Ay-Ziggy-Zoomba.com

With all the talk about our at large chances I thought it would be interesting to start a thread tracking some of the main computer ranking sites.

RealTimeRPI and CollegeRPI both try to mimic the NCAA's RPI formula. RPI is just one of many things the selection committee looks at along with such things as how strong a team finished the regular season, how they preformed on the road and at neutral sites, how they did in their league tourny, strength of schedule, etc...

Sagarin and Massey both take a lot of these things into account in their rankings and therefore, I think, are more realistic views of what our chances of receiving an at large bid. Realistically we need to be in the 30's to have a shot at an at large bid.

Here are the teams we have played that are top 100 teams. The higher they're ranked the better for us.

Sagarin................................Massey.............................RealTimeRPI.com..................CollegeRPI.com
7 Ohio State...........................5 Ohio State.......................6 Ohio State..........................5 Ohio State
27 Vanderbilt.......................31 Vanderbilt.....................17 Hartford...........................24 Vanderbilt
46 Hartford..........................42 Hartford........................19 Vanderbilt........................32 Hartford
48 Bowling Green................43 Bowling Green................44 Marist..............................41 Marist
57 Marist.............................51 Marist............................48 Eastern Michigan..............66 Eastern Michigan
65 Eastern Michigan............59 Eastern Michigan............49 Bowling Green..................67 Toledo
69 St Bonaventure...............74 Toledo.............................64 Toledo............................83 Bowling Green
82 Toledo...........................77 St Bonaventure.................82 St Bonaventure................92 St Bonaventure

More later.

I would point out as a reference, we were 35th in the realtimerpi rankings the day prior to the selection last season. I don't know our exact number for the Sagarin rankings, but I know that it was pretty similar. Collegerpi had us much lower, I don't know why, but it seems their model really discriminates based on the strength of schedule, which hurts teams from outside of the BCS conferences.

I don't claim to understand the RPI junk...and I do think it's junk BTW.... but it would appear that the loss to St. Bonaventure is the worst possible scenario for us... they're not rated highly by any of these sites...

Of course, the fact that we've got these losses on the road doesn't seem to matter...

bgsufalcon24 wrote:I would point out as a reference, we were 35th in the realtimerpi rankings the day prior to the selection last season. I don't know our exact number for the Sagarin rankings, but I know that it was pretty similar. Collegerpi had us much lower, I don't know why, but it seems their model really discriminates based on the strength of schedule, which hurts teams from outside of the BCS conferences.

Agreed. What killed us last year was the fact that our only win against a top 50 RPI team was against Ball State and we had two loses to teams outside the top 100 (Valpo and Miami). Remember RPI is just one tool the selection committee looks at. This year we will have a quality win against Vandy (on the road, which is huge), and against E Mich and Toledo (not to count our chickens but if we haven't beaten them we won't make it to 35) along with a much higher strength of schedule. If we can somehow make it back to 35 this year I like our chances, I just don't know if we can get there.

Class of 61 wrote:I don't claim to understand the RPI junk...and I do think it's junk BTW.... but it would appear that the loss to St. Bonaventure is the worst possible scenario for us... they're not rated highly by any of these sites...

Of course, the fact that we've got these losses on the road doesn't seem to matter...

St. Bonaventure's current ranking is not a problem because there are almost 350 teams on the list which means a ranking of 100 or better puts them in the top 25% of D1 schools. It would be a problem if they fall further because a loss to a team outside the top 100 is considered a negative by the selection committee.

As far as losses on the road, it does matter. The RPI formula multiplies road loses times .6 and road wins times 1.4 (likewise home wins count .6 and home losses count 1.4).

ESPN's Charlie Creme has released his latest guess at what the NCAA brackets would look like if
a) the season ended today and
b) he was a one man selection committee.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology#" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He has the BG women as the lone representative from the MAC as a 12th seed. His highest (or lowest depending on your choice of terminology) seeded at-large team is Vermont as an 11 seed, meaning he doesn't rate them good enough to make it if they don't win the MAC Tourny. On the plus side, a 12 seed is almost an 11 seed and it doesn't seem impossible to move up with a prolonged winning streak.

We got a bit of a bump by beating Eastern, beating Toledo would give us another, winning out in the regular season would move us up some more, then in the Mac tourney we would face either Eastern or Toledo in the semi-finals meaning another bump. What the heck, lets just win in the finals and all these polls wouldn't matter.

(Last weeks rankings in parenthesis)

Sagarin_________________________ Massey________________________ RealTimeRPI.com______________ CollegeRPI.com
9 Ohio State (7)_________________ 5 Ohio State(5)_________________ 9 Ohio State (6)_________________ 9 Ohio State (5)
31 Vanderbilt (27)______________ 34 Vanderbilt (31)______________ 17 Hartford (17)________________ 25 Vanderbilt (24)
35 Hartford (46)________________ 37 Bowling Green (43)__________ 28 Vanderbilt (19)______________ 27 Hartford (32)
43 Bowling Green (48)__________ 38 Hartford (42)________________ 44 Marist (44)_________________.. 40 Marist (41)
58 Marist (55)__________________ 55 Marist (51)_________________.. 45 Eastern Michigan (48)________ 65 Eastern Michigan (66)
64 St Bonaventure(69)__________ 64 Eastern Michigan (59)________ 47 Bowling Green(49)___________ 71 Bowling Green (83)
71 Eastern Michigan (65)_______ 72 St Bonaventure (77)_________.. 67 Toledo(64)_________________.. 82 Toledo (67)
86 Toledo (82)_________________ 73 Toledo (74)__________________ 85 St Bonaventure(82)__________. 91 St Bonaventure (92)