BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

gmartin · Post by **gmartin** » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:11 am

So as Lloyd Christmas in Dumb & Dumber would say, "so you're telling me there's a chance." I did some number crunching and ran several simulators and there is a way for Bowling Green to get an at-large bid with help and lots of help.

- First off, the Atlantic Hockey champ will come from outside the RPI pairwise 16 so BG will need to finish in the Top 15.

- Penn State needs to lose BOTH games against Minnesota next week AND lose in 1st round of Big 10 Tournament.

- Hockey East. Currently BC leading conference with RPI 21. Providence has PRI 8. Need Providence to win the conference tournament. If anybody else wins that will take away an at-large bid.

- Need Western Michigan to get swept this week by Minn Duluth and lose in 1st round of NCHC to finish under .500 and not qualify.

- Need Northern Michigan to split with Tech so BG can pass them as long as we win both games against Alabama-Huntsville.

- Michigan must lose tonight to ND AND then get swept next week by Arizona State AND lose in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament

- Omaha must also get swept next week by Colorado College AND lose in the first round of the nchc tournament.

- Finally, BG needs to sweep Alabama Huntsville. BG also need to sweep its opponent in the first round of the WCHA tournament. BG must also win its semifinal game against Northern Michigan. We need Northern Michigan to make it to the semifinals although if they would lose to the number 7 seed it would make it easier for us but for RPI purposes we need Northern to win nbg to beat Northern in the semifinals. BG can then lose the conference Championship Game and still come in with a pairwise of 14.

Being 14 allows room for one upset. You already know that Hockey Atlantic Champion will be from outside the top 16. This also allows a team like Boston U or BC to win its conference since Providence is clearly already in the field of 16.

So we have about a one-in-a-million chance to get an at-large bid but we do have a chance

TalonsUpPuckDown · Post by **TalonsUpPuckDown** » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:24 pm

You did pretty well. I tried a bunch of combinations (some you list above) that I thought might happen and couldn't get us higher than 15th.

gmartin · Post by **gmartin** » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:58 pm

The key is Michigan and Western Michigan need to lose to fall out of the top 16. I also think Northern Michigan must get to the semifinals and BG need to beat them to increase our RPI.

mbenecke · Post by **mbenecke** » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:37 pm

It would be nice, but I am completely focused on winning the conference tournament and taking the automatic bid.

TalonsUpPuckDown · Post by **TalonsUpPuckDown** » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:35 pm

mbenecke wrote:It would be nice, but I am completely focused on winning the conference tournament and taking the automatic bid.

What's encouraging about this is that Berge has a real good track record as a tournament coach. We got a shot here...

mbenecke · Post by **mbenecke** » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:58 pm

TalonsUpPuckDown wrote:
mbenecke wrote:It would be nice, but I am completely focused on winning the conference tournament and taking the automatic bid.
What's encouraging about this is that Berge has a real good track record as a tournament coach. We got a shot here...

I'm extra encouraged by our performance at the GLI. This team seems to flip the switch in a tournament setting. I'm excited for March.

gmartin · Post by **gmartin** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:28 am

I know I know. Win the WCHA. I'm aware of that. I just like crunching numbers. With Michigan winning last night against #1 ranked ND it now guarantees them at least a .500 winning percentage. So we can cross that scenario off the list. The highest BG can now go is #15. They can still sneak in if there are no other upsets in the conference tournaments. Meaning Providence needs to win its Conference tournament even though BC is currently the conference leader. I have confidence BG can win the WCHA. I actually think our toughest match up will be in the semi-finals against Northern Michigan.

mbenecke · Post by **mbenecke** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:28 am

I believe BG has a shot to win the WCHA, as well.

Northern is actually doing a split home-and-home with Tech this weekend. So tell me if this scenario seems realistic:

Friday night, we beat UAH. At the same time, Northern and Tech go to OT and nobody scores in the first OT, ensuring NMU gets less than 3 points. NMU gets a shootout win and takes 2 points.

The next afternoon, we beat UAH big, seeing that we're in a position where we could clinch home ice in the semifinals. Since we play before NMU, they will know our final score going in, and they'll know what type of result they need to stay ahead of us. They see that we won and that all the pressure is on them to win at Tech on their senior night. They crumble under the pressure and lose 3-1, and we clinch the 2-seed.

It's not actually that outlandish, to me.

gmartin · Post by **gmartin** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:36 am

Michigan Tech is 3 - 6 over its last nine games. They haven't been playing all that well. I see a split in the series. Each team winning on its home ice. Therefore making BG the #3 seed.

mbenecke · Post by **mbenecke** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:38 am

gmartin wrote:Michigan Tech is 3 - 6 over its last nine games. They haven't been playing all that well.

I totally get that. However, I'm fairly certain it's a rivalry, and it'll also be their senior night. And since they're the 5-seed, it actually likely is their last time getting to play there in front of their home crowd.

Last time they played NMU (back in November, seems like ages ago), they won 4-1 at home and lost 4-0 on the road. I could see a similar result, and I also believe they could steal a point on the road.

TalonsUpPuckDown · Post by **TalonsUpPuckDown** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:58 am

Tech split with ASU on home ice. And their coach got into a fight during the handshake. Hope that inspires them in Marquete.

gmartin · Post by **gmartin** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:31 am

And how did our senior night go. If I recall we lost our last home game so nothing is given on senior night, especially in the hockey.

mbenecke · Post by **mbenecke** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:40 am

gmartin wrote:And how did our senior night go. If I recall we lost our last home game so nothing is given on senior night, especially in the hockey.

Right, and that's fair. But we pretty much already knew it wasn't our last home game. With them, they know that going in it is their last chance to play at home. I just think they'll be tough to beat at home this weekend.

Also, I just saw the video of Tech's coach fighting after the game on twitter.. Talk about classless.

jpfalcon09 · Post by **jpfalcon09** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:54 am

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratin ... Matrix.php" target="_blank

According to CHN, BG has roughly a 16% chance to make it as an at-large. Slightly better odds winning the league tournament.

pdt1081 · Post by **pdt1081** » Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:18 am

mbenecke wrote:
Also, I just saw the video of Tech's coach fighting after the game on twitter.. Talk about classless.

Link? I don't do Twitter.

BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

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Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

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Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!

Re: BG still has chance at At Large Bid!!!!!