and all 3 of the Juniors who may come out.

note: Vick certainly is not ready to come out. That has not stopped players from coming out in the past and teams from drafting them.

[hammb]

Until I hear the decisions of Brady Quinn & Vince Young it's tough to say. This is a VERY poor year for Senior QBs, with only Leinart likely to be a first rounder. Omar does have to worry, however, in that Hackney & Cutler are both signed up for the Senior Bowl. If either impresses there they could pass him up, but I'm not sold on either of them.

If everyone declares I would rate the QBs:

Vince Young
Brady Quinn
Matt Leinart
Omar Jacobs

NFL scouts will have the first 3 mixed around, but I think it's pretty clear that the best Omar could hope for with all of those guys in the draft is to be the 4th QB taken. That said, I'd be REALLY surprised if Quinn leaves early, and I would be equally surprised if Vince Young DOESN'T leave early.

If we assume that Vince & Omar leave early, but Brady stays in school, I could see Omar slipping into the bottom of Round 1. I don't think he's a lock for that high of a pick. I would probably grade him in the late 1st/early 2nd area as a prospect, but that's an interesting place to be. There haven't been any 2nd round picks at QB in a few years, and over the last 10 years the total picked there are very slim. If a team thinks you're worth risking the future on they pick you in the first round...if they think you're purely developmental and not worth the gamble they usually drop beyond the 2nd into the 3rd.

Here's a link to the current draft order, as it will have a lot to do with where Omar's drafted:

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/featur ... order.html

Looking at that, and where I think Omar grades out I could definitely see teams like Dallas or Kansas City as possibilities late in round 1. Both are going to need to replace aging vets in the near future, and picking a QB in their current slotting saves you from the astounding salaries of top 10 QBs. This is a similar situation to GB last year wanting to get the guy for the future. However, remember last year Aaron Rodgers was thought as a surefire top 10, then hit a bunch of teams that didn't need a QB. If we assume that Omar is 3rd in the QB pecking order Young & Leinart would need to be selected by one of these teams for Omar to be in the first round: Texans, Jets, Saints, Cardinals, Lions, Ravens, or Raiders. Those are the only teams that I see currently in the top 12 that would take a QB this year. Even then it's iffy that Houston, NY, Detroit, and Baltimore would give up on their current guys. If One of Leinart or Young drop through those teams you could very well see Omar land just like Frye did last year, in the 3rd round.

If Hackney or Cutler impress at the senior bowl and jump Omar in scouts' eyes he could legitimately land into the 4th round. I don't see that happening, but I wouldn't rule it completely out. Personally, I think Omar will impress at the combine, and firmly entrench himself above those guys.

If you're asking for my grade of him I put him about the same as Charlie Frye. Frye had much better intangibles, IMO, but Omar has a far superior physical skill set. Omar is more of a gamble than Frye, but he's got a much better upside. If I had both of them in the same draft, I'd take Frye, but I think most NFL scouts would take Omar over him. When it comes to QBs, I'm in love with intangibles, and there are a lot of NFL scouts that are in love with the big guy with the big arm. I'll be very curious to see how this all plays out. Sorry I cannot give you much of a concrete answer but at this point I could honestly see him falling anywhere from top 10 to 4th round. My gut reaction is somewhere between picks 20-40.

[Jacobs4Heisman]

If you're correct in your assessment hammb, it would probably be a mistake for Omar to stay. When I say mistake, I mean in terms of his draft potential and future NFL earnings.

I hope he stays just because I'm selfish and I want to see him for one more year, but I couldn't hold it against him if he decides to leave. I think I would if I were in his position. At least he's been honest about the process so far, and that's all we can ask of the guy.


After Roethlisberger smoked us in the MACC in 2003, you could easily tell from his postgame interview that he was gone. He didn't explicitly say that, but the writing on the wall was crystal clear. The signs haven't been as pronounced with Omar, but I've still had the feeling ever since the Toledo game that he was gone. Time will tell.

[hammb]

If my gut is correct and he goes in the top 40 picks he's best off leaving. If I'm wrong, or all the other juniors declare, he could be making a HUGE error in judgement. The NFL does have a committee that studies where they think kids will go and will give the advice to underclassmen that are considering the jump. I have to believe that Omar is smart enough to only leave if he's hearing good things from those people. I cannot see him leaving if they're telling him he's a 3rd or 4th rounder.


EDIT: Oh, just as an aside the highest I've seen Omar projected in any mock draft was something like #8. GBN is VERY high on him still. That was in a mock that had Leinart at #2 & Young at #5. Talking with some other draftniks most are shocked to see him even as a first rounder let alone a top 10.

[1987alum]

I cannot see him leaving if they're telling him he's a 3rd or 4th rounder.

hammb: Can you elaborate on this point? I'm guessing that you believe returning would, in turn, raise his position in the 2007 draft. I'd love to read your reasoning behind that.

[Redwingtom]

I have to say at this point from what I have heard is that Young is coming back. Of course if he wins the title this year that could change.

As far as Omar...I think he should declare regardless of where he is projected. He needs to go to a good team where he can learn from a veteran for a year or two anyway. If he goes to a poor team he may be pressured into playing right away which could be a big debacle.

He is going to be making a huge chunk of change no matter where he ends up. Also, isn't there some type of cap that is going in after this years draft?

I don't think Quinn will leave early either (he is not a Senior correct?) I think Weiss will easily be able to talk him into returning for a national title run.

[Warthog]

If we assume that Omar is 3rd in the QB pecking order Young & Leinart would need to be selected by one of these teams for Omar to be in the first round: Texans, Jets, Saints, Cardinals, Lions, Ravens, or Raiders. Those are the only teams that I see currently in the top 12 that would take a QB this year. Even then it's iffy that Houston, NY, Detroit, and Baltimore would give up on their current guys.

I think the Titans could take a QB as well. And I wouldn't be surprised if SF or GB actually took one as well. I know there is the whole issue with admitting they screwed up last year, bit if Leinart or Young is available, how could those teams not take them given how Smith has performed this year (awful, to be nice about it) and I have read that Rogers has struggled a lot as well. That is why they have kept playing Favre despite being out of it for some time now.

[Jacobs4Heisman]

If we assume that Omar is 3rd in the QB pecking order Young & Leinart would need to be selected by one of these teams for Omar to be in the first round: Texans, Jets, Saints, Cardinals, Lions, Ravens, or Raiders. Those are the only teams that I see currently in the top 12 that would take a QB this year. Even then it's iffy that Houston, NY, Detroit, and Baltimore would give up on their current guys.

I think the Titans could take a QB as well. And I wouldn't be surprised if SF or GB actually took one as well. I know there is the whole issue with admitting they screwed up last year, bit if Leinart or Young is available, how could those teams not take them given how Smith has performed this year (awful, to be nice about it) and I have read that Rogers has struggled a lot as well. That is why they have kept playing Favre despite being out of it for some time now.

Jesus wouldn't start over Brett Favre in GB. They could be 0-15 and Brett Favre would not even be questioned as the starter.

No way SF or GB takes a QB with the high pick. No team would give up on a number 1 after his rookie year. A rookie QB on a bad team is expected to struggle. GB has holes in too many other areas to spend another first rounder on a QB. Only matt millen drafts the same position in the first round year after year after year after...

[hamjunior]

Good chance it is going to happen

[hammb]

I cannot see him leaving if they're telling him he's a 3rd or 4th rounder.

hammb: Can you elaborate on this point? I'm guessing that you believe returning would, in turn, raise his position in the 2007 draft. I'd love to read your reasoning behind that.

Basically that's it.

I cannot find the exact numbers, but I know that Frye signed a 4 year deal. I'm guessing that the total money for the contract is probably between $1-3 million. It sounds like a lot to us, but it's not that substantial by NFL standards. To compare had he gone 20th overall he would've gotten a signing bonus of more than that, plus the salary.

If the committee that researches these things is telling Omar that he's a likely 3rd or 4th rounder he doesn't stand to make that much money right away, and he'd be better off to prove that this season was a fluke. If he were to bounce back with a healthy 2006 with numbers close to what he put up in 2004 he'd vault right back up to a first round lock and would be talking about multimillion dollar signing bonuses. Of course if he had another down year he could drop even further, but that's a risk he would have to take.

Tom's right that Omar would definitely be better off going to a good team, because he is NOT ready to play in the league right now. But I still think that he's better off returning if he's looking at being later than a 2nd rounder. The financial dropoff is pretty severe, and it takes a LONG time to make that money back.

[BGSU33]

The latest blurb about underclassmen has this to say on Omar:

The feeling in the scouting community is that Bowling Green quarterback Omar Jacobs is heavily leaning towards entering the draft at this point. Jacobs mother stated weeks ago her son would seriously explore moving to the next level.


This article was dated for 12/13/05, so it's the latest of what they're hearing. Just thought I'd share with those that don't have the subscriptions.

Thanks for the info, although, I was hoping it was going to say something along the lines of him staying. It just seems like there's so much nunfinished business when I think of Omar at BG. But if this is the decision he makes, I will wish him the best of luck. Personally, when Omar we down vs. WMU, I thought his career at BG ended on that play. Thankfully, it didn't, but I hope it wasn't only extended two more games (Miami & UT). I guess we'll see, but I've have a feeling he's gone.

[hammb]

If we assume that Omar is 3rd in the QB pecking order Young & Leinart would need to be selected by one of these teams for Omar to be in the first round: Texans, Jets, Saints, Cardinals, Lions, Ravens, or Raiders. Those are the only teams that I see currently in the top 12 that would take a QB this year. Even then it's iffy that Houston, NY, Detroit, and Baltimore would give up on their current guys.

I think the Titans could take a QB as well. And I wouldn't be surprised if SF or GB actually took one as well. I know there is the whole issue with admitting they screwed up last year, bit if Leinart or Young is available, how could those teams not take them given how Smith has performed this year (awful, to be nice about it) and I have read that Rogers has struggled a lot as well. That is why they have kept playing Favre despite being out of it for some time now.

I could definitely see the Titans going QB...not sure how I missed them on my list, they should be there. SF CANNOT take a first round QB, although it wouldn't shock me if they took one in the 2nd or 3rd round. You just cannot have that much money tied up in the QB position. Alex Smith is already one of the top 5-10 highest paid QBs in the league, due to the way rookie salaries work. If they drafted another QB they'd have 2 of the top 10 highest paid QBs in the league. Due to the huge signing bonuses that top picks get they also cannot afford to cut Alex Smith regardless of how good or bad they think he'll become. The problem with taking a QB that high is that you're now locked into their development time waiting for him to develop or for his contract to expire.

GB I suppose could look for a QB, but again I'd be pretty shocked if they took one in the top 10. They'd have to think he was head's & shoulder's above Rogers for that to happen. Like J4H said, don't read anything into the playing time, there would be a fan riot if they benched Favre when he's healthy...the brass doesn't have the balls to do it in GB.