CCHA Pick ‘Em 2023-24: Augie's In!

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The week 7 winner with 26 points is our Miami State representative, SweeneyHawksHockey. I mean this with all the Love and Honor I can muster...congrats! Stick taps to John J. MacInnes who went with his head and not his heart and was the only contestant to correctly pick Ferris to beat Tech on Friday. Special shout out to beaverhockeyfan and mikeeddy19 who each were 100% on the anti-picks Friday, and Scrum Bucket who achieved the same feat on Saturday.

There were 58 penalties called across all 8 CCHA games this past weekend. puckdude40 lead the way picking up 9 bonus points which has helped him open up an eight point lead on MTUHuskyGold. SweeneyHawksHockey has played himself into third place tie with Redridge with his weekly win. SectionP has faded a bit from their perch atop the week 5 standings.

Back to the bonus. Bemidji's comeback performance of 7 goals on Saturday against the Mavs now sees them atop the yearlong team/bonus goal. Right now soulbeaver is the only contestant who would pick up the full 5 bonus points (awarded at the end of the season, not included in scores today). Lastly, fourteen contestants picked up at least one bonus point this week. Here's how the bonus played out:

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Contestant          Bonus
puckdude40            9
Footballguy51         8
SweeneyHawksHockey    8
Bronco Hockey Fan     7
Hockey John           7
MTUHuskyGold          7
Redridge              7
giwan                 6
beaverhockeyfan       4
SectionP              4
Manurespreader        3
Critical Thinker      2
GoNanooks             2
Icd80                 1

In the race for the Sauer, puckdude40 maintains a 5 point lead over MTUHuskyGold. The bonus is in play again this week.

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Contestant      Bonus
puckdude40        26
MTUHuskyGold      21
Footballguy51     20
Lakerchum         18

In the Battle for the Beagan, SectionP maintains their lead by 4 points over Puck Master and 6 points (2 full games) over SweeneyHawksHockey and Redridge. A reminder that to be eligible to win the Beagan you have to participate in 3/4 of the season.

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Contestant        Points %    Games
SectionP           .609        75
Puck Master        .584        67
SweeneyHawksHockey .580        75
Redridge           .580        75
Soulbeaver         .575        75
GoNanooks          .575        75

For this year's crop of Pick 'Em rookies, this week's bonus may be confusing. Feel free to post your questions here, I'll answer pronto. Good luck!

Week 8 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

We travel all the way to The Last Frontier to find our week 8 winner. Congrats to GoNanooks who, with 22 points, bested all comers. Well done. Also, stick taps to GoNanooks and MTUHuskyGold who were each perfect pickers on Saturday. In a testament to how far St. Thomas has come since joining the D1 ranks, only 8 contestants correctly picked the Lakers to upset the Tommies on Saturday. Not to be totally outdone, MTUHuskyGold had a solid 21-point week and now finds themselves in first place ahead of puckdude40 with SweeneyHawksHockey and Redridge tied for third.

Now, on to the bonus and what a whacky bonus it was. Fifty seconds into overtime on Friday, North Dakota's Blake Jackson scored the GWG off of a very questionable non-offsides call. Doing the math, that rounds up to the 61 minute mark. On Saturday, North Dakota's Dane Montgomery scored the GWG at the 4:37 mark of the first period in a 5-0 shutout of the Beavers. Doing the math, that rounds up to 5:00. Averaging the two together we end up with 33 minutes. Ten contestants picked up at least one bonus point, but Footballguy51 and mikeeddy19 were both spot on and picked up the full 5 bonus points. Here's how the bonus paid out:

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Contestant        Bonus
Footballguy51       5
mikeeddy19          5
GoNanooks           4
Icd80               4
Critical Thinker    3
MTUHuskyGold        3
Redridge            3
SweeneyHawksHockey  2
mbenecke            1
TalonsUpPuckDown    1

In the Race for the Sauer, puckdude40's lead has been hacked down to 1 point over footballguy51 with MTUHuskyGold closeby.

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Contestant     Bonus
puckdude40      26
Footballguy51   25
MTUHuskyGold    24
Lakerchum       18
Redridge        14

In the Battle for the Beagan, GoNanooks' stellar week now has them 3 points (1 game) behind SectionP with SweeneyHawksHockey lurking only 4 points behind.

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Contestant          Points %
SectionP             .611
GoNanooks            .598
SweeneyHawksHockey   .594
Redridge             .590
Hockey John          .590

Week 9 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The week 9 co-winners with 23 points each were Hockey John and GoNanooks which makes 2 wins in a row for our contestant from the Last Frontier. Congratulations to the both of you! It seems the field is starting to figure out the craziness that is the 2023-24 CCHA as 6 contestants are now within 5 points of our leader MTUHuskyGold. However that's not to say there are some challenges as 3 contestants, beaverhockeyfan, Lakerchum, and Mikeeddy19 were perfect on Friday with the anti-picks. However, both beaverhockeyfan and Mikeeddy19 recovered on Saturday with perfect picking along with GoNanooks, iwearpurple, Redridge, and Soulbeaver.

There were 119 SOGs in the Augie/Northern series (NMU had 73). Hockey John led the pack with 8 bonus points. 13 contestants picked up at least 1 bonus point. Here's how the bonus paid out:

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Contestant       Bonus
Hockey John        8
giwan              7
GoNanooks          7
iwearpurple        7
MTUHuskyGold       7
Lakerchum          6
Tommiealum93       6
Bronco Hockey Fan  5
mikeeddy19         5
SectionP           5
Redridge           4
SweeneyHawksHockey 3
potternmu          1

MTUHuskyGold has taken over first in the Race for the Sauer. Here are the current standings:

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Contestant     Bonus
MTUHuskyGold    31
puckdude40      26
Footballguy51   25
Lakerchum       24
giwan           20

As mentioned before, the field seems to be figuring the league out. Through week 8 only one contestant has had a pick percentage over .600. This week there are now 4. SectionP maintains their lead in the Battle for the Beagan with GoNanooks 3 points/1 game behind.

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Contestant        Points %  Games
SectionP            .624      91
GoNanooks           .612      91
Soulbeaver          .608      91
Redridge            .604      91
SweeneyHawksHockey  .596      91

The bonus is tired and will take the week off.

Week 10 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

There were 4 winners this week with 21 points each: Bronco Hockey Fan, Footballguy51, Hockey John, and SectionP. Well done! And with this win SectionP and Hockey John are now tied for the lead with GoNanooks 2 points behind in second and last week's leader MTUHuskyGold dropping back to third only 3 points back. Wow, what a race! It looks like the field is finally starting to figure this league out as there were 7 contestants with perfect scores after Friday nights games, two contestants were perfect on Saturday, and one contestant was perfect with the anti-picks on Saturday.

Here are the updated standings in the Battle for the Beagan:

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Contestant         Pick %    Games
SectionP           .646       99
Hockey John        .617       99
GoNanooks          .613       99
SweeneyHawksHockey .609       99
Redridge           .604       91
Soulbeaver         .599       99

NOTE: There is a Thursday game this week so get those picks in early!

The bonus is back this week. Place your bets.

Week 11 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The week 10 winner is our very own Critical Thinker who brought it home with 16 points. Congrats! For the third week in a row a new name appears at the top of the leaderboard: with a solid 15-point performance, SweeneyHawksHockey and SectionP are now tied with GoNanooks lurking one point behind. MTUHuskyGold, our leader as of week 9, is only 3 points back. At the halfway point of the season it's anybody's ball game! A special shout out goes to potternmu and SweeneyHawksHockey who were the only two contestants to correctly pick RPI's Friday night win over the Mavs.

Moving on to the bonus, there were 15 special teams goals on the weekend. Only 5 contestants picked up points on that one. With less than three minutes remaining in the contest, the Lakers scored the 6th goal of the game bringing the 21 contestants who bet the over much holiday joy. When you add it all up, SweeneyHawksHockey led the way with 4 total bonus points (it's a SweeneyHawksHockey kind of week!). Here are the details:

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Contestant          ST    O/U  Total
SweeneyHawksHockey   4     0     4
Critical Thinker     3     0     3
beaverhockeyfan      1     2     3
BGSURICK             1     2     3
Scrum Bucket         1     2     3
AgentClass           0     2     2
Bronco Hockey Fan    0     2     2
Footballguy51        0     2     2
giwan                0     2     2
Icd80                0     2     2
iwearpurple          0     2     2
John J. MacInnes     0     2     2
Lakerchum            0     2     2
Manurespreader       0     2     2
mbenecke             0     2     2
mikeeddy19           0     2     2
MTUHuskyGold         0     2     2
potternmu            0     2     2
puckdude40           0     2     2
Redridge             0     2     2
SectionP             0     2     2
Soulbeaver           0     2     2
Tommiealum93         0     2     2

There was not a lot of movement in the Race for the Sauer. MTUHuskyGold remains our leader.

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Contestant        Bonus
MTUHuskyGold        33
puckdude40          28
Footballguy51       27
Lakerchum           26
giwan               22
SweeneyHawksHockey  20
Redridge            20

SectionP maintains their lead in the Battle for the Beagan by 6 points/2 games, but after this week there is some scrambling of the contestants in the 2-5 spots.

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Contestant          Points %   Games
SectionP             .649       104
GoNanooks            .628       104
SweeneyHawksHockey   .618       104
Soulbeaver           .615       104
Hockey John          .608       104

It's holiday tournament time! For the GLI and Ledyard Bank Classic, we will go with the standard NCAA tie after 65 minutes option as it's difficult to discern how each tournament determines who advances. Also, you'll see that matchups for the second day include all possibilities. Pick each game, I'll use only the actual games played.

Lastly, the staff here at the CCHA Pick 'Em wish everyone a safe and happy holiday season. See you next year!

Week 12 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Bump. Here are a couple of charts showing the frequency with which each CCHA team has been picked so far along with the most popular days contestants fill out there picks.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The second half of the season begins with 6 games next weekend. Shake off the holiday hangover and start the second half of the season fresh.

Week 12 results will be posted on Monday.

Week 13 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Congratulations to the week 12 quad winners: GoNanooks, MTUHuskyGold, puckdude40, and SweeneyHawksHockey who each posted 25 points. Interestingly enough, the top 4 contestants on the leaderboard just so happen to be our 4 week 12 winners. I can't remember that ever happening before. SweeneyHawksHockey now leads by one point over GoNanooks and two points over MTUHuskyGold

In another twist, the field either collectively correctly picked a team to win...or collectively didn't.

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Winning Team     # Times Picked
Michigan State	        21
Michigan Tech           15
St. Cloud State	        10
Vermont	                 7
Alaska                  21
Tie                      0
Dartmouth                4
Vermont                  4
RIT                      8
Notre Dame              22
St. Cloud State         21
Notre Dame              20

Note that according to the Pick 'Em rules, "Tie" was the winner of the GLI.

We do have some changes in the Battle for the Beagan as GoNanooks and SweeneyHawksHockey have overtaken SectionP with GoNanooks now in the lead by 1 game/3 points.

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Contestant          Points %
GoNanooks             .640
SweeneyHawksHockey    .630
SectionP              .621
Hockey John           .612
Soulbeaver            .606

There are 6 games scheduled for week 13. No bonus this week.

Week 13 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Another week, another group of quad winners, with SweeneyHawksHockey joined by our very own Critical Thinker and mbenecke along with Lakerchum. These four contestants picked up 16 out of 17 possible points missing only Augustana's Friday night shootout win over the Mavs. Well played folks, well played. And with this win, SweeneyHawksHockey now finds himself not only seven points ahead of GoNanooks for first in the race for the MacNaughton but also in first in the Battle for the Beagan! What a juggernaut, can anyone keep pace? Stick taps to beaverhockeyfan, Hockey John, Mikeeddy19, and PokeCheck who exhibited perfect picking on Friday going 3-for-3. Congrats. Here are the standings in the Battle for the Beagan:

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Contestant            Points %   Games
SweeneyHawksHockey     .646     122
GoNanooks              .637     122
Hockey John            .622     122
SectionP               .619     122
Soulbeaver             .608     122
iwearpurple            .605     122

With the changing of the calendars comes talk of the playoffs and the race for the Mason Cup. The playoff format will be the same as previous years; head-to-head matchups based on snake seeding from the regular season. Counting the "casual" contestants it looks like there are 26 spots taken which means as many as 6 first round byes. More details will be coming shortly. The best way to ensure your spot is to keep submitting those picks!

REMINDER: There is a Thursday game this week so get those picks in early. And...the bonus is back!

Week 14 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

All hail our week 14 winner, Tommiealum93 who was 100% perfect on picks this week (picked all 6 home teams to win) and also added 2 bonus points for a total score of 20 points. This is one of the most impressive weekly performances of the year, so congratulations! Shout out to Puck Master who came in second with 19 points missing only the Tommie's win on Saturday but picking up 4 bonus points. Turing our attention to the MacNaughton, the leaderboard has tightened considerably this week with 5 contestants now within 10 points of our leader, SweeneyHawksHockey.

Now, back to the bonus. Wow. The away teams really stunk it up this week scoring 9 measly goals in 6 games. While only 3 contestants picked up Away bonus points, there was a lot more action on the Home side with 10 contestants picking up at least one bonus point. mikeeddy19 and Soulbeaver lead the way, each correctly picking 25 goals scored by the home team. Interestingly enough, the three contestants who picked up away points did not pick up any home points. Here's how the bonus paid out:

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Contestant         Away Home Total
mikeeddy19           0    5    5
Soulbeaver           0    5    5
AgentClass           0    4    4
beaverhockeyfan      0    4    4
Puck Master          0    4    4
SectionP             0    4    4
Bronco Hockey Fan    0    3    3
iwearpurple          3    0    3
potternmu            0    2    2
Tommiealum93         2    0    2
GoNanooks            0    1    1
Lakerchum            1    0    1
PokeCheck            0    1    1

Here's another interesting tidbit...in the Race for the Sauer, only Lakerchum picked up points this week; the rest of the leaderboard whiffed. Here are the Sauer standings:

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Contestant	  Bonus
MTUHuskyGold        33
puckdude40          28
Lakerchum           27
Footballguy51       27
giwan               22
SweeneyHawksHockey  20
Redridge            20

Lastly, there is now a tie in the Battle for the Beagan with GoNanooks now tied with SweeneyHawksHockey, each with a .639 pick %.

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Contestant           Pick %   Games
SweeneyHawksHockey   .639      128
GoNanooks            .639      128
SectionP             .625      128
Hockey John          .625      128
Soulbeaver           .611      128

Playoff info will be posted later in the week.

With 10 games on tap for this week the bonus is taking a break.

Week 15 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

CCHA Pick 'Em Playoffs
Before we get to the playoff details, here are the links for this week's picks:
Week15 picks
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Now that we’re into the second half of the season it’s time to start thinking about bringin' home the hardware. As mentioned at the beginning of the season there are 4 awards:
o MacNaughton Cup - Awarded to the regular season champion as determined by total points
o Bill Beagan Trophy - Awarded to the contestant with the highest points percentage (based solely on picks, no bonus) during the regular season (must participate in 75% of the games to be eligible)
o Jeff Sauer Trophy - Awarded to the contestant with the most bonus points
o Mason Cup - Awarded to the playoff champion

Playoff Eligibility
This year all contestants will make the playoffs. Additionally, a contestant has to have been reasonably active in making weekly picks throughout most of the season, especially during the second half. I'm trying to keep this fair for contestants who've been involved all year while keeping it open for late arrivals who are showing a commitment without writing down a ton of rules. Final decisions are at the discretion of the commissioner. So far, everyone who has been submitting picks the past couple of weeks is currently in.

Playoff Seeding
Matches are head-to-head, single elimination with snake seeding for bracket pairings (1 vs. 32, 2 vs. 31, etc.). Seeding and tie breakers are determined in the following manner based on regular season results:
1) Total Points (including bonus)
2) Points (excluding bonus)
3) Total Points earned during the final 2 (or 3, or 4, or…) weeks of the CCHA regular season including bonuses until the tie is broken. Basically the “hotter” player down the stretch is favored
4) Based on the total number of playoff contestants, the top seeds may earn a bye in the first round (as of today the top 6ish seeds may qualify for a first round bye)

Playoff Rounds
o The first round will be based on the Friday, March 8th CCHA Quarterfinal playoff games with bonuses (4 games total, field reduced to 16).
o The second round will be based on the Saturday, March 9th CCHA Quarterfinal playoff games with bonuses (4 games total, field reduced from 16 to 8)
o Quarterfinals will be based on the first CCHA Semifinal playoff game with bonuses listed on CCHA.com held on Saturday, March 16th (1 game, field reduced from 8 to 4).
o Semifinals will be based on the second CCHA Semifinal playoff game with bonuses listed on CCHA.com held on Saturday, March 16th (1 game, field reduced from 4 to 2).
o The championship matchup will be based on the CCHA Championship game on March 22nd plus bonuses.

Scoring
o 3 pts for a win, 0 pts for a loss.
o 2-3 bonus questions for each round worth 1-5 points.
o In all cases, ties go to the higher seed.

Good luck!

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

First off, playoff info was posted last week. Scroll down for the details.

Congratulations to our very own Hockey John who, with 21 points, was our lone week 15 winner! With this win, Hockey John now finds himself within one point of our leader, SweeneyHawksHockey with GoNanooks only 2 points back in third. With 3/4 of the season in the rear view mirror there are 6 contestants within 10 points of the leader making this one of the most tightly contested Pick 'Em contests in history. It's anyone's hockey game.

Back to week 15...wow. Tough night on Friday as 3 contestants were 4-for-4 on the anti-picks (pocketing zero points). Additionally, zero contestants picked Ferris to upset the Lakers on Saturday, only beaverhockeyfan picked Augustana to upset the Mother Forkers on Friday, and Hockey John, SectionP, and Soulbeaver were the only 3 contestants to correctly pick Bowling Green's stunning and shocking upset of the Mavs on Friday.

Hockey John remains atop the standings in the Battle for the Beagan with a whopping .634 pick percentage. GoNanooks lurks only one point behind while SweeneyHawksHockey is two points back. Here's how the race stacks up:

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Contestant         Points %     Games
Hockey John         .634         138
GoNanooks           .631         138
SweeneyHawksHockey  .629         138
SectionP            .626         138
Soulbeaver          .613         138

The bonus is back for week 16.

Week 16 picks
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[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Bump. Here is some added playoff info, but first, the week 16 links:

Week16 picks
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It is looking like 26 playoff spots will be filled which at this time means the top 6 contestants will receive a first round bye. Interested in knowing your chances of landing a bye? Well wait no more:

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Contestant	     Top 6 Finish
Hockey John              73%
SweeneyHawksHockey       73%
MTUHuskyGold             71%
GoNanooks                62%
SectionP                 52%
puckdude40               51%
Soulbeaver               35%
Footballguy51            26%
iwearpurple              26%
mbenecke                 22%
Critical Thinker         20%
Tommiealum93             18%
giwan                    15%
mikeeddy19               13%
Manurespreader           11%
AgentClass              <10%
beaverhockeyfan         <10%
Bronco Hockey Fan       <10%
Icd80                   <10%
John J. MacInnes        <10%
Lakerchum               <10%
PokeCheck               <10%
potternmu               <10%
Puck Master             <10%
TalonsUpPuckDown        <10%

[footballguy51]

You typed that wrong next to my name. You wrote 26%. I think you meant 0%. Unless all of a sudden I develop a real knack for intuition, or some people have some really rough weeks, I'm just going to either hover or tumble. And to think, I was in the top 5 at one point this season.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

You typed that wrong next to my name. You wrote 26%. I think you meant 0%. Unless all of a sudden I develop a real knack for intuition, or some people have some really rough weeks, I'm just going to either hover or tumble. And to think, I was in the top 5 at one point this season.

You're 1-in-4 right now. I use a linear regression based on the number of points you've snapped up each week (including picks and bonuses), the total number of remaining points (including picks and bonuses), and a monte carlo simulation across the entire field consisting of 100 trials.

tl;dr - You're killing it on the bonus so you have a legit shot.