At large bid: What needs to happen?

[jpfalcon09]

While I'm confident in BG's chances on Saturday, we still need to consider the scenarios in case of a loss and the chances to receive an at-large bid. BG finds themselves exactly on the bubble. Depending upon what happens, BG could very well be the last team in or out depending on how things work out. There will be essentially four teams to watch that can knock out BG by winning their conference tournaments. They are:

NCHC: Winner of CC/WMU
Hockey East: BU or BC
ECAC: Brown

With Ohio State losing to Penn State, the Big Ten winner will leapfrog BG in PWR if they lose to MSU on Saturday, so that game is irrelevant. Obviously the greatest risk lies in Hockey East with a 50% chance of the conference winner stealing a bid.

BG can get a small amount of help if Robert Morris wins the AHA tournament, and even WMU advancing to the NCHC championship or winning its consolation game may benefit BG a small amount without having WMU jump over them.

It's going to be a long, long week.

[mbenecke]

Just to kinda throw out the numbers...

NCHC: #23 Colorado College/#17 Western Michigan

(Field is #6 Denver, #1 SCSU, and #4 Duluth, so we should be fine here)

Hockey East: #25 Boston or #34 Boston College

(Field is #2 UMass and #8 Northeastern, so you’d think we will be alright)

ECAC: #24 Brown

(Field is #11 Cornell, #12 Harvard, and #9 Clarkson, so you’d think we’d be alright)

Honestly, I feel really good about this. I want us to not have to worry about it and win our way in, but I think we SHOULD be fine regardless. Upsets happen, and that's just kinda part of the game, but I have a hard time seeing some of those top teams all losing to inferior teams. It may only take one, though.

Fingers crossed! Go Falcons!

[Falconwriter]

Obviously, winning Saturday takes all the mystery out of this. It's too bad this team was so schizophrenic most of the season. A few more wins against teams they should have beaten, and we probably aren't having this conversation. BG's pre-conference record was, on its own, good enough to get them that at-large bid. I will be rooting like crazy on Saturday. This team has the talent to win it all, even on the road. Whether they actually do it or not...well, I'm hoping we finally get a title. It's been too long.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

From reading various forums and message boards it appears the entire college hockey world is rooting against us this weekend. If you’re a bubble team you desperately need us to lose. If you’re already in you need us to lose to help your seeding. We are definitely relevant right now!

[TommyG]

BU and BC both have the talent to win the Hockey East tournament.

CC/Western/Brown don’t have much chance to win multiple games against their competition.

I don’t think we’ll win Saturday, but our chances are better than I thought they’d be for an at large. Better root hard against BC and BU.

[TommyG]

Keep in mind too, in 2008 the committee chose Wisconsin over Harvard for the last at large bid even though Harvard was 14 in the PWR and Wisconsin was 15.
With our schedule that precedent would be a concern. Don’t want to be that last team in by PWR.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Western shat the bed tonight. The team finishing 3rd in the Nachos doesn’t make the Frozen Faceoff.

Lots of analysis from PWR guys running various scenarios. Consensus is we’re in even if we lose to Mankato. Has anyone confirmed?

[AZIce]

Keep in mind too, in 2008 the committee chose Wisconsin over Harvard for the last at large bid even though Harvard was 14 in the PWR and Wisconsin was 15.
With our schedule that precedent would be a concern. Don’t want to be that last team in by PWR.

In 2008 that was a different set of rules. They still used the TUC (Team Under Consideration) then and only rated the top 25. They had no weighting from road wins and the committee still made some decisions. They put Wisky in because they were hosting a regional in Madison that year, not only did they get in but they got a #3 seed....in Madison....LOL!

That being said...you are correct. Don't be #15.
#15 has only gotten into the tourney twice in the last 8 years. Once was the year we finished 16 by .0002 and Providence won it all from the #15 spot.

Odds look good now for #15......but the odds from recent years also say SOMEBODY besides Atlantic Hockey is going to win a league tourney from below #15. Heck #14 hasn't made it in 3 times in that same time frame. #13 and #14 didn't make it last year

I think if we want in we better just win it ourselves...we may be able to sneak in from #15 with a loss, but man that will really be leaving it to chance as Coach Bergeron would say.

[jpfalcon09]

Western shat the bed tonight. The team finishing 3rd in the Nachos doesn’t make the Frozen Faceoff.

Lots of analysis from PWR guys running various scenarios. Consensus is we’re in even if we lose to Mankato. Has anyone confirmed?

Who needs to win what:

ECAC: Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard
Hockey East: Northeastern, UMass
NCHC: Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, St. Cloud State
Big Ten: Doesn't matter, winner will jump BG in PWR if they lose to Minnesota State
AHA: Doesn't matter, but Robert Morris winning would help BG slightly

Biggest risk is Hockey East where there's a 50% chance BC or BU will steal a bid. UMass is locked in as a #1 seed which concerns me, Northeastern has room to move up so they have more to play for. The best scenario is all the teams listed above win on Friday which would give BG the final at-large bid and relieve some pressure on Saturday night.

[Schadenfreude]

Have we established whether Bowling Green would fall, and if so how much, with a loss on Saturday?

[jpfalcon09]

Have we established whether Bowling Green would fall, and if so how much, with a loss on Saturday?

They fall to 15th in really all scenarios with a loss. That's why with the AHA getting one auto bid, 15th would be the final at-large placement assuming no one else steals a bid.

[Schadenfreude]

Have we established whether Bowling Green would fall, and if so how much, with a loss on Saturday?

They fall to 15th in really all scenarios with a loss. That's why with the AHA getting one auto bid, 15th would be the final at-large placement assuming no one else steals a bid.

Isn't the Big Ten also going to steal a bid at this point? If so, isn't the implication that we are out with a loss?

[mbenecke]

Actually, no. The Big 10 winner jumps us if we lose, so 15 is still the mark. It would no longer be stealing a bid, since they will finish inside the top 1, making 15 still the mark with no other upsets.

The Big Ten loser will be eliminated, so we won't have to worry about them, either.

[Freddie]

I have run every conceivable scenario through the USCHO pairwise predictor and this is what I see, IF WE LOSE Saturday:

Whoever wins the B10 champ game (PSU or ND) will pass us, but the loser is done.
Providence (Idle this weekend after losing HEA qtrs.) also moves above us, just barely.
This would drop us to #15.
We know the 16 seed will go to the auto qualifier from AHA.

So, if ANY ONE of these 4 sleepers win their conference tournaments, we're screwed;

#24 Boston University OR #34 Boston College in Hockey East
#25 Brown in ECAC
#23 Colorado College in NCHC

[jpfalcon09]

I have run every conceivable scenario through the USCHO pairwise predictor and this is what I see, IF WE LOSE Saturday:

Whoever wins the B10 champ game (PSU or ND) will pass us, but the loser is done.
Providence (Idle this weekend after losing HEA qtrs.) also moves above us, just barely.
This would drop us to #15.
We know the 16 seed will go to the auto qualifier from AHA.

So, if ANY ONE of these 4 sleepers win their conference tournaments, we're screwed;

#24 Boston University OR #34 Boston College in Hockey East
#25 Brown in ECAC
#23 Colorado College in NCHC

Correct. I went back and changed a couple results. BG with be 5th right now without the losses to Huntsville and Robert Morris. Two games separated them from being a lock to a bubble team.