How many Wins next year since Omar's gone?

[Flipper]

Must...stay...away..from ...knives...life...no...longer...worth...living....

[Rightupinthere]

Thank God for basements. You'll find me there when the sky falls.

And no, I'm not adding to the discussion because this discussion is about as worthwhile as a monkey humping a football.

[Bleeding Orange]

The ground is burning, folks. Watch your feet.

Who is this Omar guy anyways? I remember a Turner, but Omar?

[BGSUfalcons]

I think I predicted 12 a few weeks back. I'll stick with that although I could see BG winning as few as 8 (that is if 8 wins doesn't win the east and that BG doesn't make a bowl at 8-4).

There is something very wrong with those picking 3 or 4 wins.

[NYFalcon94]

Thank God for basements. You'll find me there when the sky falls.

And no, I'm not adding to the discussion because this discussion is about as worthwhile as a monkey humping a football.

I think that would make for a better discussion thread.

[mualum78]

Have faith, people! We were sad to see Big Ben leave, but Josh didn't do too badly and we even went to a bowl game the very next year. Bleeding Orange is right, it's not the end of the world! Have faith, enjoy what success you'll have and support your team. I came up for the Akron game. Turner didn't do too badly, he may surprise you. The 2006 season is a long way off and lots of good things can happen by then. Best of luck in '06 (except, of course, when you play my RedHawks)!

[orangeandbrown]

Why is a six-win prediction "the end of the world." That's how many games I thought we would win before Omar left, and its how many games I thought we would win after he left. We're just hurting for skill players next year.

[mualum78]

I wasn't referring to any one post, I was only trying to add a 'been there, done that' point from experience. The general 'mood' of this thread is sad and lamenting, so I thought I would try to lighten it up a little.

[factman]

I may be one of the few (probably not), but I have a lot of faith in Coach Brandon designing an offense around his personnel, and I think he will do the same for 2006. We had a very good offense with J5, it changed quite a bit and actually got better with OJ, althought it wasn't near as diverse, and now it is time to become even more diverse with AT than it was with J5. AT is a better passer than J5 but not as good as Omar. He is a much better runner than OJ, but not as powerful as J5, but a little shiftier and a better chance to break off a long run.......it's gonna be fun!!!!
I am looking for an exciting offense, and improved defense, improved special teams, and at least 8 wins. BG will be fun to watch in 2006.

[old guy]

As you should know by now, I make my evaluations of BG football based mostly on defense--since a good defense will keep a team in a lot of games regardless of offense. So from my standpoint it really doesn't make much difference if Jacobs or Turner is the quarterback. Based on defensive performance this past year, defensive player losses, and the players we have coming back, I think it will be a very, very good year if we win five games. All things considered, I would not be suprised if the win total were less. (The OC schedule and away conference games also play a big part in the equation.) Now, perhaps we will have a boatload of great red-shirt freshmen step in or some great freshmen recruits come in and play great defense--that is possible--but as yet to be seen. So right now, based on what I see coming back on defense, I think it will be a very tough year. I like the two young guys in the secondary and the pass rushing options with Briggs, but beyond that, I still see little hope of stopping the run--which is our main defensive liability. As I have said, that equation may change with the addition of new or redshirted players. If new guys can come in and stop the run, then who knows what will happen. But unless that happens, I don't see our defense keeping things close enough for us to win a lot of games. (As a side bar--If this year's recruiting holds, I see hope for the future. I very much like some of the defensive talent coming in. If we can land them all and keep them in school, then I think the potential is there for a good defense two or three years down the road. Unfortunately I don't think it will help us much in the near term.)

[orangeandbrown]

MUAlum--I understand. Likewise, I was responding to the general notion (which has extended to numerous threads for several weeks) that someone who thinks this team with this schedule will have to work hard to win six games has somehow given up on the entire program, getting knives out, not supportive, etc.

It is a perfectly plausible scenario that this team, with this schedule, goes 6-6 next year. Its not hysterical, its not "no water in the glass at all" thinking, and its not an indictment of anyone. Its not the end of the world, nor is anyone saying it is.

Here's why I feel that way.

A talented and seasoned BG team was 6-5 this year. Yes, there were injuries. In 2006, the injured players will be gone for the whole season. Less proven players are in their place.

Now, we start with two non-home games against Wisconsin and OSU. I do not believe there is any reason to think we win those games.

We have a tough road game against UT--the class of the MAC today. We also have tough road games against Akron and CMU.

2005 showed us that home games aren't gimmees anymore, either. We have tough home games against Boise and Miami as well.

Yes, I understand Turner will be better prepared. I thought six wins was the likely scenario with Omar, because I don't think he had the tools to work with. Its more likelly now.

Yes, I understand we say we have strong young players coming in. I just thinking winnning eight games is drawing an inside straight.

I hope we do. I really do.

MU--a lot more of your supporting cast was back to help Betts, IIRC.

Finally, Factman, I think you are basically correct. But why didn't we have that for the games AT played this year? And J5 had PJ Pope in the backfield, and Magner, Sharon, Sanders to go to. Macon, Partrdige and Parks have a ways to go to show that kind of talent.

[BGSUfalcons]

As you should know by now, I make my evaluations of BG football based mostly on defense--since a good defense will keep a team in a lot of games regardless of offense. So from my standpoint it really doesn't make much difference if Jacobs or Turner is the quarterback. Based on defensive performance this past year, defensive player losses, and the players we have coming back, I think it will be a very, very good year if we win five games. All things considered, I would not be suprised if the win total were less. (The OC schedule and away conference games also play a big part in the equation.) Now, perhaps we will have a boatload of great red-shirt freshmen step in or some great freshmen recruits come in and play great defense--that is possible--but as yet to be seen. So right now, based on what I see coming back on defense, I think it will be a very tough year. I like the two young guys in the secondary and the pass rushing options with Briggs, but beyond that, I still see little hope of stopping the run--which is our main defensive liability. As I have said, that equation may change with the addition of new or redshirted players. If new guys can come in and stop the run, then who knows what will happen. But unless that happens, I don't see our defense keeping things close enough for us to win a lot of games. (As a side bar--If this year's recruiting holds, I see hope for the future. I very much like some of the defensive talent coming in. If we can land them all and keep them in school, then I think the potential is there for a good defense two or three years down the road. Unfortunately I don't think it will help us much in the near term.)

I'm a bit more optimistic about the defense since, although BG lost some starters in some key areas, overall there are a lot of players returning on the 2-deep (and they got some experience last season).

[BGGrad01]

Finally, Factman, I think you are basically correct. But why didn't we have that for the games AT played this year? And J5 had PJ Pope in the backfield, and Magner, Sharon, Sanders to go to. Macon, Partrdige and Parks have a ways to go to show that kind of talent.

I agree that 6 wins is a very real possibility. However, I think the defense will be much better next year and it will make us a MAC East contender.

In regards to the above quote, when J5 was a senior, PJ Pope, Sharon, and Sanders were all sophomores. PJ had 500-some rushing yards during his freshman year. Sharon had 30-some catches, but he dropped nearly that many. Sanders was a nobody and really didn't do a ton until later on in that year. Magner was working his way towards becoming a good receiver. If you compare those guys (after the 2002 season) to the players we have coming back, I think the groups are similar. Pope and Thomas had similar rushing stats during their freshman years. If Bobby can develop the receiving skills of PJ, then we may be in business. We can't forget about Macon either. As far as the receivers, Corey Partridge reminds me of Cole, only faster. Parks could turn into Sharon, we just don't know. I am hopeful that one of the redshirts can step up to be a Steve Sanders-type. My point is that Josh was certainly a better QB heading into that year than AT is currently, but the talent surrounding the QB is similar IMO. We have a lot of question marks going into next year, just like I believe we had question marks at the skill positions heading into 2003.

[orangeandbrown]

Fair enough. I don't want to go back and forth because I think that's a valid perspective. The J5 senior year team was also getting a new coach....I just object to the notion that predicting 6-wins is ridiculously negative or akin to "the end of the world."

[Germainfitch1]

Actually I had discussed my feelings that we would be worse by a great deal without Omar than with him next year about two months ago. The reason I gave then as I did now was that we were losing almost all ofensive continuity. I was just building on that.

So you were just trying to get a rise out of people during a traumatic moment? When gas stations do a similar thing after a natural disaster or a terrorist attack it is called "price gouging."

"Get a rise out of people?" Name a better time to re-discuss the issue than right after Omar decides to leave and we know we will be without him next year.