Halfway Point: WCHA & PWR Update

[mbenecke]

I thought that since we've reached the midway point of the season, it would be good to do a little write-up with some numbers, stats, and projections the rest of the way. All numbers should be accurate as of the time of this writing on Monday, December 17th at about 1:00pm.

In the last USCHO poll before the break, we were ranked #12. We have swept #3 Minnesota State since these rankings were released, but we will not receive another fresh poll until 1/7/19, after the Bemidji series.

We currently sit at 13-3-3, including 6-2-1 at home and 7-1-2 on the road. It's our first time hitting 13 wins by this date since the 1986-1987 season.

WCHA in the PairWise rankings:
#8 Minnesota State
#10 Bowling Green
#19 LSSU
#23 Michigan Tech
#32 Northern Michigan
#33 Bemidji State
#51 Alaska
#56 Ferris State
#58 UAH
#59 Anchorage

Each WCHA team has played 12 league games to this point, so here are the standings, with position, team, and points:

1. Michigan Tech - 29
2. Bowling Green - 28
3. Minnesota State - 27
4. Northern Michigan - 24
5. Bemidji State - 19
6. Lake Superior State - 19
7. Alaska - 14
8. Huntsville - 9
9. Ferris State - 7
10. Acnhorage - 4

Our top 5 scorers (with points and league rank):
1. Brandon Kruse - 25 pts, 1st
2. Max Johnson - 23 pts, 2nd
3. Lukas Craggs - 16 pts, 8th
4. Connor Ford - 15 pts, T-9th
5. Cameron Wright 13 pts, T-18th

Average PairWise ranking of each of the apparent contenders' remaining league opponents:

Bowling Green - 42.1
Minnesota State - 36.6
Michigan Tech - 28.5
Northern Michigan - 32.6

We appear to have the easiest road left, so we're in a very good position to win as many games as possible down the stretch. We truly control our own destiny at this point, so it is imperative that we take full advantage of that.

If there are other stats you feel like sharing or you would like for me to try to figure out, please let me know. I'm just a college kid enjoying his Christmas break, looking for something to talk about, Falcon-related. LOL

Looking forward to getting the boys some rest over the break so they can come out hot in the 2nd half. Enjoy the holidays, and go Falcons!

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Tech still has 2 with us (in Houghton), 4 with Mankato, and a final home-and-home with Northern. Mankato has those 4 games with Tech along with 2 each against Ferris, Lakers, Huntsville, and Alaska. Our away games are at Tech, Alaska, Bemidji, and Northern. I think Tech has the hardest schedule, looks pretty even between us and Mankato. It's setting up to be an exciting second half.

[BGFan]

Traditionally speaking our records in the first and second half of the seasons in recent years have been similar. Our record thus far is the best first half that we've had since "The Glory Years". Assuming we keep winning at this pace we're looking at a regular season record of around 26 wins (winning out would give us 29), with the possibility of hitting 30 through the tournament, a number we haven't seen in a very, very long time. Can we do it? If the team that showed up this past weekend keeps showing up for every game, then yes, very much so. One would think that self motivation shouldn't be an issue, but we've seen it happen in the past. I sure hope it doesn't happen this year because our remaining SOS is poor and too many losses can really hurt us in the PWR.

[Schadenfreude]

Would a pairwise of 10 get us in? I think so. Right?

[mbenecke]

Would a pairwise of 10 get us in? I think so. Right?

At this point, it would appear so. It would all depend on the results of conference tournaments. It would take something like 4 upsets right now during championship season for us to be left on the outside looking in. That said, there's a TON of hockey left to be played.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The pairwise is still pretty volatile. The variability right now is way too high and we still play a lot of lower ranked teams (by example, if we'd scored one goal the first game in Anchorage we'd be sitting in 7th). We have to nearly win out against the lower ranked teams. Unfortunately, a lot of those games are on the road including that second trip to AK. Of course KRACH currently has us sitting at #5. So what do I know.

Part of me still won't believe I actually sat in an arena and watched this this team drop 8 on the Buckeyes and sweep Mankato. We cannot be this good. Seriously. It's not possible...

[Falconwriter]

Thanks for the stats...love reading this stuff.

It was HUGE that BG swept Minnie State, since they only play them at BG this season.

Equally huge -- all other factors being even -- will be the series with Tech, since we only play them away.

This team showed us what it is capable of doing this past weekend. It was the same crew that played against Western and OSU early in the season. We need those guys to keep showing up every week.

It would be so awesome if BG could have one of those seasons we all dream about, with a league title and a trip to the Frozen Four. Take that NyQuil and cross your fingers!

[BGFan]

Getting Shilling back in the second half will be a plus. Our mini-slump in November started after he got hurt. Coincidence? I have no idea but is a senior and one of the leaders on the team.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Getting Shilling back in the second half will be a plus. Our mini-slump in November started after he got hurt. Coincidence? I have no idea but is a senior and one of the leaders on the team.

I felt the same way after he went down. I think he and Freddie are the two best forecheckers on the team.

[BGFan]

I love watching Freddie skate. Full bore all of the time! Not a huge scorer but he creates so much havoc whenever he's out there that he has to be driving the opponent nuts. Kind of like a gnat that you can't get rid of...

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Prior to the start of the season the group predicted the results for each series. Time for an update:

Code: Select all

                    --Predicted--      -------Actual-------
Series Records      Wins   Losses      Wins   Losses   Ties       Difference   Games Remaining
Mercyhurst            1      0           1      0                      0             0
Western Michigan      1      1           2      0                     +1             0
RMU                   2      0           1      1                     -1             0
Ohio State            1      1           1      0       1             +.5            0
Northern Michigan     2      2           1      1                      0             2 (A)
UAA                   2      0           1      0       1             -.5            0
Lake Superior         2      0           1      1                     -1             0
Alabama Huntsville    3      1           2      0                      0             2 (H)
Ferris State          3      1           1      0       1             -.5            2 (H)
Minnesota State       1      1           2      0                     +1             0
Bemidji State         2      2                                                       4 (H/A)
Michigan Tech         1      1                                                       2 (A)  
Alaska                3      1                                                       4 (H/A)

We're half a game under what we'd predicted. Good news is we are WAY over on teams projected to be better than us. Bad news...

[unfalconbelievable]

Thanks for sharing all the stats.

I couldn't find it put I'd have to think it's been a long time since we swept a Top 5 team in the country at home. I thought it might be back in the CCHA days with Michigan State in the legendary York v Mason battles. But looking through those years, we'd play home v home with them, ohio state, Michigan and Miami back then.

So it could have been the highest ranked team we've ever swept at home. Those that may have more resources feel free to throw in your two cents.

[pdt1081]

Would a pairwise of 10 get us in? I think so. Right?

At this point, it would appear so. It would all depend on the results of conference tournaments. It would take something like 4 upsets right now during championship season for us to be left on the outside looking in. That said, there's a TON of hockey left to be played.

Simple math is 6 leagues, 6 automatic qualifiers. 10th place AFTER all the league championships are decided is automatically safe.

[pdt1081]

NATIONALLY
2nd total goals scored with 70
8th goals per game 3.64
T-11th total goals allowed 33
1st average goals allowed 1.71
3rd penalties 126
5th penalty minutes 274
7th penalty kill 87.25%

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I like that ratio of penalty minutes to penalty kill. They don’t make you pay when you beat the heck out of them.