BG's PWR forecast

[jpfalcon09]

Michigan Tech's coach is on the selection committee so it'll be interesting to see if he lobbies for BG to get an at-large if the Falcons happen to lose Friday, which I don't think will happen.

[Freddie]

Unlike football or basketball, there isn't anyway a member of the committee (or anybody else) can "lobby" anybody in to, or out of the field. The auto-bids and the PWR will choose the field. All the committee does is place those teams into the appropriate brackets, often juggling those brackets to avoid intra-conference matchups and bolster the gate.

[pdt1081]

Unlike football or basketball, there isn't anyway a member of the committee (or anybody else) can "lobby" anybody in to, or out of the field. The auto-bids and the PWR will choose the field. All the committee does is place those teams into the appropriate brackets, often juggling those brackets to avoid intra-conference matchups and bolster the gate.

This. Only lobbying for him to do would be to place BG in South Bend......or lobby to make sure they aren't (provided BG takes care of business). He has quite the decision to make for his team as well. Lobby for South Bend with Mankato most likely being there, or lobby to go east and avoid that match-up again. He'd be insane to try and get Fargo. Virtual home game for North Dakota.

[unfalconbelievable]

Plug in the results yourself and see what happens. If your bored kind of fun to play with the different combinations.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/" target="_blank

[TG1996]

Paranoid devil's advocate here...

How concrete is the PWR for selection, really? Especially the one on the USCHO site? I'm drawn to this line under their rankings:

The PairWise Ranking is a system which attempts to mimic the method used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine participants for the NCAA Division I men's hockey tournament.

Say BG ends up 12th in the PWR. Minnesota is 13th, but Michigan/MSU wins the Big Ten tourney, along with three other teams outside the Top 16 on the PWR. So there's four of the 16 bids taken by outsiders, which, by everything that's been said here and elsewhere, puts BG in. But we know how money talks and Minnesota could be .0001 percent behind BG, but still behind BG.

Is it that cut and dry? Or are there possible loopholes.

I hope we beat Tech and all but put an end to the speculation (and for the title shot, of course), but I'm trying to keep a guard up from getting railroaded by the "big boys."

[poltergeist]

Paranoid devil's advocate here...

How concrete is the PWR for selection, really? Especially the one on the USCHO site? I'm drawn to this line under their rankings:

The PairWise Ranking is a system which attempts to mimic the method used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine participants for the NCAA Division I men's hockey tournament.

Say BG ends up 12th in the PWR. Minnesota is 13th, but Michigan/MSU wins the Big Ten tourney, along with three other teams outside the Top 16 on the PWR. So there's four of the 16 bids taken by outsiders, which, by everything that's been said here and elsewhere, puts BG in. But we know how money talks and Minnesota could be .0001 percent behind BG, but still behind BG.

Is it that cut and dry? Or are there possible loopholes.

I hope we beat Tech and all but put an end to the speculation (and for the title shot, of course), but I'm trying to keep a guard up from getting railroaded by the "big boys."

if Minnesota is 13th, and Michigan/MSU wins the tourney...that will be due to Minnesota losing to a team with a lower PWR. that would drop them from 13th, making a tournament invite unlikely.
if BG loses either Friday or Sat., they lose to a team with a higher PWR. better odds than Minny of getting an invite.

http://collegehockeyranked.com/2015/03/ ... ibilities/" target="_blank

[jpfalcon09]

Basically for BG's best chance to get in if they lose on Friday, you want as many teams above them to win conference tournament championships. Best to root for Boston U, Quinnipiac, Miami (this would help BG's RPI) and Minnesota. The AHA winner is going to knock out whoever is 16th and if St. Cloud gets a win this weekend they could also knock out a lesser team since their SOS is #2.

There's a lot of variables but it'll take a perfect storm to eliminate BG from tournament contention.

[jpfalcon09]

FWIW, CHN's PWR predictor gives BG a 78% chance of making the tournament. Most of the major prognosticators are inclined to believe BG is in unless some major upsets occur. If BG loses and they get in, seems like a matchup against BU or Denver would make the most sense. BU has Jack Eichel and he'll be a top 2 NHL pick this summer.

[TG1996]

if Minnesota is 13th, and Michigan/MSU wins the tourney...that will be due to Minnesota losing to a team with a lower PWR. that would drop them from 13th, making a tournament invite unlikely.
if BG loses either Friday or Sat., they lose to a team with a higher PWR. better odds than Minny of getting an invite.

http://collegehockeyranked.com/2015/03/ ... ibilities/" target="_blank

Thanks. I realize Minnesota would likely drop if they lose at all, but I guess my theory could go for any "traditional power" that might end up in that spot. As much history as we have, we kind of feel like the new kids on the block.

I have no doubt we're in, unless we lose Friday and some silly things happen elsewhere (incl. Ferris winning the WCHA), but the paranoid side of me was just a little curious.

[Schadenfreude]

If Bowling Green loses Friday, it's about 50/50. That's how I read those PWR odds. I'm assuming there is no consolidation game.

[Freddie]

Just win, baby.
The rest will take care of itself!