Update on Bowl Chances

[Flipper]

The MCB has delusions of grandeur down the road. I recall some media hype from George Perles about the game eventually becoming an additional BCS bowl. With that mindset in place, I think there'd be an awful lot of pressure on the Big 10 and OSU to honor the commitment that the #7 or whatever Big 10 team play in the game (if that is indeed where OSU places).

Or maybe I'm just clinging to the hope that we'll get a chance to kick their asses...

[Schadenfreude]

I don't know if I buy all of this talk about how we could never play Ohio State in the MCB. People keep saying that they will refuse to play in such a 'mediocre bowl.'

That's not my argument.

My argument is that other bowls tied to the Big Ten will refuse to let Ohio State drop that far, regardless of the standings. Somewhere along the way, an Alamo, a Sun or a Music City will ignore the standings and grab Ohio State early.

I don't know how much flexibility the bowls have to ignore the standings, but they do have some.

3. If Ohio State ends up in the MCB they will show up because Ohio State will never refuse money wherever they can get it, and they can get money in Detroit.

I assume the Big Ten's haul during bowl season is shared among the schools in much the same way that television and NCAA tournament revenue is shared.

Ohio State wouldn't turn down the Motor City Bowl because:

1. The Big Ten wouldn't allow them to do so and would probably impose a huge fine.
2. Ohio State's fear of the MAC would quickly become a national story

[Schadenfreude]

In my opinion, assuming we don't make the MACC, I believe our only hope is for an at-large bid to another bowl.

I agree that's our best hope.

First of all, we really really need to take care of business at Toledo. If we do that, I figure we have a 90 percent chance of getting to a bowl game.

The best shot is if a third bowl materializes. I think it's a good shot.

If a third bid doesn't materialize, I do think there is still a good chance we could go to a bowl game. It would help tremendously if MAC East champ -- either Miami or Akron -- lost in the title game.

Consider the choice in that scenario: A fairly beaten up MAC East champ or a nationally ranked Bowling Green. I think we'd get the second bowl bid.

[OptionQB]

By the Option count I have 49 bowl eligible teams at this point right now. That includes the Independents (Navy and Notre Dame), all of the MAC schools, both of the Sun Belt schools and the WAC group.

Again here's my count:(by conference)

-ACC: 5
-Big 11 (or 10): 6
-Big XII: 6
-C DOA: 3
-Big East: 3
-Indys: 2
-MAC: 5
-MWC: 3
-Pac 10: 4
-SEC: 7
-Sun Belt: 2
-WAC: 3

*The Pac 10 is guaranteed a fifth team as Oregon and Oregon State play in the "Civil War" this weekend and both are 5-5, the winner obviously goes bowling.

*Saturday teams that the Falcons should root for are: (by conference)
-Duke, at home against 5-5 UNC and coming off first ACC victory.
-South Carolina, on the road v. Clemson(ACC) who is 5-5
-Virginia Tech, actually a Thursday game at home v. 4-5 Maryland
-Miami, I know, it was hard to type it, but the Canes at home with 4-5 Wake
-Illinois, at 5-5 Northwestern
-Penn State, home v. 5-5 Michigan State
*Both MSU and N'Western then play at Hawaii on back to back weekends to end the season.
-Kansas State, home v. 5-4 Iowa State
-Kansas, on the road v. Gary Pinkell's Tigers. Gotta love Mangino for the BCS comments . . . I'll root Rock Hawk Jayhawk despite the retraction.
-TCU at home v. 5-3 Southern Miss. This actually a double edged sword. USM gets in with 1 win and has 3 tries. This being the "most likely." TCU needs to win both games.
-Buffalo on the road v. UConn.
-Navy, home v. Rutgers
-Western Michigan playing their hearts out for Darnell at 5-5 Marshall
-Urban Legend's Utes home against 5-5 BYU
-Mississippi State v. 4-5 Arkansas
-Utah State and their lame duck coach v. 5-5 New Mexico State
-Bowl eligible Troy v. 5-5 Middle Tennessee State
-Boise v. 5-5 La Tech
-Idaho v. 4-5 Hawaii
-Fresno v. 5-5 Nevada

*All three WAC teams were are rooting against play 12 game schedules and I think a 6-6 record gets them in. Which is unfortunate. Many of the teams we are rooting against this week, we will actually be rooting for next week, once they are mathmatically eliminated of course.

I'll try to keep track of things and update you all as we go.

[redhawk95]

Miami(OH) would be 8-4 if they beat Akron and lose in the MACC and Akron is 6-4 right now so they would be 7-5 if they beat Miami(OH) and lose in the MACC game. BG would go in either of those cases.

that's probably correct, but i don't know if i'd make travel plans just yet.

[rollalong94]

Here's what the Cleveland Plain Dealer had today about the MAC getting a Silicon Bowl invite:
http://www.cleveland.com/collegesports/ ... 315471.xml

And here's their take on the Buckeyes:

Ohio State (6-4, 3-4) can probably clinch a berth in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio against a Big 12 opponent (Oklahoma State, Texas A&M or Texas Tech) by defeating Michigan.

A loss by the Buckeyes could bump them down to the Sun Bowl against a team from the Pacific 10, most likely Arizona State, UCLA or the Oregon-Oregon State winner.

[orangeandbrown]

What's the West Coast Conference? Obviously, good news for the MAC, if it comes true.

[Schadenfreude]

What's the West Coast Conference? Obviously, good news for the MAC, if it comes true.

Gosh Elton Alexander is error prone.

He meant the WAC. (There is a West Coast Conference, but it's Division I-AAA with schools like Pepperdine and, I think, Gonzaga).

Quite a few people have been projecting Fresno State for that bowl.

I think Fresno State vs. Bowling Green has a nice familiar ring to it.

I disagree with his apparent assumption that a third bowl is the only way a nondivision winner goes bowling. That's tradition, but it isn't iron clad.

[BGSUfanatUT]

*All three WAC teams were are rooting against play 12 game schedules and I think a 6-6 record gets them in. Which is unfortunate.

I do believe that the teams with a 12 game schedule this year need 7 wins to become bowl elligible.

[Warthog]

If we beat Toledo, I think the GMAC will grab us right away, regardless of the NIU-EMU outcome. They have first choice since their game is played early in the bowl season. If we beat Toledo, we have the best record in the MAC and will have won 8 in a row. They are not obligated to take either of the division winners. The MCB then has to take the winner of the MACC game. But UT, NIU, Miami would all have a shot at an at-large bid somewhere else.

[Schadenfreude]

If we take care of business at Toledo, I'm sort of penciling this in:

Northern Illinois to the GMAC (against Memphis)
Bowling Green to the Silicon Valley (against Fresno State)
Toledo/Miami/Akron to the Motor City (against Northwestern)

Why:

1. Northern Illinois is likely to finish with the MAC's best attendance. Also, they made headlines in Alabama a year ago for beating the Crimson Tide. They won't be seen as pushovers.

2. Fresno State is the likely opponent in San Jose, and our history of bowl games against Fresno State will be too good to pass up. Let's face it: Sports nuts run these bowls, and they'll appreciate the history. Also, I don't think we ever embarassed ourselves with the crowds we took out there (at least in relative terms; the Cal and Vegas bowls were always tough for the MAC to support).

3. The Motor City is easiest for the MAC to support, meaning they might be talked into the riskier choice of Miami or Akron (or Toledo, which isn't a risky choice; they'll support the game). Also, by not taking Bowling Green, they avoid a Bowling Green-Northwestern rematch.

I'm not sure how it would play out if we lose at Toledo. I don't want to think about it. It might be ungood.

A final note: That would a challenging bowl schedule for us. I'm not sure we would be favored in any of those games.

[transfer2BGSU]

Who's going bowling?

With 28 bowl games on tap this postseason, it's a challenge to predict the matchups even before a number of schools are even eligible. But USATODAY.com college football editor Erick Smith will give it his best shot. Below are the list of the games, dates and conference affiliations for each of the bowls. In some cases, the teams projected to play are not yet bowl eligible or are not members of the affiliated conferences.

2004-05 bowl schedule

Date/time
(all ET) Bowl Site Conference affiliation Projected matchup

Tue., Dec. 14
8 p.m.
New Orleans New Orleans Sun Belt vs. Conference USA North Texas vs. UAB
Tue., Dec. 21
7:30 p.m.
Tangerine Orlando ACC vs. Big 12 Virginia vs. Iowa State
Wed., Dec. 22
8 p.m.
GMAC Mobile, Ala. Conference USA vs. MAC or WAC Southern Mississippi vs. Northern Illinois
Thu., Dec. 23
6:30 p.m.
Fort Worth Fort Worth Conference USA vs. Big 12 Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech
Thu., Dec. 23
9:45 p.m.
Las Vegas Las Vegas Mountain West vs. Pac-10 Brigham Young vs. Northwestern*

Fri., Dec. 24
7 p.m.
Hawaii Honolulu Conference USA vs. WAC Memphis vs. Texas-El Paso
Mon., Dec. 27
2 p.m.
MPC Computers Boise WAC vs. ACC Boise State vs. North Carolina
Mon., Dec. 27
5:30 p.m.
Motor City Detroit MAC vs. Big Ten Miami (Ohio) vs. Minnesota
Tue., Dec. 28
6:30 p.m. Independence Shreveport, La. SEC vs. Big 12 Alabama vs. Nebraska
Tue., Dec. 28
9:45 p.m.
Insight Phoenix Pac-10 vs. Big East or Notre Dame Oregon vs. Notre Dame

Wed., Dec. 29
4:30 p.m.
Houston Houston Big 12 vs. SEC Colorado vs. Georgia Tech*
Wed., Dec. 29
8 p.m.
Alamo San Antonio Big 12 vs. Big Ten Oklahoma State vs. Purdue
Thu., Dec. 30
1 p.m.
Continental Tire Charlotte ACC vs. Big East Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

Thu., Dec. 30
4:30 p.m. Emerald Bowl
San Francisco Mountain West vs. Pac-10 Bowling Green* vs. Connecticut*

Thu., Dec. 30
8 p.m.
Holiday San Diego Pac-10 vs. Big 12 Arizona State vs. Texas A&M
Thu., Dec. 30
11 p.m.
Silicon Valley San Jose, Calif. WAC vs. Pac-10 Fresno State vs. Navy*
Fri., Dec. 31
noon Music City Nashville Big Ten vs. SEC Ohio State vs. South Carolina
Fri., Dec. 31
2 p.m. Sun El Paso Pac-10 vs. Big Ten UCLA vs. Michigan State
Fri., Dec. 31
3:30 p.m. Liberty Memphis Mountain West vs. Conference USA New Mexico vs. Louisville
Fri., Dec. 31
7:30 p.m. Peach Atlanta SEC vs. ACC Virginia Tech vs. Florida
Sat., Jan. 1
11 a.m. Outback Tampa Big Ten vs. SEC Iowa vs. LSU
Sat., Jan. 1
11 a.m. Cotton Dallas SEC vs. Big 12 Georgia vs. Texas
Sat., Jan. 1
12:30 p.m. Gator Jacksonville ACC vs. Big East or Notre Dame Florida State vs. West Virginia
Sat., Jan. 1
1 p.m. Capital One Orlando Big Ten vs. SEC Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Sat., Jan. 1
4:30 p.m. Rose Pasadena, Calif. BCS vs. BCS Michigan vs. California
Sat., Jan. 1
8:30 p.m. Fiesta Tempe, Ariz. BCS vs. BCS Utah vs. Boston College
Mon., Jan. 3
8 p.m. Sugar New Orleans BCS vs. BCS Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)
Tue., Jan. 4
8 p.m. Orange Miami BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2 Southern California vs. Oklahoma

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ ... ctions.htm

[Falconfreak90]

...I saw JD Campbell walking down the steps from the West side press box with the Motor City Bowl rep. I can't remember his last name but I wanna say his first name is Ken?

Hoffman?

Thanks SF....I believe that is his last name.

[TG1996]

I do believe that the teams with a 12 game schedule this year need 7 wins to become bowl elligible.

that's true, but I wonder if there's an exemption for WAC schools that HAVE to have Hawaii on their schedule (which is where the 7 game rule comes in for MSU, Northwestern, etc.)

[Schadenfreude]

I do believe that the teams with a 12 game schedule this year need 7 wins to become bowl elligible.

that's true, but I wonder if there's an exemption for WAC schools that HAVE to have Hawaii on their schedule (which is where the 7 game rule comes in for MSU, Northwestern, etc.)

I don't think so. One of the West Virginia papers was pretty sweeping about the > .500 rule today.