2026 Off-season

[jpfalcon09]

Here's some stats you never knew you needed (and after reading probably still think you don't need). Ryan Sikes did an analysis of all first year CHL players that played NCAA hockey this year and calculated for each of the CHL leagues how many of their junior league points were retained at the NCAA level. The chart for our CHL guys is below. For example, Rymon played in the WHL and scored over a point per game which put him in the Elite category. The math across all WHL Elite players who played in the NCAA says they retain 37% of their junior scoring. In his last year with Everett, Rymon scored 66 points in 65 games for 1.02 points per game. This year he scored 22 points in 36 games for an NCAA points per game of .61. So instead of retaining 37% of his scoring from juniors, Rymon retained 60% which is a lot better than the average. Wow!

In summary, Rymon, Crampton, Higgins, and Morneau were at or above the average expected PPG for players from their CHL leagues playing in their first year of college hockey.

Code: Select all

                                                                        Projected PPG   Actual PPG   PPG Retention
Player          Pos  Gm   Pts   PPG  League    Gm   Pts   PPG   Rating*   Retention*     Retention     Variance
Dominik Rymon    F   36    22   0.61   WHL     65    66   1.02   Elite       0.37           0.60         0.23
Brayden Crampton D   35    18   0.51   WHL     67    71   1.06   Elite       0.37           0.49         0.12
Ty Higgins       D   20    11   0.55  QMJHL    63    67   1.06   Elite       0.49           0.52         0.03
Noah Morneau     F   30    15   0.50   OHL     68    73   1.07   Elite       0.54           0.47        -0.07
Jake Sloan       F   32     7   0.22   WHL     62    73   1.18   Elite       0.37           0.19        -0.18
Jérémie Minvilel F   33    10   0.30  QMJHL    63    66   1.05   Elite       0.49           0.29        -0.20
Connor Levis     F   31     5   0.16   WHL     64    56   0.88   Secondary   0.44           0.18        -0.26
Brandon Whynott  F   27     4   0.15   WHL     67    60   0.90   Secondary   0.44           0.17        -0.27

*Taken from "How CHL Scoring Rates Translated To NCAA During 2025-26 Season" by RMS Hockey

https://rmshockey.substack.com/p/how-ch ... translated

I tried using these formulas to get a sense as to what we could expect from this year's incoming freshmen. Not sure this is close to accurate but here's what the model kicked out. As an example, Tomas Verdon has 1.48 PPG in the Q this year, per the article you'd expect him to retain 49% of that scoring pace or .73 PPG. If he plays in 32 games one would expect him to post 23 points on the year (not too shabby).

Code: Select all

                                                         Projected PPG  Estimated PPG  Estimated Pts
Player         Pos  League  Gm   Pts   PPG       Rating*   Retention*     Retention     (32 games)
Thomas Verdon   F    QMJHL  64    95   1.48       Elite       0.49           0.73           23
Chase Coughlan  F     OHL   59    33   0.56       Depth       0.73           0.41           13
Matthew Soto    F     OHL   68    51   0.75     Secondary     0.52           0.39           12
Mazden Leslie   D     WHL   67    68   1.01       Elite       0.37           0.38           12
Sam McCue       F     OHL   53    32   0.60     Secondary     0.52           0.31           10
Luke Pfoh       F     BCHL  48    42   0.88     Secondary     0.34           0.30           10
Peteris Bulans  D    QMJHL  62    40   0.65     Secondary     0.31           0.20            6
Cooper Wilson   D     BCHL  47    21   0.45       Depth       0.37           0.17            5

There are lots of holes that can be poked in this analysis but I was bored today and thought I'd run the numbers. About all one can say is that it's better than nothing.

Seems like a reasonable formula to try and project future output. If anything it demonstrates the different style of play in college as compared to Canadian Juniors, and as such we should probably temper expectations a bit for some of the incoming players (as evidenced this year).

[pdt1081]

Here's some stats you never knew you needed (and after reading probably still think you don't need). Ryan Sikes did an analysis of all first year CHL players that played NCAA hockey this year and calculated for each of the CHL leagues how many of their junior league points were retained at the NCAA level. The chart for our CHL guys is below. For example, Rymon played in the WHL and scored over a point per game which put him in the Elite category. The math across all WHL Elite players who played in the NCAA says they retain 37% of their junior scoring. In his last year with Everett, Rymon scored 66 points in 65 games for 1.02 points per game. This year he scored 22 points in 36 games for an NCAA points per game of .61. So instead of retaining 37% of his scoring from juniors, Rymon retained 60% which is a lot better than the average. Wow!

In summary, Rymon, Crampton, Higgins, and Morneau were at or above the average expected PPG for players from their CHL leagues playing in their first year of college hockey.

Code: Select all

                                                                        Projected PPG   Actual PPG   PPG Retention
Player          Pos  Gm   Pts   PPG  League    Gm   Pts   PPG   Rating*   Retention*     Retention     Variance
Dominik Rymon    F   36    22   0.61   WHL     65    66   1.02   Elite       0.37           0.60         0.23
Brayden Crampton D   35    18   0.51   WHL     67    71   1.06   Elite       0.37           0.49         0.12
Ty Higgins       D   20    11   0.55  QMJHL    63    67   1.06   Elite       0.49           0.52         0.03
Noah Morneau     F   30    15   0.50   OHL     68    73   1.07   Elite       0.54           0.47        -0.07
Jake Sloan       F   32     7   0.22   WHL     62    73   1.18   Elite       0.37           0.19        -0.18
Jérémie Minvilel F   33    10   0.30  QMJHL    63    66   1.05   Elite       0.49           0.29        -0.20
Connor Levis     F   31     5   0.16   WHL     64    56   0.88   Secondary   0.44           0.18        -0.26
Brandon Whynott  F   27     4   0.15   WHL     67    60   0.90   Secondary   0.44           0.17        -0.27

*Taken from "How CHL Scoring Rates Translated To NCAA During 2025-26 Season" by RMS Hockey

https://rmshockey.substack.com/p/how-ch ... translated

I tried using these formulas to get a sense as to what we could expect from this year's incoming freshmen. Not sure this is close to accurate but here's what the model kicked out. As an example, Tomas Verdon has 1.48 PPG in the Q this year, per the article you'd expect him to retain 49% of that scoring pace or .73 PPG. If he plays in 32 games one would expect him to post 23 points on the year (not too shabby).

Code: Select all

                                                         Projected PPG  Estimated PPG  Estimated Pts
Player         Pos  League  Gm   Pts   PPG       Rating*   Retention*     Retention     (32 games)
Thomas Verdon   F    QMJHL  64    95   1.48       Elite       0.49           0.73           23
Chase Coughlan  F     OHL   59    33   0.56       Depth       0.73           0.41           13
Matthew Soto    F     OHL   68    51   0.75     Secondary     0.52           0.39           12
Mazden Leslie   D     WHL   67    68   1.01       Elite       0.37           0.38           12
Sam McCue       F     OHL   53    32   0.60     Secondary     0.52           0.31           10
Luke Pfoh       F     BCHL  48    42   0.88     Secondary     0.34           0.30           10
Peteris Bulans  D    QMJHL  62    40   0.65     Secondary     0.31           0.20            6
Cooper Wilson   D     BCHL  47    21   0.45       Depth       0.37           0.17            5

There are lots of holes that can be poked in this analysis but I was bored today and thought I'd run the numbers. About all one can say is that it's better than nothing.

You can data analyze it many different ways. I'm more interested in 1st year to 2nd year growth in the CHL, and how it will compare to college. There's a lot of potential there since half the team won't be acclimating themselves to NCAA hockey.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Was this already discussed and I missed it? Bids closed back in Sept of last year for a full sized second sheet. I don’t remember hearing anything about it? I get that it's just a bid for a feasibility study, not construction.

https://www.bidnetdirect.com/ohio/solic ... 3639286275

[mbenecke]

Was this already discussed and I missed it? Bids closed back in Sept of last year for a full sized second sheet. I don’t remember hearing anything about it? I get that it's just a bid for a feasibility study, not construction.

https://www.bidnetdirect.com/ohio/solic ... 3639286275

Gonna come in handy when we’re hosting an on-campus NCAA regional here in a few years.

[pdt1081]

Ohio State non-conference announced, and as expected, no BG this year.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Ohio State non-conference announced, and as expected, no BG this year.

This kinda bums me out. I really like the home-and-home with OSU. I have family members in CBUS and there's always smack talk going back and forth.

On the positive side we get to hold on to the virtual Ohio Cup for another year.

[unfalconbelievable]

I'm going to the forum realist or pessimist by some......

It's incredible that we have some of the non-leagues games that we coming on the schedule in the future. It will fill the arena and will be great money games for the university.

Some I've noticed and mentioned this is the year. I'm going to pause until I see it. A year ago, we were praised on having one of the top recruiting classes in the country. Made many websites, there was some buzz around the program regarding that. That translated into a tied for 4th in the league standings with a road series loss in the playoffs. Let follow that up with another great recruiting class..... Our recruiting class this year I've seen as high as 22 and low as 28th. Very mediocre.

We competed with Notre Dame and Ohio State. I preface competed because they were nearly the bottom two teams in the Big Ten. Princeton was probably our best weekend of the year. They finished fourth in their league and above us in the NPI rankings. Then throw in being swept by Niagara to open the year who was a bottom ten team in college hockey.

With better competition coming in and the talent gap isn't closing because the schools that we are playing are once again in the top recruiting classes in the country. I hope we split at very least to some of these series because beating better teams will certainly help our NPI rating. But we have to beat them. Bringing in better teams to get swept does nothing.

Last 40 years of Falcon Hockey:

1 - League Title
3 - League Tournament Title Appearances (Won 1) - Two if these were Bergeron
3 - 2nd place Finishes
2 - NCAA Tournament Appearance
2 - 30 Win Seasons (both by Jerry York)
11 - 20 Win Seasons (5 of them were Bergeron, could credit him with seven, because Eigner had two with Berg's players his first two years)

So 13 out 40 years we've had over 20 or more wins (7 of those came in a row with Berg and Ty for two years), 2 NCAA tournament appearances, 1 League Title which was 40 years ago (Freshman class of 84 title teams senior year). We need to expect more, DO BETTER. 18 wins is not a successful year. Call it what you want, I'm tired of the semi-finals on the road loss in the league tournament, that's if we get there. This year we didn't even get that far. I'm tired of the another 18 win season, no one should be celebrating mediocrity. Losses to Northern, Lake Superior, Niagara show a lot, those four games changed the direction of our season drastically. Possibly winning the league and making the tournament to another subpar year. You can say we are close, but we are that far away due to losing to crappy teams. I hope this is a season worth remembering but I've sat through too many home/road disappointing loses to bad teams to not be a skeptic at this point. Only 4 times in the last 40 years has BG finished higher then 3rd. Imagine if we actually competed at the top regularly. Arena would be full all the time.

[jpfalcon09]

Was this already discussed and I missed it? Bids closed back in Sept of last year for a full sized second sheet. I don’t remember hearing anything about it? I get that it's just a bid for a feasibility study, not construction.

https://www.bidnetdirect.com/ohio/solic ... 3639286275

Area needs another sheet somewhere. Tamo and Ice House are pretty much fully booked in the heart of hockey season. Curious to see if anything comes from this.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

BG hockey has a perfect multi-year Annual Progress Rate (APR) from the NCAA and is only one of 6 teams to do so.

https://www.collegehockeyinc.com/2026/0 ... yet-again/

[mbenecke]

Are we expecting a CCHA schedule release this week? It was announced on May 13 in 2025, and on May 6 in 2024. Considering it's already May 10, I have to imagine it is coming very soon.

[pdt1081]

Are we expecting a CCHA schedule release this week? It was announced on May 13 in 2025, and on May 6 in 2024. Considering it's already May 10, I have to imagine it is coming very soon.

Sounds like tomorrow is the day.

[pdt1081]

[mbenecke]

Maryville is interesting!

16 home games last year, up to 21 this year.

[BGFalconfromCincy]

They are playing a hybrid schedule this year with D1 and club teams before going full D1 in 27-28

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Only one series against Tech again this year. Sigh. Would have preferred the single series to be against one of the western/MN teams. I guess that makes us even for last year.

They listed the playoff matches using the away color palette. Foreshadowing?