Bracketology 1/20

[gmartin]

Latest projections have BG playing Dayton. Win that and then play the #3 seed. I like that projection.

[gmartin]

Today's projection is a #11 seed playing Michigan St in Durham. They do have a #10 seed playing in Toledo. Maybe we can get lucky and play in Toledo.

[Flipper]

I would love to draw MSU...that's a winnable first round match up against a Big 10ish opponent.

[AyZiggy97]

For at-large (gasp) purposes:

BG is up to #26 in the RPI to start the week (3/10). That would have to be on the good side of the bubble.

The Falcons are #28 in the Massey Ratings http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s ... b=NCAA%20I" target="_blank

More concerning is that Sagarin Ratings has them at #41. That's directly behind bubble teams Minnesota, Vanderbilt, and Rutgers.

http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php" target="_blank


Central Michigan is still mid-30s in the RPI, but #69 in Sagarin and #73 in Massey. Ouch.

[bgsufalcon24]

For at-large (gasp) purposes:

BG is up to #26 in the RPI to start the week (3/10). That would have to be on the good side of the bubble.

The Falcons are #28 in the Massey Ratings http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s ... b=NCAA%20I" target="_blank

More concerning is that Sagarin Ratings has them at #41. That's directly behind bubble teams Minnesota, Vanderbilt, and Rutgers.

http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php" target="_blank


Central Michigan is still mid-30s in the RPI, but #69 in Sagarin and #73 in Massey. Ouch.

I'm surprised that Sagarin has us so much lower than RPI. If I remember my criteria, RPI depends more on strength of schedule when ranking teams while Sagarin depends more on home/away wins and margin of victory, and you'd figure BG would have stronger metrics there as opposed to SOS, which is just average/mediocre at 146.

I'm not sure how much the committee looks at Sagarin as compared to RPI and SOS, as those seem to be the 2 most commonly used metrics outside of pure win-loss record. I suppose they are all tools to help them select teams.

What I can say is that no team with an RPI in the 20s was excluded from last year's NCAA tournament, nor the year previous. Everything's looking good assuming we don't somehow get beat in the semifinals. That's still the one scenario I see in which we don't make it. A final loss to CMU or Akron won't impact our numbers appreciably.

I looked pretty heavily at the other bubble teams yesterday. Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Florida, St Josephs, etc...they all have solid wins, in fact Vanderbilt and Florida especially have some very good wins. But every one of these teams also has some really terrible defeats too. As far as I can tell, BG is the only team on the bubble without losing to a team outside of RPI top 50. That's very significant.