vs. Minnesota State (2/20-21)

[mbenecke]

Following the South Dakota Split, our Falcons (16-8-6) return home for a pivotal series on the penultimate weekend of the regular season, as they host the Minnesota State Mavericks (16-9-5). Friday night's contest will begin at 7:07pm, with Saturday's Senior Night and Sic Sic Reveal is scheduled to begin at 6:07pm. Both games, as always, are able to be streamed through Midco.

Folks, it cannot be overstated how crucial this series is. Our Falcons can still finish anywhere from 1st to 5th in the CCHA standings, so it's imperative that we keep stacking wins and points against teams that are close to us in the CCHA standings. We're only 5 points out of first place, with 2 games in hand and the ability to play the leader (Tech) still ahead of us. But for now, we're focused on the Mavs - who had won 4 straight prior to a Saturday OT loss against Bemidji.

All we need to know about the Mavs is that they once again have one of the best goalies in the conference in Alex Tracy, and the rest of their lineup is almost completely different from previous years. We drew them twice in their building back in November, and we haven't beaten them outright since January 2024, and that was the lone win in 17 (yes, 17) tries against the Mavs dating back to the 2019-2020 regular season. This is a program that has had our number, so it would be quite meaningful if we are able to break through that streak and win some hockey games this weekend.

Go Falcons!

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I've been keeping an ELO projection throughout the second half of the season. Here's where things stand:



Tommies, Tech, Beavs, Lakers, 'Dawgs are set in the 1-2 and 6-8 spots while Northern is out. We're in the best shape out of us, Mavs, Viqueens for home ice but realistically it's still 3-for-2. Good news is Vikings only have 2 games remaining, both against the Tommies. Finishing third brings the Beavers to the Slate. Finishing 4th or 5th pits us against either the Vikings or Mavs.

If you're wondering, a red 0% means that out of 2000 trials there were zero scenarios that occurred. A yellow 0% means that out of 2000 trials there were less than 10 scenarios that occurred. For example, there's a non-zero chance the Mavs could win the MacNaughton (actually it's 2 out of 2000 for a whopping 0.1% probability) but, yeah, forget about it. They're cooked.

[unfalconbelievable]

Win 4 in a row and Tommies have to split this weekend. That recipe would get us the #1 seed. Next weekend, will take care of itself if we take care of this weekend.

[Hockey John]

I would not say that Tech is locked in at 2 since they are down to 2 games left against BG.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The model is predictive based on how well each team is/isn't playing, who each team still has left to play, and whether a team is at home or on the road. Doing straight math, sure, add 12 points to our current total to get to 55 and from there we can claim the MacNaughton if the Tommies stub their toes. The math says there's a 7% chance of that happening. To overtake Tech, we have to sweep them...on the road in the Mac because we lose on tiebreaker #2. The likelihood of that happening is 18%. I agree with you that these scenarios are possible and I'd be thrilled if either came to fruition but I'm not holding my breath.

Our magic number with the Viqueens is basically* 8. Any point combination of BG wins and Viqueen losses that adds up to 8 points puts us ahead of them and guarantees home ice. So if we win 2-of-4 and the Tommies win 1-of-2 this weekend I'll see you at the Slate for the first round of the playoffs.

Our magic number with the Mavs is 10 so a 5-point weekend this week puts them away as we'd win on tiebreaker 1 at the moment and currently lead on tiebreaker 2.

Getting a combination of 10 points with 4 games left would put us in third place. There's a 41% chance of that happening. I'm rooting for the Tommies this weekend.

*Tiebreaker 3 would come into play and while we're ahead at this point it could come down to OTW/OTL.

[pdt1081]

Hey look, McInchak is in town. YAY

[mbenecke]

1-0 Mavs.

[mbenecke]

BG quickly ties it back up 1-1.

[mbenecke]

Falcons lead 3-1 after the first period on goals from Hotson, Martin, and Minville.

[mbenecke]

Mankato nets another. 3-2 BG.

[mbenecke]

BG takes a bad penalty, Mavs tie it up. Can’t give good teams like this chances.

3-3 in the second.

[BGhockeyfan94]

Not sure how you don’t call a penalty that leads to their second goal or call the penalty against us for a play that has happened 4-5 times already this game, and they tie it on the PP. Someone must have got a phone call from Minnesota between periods

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

What about the embellishment? Gee whiz!

[mbenecke]

And now Mankato leads 4-3. What a disaster.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Implosion. Gave this game away.