The season is not over.

San Fran Falcon · Post by **San Fran Falcon** » Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:48 pm

Can we just beat EMU first? It seems like after every win, we all sit here and hatch out the latest scenarios to win the East. Then, after all the speculation the team goes out and loses. I'm being a bit superstitious, but let's not worry about this.

doughash · Post by **doughash** » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:33 pm

BG is pretty much out of the East race. Their best chance for a bowl bid is for them to win 2 of the last 3 and for the MAC East champ to go into the MAC Championship game at 6-6 and then lose that game, making them ineligible for a bowl game. That would make Central, Ball St., and BG the 3 MAC bowl reps.

Schadenfreude · Post by **Schadenfreude** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:43 am

Another update, in light of Saturday's results.

Again, no MAC team has yet won seven games, which is what it takes to qualify for a bowl game without winning a league championship. Here's the outlook:

Must win two out of the next three:

Central Michigan (5-4): at Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, at Akron
Bowling Green (5-4): at Eastern Michigan, at Buffalo, Toledo.

Must win next two:

Ball State (5-5): Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Ohio * (5-5): at Akron, Miami.
Miami (5-5): Akron, at Ohio.
Toledo * (5-5): at Ball State, at Bowling Green

Doomed, unless they win the MAC title:

Buffalo (4-6): Bowling Green, at Kent State
Kent State (3-6)
Eastern Michigan (3-7)
Western Michigan (3-6)
Akron (3-6)
Temple (3-6)
Northern Illinois (1-8)

* One of Ohio's wins came against Gardner-Webb and one of Toledo's wins came against Liberty. By NCAA rule, whether those wins may be counted toward bowl eligibility comes down to the average number of scholarships these I-AA programs have used over the past few years. This list assumes these wins count toward bowl eligiblity, but I don't claim to know for sure.

kdog27 · Post by **kdog27** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:01 am

San Fran Falcon wrote:Can we just beat EMU first? It seems like after every win, we all sit here and hatch out the latest scenarios to win the East. Then, after all the speculation the team goes out and loses. I'm being a bit superstitious, but let's not worry about this.

I hear ya. We are so up and down. Just to see us win two in a row would be great.

tiznow · Post by **tiznow** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 12:31 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:Another update, in light of Saturday's results.

Again, no MAC team has yet won seven games, which is what it takes to qualify for a bowl game without winning a league championship. Here's the outlook:

Must win two out of the next three:

Central Michigan (5-4): at Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, at Akron
Bowling Green (5-4): at Eastern Michigan, at Buffalo, Toledo.

Must win next two:

Ball State (5-5): Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Ohio * (5-5): at Akron, Miami.
Miami (5-5): Akron, at Ohio.
Toledo * (5-5): at Ball State, at Bowling Green

Doomed, unless they win the MAC title:

Buffalo (4-6): Bowling Green, at Kent State
Kent State (3-6)
Eastern Michigan (3-7)
Western Michigan (3-6)
Akron (3-6)
Temple (3-6)
Northern Illinois (1-8)

* One of Ohio's wins came against Gardner-Webb and one of Toledo's wins came against Liberty. By NCAA rule, whether those wins may be counted toward bowl eligibility comes down to the average number of scholarships these I-AA programs have used over the past few years. This list assumes these wins count toward bowl eligiblity, but I don't claim to know for sure.

The NFL would be proud of the parity in the MAC.

Schadenfreude · Post by **Schadenfreude** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:26 am

Doug Zaleski of the Muncie Star-Press likes the spot Bowling Green is in:

A week ago, Ball State's football team was in a desirable position. The Cardinals were one of just three Mid-American Conference teams that could win eight games this season, giving them a good chance to earn one of the league's three bowl bids.

The only other teams that could boast a similar claim were Central Michigan and Bowling Green. Since either the Chippewas or Cardinals were the likely West Division champions, that meant the third bowl spot could come down to Ball State and Bowling Green.

But Ball State's 38-20 loss on Saturday at Indiana has significantly changed the MAC's bowl picture. The Cardinals' defeat kept them stuck on five victories and allowed four other teams to catch them in the win column.

Now only Central Michigan and Bowling Green can win eight games, and they control their destinies.

Also:

-- four is the maximum number of MAC teams capable of having winning regular seaons. The Ball State-Toledo and Miami-Ohio games will be knock out games.
-- Toledo and Ohio fans say their wins over Liberty and Gardner-Webb do count toward bowl eligibility.

Zom · Post by **Zom** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:46 am

The chance of 8 wins feels a lot better than 8 losses.

Falconfreak90 · Post by **Falconfreak90** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:27 am

Zom wrote:The chance of 8 wins feels a lot better than 8 losses.

AMEN TO THAT!!!

NWLB · Post by **NWLB** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:37 pm

True, now if they could only win the MAC.

Schadenfreude · Post by **Schadenfreude** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:12 pm

It's down to about five MAC teams in the bowl hunt.

Bottom line: If Toledo beats Ball State this weekend, Bowling Green would be in the drivers seat. They would need two wins, one of them against Toledo, to lock down a bowl bid.

This is what MAC teams need to do to get seven wins and be fully eligible for a bowl game.

Win one out of the next three:

Central Michigan (6-4): Eastern Michigan, Akron, versus MAC East champion in Detroit

Win two out of the next three:

Bowling Green (5-4): at Eastern Michigan, at Buffalo, Toledo.

Win each of the next two:

Ball State (5-5): Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Miami (5-5): Akron, at Ohio.
Toledo (5-5): at Ball State, at Bowling Green

Doomed, unless they win the MAC title:

Buffalo (4-6)

Doomed, period:

Ohio (5-6)
Akron (4-6)
Kent State (3-6)
Eastern Michigan (3-7)
Western Michigan (3-7)
Temple (3-6)
Northern Illinois (1-8)

The Niz · Post by **The Niz** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:31 pm

I for one am glad to see the huskies doing so poor. If it weren't for them we probably would have been in the M.A.C. championship game in "04. Then again, if we would have beat slUT we probably would have been there also.

Schadenfreude · Post by **Schadenfreude** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:20 am

Figured I'd do another update.

I've tended to be fatalistic about this. My working assumption has been, if Bowling Green gets to seven wins and there are more seven-win teams than bowl games to go around, we may be in a dicey position. Our Falcons have been hot and cold, and we've already gotten demolished by one of the other potential seven-win teams, Miami, which controls its destiny in the East.

But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that, with a win in Buffalo next week, the GMAC Bowl would extend us an invitation almost immediately.

If the Falcons were to win Friday night, they would be the only seven-win team in the conference except for, potentially, Central Michigan, which would also have seven if they beat Eastern Michigan next Friday.

I've gotta think the Motor City Bowl wants Central Michigan and will invite them as soon as they get that seventh win. It isn't clear to me whether the GMAC has first pick or not, but I do think they'd be fine with ceding Central Michigan to the Motor City.

That would leave the rest of the league for the GMAC to choose from.

The advantage to grabbing a team early is that it gives fans more time to make travel plans and buy tickets.

Also, while the Falcons have been hot and cold, they do have a solid offense that puts up points, and that may appeal to Mobile organizers. In fact, from that perspective, our leaky defense may also be a selling point.

If the GMAC were to make a pick next weekend, that would still leave the International Bowl available for Miami (should they win the division and get to seven wins). Or, if Miami were to fall short, then the winner of the Toledo/Ball State game would be available for Toronto if they get to seven wins.

I'm not saying what I've outlined will happen. But I wouldn't be shocked, either.

Anyway, here's an update on what teams need to do to get to seven wins and have a bit more bowl security:

Win one out of the next three:

Central Michigan (6-4): Eastern Michigan, Akron, versus MAC East champion in Detroit

Win one out of the next two:

Bowling Green (6-4): at Buffalo, Toledo.

Win each of the next two, or win one out of the next two and win in Detroit:

Miami (5-5): Akron, at Ohio

Win each of the next two:

Ball State (5-5): Toledo, at Northern Illinois
Toledo (5-5): at Ball State, at Bowling Green

Doomed, unless they win the MAC title:

Buffalo (4-6)

Doomed, period:

Ohio (5-6)
Akron (4-6)
Kent State (3-6)
Eastern Michigan (3-8]
Western Michigan (3-7)
Temple (3-6)
Northern Illinois (1-8]

SicSic80 · Post by **SicSic80** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:39 am

Once again, well done Schad and thanks very much for the update. Rather than go through each and every scenario in nauseating detail, suffice it to say that, in my minds eye, we "must" root for TU. Lord, it pains me to say that, however with the way I see the other games panning out, that V will help our Falcons the most in getting to he post-season.

Go

Rockets

theziggies · Post by **theziggies** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:57 am

I actually disagree about rooting for Toledo. I think if the two non-division champion teams that finish 7-5 are Ball State and Bowling Green, the nod goes to Bowling Green. If Toledo wins its last 2 and both UT and BG finish 7-5, the Rockets might have the edge. So, root for Ball State on Tuesday.

I also think there's zero chance the GMAC Bowl passes out its bid before the regular season is over.

TG1996 · Post by **TG1996** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:57 am

SicSic80 wrote:Once again, well done Schad and thanks very much for the update. Rather than go through each and every scenario in nauseating detail, suffice it to say that, in my minds eye, we "must" root for TU. Lord, it pains me to say that, however with the way I see the other games panning out, that V will help our Falcons the most in getting to he post-season.

Go Rockets

Crap. I knew that scenario made the most sense to me. I guess my mind just blocked it out.

But you're right. Since we probably can't count on NIU beating an egg at this point, Toledo beating Ball State is a plus for us, as long as we can take care of business on the 23rd.