BG in the drivers seat?

[Schadenfreude]

We still need help winning the division, but we look like we are in very good shape when it comes to possibly earning an invitation to a bowl game.

In fact, by the looks of things, nine wins makes us an absolute lock, because only one other MAC team is even mathematically capable of getting nine wins at this point -- and, at 5-3, Ball State isn't gonna get that done, not with trips to Illinois and Indiana planned these next two weeks.

I think eight wins would probably earn the Falcons a bowl game.

And seven wins might be enough.

Remember that there are only two ways for a team with less than a winning record to play in a bowl game:

1. Finish .500 in a conference with bowl obligations and no other team available in the conference to fill them.
2. Win the conference championship. The NCAA historically has granted permission for league champions with less than a winning record play in a bowl game. This is how North Texas ended up in the New Orleans bowl a couple years back at 5-6.

Otherwise, seven wins is the magic number -- 7-5, to be precise.

And with medocrity reigning supreme this year in the MAC, a lot of teams will fall short of seven wins. Probably most of them.

In fact, it may come down to three-to-five MAC teams having the magic seven wins needed for bowl consideration.

I like the Falcons' chances of being in that group. They need to win three out of the next five games (against Ohio, Akron, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo and Toledo) to lock in a winning 7-5 record.

Getting that done is no gimmie. The Falcons will need to earn it every week.

But winning three out of five, against that schedule, looks easier than the challenge faced by most of the rest of the league right now. Here's a run down, roughly ordered by the chance they have to get to seven wins:

Best shots:

Central Michigan (4-4): Needs to win three out of next four: at Kent State, at Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, at Akron
Ball State (5-3): Needs to win two out of next four: at Illinois, at Indiana, Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Miami (4-4): Needs to win three out of next four: at Vanderbilt, Buffalo, Akron, at Ohio.
Akron (3-4): Needs to win four out of next five: at Buffalo, at Bowling Green, Ohio, at Miami, Central Michigan.

On the ropes:

Buffalo (3-5): Needs to win next four: Akron, at Miami, Bowling Green, Kent State
Toledo (3-5): Needs to win next four: Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, at Ball State, at Bowling Green
Kent State (3-5): Needs to win next four: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Temple, at Buffalo
Ohio (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Bowling Green, Temple, at Akron, Miami.
Western Michigan (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, at Iowa, Temple.
Temple (3-5): Needs to win next four: at Ohio, Penn State, Kent State, at Western Michigan.

Stick a fork in ‘em:

Eastern Michigan (2-6)
Northern Illinois (1-7)

Note: The above records include I-AA wins, one of which may be counted toward bowl eligibility as long as the opponent is essentially using the maximum number of football scholarships available in I-AA. I don't know for a fact that wins over Liberty (Toledo) and Delaware State (Kent State) may be counted.

Anyway, you get the idea.

I'm curious what you all think.

[Globetrotter]

I think I am glad you did this and a weekly update would be great. It will give me more reason to watch the MAC scoreboards

[The Niz]

The only game on the rest of the schedule that worries me is Buffalo. Freak's been saying it all along, watch out for the Bulls! I really really really wish that the Buffalo game was in the Doyt, I think that could give us a big advantage at the end of the season with a possible MAC championship on the line.

[Globetrotter]

Can we get to a Bowl Game and still get a new coach?

[SicSic80]

Schad,
First off - very well done. I as well would like to suggest weekly updates so as to encourage myself to keep tabs on what the rest of the conference is doing.
Secondly - who amongst us; at the start of this season (and especially after the conclusion of the last) honestly thought we would be sitting in front of our monitors contemplating post-season travel plans? I for one did not. Now I know that nothing is given, however based on Schad's research, it does look very promising and for that, all I can say is:



Bless you boys!!!(Old school Detroit Tiger's passion still lives )

[Schadenfreude]

I will update this.

Incidentally, schools that need asterisks next to their records include:

-- Ohio: They beat Gardner-Webb. No idea how many scholarships Gardner-Webb uses.
-- Western Michigan: They beat Central Connecticut State. Same question.
-- Toledo: They beat Liberty. Same question.
-- Kent State: Delaware State.

[Dr. Reality]

I'm totally impressed with your analysis, Shadenfreude, --- you've really done your homework. Good source of info for me. Thanks.

[Flipper]

Can we get to a Bowl Game and still get a new coach?

Yes...if another program comes in and hires Brandon away

. Folks like to bitch about last year a lot , but you look at where Toledo has been last year and this year so far and where NIU is right now, not to mention the hard times Miami has been through over the past couple of years, 4-8 really doesn't seem quite as bad...

[JohnnySwoop '85]

First off, there will be no game more important than the one that is being played right in front of you. If we are so fortunate to win out, then I can see contending at the very least for the 3rd MAC invite (assumes Miami and Central stay on pace).

Scoreboard watching on those two plus Ball State and Buffalo would be the other ones. Good thing is that Buffalo does play Miami. Central looks like they can make it through, Ball state will be hampered by two Big 10 games coming up.

But again, the team just needs to keep winning. No game less important than the other. Sure, the Buffalo game looks huge, but dropping any of the others given that they are to "lesser" teams is sure to derail any chance of clicking on Orbitz, Expedia or Travelocity in about 6 weeks time.

Stay the course
Show up
How exactly does one get to Ypsilanti?

[Zom]

Yes, this weekend I am almost as interested in the Akron/Buffalo game as I am Ohio/BG.

[The Niz]

How exactly does one get to Ypsilanti?

23 North goes almost directly to it if I recall correctly.

[Class of 61]

Before we start worrying about travel plans to bowl games, I think we need to learn to put OUR focus (just as the team does) into THIS WEEK"S opponent. If we don't do this, we'll be sitting on the outside looking at the other schools traveling.
That said, I like our chances a HELL of a lot better than I did TWO weeks ago.

[Flipper]

How exactly does one get to Ypsilanti?

23 North goes almost directly to it if I recall correctly.

Yes...it does. Exit 30...something....

[h2oville rocket]

Double exit-west to Ann Arbor East to Ypsi. The Ypsi ramp is first.

[Falconfreak90]

Good stuff, Schade. Great analysis.

I'm with Class of 61 on this, though. Nothing is guaranteed and we need to look at the next opponent...and the next one only. If we lay an egg, all this talk will go out the door.

And I also agree with Flipper...why this talk about a new coach again? Sheese. UT is in a whole lotta trouble and NIU? What the heck happened to them? Those two are dead as far as the MAC title is concerned.

I will be at EMU and Buffalo...watch the Bulls! I am not missing another game. It was hard missing MN...but not BC. Too bad I didn't miss Miami.

BEAT OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!! GO FALCONS!!